E.N.S.O. Discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

Still recorded mean easterlies in April near the dateline. 

To compare to our analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

2023: +0.5

 

1985: +0.8

1986: +0.4

2001: +0.6

2002: +0.2

2009: +0.5

2012: +0.6

2014: 0.0

2018: +0.7

 

Middle of the road then in terms of pace development. 1997 and 1983 already had mean westerlies and so were coupling to the atmosphere much better. 

 

1985: Coupled from October, did not product Nino

1986: Sustained from July, Nino from September (moderate)

2001: Did not couple sustainably, did not produce Nino. 

2002: Coupled between May-Oct, Nino from June (Moderate)

2009: Coupled from May, Nino from July (strong)

2012: Did not couple sustainably, did not produce Nino. 

2014: Coupled in July, Nino from October (weak)

2018: Coupled between Aug-Nov, Nino from Sept (weak)

 

So if we get rid of 1985, 2001 and 2012 for failing to produce an event then it looks like our post-79 set all coupled between May-August and generally, the earlier, the stronger. 

 

 

Ties in with the 2 analogue years I got from my ENSO outcomes based on historical PDO data then although you haven't mentioned 1972 but 2009 is there and coincidentally +0.5 just so happens to be the same as that year at the same stage.

Since it is also looking like we'll be going into an EQBO in the next few months then 2 boxes ticked that we did in 2009 so increases the chances of a cold blocked winter like that one for 2023/24

The only problem we have now is high solar activity compared with 2009 that could scupper our chances of a cold winter.

[Don]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The only problem we have now is high solar activity compared with 2009 that could scupper our chances of a cold winter.

Always something these days to scupper the chance of a cold winter!

[summer blizzard]

Latest Euro forecast vs April still goes strong. Warms a little faster but is flatter over the summer. 

Also as a note of caution i borrowed this from Twitter (credit to another poster on americanwx).

[SqueakheartLW]

Looks like both CFS and ECM are still going for strong or super El Nino events but there is that feeling that they could both be overdoing it but since they both appear to agree with each other makes me feel that this could end up a strong or super El Nino event.

CFS and ECM

Nino 4                                                       Nino 3.4                                                    Nino 3

 

Nino 1+2

Getting monthly anomalies based on these graphs

Now getting a monthly mean is relatively simple with CFS as they very kindly stick an average line on their charts but the ECM ones are a rough guess based on what can be seen and may not be totally correct but shouldn't be that far out.

Below I have created a table comparing both sets of charts from each model for each NINO region between now and November 2023. The peak anomaly in each region is highlighted in bold

Region                     May          June          July          Aug          Sep          Oct          Nov

NINO 4 CFS            +0.4C        +0.7C        +1.1C      +1.4C       +1.7C      +1.9C      +1.7C

NINO 4 ECM           +0.5C        +0.8C        +1.0C      +1.2C      +1.3C       +1.5C      +1.7C

NINO 3.4 CFS         +0.5C         +1.1C       +1.6C      +1.8C       +2.1C      +2.3C      +2.6C

NINO 3.4 ECM        +0.6C        +1.0C        +1.5C      +1.6C       +1.7C      +1.9C      +2.0C

NINO 3 CFS             +1.0C        +1.5C       +2.0C      +2.2C       +2.2C      +2.2C      +2.3C

NINO 3 ECM           +1.2C        +1.8C        +2.2C      +2.3C       +2.2C      +2.2C      +2.3C

NINO1+2 CFS         +2.5C        +2.3C        +2.3C      +2.1C       +1.7C      +1.6C      +1.6C

NINO1+2 ECM        +2.8C        +3.0C        +3.2C      +3.0C       +2.8C      +2.3C      +2.4C

Predicted Type        EP              EP             EP            EP            EP        Mixed    Mixed

 

Both models think we are going to be into El Nino during this month at some stage, the ECM slightly more keen to do this than the CFS. After this the event just takes off if these predictions are correct.

In region 3.4 the CFS gets us to super Nino territory by September but the ECM only just scrapes us there by November which would suggest a strong rather than super event predicted by ECM

What is of interest here is that both models start with an EP El Nino but then diverge later on. ECM sticks with an EP event throughout but only really gets it to strong El Nino territory.

The CFS is interesting here in this update in what it does with this event for those wanting a colder winter for 2023/24. It peaks the event at +2.6C in region 3.4 but note that CFS is going for something which hasn't been seen in recorded El Nino history, a Super CP El Nino with +2.6C in region 3.4 vs only +1.6C in region 1+2 and even region 4 is predicted to have warmer anomalies than 1+2.

A Super CP El Nino is uncharted territory here and I do wonder what effect that would have on the winter in the UK if this came off. Could it be 2009/10 on steroids meaning a 1962/63 repeat perhaps?

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

A Super CP El Nino is uncharted territory here and I do wonder what effect that would have on the winter in the UK if this came off. Could it be 2009/10 on steroids meaning a 1962/63 repeat perhaps?

I doubt it but would certainly be interesting to say the least!  However, if the ECM forecast comes off it would be bad news for cold winter lovers, as anything more than moderate is not good.

[damianslaw]

May be wrong but sense recent ENSO predictions for strong strength events have fallen flat. My hunch is predictions for super strength are being overdone. Could be wrong.

[summer blizzard]

On 04/04/2023 at 18:10, summer blizzard said:

Looking at Y1 Nino events following at least a second year event we have. 

For interest i added their JFM ONI to see where we rank. 

1957: +0.1

1972: -0.4

1976: -1.2

1986: -0.5

2002: 0

2009: -0.8

2014: -0.5

2018: -0.9

So our -0.4 is narrowly joint 3rd.

However the years which follow at least a double Nina and flop are..

1956: -0.8

1985: -0.8

2001: -0.5

2012: -0.7

*You can see that the events of 1957, 1986 and 2002 took a long protracted course of neutral before producing the Nino event. The same can also be said for 2012 to 2014. 

..

So we can see here that Nino is favoured with about a 2 to 1 margin over cold-neutral but that at this time of year there's not much difference between those that flop and those that develop although we currently sit in the camp favouring Nino development. In terms of strength about 50% of our 12 analogues currently go at least moderate with 33% in the cold-neutral camp and 76/18 being the anomolies.  

Also of interest is the fact that 1972 and 2009 despite producting Nino events of reasonable strength, barely lasted a year and went straight back to robust multi-year Nina events so the jury on late 2024 if one does develop this year is still out. 

The Q2 (AMJ) ONI tri-monthly value appears to be where the two packs split with a majority of our Nino pack at 0 or above by this point so i would wait until then before getting overly excited. 

 

Our updated list for FMA.

1957: +0.4

1972: +0.1

1976: -0.7

1986: -0.3

2002: +0.1

2009: -0.6

2014: -0.3

2018: -0.7

 

1956: -0.6

1985: -0.8

2001: -0.4

2012: -0.6

 

2023: -0.2

We were third highest last month. We have dropped to 4th this month meaning that 2009 becomes our peak at +1.6.

[summer blizzard]

03MAY2022: Nino3: 0.8 , Nino3.4: 0.4 , Nino4: 0.3

[summer blizzard]

Updated forecasts (credit to Twitter and Americanwx). 

Which all look great except that Bluewave on AmericanWx has pointed out that we are lagging other Nino with high 1.2 values (stayed above 2.0 for 7 weeks but 3.4 only recorded 0.4 while in 97 and 2015 and 1972 they were all above 0.9 in 3.4). 

As others have allued to elsewhere, it looks like the warmth in the West Pacific is keeping forcing away from the dateline preventing significant strengthening. Indeed the standing wave originally forecast to form over the dateline by months end is now forecast to be producing trades over the dateline (prevening development away from the east).

[johnholmes]

This from NOAA

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[summer blizzard]

Matt Hugo posted the updated long Euro forecast in the model thread (i also included the prior).

[sebastiaan1973]

El Nino 2023-2024 - Page 23 - Weather Forecasting and Discussion - American Weather

WWW.AMERICANWX.COM

An interesting comparison. 

[sebastiaan1973]

Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases (nsf.gov)

https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10137612

Sci-Hub | A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts. Climate Dynamics | 10.1007/s00382-017-3777-8

https://sci-hub.ru/10.1007/s00382-017-3777-8

Frontiers | Prediction Challenges From Errors in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends (frontiersin.org)

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.837483/full

El Niño rapidly developing, could be "significant" event, NOAA warns (axios.com)

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/11/el-nino-potentially-strong-noaa-warns

[Don]

5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases (nsf.gov)

https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10137612

Sci-Hub | A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts. Climate Dynamics | 10.1007/s00382-017-3777-8

https://sci-hub.ru/10.1007/s00382-017-3777-8

Frontiers | Prediction Challenges From Errors in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends (frontiersin.org)

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.837483/full

El Niño rapidly developing, could be "significant" event, NOAA warns (axios.com)

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/11/el-nino-potentially-strong-noaa-warns

Coldies had better hope the El Nino develops into a Modoki event, otherwise it will be a case of booking a holiday overseas to get their snow fix next winter!

[SqueakheartLW]

7 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

El Nino 2023-2024 - Page 23 - Weather Forecasting and Discussion - American Weather

WWW.AMERICANWX.COM

An interesting comparison. 

Think 1972/73 and 1991/92 are strong El Nino events, not super El Nino events but the main comparisons that should really be done are EP El Nino vs CP El Nino.

EP El Nino

Note the general below average heights to our north and above average heights to the south during the winter months with an EP El Nino in force. A mild pattern looks to be favoured with EP El Nino's

CP El Nino

Much more interesting for cold winter lovers with the CP El Nino years with above average heights to the north and below average heights to the south. A chance of something colder here at least.

 

Now I could divide this up further with strength of EL Nino as well as positioning of the warmest anomalies

Weak El Nino (All years)                         Weak El Nino (EP Events)                      Weak El Nino (CP Events)

Weak El Nino (All years) - It would seem overall that a weak El Nino is a good signal for a colder winter with blocking to the north but the signal isn't all that strong and a few of the weak El Nino years are in fact mild winters like 2006/07 for example and 2004/05 as well.

Weak El Nino (EP Events) - These look worse than the overall average for weak El Nino events as a whole for cold winters and it is probably to be expected based on the EP vs CP anomalies above this section.

Weak El Nino (CP Events) - A slightly stronger signal for cold here but as before still not that strong. Maybe the fact that these are weak El Nino's means the forcing from El Nino isn't that strong so other factors can be more dominant.

Moderate El Nino (All years - CP Events)

One curious thing I noticed here was how every single moderate El Nino post 1948 was a CP event and there were no Moderate EP El Nino's at all.

As for the anomalies a clear signal for northern blocking here with the placement of it crucial to the outcome of that winter. In 2009/10 and 1986/87 it was in a good position for cold whilst 1994/95 was not so good and probably west based -NAO leaving the UK in the firing line for a mild winter.

Strong El Nino (All years)                       Strong El Nino (EP Events)                    Strong El Nino (CP Events)

Not many years to go on here as we only have 3 strong El Nino events between 1948 and now but one clear signal with both EP and CP events is that strong El Nino's favour a lot of ridging close to the UK with the EP event of 1972/73 favouring a milder more zonal ridge with the core of the heights further to our east compared with the CP years (1987/88 and 1991/92) where the ridging is more over the UK. This would very likely mean the CP years end up colder due to increased chances of frosts pulling the CET down a bit.

Super El Nino (All years - EP Events)

As with the strong El Nino events before this we have very few years to choose from for the Super El Nino events and all of them are EP based as well.

A horror show chart here for cold winter lovers with that long fetch SW flow the average mean for these years. Hope the event developing this year doesn't go super or winter is finished if this mean holds true once again.

Summary

Out of all the years it seems that CP El Nino's are better than EP ones and is also seems we need to keep the event weak or even better moderate to give us a shot at a colder winter. If we go strong it seems we get a high pressure bore fest and super means mild wet washout.

[summer blizzard]

2010 peaked at 1.6 and 73 at 2.1 so they should be moved.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting the CFS is predicting a strong Nino but also projects a very robust cold winter precursor pattern for November, the chart is VERY 2009

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd6.gif

It’s of interest because it’ll be incorporating the forecast strong Nino when producing the above anomaly chart.

Edited May 13, 2023 by CreweCold

[SqueakheartLW]

40 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Interesting the CFS is predicting a strong Nino but also projects a very robust cold winter precursor pattern for November, the chart is VERY 2009

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd6.gif

It’s of interest because it’ll be incorporating the forecast strong Nino when producing the above anomaly chart.

Could be due to the prediction of a CP El Nino event

Region 3.4 warmer than 1+2

[Cheshire Freeze]

25 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Could be due to the prediction of a CP El Nino event

Region 3.4 warmer than 1+2

Makes sense as the Nov anomaly is pretty much bang on Nov 2009 and that winter featured a Modoki Nino.

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Makes sense as the Nov anomaly is pretty much bang on Nov 2009 and that winter featured a Modoki Nino.

All us coldies can do at this stage is keep everything crossed!

[SqueakheartLW]

19 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Makes sense as the Nov anomaly is pretty much bang on Nov 2009 and that winter featured a Modoki Nino.

 

18 hours ago, Don said:

All us coldies can do at this stage is keep everything crossed!

Out of interest the CFS is also going for a tripole in the N Atlantic in November 2023 too

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Out of interest the CFS is also going for a tripole in the N Atlantic in November 2023 too

Ooh shades of 2009.. incidentally I am getting pangs of 2009 about things now - summer wise at least. Nov 09 was excessively wet though and very mild, a less wet version would be fine followed by another winter 09-10 re-run, what a winter for cold and snow! 2009 was a very variable interesting year weatherwise, 2010 even more so for continental and high lattitude block influence.

Edited May 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Out of interest the CFS is also going for a tripole in the N Atlantic in November 2023 too

The North Atlantic currently looks like being close to a tripole to me, too?  This is interesting, considering the theory that a tripole in May is a sign of a negative NAO for the following winter!

[summer blizzard]

Certainly doubting the strong Nino forecasts currently. Models don’t suggest the current WWB will do much outside the west Pacific so the main Nino zones get scraps (enough for a weak event). There’s another significant wave forecast from mid June but we can’t keep delaying ad infinitum.

[blizzard81]

19 hours ago, Don said:

The North Atlantic currently looks like being close to a tripole to me, too?  This is interesting, considering the theory that a tripole in May is a sign of a negative NAO for the following winter!

Spot on Don. Something I have spotted over the last few weeks. The Meto used to put great emphasis on this when issuing early winter forecast thoughts. It gives reason for optimism imo.