E.N.S.O. Discussion

[northwestsnow]

Long rangers seem keen on a southerly tracking jet ( as has been since late June) for Winter 2023.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

MJJ ONI came in at +0.8. 

To update our list and ranking. 

Our updated list for AMJ.

1957: +1.1

1972: +0.9

1976: 0.0

1986: 0.0

2002: +0.7

2009: +0.3

2014: +0.2

2018: 0.0

2023: +0.8

For the third month we are tracking third.

 

To update on our ENSO trades index, July came in at +0.3 which is actually a worse outcome than June. Though still mean easterlies in Nino 3.4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

To compare to our primary analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

1986: -0.4

2002: -0.9

2009: +0.3

2014: 0.0

2018: +0.1

2023: +0.3

 

Some events were a bit stop-start early on but we are close to being behind the full pack. From August onwards, 1986 and 2014 actually had the best coupling through years end. 

Remember that our analysis last month showed a corellation between how early the event coupled and eventual strength so this may be another sign that the models are OTT (i still lean in the +1.3 to +1.7 range). 

I find it intriguing that the EC is going strong on the Nino forecast yet still produces a weaker NAO for winter.

Bodes very well for cold winter chances IMO and suggests we have some play. 

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Long rangers seem keen on a southerly tracking jet ( as has been since late June) for Winter 2023.

 

 

One thing that keeps cropping up is the Euro trough. If we get that in place through winter, that’s half the battle.

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest EC winter 2024

 

[northwestsnow]

23 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest EC winter 2024

 

Isn't EC LRF progging a strong Nino ?

Normally one would expect a strong Nino to blow away any Blocking towards Greenland.

Delighted with the forecast of course..

[Don]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Isn't EC LRF progging a strong Nino ?

Normally one would expect a strong Nino to blow away any Blocking towards Greenland.

Delighted with the forecast of course..

Yes, that's what Crewe has been alluding to.

Just hope the general blocking theme is maintained through autumn!

[summer blizzard]

Probably better to see the NDJ chart to compare to last months and the changes. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Latest monthly update from me now ECM have issued August ENSO forecast

July 2023 assessment

As with previous updates of this nature I will first show how ECM and CFS fared against the average monthly NINO values from NOAA and Tropical Tidbits

Yet again a general overestimation by the models a month ago for the NINO 4, 3.4 and 3 regions. ECM was well off the mark in the main body of the Pacific and it was generally a big well done to CFS here that was actually quite accurate for the main NINO regions.

CFS gets a big black mark for NINO 1+2 as it was way off what actually happened in July and in fact ECM had the right idea here although it did overestimate a bit.

August 2023 forecast and comparison

Here's the latest anomaly predictions by both ECM and CFS for all 4 NINO regions from August 2023 to February 2024. Also included is how the latest forecast compares with the one a month ago and if the values are lower, higher or the same as last month.

Generally grim reading if you are hoping to avoid a Super Nino, especially with ECM that has upgraded the strength of the event compared with July 2023 which in itself was also an upgrade compared with the June 2023 forecast. ECM almost goes for a basin wide super event with only NINO 4 not getting to super.

CFS is a bit better but even it is an upgrade compared to a month ago and also CFS has a little bit more of a CP element to the event by the time winter comes whilst ECM just goes all out for super EP.

[virtualsphere]

Thanks @Mike Poole for the QBO data!  

I've finally had time to revisit the graphs to plot this and I've also added SSW and solar activity data.  The axis are the same as the previous charts I posted, i.e. ENSO (Sept-Nov mean for 3.4 region) vs CET, but this time I've highlighted QBO since 1953 with the colours representing SSW activity (red = earlier, think autumn, & green = later, think spring, & grey = no SSW) and the data point size representing sunspot numbers.  The solar data doesn't indicate which part of the solar cycle each winter is in, which may be more influential than sunspot numbers alone, but thought it would be worth throwing in.

December - eQBO highlighted

This is quite colourful: there's more variation in SSW event timing throughout the whole of the Nov - March period in eQBO years.  Larger shapes towards the centre indicates high solar activity may be associated with less extreme autumn ENSO conditions in eQBO years, while still producing a range of December CET outcomes.  There aren't really any eQBO + strong El Nino + high sunspot examples, 1972 is probably the closest which was very mild. 

December - wQBO highlighted

Quite a difference with wQBO highlighted - SSW events seem to trend towards mid-late winter (Jan / Feb) and a greater range of ENSO extremes than in eQBO, while CET values cluster more towards average-mild than eQBO. Stronger El Nino and La Nina events have occurred with all levels of solar activity, unlike eQBO - if anything, with wQBO low solar activity seems to trend more towards ENSO neutral conditions in autumn.  High sunspot levels in wQBO would seem to limit the December CET range to a minimum of around 3.5C.

January 

 
1979 being something of an outlier, wQBO is otherwise associated with much milder January CET values than eQBO.  The strongest autumn El Nino values seem to be associated with particularly mild Januaries and the majority of these are wQBO and not associated with SSW event years. Under eQBO the strongest autumn Nino examples come in with January CETs around 1.5 and 4.5C, suggesting a colder mid-winter may be possible under current conditions, and all these winters featured a SSW although at different times of the season - caution advised though that these are all under lower solar activity and potentially weaker Nino conditions than currently forecast.

February

 
Both eQBO and wQBO Februaries feature a wide range of CET outcomes.  1983 and 1956 show that colder Februaries are possible under wQBO conditions even following stronger El Nino or La Nina in the autumn and relatively high solar activity.  1991 and 1979 are examples of wQBO cold Februaries closer to ENSO neutral.  Under eQBO the coldest Februaries trend closer to ENSO neutral and, apart from 1968 and 1969, tend to feature lower solar activity - at least in the limited timeframe of this dataset.  The very few examples of stronger El Nino Feburaries under eQBO show mixed conditions - 2010 being coldest, 1973 average and 1966 mild, with 1973 closer in terms of solar activity although further into the descending part of the solar cycle than we are now.

What does this suggest for the upcoming autumn and winter?  If ENSO is in line with this dataset then either El Nino won't prove as strong as some forecasts project this autumn, or (assuming we stay in eQBO) we'll have an unsual combination of strong Nino + eQBO + higher solar activity which make it difficult to predict the outcome.  Interesting to see above that the models have overestimated the El Nino strength so far.

At this point, purely based on this I'd probably plump for a mild December in line with 1972, colder January and some early warmth in February.  If the Nino declines much more rapidly than predicted I'd go for the opposite and something akin to 1968-69 - colder start, mild middle and cold end.  Of course anomalies like Jan 1979 and Dec 2010 show anything is possible even if conditions are nothing like those months... it's a very small dataset in climatological terms...

[Don]

18 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Generally grim reading if you are hoping to avoid a Super Nino, especially with ECM that has upgraded the strength of the event compared with July 2023 which in itself was also an upgrade compared with the June 2023 forecast. ECM almost goes for a basin wide super event with only NINO 4 not getting to super.

CFS is a bit better but even it is an upgrade compared to a month ago and also CFS has a little bit more of a CP element to the event by the time winter comes whilst ECM just goes all out for super EP.

So I wonder why the latest ECM seasonal is going for a cold blocked winter?!

[Chesil View]

4 hours ago, Don said:

So I wonder why the latest ECM seasonal is going for a cold blocked winter?!

just a though but perhaps climate change may be changing the modellings percieved wisdom around the typical effects of a strong El nino.

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

just a though but perhaps climate change may be changing the modellings percieved wisdom around the typical effects of a strong El nino.

Yes, who knows these days?!  

[SqueakheartLW]

7 hours ago, Don said:

So I wonder why the latest ECM seasonal is going for a cold blocked winter?!

3 hours ago, Chesil View said:

just a though but perhaps climate change may be changing the modellings percieved wisdom around the typical effects of a strong El nino.

Could be that unknown new factor of super Nino combined with EQBO which should be well underway by the time winter comes. Since we only have recent history of how super Nino works when combined with a WQBO then it is a big unknown and a nice waiting game to see what happens.

As SSW's seem to be more common in both El Nino's and also with EQBO then we may be seeing the models factoring in a combination of both. This means we could get

• Another 1997/98 or 2015/16 repeat with no SSW if the EQBO fails to deliver
• A lesser version of the above years if super Nino effects are moderated by EQBO
• As Feb 1983 shows we can get cold weather within a super Nino winter so we could see at least 1 cold month
• Or we get the holy grail winter with super Nino effects combining with EQBO and a big polar vortex killer SSW all combining to potentially set up a 2009/10 on steroids or possibly a 1962/63 repeat,

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 07/08/2023 at 20:39, SqueakheartLW said:

Could be that unknown new factor of super Nino combined with EQBO which should be well underway by the time winter comes. Since we only have recent history of how super Nino works when combined with a WQBO then it is a big unknown and a nice waiting game to see what happens.

As SSW's seem to be more common in both El Nino's and also with EQBO then we may be seeing the models factoring in a combination of both. This means we could get

• Another 1997/98 or 2015/16 repeat with no SSW if the EQBO fails to deliver
• A lesser version of the above years if super Nino effects are moderated by EQBO
• As Feb 1983 shows we can get cold weather within a super Nino winter so we could see at least 1 cold month
• Or we get the holy grail winter with super Nino effects combining with EQBO and a big polar vortex killer SSW all combining to potentially set up a 2009/10 on steroids or possibly a 1962/63 repeat,

I do wonder if we’ll see an early warming of the stratosphere this year. Been a fair while since we’ve seen a late Nov/Dec CW for example.
 

I’m also wondering whether some of the seasonals are anticipating a SSW, hence why the same higher than average Greenland height signature is seen on a couple of them.

[summer blizzard]

02AUG2023: Nino3: 1.8 , Nino3.4: 0.1 , Nino4: 0.8

JJ MEI came in at +0.3. 

[SqueakheartLW]

23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

02AUG2023: Nino3: 1.8 , Nino3.4: 0.1 , Nino4: 0.8

JJ MEI came in at +0.3. 

Nino3.4 at just 0.1C ???

Sure about that as that's a big drop in just a week

Edited August 9, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Addicks Fan 1981]

44 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Nino3.4 at just 0.1C ???

Sure about that as that's a big drop in just a week

Think he meant 1.1 on Niño 3.4, it was a typo.    

[summer blizzard]

Yeah, should be 1.1. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Yeah, should be 1.1. 

Think @summer blizzardthe easterly trades probably cooled region 3.4 slightly, only slightly though.   

[summer blizzard]

More relevant here but for those talking about the event becoming west based, that won't happen before it peaks. This will be a basin wide event at peak.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

56 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

More relevant here but for those talking about the event becoming west based, that won't happen before it peaks. This will be a basin wide event at peak.

The niño regions are 

Niño 1 & 2     3.3

Niño 3            1.8 

Niño 3.4         1.2

Niño 4            0.9

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The niño regions this week are:

Niño 1 & 2  3.3

Niño 3         2.0

Niño 3.4      1.3

Niño 4          0.9

[SqueakheartLW]

On 23/08/2023 at 15:47, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The niño regions this week are:

Niño 1 & 2  3.3

Niño 3         2.0

Niño 3.4      1.3

Niño 4          0.9

Still on course for at least a strong event in 3.4 if this continues. Hope we can at least dodge super unless it can turn into a super CP event.

[Don]

35 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Still on course for at least a strong event in 3.4 if this continues. Hope we can at least dodge super unless it can turn into a super CP event.

I think Super is looking unlikely at this point, but a strong event very likely?

[summer blizzard]

The Asian Monsoon is forecast to end soon which should allow Nino forcing to be stronger (think of the summer as having many warm areas trying to compete, this is less of an issue as we head towards winter). Thus we will know by the middle of October if this event is a full blooded Nino or whether we've just been riding off the coattails of the warm west Pacific that finally let loose. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Good news for those of us who want to avoid a Super Nino. It would seem CFS have dropped the idea recently.

Early August forecast

Mid August forecast

Most recent forecast

Now if this isn't good news for coldies then what will it take for the pieces to fall right for once.