E.N.S.O. Discussion

[raz.org.rain]

 SqueakheartLW if I understand it correctly, isn't that an ideal setup for significant atmospheric blocking through summer much like in 2018?

[Mike Poole]

 raz.org.rain I think it’s more to do with the following winter - a tripole in May can reemerge later the following winter when it might promote colder weather for the UK, all other things being equal.  

Which of course they are not any more!

[summer blizzard]

 SqueakheartLW An above average season is very likely but shear profiles make or break ACE and that might not be extremely high this season. While we have the weak La Niña strengthening (likely) and warm SST’s, we also have a very negative PDO and for some reason this has in some seasons been correlated with an imperfect shear profile.
 

 

[Topclassweatherforecaster]

With La Niña forming and sst being very warm, Summer 2024 will 100% be warmer than normal, maybe slightly wetter than normal. However with hurricane season likely to be strong, August and September could see some big heatwaves and anticyclonic weather. October onwards should start to turn cooler as La Niña can cause colder conditions in early winter or late autumn so it is safe to say we will most likely see next colder than normal month during the October-December 2024 period

[summer blizzard]

24APR2024: Nino3: 0.6, Nino3.4: 0.8, Nino4: 0.9

April ONI is +0.9.

Edited April 30 by summer blizzard

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Topclassweatherforecaster la niña might not even happen if the blue members on CFS have anything to do with it.  

[cheeky_monkey]

 Addicks Fan 1981 looks like all members as of yesterday are forecasting a La Nina of some sort.

[Don]

 Addicks Fan 1981 A moderate La Nina event looking likely on the latest CFSv2.

[summer blizzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Thought you'd like this. 

It will probably change so don't base a forecast or anything meaningful from it but for the first time, the GFS is forecasting a wall of trades to be strong enough to kill the progression of convection across the Pacific. Notice the fairly vertical blue just east of the dateline. 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

A nice wall of trades developing just east of the dateline over the past month. 

[summer blizzard]

01MAY2024: Nino3: 0.3, Nino3.4: 0.5, Nino4: 0.8
08MAY2024: Nino3: 0.0, Nino3.4: 0.3, Nino4: 0.8

Trades now forecast even stronger. Nino is done, if this continues more than a few weeks we will jump straight to La Niña.

 

[Greyhound81]

 summer blizzard Would that be bad news for the summer?

 

[summer blizzard]

 Greyhound81 No hard and fast rule but yes, mid latitude westerlies would typically be enhanced.

[karyo]

Intense heatwave in the Caribbean and Central America, also extending into the GOM. Several temperature records broken! Sea surface temperatures already well above normal and this heat dome doesn't look like shifting. 

NOAA will issue their hurricane season forecast in a few days, it will be interesting to see if they also go with an above average season like every other forecast has done so far this spring.

 

[Don]

13 hours ago, karyo said:

NOAA will issue their hurricane season forecast in a few days, it will be interesting to see if they also go with an above average season like every other forecast has done so far this spring.

I suspect they will go for a whopper, but we shall see!

[karyo]

 Don I think so too, I just want to see how bullish they are going to be. Some of the released forecasts are going for a record breaker season while all go for above average!

E.G. Colorado State University is going for 25 named storms and 5 major hurricanes (which is a well above average season) while Pensilvania University has gone mad with their forecast, they predict 33 named storms and up to 10 major hurricanes!! Obviously, if Pensilvania University gets it right we would be talking for a historic hurricane season!

[summer blizzard]

[Don]

12 hours ago, karyo said:

I think so too, I just want to see how bullish they are going to be. Some of the released forecasts are going for a record breaker season while all go for above average!

I wonder if a very active hurricane season will lead to yet another hot September?!  

[karyo]

 Don Usually hurricanes that move north in the Atlantic result in September heatwaves here. This year, the forecasts are talking for a more westerly track towards the Caribbean and Central America. 

[Don]

 karyo Ah ok, thanks for the explanation.  I was aware that while there was a link to hot Septembers and an active hurricane seasons, plenty of cooler Septembers also occur during active seasons!

Edited 4 hours ago by Don