E.N.S.O. Discussion

[summer blizzard]

09NOV2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -0.9

[summer blizzard]

16NOV2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.9

[summer blizzard]

23NOV2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.9

[summer blizzard]

30NOV2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -0.9

ONI for November came in around -0.9.

ONI for SON came in at -1.0.

[summer blizzard]

07DEC2022: Nino3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -0.8

[summer blizzard]

14DEC2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.6

[summer blizzard]

21DEC2022: Nino3: -0.6 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.8

[summer blizzard]

28DEC2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.8

December ONI came in around -0.85.

OND ONI fell to -0.9. 
 

..

In future terms we have a battle similar to that seen in summer, documented in this thread. As per the chart below we now have warm anomolies attempting to surface, especially in the east. But as per the chart below that, we also have raging trade winds attempting to destroy those anomolies (in July as per this thread they basically decimated a +3 warm pool in a month albeit i don't think these are quite as intense). 

Jan 3rd

[summer blizzard]

28DEC2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.8

December ONI came in around -0.85.

OND ONI fell to -0.9. 
 

..

In future terms we have a battle similar to that seen in summer, documented in this thread. As per the chart below we now have warm anomolies attempting to surface, especially in the east. But as per the chart below that, we also have raging trade winds attempting to destroy those anomolies (in July as per this thread they basically decimated a +3 warm pool in a month albeit i don't think these are quite as intense). 

Jan 3rd

[SqueakheartLW]

On 03/01/2023 at 20:37, summer blizzard said:

28DEC2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.8

December ONI came in around -0.85.

OND ONI fell to -0.9. 
 

..

In future terms we have a battle similar to that seen in summer, documented in this thread. As per the chart below we now have warm anomolies attempting to surface, especially in the east. But as per the chart below that, we also have raging trade winds attempting to destroy those anomolies (in July as per this thread they basically decimated a +3 warm pool in a month albeit i don't think these are quite as intense). 

Jan 3rd 192.93 kB · 1 download

Those sub surface anomalies would suggest a chance of a modoki El Nino event later in the year if those raging trades eased off. That patch of warm anomalies in the east has little support whilst the warm anomalies in the west are more substantial.

What is surprising is how stubborn the La Nina setup is at the moment even in a 3rd year event. Have we ever had 4 years of solid La Nina on the trot?

We had a period of cold ENSO or La Nina's between 1870 and 1876 that lasted for at least 6 seasons.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino4.long.anom.data

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino3.long.anom.data

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data

[summer blizzard]

04JAN2022: Nino3: -0.7 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.7

Also note the sub-surface, the trades have generated -2 anomolies in about 10 days. 

[summer blizzard]

11JAN2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.6

[summer blizzard]

Also of note is that we now have -3 anomolies. 

[summer blizzard]

18JAN2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.6

[summer blizzard]

25JAN2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.6

[summer blizzard]

01FEB2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.5 , Nino4: -0.5

[summer blizzard]

Forgot to add.. 

January ONI came in around -0.67, a continued weakening. 

NDJ ONI came in at -0.8. 

MEI came in at -1.1.

Trades continue to roar however the GFS does suggest this MJO wave may have the strength to push to the dateline. 

Sub-surface continues to have a warm ENSO zone unable to surface due to cold sub-surface anomolies in the east. 

 

[summer blizzard]

01FEB2022: Nino3: -0.2 , Nino3.4: -0.5 , Nino4: -0.6

[damianslaw]

Are we now in a ENSO neutral state? This La Nina has gone on for ever! and possibly a reason for the very blocked long dry periods?

[summer blizzard]

15FEB2022: Nino3: -0.1 , Nino3.4: -0.5 , Nino4: -0.6

[summer blizzard]

22FEB2022: Nino3: -0.0 , Nino3.4: -0.3 , Nino4: -0.5

Feb ONI should be around -0.475 so this phase (and probably the event) is just about ending. 

DJF ONI should be around -0.7. 

[summer blizzard]

01MAR2022: Nino3: 0.1 , Nino3.4: -0.2 , Nino4: -0.4

[Hotspur62]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

01MAR2022: Nino3: 0.1 , Nino3.4: -0.2 , Nino4: -0.4

Certainly looks like the dying embers of the 3 year La Niña.If I have read it right it looks like a moderate El Niño going into winter 2023/24 and with an E qbw wonder if that favours chances of a mild average or colder than normal winter for the U.K.?

[Gray-Wolf]

So 'La Nada' it is!

Should current forecasts hold true after the 'spring barrier' then we have a Nino to look forward to come the back end of Summer?

[Don]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So 'La Nada' it is!

Should current forecasts hold true after the 'spring barrier' then we have a Nino to look forward to come the back end of Summer?

Mild winter next year then?!