E.N.S.O. Discussion

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest EC. Seems to me a strong El Nino event in the autumn/ early winter.

[SqueakheartLW]

10 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest EC. Seems to me a strong El Nino event in the autumn/ early winter.

Do they do region 1+2 also. Would like to know if they think we will have a Strong to Super CP El Nino event which would be better for a colder winter 2023/24 than a possible Strong to Super EP El Nino event.

I do wonder however if models are overplaying this since we are going to need quite a rapid climb in the anomalies from where we are now and we appear to be rather stubborn in keeping things at neutral in region 3.4 at present.

Edited April 7, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[summer blizzard]

Euro forecast has no significant wave forecast during April albeit the Indian Ocean still thinks it’s in a Nina pattern.

Unlikely to see much SST movement in 3.4 before May.

[sebastiaan1973]

On 07/04/2023 at 20:17, SqueakheartLW said:

Do they do region 1+2 also. Would like to know if they think we will have a Strong to Super CP El Nino event which would be better for a colder winter 2023/24 than a possible Strong to Super EP El Nino event.

I do wonder however if models are overplaying this since we are going to need quite a rapid climb in the anomalies from where we are now and we appear to be rather stubborn in keeping things at neutral in region 3.4 at present.

Not them I'm aware of. So I searched for something else. See below. August till Oct. Looks to me, basin wide.  

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_ssto?area=GLOB&base_time=202304010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202308020000

Edited April 9, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[SqueakheartLW]

4 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Not them I'm aware of. So I searched for something else. See below. August till Oct. Looks to me, basin wide.  

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_ssto?area=GLOB&base_time=202304010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202308020000

Hope that is wrong. Don't want another Super Nino and a possible repeat of a December 2015 as a result

[SqueakheartLW]

ENSO Status in April vs upcoming ENSO status for following winter

Main theme - Emerging from La Nina previous winter.

Time for me to do a little bit of research to see how ENSO progressed after Aprils with specific conditions following a La Nina the previous winter.

 

1 - ENSO Neutral in April region 3.4

 

When looking through the ENSO records from 1870 to the present time the following years apply to the above category arranged with El Nino the following winter at the top, neutral in the middle and La Nina at the bottom

 

El Nino following winter          10/21          47.619 %
Winter 1971/72 - Weak La Nina        April 1972 - Neutral Warmer        Winter 1972/73 - Strong EP El Nino
Winter 1898/99 - Weak La Nina        April 1899 - Neutral Colder           Winter 1899/00 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1956/57 - Weak La Nina        April 1957 - Neutral Warmer        Winter 1957/58 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1964/65 - Weak La Nina        April 1965 - Neutral                       Winter 1965/66 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 2008/09 - Weak La Nina        April 2009 - Neutral Colder          Winter 2009/10 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1938/39 - Weak La Nina        April 1939 - Neutral Colder          Winter 1939/40 - Weak CP El Nino
Winter 1950/51 - Mod La Nina          April 1951 - Neutral                       Winter 1951/52 - Weak EP El Nino
Winter 1975/76 - Strong La Nina      April 1976 - Neutral Colder          Winter 1976/77 - Weak EP El Nino
Winter 2005/06 - Weak La Nina        April 2006 - Neutral                       Winter 2006/07 - Weak EP El Nino
Winter 2017/18 - Weak La Nina        April 2018 - Neutral Colder          Winter 2018/19 - Weak CP El Nino

ENSO Neutral following winter          7/21          33.333 %
Winter 1894/95 - Weak La Nina        April 1895 - Neutral                     Winter 1895/96 - Neutral Warmer
Winter 1890/91 - Mod La Nina          April 1891 - Neutral                     Winter 1891/92 - Neutral
Winter 2011/12 - Weak La Nina        April 2012 - Neutral Colder        Winter 2012/13 - Neutral
Winter 1882/83 - Weak La Nina        April 1883 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1883/84 - Neutral Colder
Winter 1933/34 - Mod La Nina          April 1934 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1934/35 - Neutral Colder
Winter 1995/96 - Weak La Nina        April 1996 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1996/97 - Neutral Colder
Winter 2000/01 - Weak La Nina        April 2001 - Neutral Colder        Winter 2001/02 - Neutral Colder

La Nina following winter          4/21          19.048 %
Winter 1916/17 - Mod La Nina          April 1917 - Neutral Colder          Winter 1917/18 - Weak EP La Nina
Winter 2016/17 - Weak La Nina        April 2017 - Neutral Warmer        Winter 2017/18 - Weak EP La Nina
Winter 1983/84 - Weak La Nina        April 1984 - Neutral Colder          Winter 1984/85 - Mod EP La Nina
Winter 2020/21 - Mod La Nina          April 2021 - Neutral Colder          Winter 2021/22 - Mod EP La Nina

It would seem that there is statistically quite a good chance of an El Nino the following winter after a previous La Nina one if the ENSO status is neutral in the Aprils. As for how strong the event could be this is a different matter entirely. Using the El Nino outcomes above it would seem a weak or moderate El Nino is most likely if we do transition into one and a CP event is slightly more likely than an EP one.

Since sticking at ENSO Neutral still has a good chance of ending up the outcome we see then it would seem colder neutral is favoured. In the unlikely event we get a 4th year Nina in a row it seems a 100% chance of an EP event and most likely a weak or moderate event too.

2 - ENSO Neutral in May region 3.4

 

As this has been mentioned how we could still very likely be neutral in 3.4 even into May I thought I would include this as well. ENSO status following winter after a neutral May with La Nina previous winter. Under this new category we get the following years, arranged as before with the El Nino outcomes at the top, neutral in the middle and La Nina at the bottom.

Note that many of the below years are also featured above but there are a few new ones too.

 

El Nino following winter          13/27          48.148 %
Winter 1971/72 - Weak La Nina        May 1972 - Neutral Warmer        Winter 1972/73 - Strong EP El Nino
Winter 1898/99 - Weak La Nina        May 1899 - Neutral                        Winter 1899/00 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1917/18 - Weak La Nina        May 1918 - Neutral                        Winter 1918/19 - Mod EP El Nino
Winter 1924/25 - Weak La Nina        May 1925 - Neutral Colder           Winter 1925/26 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1956/57 - Weak La Nina        May 1957 - Neutral Warmer        Winter 1957/58 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1964/65 - Weak La Nina        May 1965 - Neutral                        Winter 1965/66 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 2008/09 - Weak La Nina        May 2009 - Neutral                        Winter 2009/10 - Mod CP El Nino
Winter 1903/04 - Weak La Nina        May 1904 - Neutral Colder           Winter 1904/05 - Weak CP El Nino
Winter 1938/39 - Weak La Nina        May 1939 - Neutral Colder           Winter 1939/40 - Weak CP El Nino
Winter 1950/51 - Mod La Nina          May 1951 - Neutral                        Winter 1951/52 - Weak EP El Nino
Winter 1975/76 - Strong La Nina      May 1976 - Neutral Colder            Winter 1976/77 - Weak EP El Nino
Winter 2005/06 - Weak La Nina        May 2006 - Neutral                        Winter 2006/07 - Weak EP El Nino
Winter 2017/18 - Weak La Nina        May 2018 - Neutral                        Winter 2018/19 - Weak CP El Nino

ENSO Neutral following winter          9/27          33.333 %
Winter 1894/95 - Weak La Nina        May 1895 - Neutral                     Winter 1895/96 - Neutral Warmer
Winter 1882/83 - Weak La Nina        May 1883 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1883/84 - Neutral
Winter 2011/12 - Weak La Nina        May 2012 - Neutral                     Winter 2012/13 - Neutral
Winter 1890/91 - Mod La Nina          May 1891 - Neutral                     Winter 1891/92 - Neutral Colder
Winter 1906/07 - Weak La Nina        May 1907 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1907/08 - Neutral Colder
Winter 1933/34 - Mod La Nina         May 1934 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1934/35 - Neutral Colder
Winter 1942/43 - Mod La Nina         May 1943 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1943/44 - Neutral Colder
Winter 1995/96 - Weak La Nina        May 1996 - Neutral Colder        Winter 1996/97 - Neutral Colder
Winter 2000/01 - Weak La Nina        May 2001 - Neutral Colder        Winter 2001/02 - Neutral Colder

La Nina following winter          5/27          18.519 %
Winter 1916/17 - Mod La Nina            May 1917 - Neutral Colder          Winter 1917/18 - Weak EP La Nina
Winter 2010/11 - Strong La Nina        May 2011 - Neutral Colder          Winter 2011/12 - Weak CP La Nina
Winter 2016/17 - Weak La Nina          May 2017 - Neutral Warmer        Winter 2017/18 - Weak EP La Nina
Winter 1983/84 - Weak La Nina          May 1984 - Neutral Colder          Winter 1984/85 - Mod EP La Nina
Winter 2020/21 - Mod La Nina            May 2021 - Neutral Colder          Winter 2021/22 - Mod EP La Nina

It would seem that neutral Mays make no difference to the chances of each outcome the following winter with El Nino still the favoured outcome.

 

Table of probabilities based on the above after ENSO Neutral Aprils and Mays following a La Nina winter

 

Now time for me to put all of the above into a table format so each month can be directly compared as well as the chances of each ENSO outcome the following winter as well as strength and type too.

 

                           ENSO Main Outcome              Chances of each strength            Chances of type
MONTH             ENSO status ENSO chance     Weak       Moderate  Strong         CP Event  EP Event

Neutral April     EL Nino         47.619 %            50.000 %  40.000 %  10.000 %     60.000 %  40.000 %
Neutral May      EL Nino         48.148 %            46.154 %  46.154 %   7.692 %      61.538 %  38.462 %

Neutral April     Neutral         33.333 %                 x                  x               x                   x                 x
Neutral May      Neutral         33.333 %                 x                  x               x                   x                 x

Neutral April     La Nina         19.048 %            50.000 %  50.000 %   0.000 %         0.000 %  100.000 %
Neutral May      La Nina         18.519 %            60.000 %  40.000 %   0.000 %       20.000 %   80.000 %

 

Summary

Based on the above I would consider the current predictions of a runaway Super El Nino event a bit over the top and would expect a more likely moderate event to develop with a CP event more favoured over an EP one. I think they are overreacting to the current very warm anomalies in region 1+2 and jumping to the Super Nino conclusion too quickly.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The margins between a Modoki weak-moderate and basin wide strong will have a huge bearing on what type of winter we see. Two polar opposite outcomes, if you'll excuse the pun.

[Don]

21 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The margins between a Modoki weak-moderate and basin wide strong will have a huge bearing on what type of winter we see. Two polar opposite outcomes, if you'll excuse the pun.

Agreed and one outcome will most certainly NOT be polar!! 

Edited April 10, 2023 by Don

[kold weather]

On 09/04/2023 at 18:21, SqueakheartLW said:

Hope that is wrong. Don't want another Super Nino and a possible repeat of a December 2015 as a result

The models are notably going stronger as the enso regions warmed considerably more than predicted in the March forecast (right at the top end of forecast) which has shunted up the forecast from April considerably.

ECM ensembles are impressive for sure though, not a single ensemble member below 1.1c (technically 1.06) and a large number are strong or super strong.

I fear it will over ride any other good possibilities this winter.

[daz_4]

 

Quite a warm up in the last few days in Niňo 1+2.

Edited April 11, 2023 by daz_4

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, daz_4 said:

 

Quite a warm up in the last few days in Niňo 1+2.

What does mean in the long term? Super EI Nino?

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What does mean in the long term? Super EI Nino?

Its currently running pretty hot. Current temperatures there have been nearly matched or beaten in three different El nino events since the start of the 80s. 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16. all three could be classed as super El Ninos breaching the 2c bracket.

[sundog]

Can I post the first winter is over post? 

[RJBingham]

39 minutes ago, sundog said:

Can I post the first winter is over post? 

I'd wait until winter 22/23 is over! 

[Derecho]

An east based El Nino I don't think is very good for our winter prospects. El Nino winters tend to be very mild in the first half and zonal.

If this El Nino is to become yet another big one expect the global temperature record to possibly be beaten this year and then by a bigger margin next year.

We won't know how exactly this El Nino will play out till later this year. I wouldn't be surprised if its another strong one with a quiet North Atlantic hurricane season looking likely.

[sundog]

Could summer 2024 see a 50c recorded in Europe? Wouldn't be surprised, as the heat will likely go up an extra notch.

[Don]

4 hours ago, sundog said:

Can I post the first winter is over post? 

If a strong basin wide El Nino develops, yes you can post winter is over!!

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

If this El Nino is to become yet another big one expect the global temperature record to possibly be beaten this year and then by a bigger margin next year.

2 hours ago, sundog said:

Could summer 2024 see a 50c recorded in Europe? Wouldn't be surprised, as the heat will likely go up an extra notch.

 

All rather depressing really and a likely rough ride ahead for the world but nowt we can do about it now!!

[damianslaw]

Talk of super el nino etc, I'd be surprised to see one follow not long after the 15-16 one.. there were longer gaps between 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16.

Whilst the first half of the winter's mentioned were either mostly mild or exceptionally mild and often very wet, the second halves offered something colder, notably Feb 83. Admittedly whole of winter 97-98 was mild throughout, and Feb 16 was hardly cold, but it was frosty and nearer average at times. The Springs brought colder weather at times. 

After three very dry calm winter's I would be very surprised to see another dry quiet one, rain could be a strong feature second half of the year, just a feeling, not necessarily mild.

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

After three very dry calm winter's I would be very surprised to see another dry quiet one, rain could be a strong feature second half of the year, just a feeling, not necessarily mild.

Much the same as the last six months then…

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Much the same as the last six months then…

There has been variation in rainfall amounts, we had a very dry 6 week period between mid Jan and late Feb. First half of December was also very dry.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Talk of super el nino etc, I'd be surprised to see one follow not long after the 15-16 one.. there were longer gaps between 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16.

I think the issue we have now is that climate change has potentially shifted the goal posts significantly?!  It will be a concern if we do have a Super Nino this year and I'm not just talking about our winter prospects!

[MP-R]

46 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There has been variation in rainfall amounts, we had a very dry 6 week period between mid Jan and late Feb. First half of December was also very dry.

Sure, but overall, it’s been a wet period. 

[Gray-Wolf]

As we've seen from the record global SST's prior to the onset of Nino our 'Global warming' background means ANY Nino gets a 'leg up' from the background climate

I'm sure a read that the last Super was 'aided & abetted' by things like Summer Arctic heat uptake & the flip in the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation?

The Arctic is still soaking up a small nino's worth of Energy each summer (that needs releasing each autumn before re-freeze?) & we're now well into the 'positive' phase of the PMO....I can only see a 'Super' ahead of us all things considered....

[summer blizzard]

6 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As we've seen from the record global SST's prior to the onset of Nino our 'Global warming' background means ANY Nino gets a 'leg up' from the background climate

I'm sure a read that the last Super was 'aided & abetted' by things like Summer Arctic heat uptake & the flip in the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation?

The Arctic is still soaking up a small nino's worth of Energy each summer (that needs releasing each autumn before re-freeze?) & we're now well into the 'positive' phase of the PMO....I can only see a 'Super' ahead of us all things considered....

The PDO is an important point. The 14-16 event was arguably aided by the fact that the PDO was positive during the event. There are events which have not seen the same coupling of the tropical and extra-tropical atmosphere. There's simply no way to tell at the moment whether the current PDO event will fight or submit. 

- We are actually in a very negative PDO event Gray. Indeed the data indicates that we've basically been in a broader -PDO state since 2006 with only the 14-16 period recording +1 PDO values. You could argue we started this phase in the late 90's.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

99-01 - Negative

02-05 - Neutral/Mixed

06-13 - Negative

14-16 - Positive

20-P - Negative

Edited April 12, 2023 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

05APR2022: Nino3: 0.2 , Nino3.4: 0.0 , Nino4: 0.3