E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Added some more QBO vs ENSO information and data for everyone to read here. Have been looking to see if there is indeed any link between the QBO leading up to the winter as well as the ENSO status as well as position in the Pacific.

Firstly I have a list of all of the ENSO events from 1954 onwards in order of strength from strongest El Nino's right down to strongest La Nina's with the QBO direction and strength in the autumn preceding the winter.

A whole mixture here with a range of QBO directions and strengths throughout the list but I did a closer look at specific categories to see if there is any link.

Average QBO speed under each ENSO status

This was a general blanket assessment under El Nino, Neutral and La Nina. The result is below.

What is of immediate interest here is how the more we head in the direction of El Nino the more likely we are to be more WQBO influenced with a less negative number and as we head in the direction of La Nina we are slightly more EQBO biased.

This tells little but does hint that:

• EQBO fights against El Nino
• EQBO favours La Nina
• WQBO favours El Nino
• WQBO fights against La Nina

Average QBO speed under specific El Nino's and La Nina's

Now for something a bit more specific and should show up any further links. How does each El Nino type and La Nina type link up with the QBO

What is immediately obvious here is how both CP El Nino and EP La Nina are more likely with an EQBO in place whilst EP El Nino and CP La Nina are more likely with WQBO.

This tells us a bit more now and hints

• EQBO favours both CP El Nino and EP La Nina
• EQBO fights against EP El Nino and CP La Nina
• WQBO favours EP El Nino and CP La Nina
• WQBO fights against CP El Nino and EP La Nina

Average QBO speed under each specific El Nino type

Now for the most relevant for 2023 as El Nino looks all but certain now. Which El Nino type and QBO speed and direction go together. The result is below.

The most immediate obvious thing here is how in general CP events go with EQBO and EP events with WQBO. The strong EP and CP events are based on very few El Nino's so might not be that representative but the rest have enough events to go on.

What’s the QBO figure likely to be come December? If it’s negative double digits then I suspect we may see a mod/strong CP event. Quite possibly holy grail set up kinda stuff.

[sebastiaan1973]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/58/#comments

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/58/#comments

Hard to see anything other than a strong El Nino Winter..

[BruenSryan]

17 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Added some more QBO vs ENSO information and data for everyone to read here. Have been looking to see if there is indeed any link between the QBO leading up to the winter as well as the ENSO status as well as position in the Pacific.

Firstly I have a list of all of the ENSO events from 1954 onwards in order of strength from strongest El Nino's right down to strongest La Nina's with the QBO direction and strength in the autumn preceding the winter.

A whole mixture here with a range of QBO directions and strengths throughout the list but I did a closer look at specific categories to see if there is any link.

Average QBO speed under each ENSO status

This was a general blanket assessment under El Nino, Neutral and La Nina. The result is below.

What is of immediate interest here is how the more we head in the direction of El Nino the more likely we are to be more WQBO influenced with a less negative number and as we head in the direction of La Nina we are slightly more EQBO biased.

This tells little but does hint that:

• EQBO fights against El Nino
• EQBO favours La Nina
• WQBO favours El Nino
• WQBO fights against La Nina

Average QBO speed under specific El Nino's and La Nina's

Now for something a bit more specific and should show up any further links. How does each El Nino type and La Nina type link up with the QBO

What is immediately obvious here is how both CP El Nino and EP La Nina are more likely with an EQBO in place whilst EP El Nino and CP La Nina are more likely with WQBO.

This tells us a bit more now and hints

• EQBO favours both CP El Nino and EP La Nina
• EQBO fights against EP El Nino and CP La Nina
• WQBO favours EP El Nino and CP La Nina
• WQBO fights against CP El Nino and EP La Nina

Average QBO speed under each specific El Nino type

Now for the most relevant for 2023 as El Nino looks all but certain now. Which El Nino type and QBO speed and direction go together. The result is below.

The most immediate obvious thing here is how in general CP events go with EQBO and EP events with WQBO. The strong EP and CP events are based on very few El Nino's so might not be that representative but the rest have enough events to go on.

Where is this data from? The peak for 1965-66 I can see is +2.0 which is solidly strong and it was an easterly QBO.

[damianslaw]

On 18/07/2023 at 22:39, Don said:

One big difference for this coming winter compared to 2009/10 is solar activity, as we will be nearing maximum, whereas in 2009, we were just passed minimum, which is thought to have contributed to the cold winter.  

2009-10 brought a negative NAO west based scenario in Nov, copious rain and very mild a precursor to a cold winter..I think Nov will give many clues to the winter this year, would not be surprised to see this Nov do the same after a pleasant calm Sept- Oct. This July is turning into a July 09 copy... 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Looks like a few new ensemble members want the el niño to accelerate now.    

[Don]

2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Looks like a few new ensemble members want the el niño to accelerate now.    

Look like a split has developed within the latest ensembles, with some going Super Nino and others moderate to strong.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

@Glacier Pointdid say @Donthat region 3.4 is effectively the ONI which is the most relied upon bit of information.   

[sebastiaan1973]

History indicates that Extratropical Influences Likely to be Key

It has been well advertised on Eastern Mass Weather what a crucial role ENSO plays in dictating the prevailing weather pattern across the hemisphere, given that it is the convection in this region that heavily influences both the rosby wave train and Hadley Cell alignment. However, as demonstrated last month, there is a wide range of potential outcomes when said convective forcing aligns itself across the central Pacific, as guidance continues to suggest. 

The July update from IRI reflected no major changes with regard to el nino, as a strong event continues to be the expectation by ONI standards.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/07/winter-2023-2024-unlikely-to-be-decided.html

[Cheshire Freeze]

I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll end up with a strong moderate or weakly strong modoki event.

[Penguin16]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll end up with a strong moderate or weakly strong modoki event.

Modoki? What’s that 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Penguin16 said:

Modoki? What’s that 

Central Pacific rather than East

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll end up with a strong moderate or weakly strong modoki event.

Lets hope so!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll end up with a strong moderate or weakly strong modoki event.

Right now most forcing is in the western Pacific and the sub-surface would suggest a transition towards a more classic configuration, probably by around October as we lose the African and Asian monsoon to strengthen the atmospheric feedback. That is why I do think something around the moderate to strong border is likely (peak of say 1.7 in 3.4 around November). 

In terms of modiki, it will likely become more west based but not until it's weakening and probably not a classic modiki (1.2 will lose warmth but probably not to the point a classic modiki would - this will be basin wide). 

Losing the warmth in the west fairly quickly means I'm fairly confident that this will be a short event like 73/10. I think there's a fair chance of La Nina developing again in around a year. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Don]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Right now most forcing is in the western Pacific and the sub-surface would suggest a transition towards a more classic configuration, probably by around October as we lose the African and Asian monsoon to strengthen the atmospheric feedback. That is why I do think something around the moderate to strong border is likely (peak of say 1.7 in 3.4 around November). 

In terms of modiki, it will likely become more west based but not until it's weakening and probably not a classic modiki (1.2 will lose warmth but probably not to the point a classic modiki would - this will be basin wide). 

Losing the warmth in the west fairly quickly means I'm fairly confident that this will be a short event like 73/10. I think there's a fair chance of La Nina developing again in around a year. 

If that's the case, cold winter seekers will have to hope the EQBO is helpful then!

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, Don said:

If that's the case, cold winter seekers will have to hope the EQBO is helpful then!

The QBO should be peak E'ly come December as July should come out as the first negative month.

From the (admittedly limited) data we have, basin wide strong or super Ninos look to be rare when the QBO peaks negative during the winter. As the analysis a few posts back shows, Ninos tend to become more CP events once the -ve QBO matures.

There's 4 months until winter, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that we'll be thrown a curveball and this will end up not being a basin wide event when it matters.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

24th July Update

Niño 1 & 2  3.5

Niño 3         1.7

Niño 3.4      1.1

Niño 4         0.8

[Premiere Neige]

19 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

24th July Update

Niño 1 & 2  3.5

Niño 3         1.7

Niño 3.4      1.1

Niño 4         0.8

Where did you get these figures? According to Tropical Tidbits 3.4 was 0.881 today, a touch higher than yesterday. 

[SqueakheartLW]

El Nino predictions based on historical events and current anomalies

Recent July 2023 data

Date   Nino 4     Nino 3.4     Nino 3     Nino 1+2
10th    0.7          1.0              1.5            3.3
17th    0.7          1.1              1.6            3.4
24th    0.8          1.1              1.7            3.5

July predictions based on above
           Nino 4     Nino 3.4     Nino 3     Nino 1+2
AV      0.7           1.1               1.6           3.4

Scenario 1 - EP event

First we have all of the El Nino events that were at El Nino status in July's which were least warm in NINO 4 and warmest in NINO 1+2, really like July 2023 will very likely turn out that then went on to become EP events

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PEAK            Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type      
July 1902    0.57      1.44         1.52      1.64                Nov 1902    0.62      1.54         1.63       1.57              Mod EP
July 1905    0.58      0.82         0.80      1.12                Sep 1905     0.92      1.42         1.38       0.83             Mod EP
July 1930    0.22      0.64         0.77      0.76                Nov 1930    0.80      1.79         1.81       1.45              Mod EP
July 1951    -0.03     0.66         1.14      2.20                Aug 1951    0.14      0.90         1.26       1.61              Weak EP
July 1972    0.30      0.83         1.33      2.66                Dec 1972     0.89      2.19         2.44       1.91             Strong EP
July 1997    0.70      1.70         2.39      3.99                Dec 1997     0.83      2.69         3.62       4.13             Super EP
July 2015    1.00      1.60         2.17      2.87                Nov 2015    1.67      2.95         2.93       2.24              Super EP

Predicting 2023 El Nino based on above if we end up with EP event

NINO 4 - We are currently closest to 1997's July NINO 4 of +0.70C so NINO 4 at peak has a good chance of ending up between +0.70C and +1.00C

NINO 3.4 - We are currently between 1902, 1905 and 1972 at +1.10C. Using the peak 3.4 values of these years of +1.54C, +1.42C and +2.19C the predicted NINO 3.4 value will likely be between +1.52C and +1.92C with a mid point of +1.72C

NINO 3 - We are currently slightly above July 1902's value of +1.52C by 0.08C. No other year is particularly close so using this the projected NINO 3 peak value should be between +1.51C and +1.91C with the mid point of +1.71C

NINO 1+2 - We are currently close to halfway between 1997's value of +3.99C and 2015's value of +2.87C. Using these 2 years the projected NINO 1+2 peak should be between +2.89C and 3.49C with a mid point value of +3.19C

Scenario 2 - Shift to CP event

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PEAK            Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type      
July 1925    -0.04     0.50         0.82      0.94                Dec 1925     0.76     1.60         1.51       1.19             Mod CP
July 1957    0.08      0.69         1.19      2.14                Jan 1958      1.07     1.54         1.19       0.73             Mod CP
July 1965    0.07      0.81         0.94      1.72                Oct 1965      0.59     1.61         1.37      0.80             Mod CP
July 2009    0.40      0.72         0.94      1.02                Dec 2009     1.18     1.72         1.53       0.35            Mod CP

Predicting 2023 El Nino based on above if we do switch to CP event

NINO 4 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 4 value of +0.70C is well above any of these years featured. The closest one however is 2009. The projected peak NINO 4 based on this and the extra warmth of 2023 will likely be between 1.18C and 1.58C with a mid point of +1.38C

NINO 3.4 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 3.4 value is closest to 1965's value and like NINO 4 is warmer than this one still. Factoring this in the projected NINO 3.4 peak will likely be between +1.61C and +2.01C with a mid point of +1.81C

NINO 3 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 3 value is way above any of the years featured here but is closest to 1957's value. With the margin of warmth here NINO 3 should peak somewhere between +1.39C and +1.79C with a mid point of +1.59C

NINO 1+2 - Our NINO 1+2 value for July 2023 is way warmer than any of these years featured but is closest to 1957. Using the margin of warmth as well as how the event turns to CP then the projected NINO 1+2 value at the NINO 3.4 peak should be somewhere between +0.93C and +1.53C with a mid point of +1.23C

Conclusions

Scenario 1 prediction - EP event

If our current event ends up EP then projected anomalies at peak

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PRED PEAK  Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type            
July 2023    0.70      1.10         1.60       3.40               Nov 2023 ?  0.85      1.72         1.71       3.19              Mod/Str EP

This very likely showing a moderate to possibly strong EP El Nino event most likely around November 2023.

Scenario 2 prediction - CP event

If our current event ends up CP then projected anomalies at peak

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PRED PEAK  Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type            
July 2023    0.70      1.10         1.60      3.40                Nov 2023 ?  1.38       1.81        1.59       1.23              Strong CP

This very likely showing a strong CP El Nino event most likely around November 2023.

12 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Where did you get these figures? According to Tropical Tidbits 3.4 was 0.881 today, a touch higher than yesterday. 

Think they are from this PDF that updates every week

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Tropical tidbits has been running a little less warm in all 4 NINO regions than this PDF is showing

Edited July 25, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Premiere Neige]

6 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

El Nino predictions based on historical events and current anomalies

Recent July 2023 data

Date   Nino 4     Nino 3.4     Nino 3     Nino 1+2
10th    0.7          1.0              1.5            3.3
17th    0.7          1.1              1.6            3.4
24th    0.8          1.1              1.7            3.5

July predictions based on above
           Nino 4     Nino 3.4     Nino 3     Nino 1+2
AV      0.7           1.1               1.6           3.4

Scenario 1 - EP event

First we have all of the El Nino events that were at El Nino status in July's which were least warm in NINO 4 and warmest in NINO 1+2, really like July 2023 will very likely turn out that then went on to become EP events

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PEAK            Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type      
July 1902    0.57      1.44         1.52      1.64                Nov 1902    0.62      1.54         1.63       1.57              Mod EP
July 1905    0.58      0.82         0.80      1.12                Sep 1905     0.92      1.42         1.38       0.83             Mod EP
July 1930    0.22      0.64         0.77      0.76                Nov 1930    0.80      1.79         1.81       1.45              Mod EP
July 1951    -0.03     0.66         1.14      2.20                Aug 1951    0.14      0.90         1.26       1.61              Weak EP
July 1972    0.30      0.83         1.33      2.66                Dec 1972     0.89      2.19         2.44       1.91             Strong EP
July 1997    0.70      1.70         2.39      3.99                Dec 1997     0.83      2.69         3.62       4.13             Super EP
July 2015    1.00      1.60         2.17      2.87                Nov 2015    1.67      2.95         2.93       2.24              Super EP

Predicting 2023 El Nino based on above if we end up with EP event

NINO 4 - We are currently closest to 1997's July NINO 4 of +0.70C so NINO 4 at peak has a good chance of ending up between +0.70C and +1.00C

NINO 3.4 - We are currently between 1902, 1905 and 1972 at +1.10C. Using the peak 3.4 values of these years of +1.54C, +1.42C and +2.19C the predicted NINO 3.4 value will likely be between +1.52C and +1.92C with a mid point of +1.72C

NINO 3 - We are currently slightly above July 1902's value of +1.52C by 0.08C. No other year is particularly close so using this the projected NINO 3 peak value should be between +1.51C and +1.91C with the mid point of +1.71C

NINO 1+2 - We are currently close to halfway between 1997's value of +3.99C and 2015's value of +2.87C. Using these 2 years the projected NINO 1+2 peak should be between +2.89C and 3.49C with a mid point value of +3.19C

Scenario 2 - Shift to CP event

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PEAK            Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type      
July 1925    -0.04     0.50         0.82      0.94                Dec 1925     0.76     1.60         1.51       1.19             Mod CP
July 1957    0.08      0.69         1.19      2.14                Jan 1958      1.07     1.54         1.19       0.73             Mod CP
July 1965    0.07      0.81         0.94      1.72                Oct 1965      0.59     1.61         1.37      0.80             Mod CP
July 2009    0.40      0.72         0.94      1.02                Dec 2009     1.18     1.72         1.53       0.35            Mod CP

Predicting 2023 El Nino based on above if we do switch to CP event

NINO 4 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 4 value of +0.70C is well above any of these years featured. The closest one however is 2009. The projected peak NINO 4 based on this and the extra warmth of 2023 will likely be between 1.18C and 1.58C with a mid point of +1.38C

NINO 3.4 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 3.4 value is closest to 1965's value and like NINO 4 is warmer than this one still. Factoring this in the projected NINO 3.4 peak will likely be between +1.61C and +2.01C with a mid point of +1.81C

NINO 3 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 3 value is way above any of the years featured here but is closest to 1957's value. With the margin of warmth here NINO 3 should peak somewhere between +1.39C and +1.79C with a mid point of +1.59C

NINO 1+2 - Our NINO 1+2 value for July 2023 is way warmer than any of these years featured but is closest to 1957. Using the margin of warmth as well as how the event turns to CP then the projected NINO 1+2 value at the NINO 3.4 peak should be somewhere between +0.93C and +1.53C with a mid point of +1.23C

Conclusions

Scenario 1 prediction - EP event

If our current event ends up EP then projected anomalies at peak

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PRED PEAK  Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type            
July 2023    0.70      1.10         1.60       3.40               Nov 2023 ?  0.85      1.72         1.71       3.19              Mod/Str EP

This very likely showing a moderate to possibly strong EP El Nino event most likely around November 2023.

Scenario 2 prediction - CP event

If our current event ends up CP then projected anomalies at peak

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PRED PEAK  Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type            
July 2023    0.70      1.10         1.60      3.40                Nov 2023 ?  1.38       1.81        1.59       1.23              Strong CP

This very likely showing a strong CP El Nino event most likely around November 2023.

Think they are from this PDF that updates every week

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Tropical tidbits has been running a little less warm in all 4 NINO regions than this PDF is showing

Which one is correct then?

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

Which one is correct then?

Only time will tell LOL

If my other analysis regarding the EQBO and ENSO proves true then the CP one could verify but there were far more EP outcomes in the list than CP ones unfortunately

[Premiere Neige]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Only time will tell LOL

If my other analysis regarding the EQBO and ENSO proves true then the CP one could verify but there were far more EP outcomes in the list than CP ones unfortunately

Of course, and I wouldn't expect you to know that! Was actually referring to the NOAA or Tropical Tidbits readings for the Niño region when I asked which one is correct...

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

Of course, and I wouldn't expect you to know that! Was actually referring to the NOAA or Tropical Tidbits readings for the Niño region when I asked which one is correct...

No idea but at least tropical tidbits give daily readings which I have a record of going back right up to November 2020 when I thought I would take them down.

Have seen how this El Nino has developed throughout the year day by day and how annoyingly so far it has been very EP based.

[Premiere Neige]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

No idea but at least tropical tidbits give daily readings which I have a record of going back right up to November 2020 when I thought I would take them down.

Have seen how this El Nino has developed throughout the year day by day and how annoyingly so far it has been very EP based.

Question for you as I'm bored with this so called summer and my thoughts are turning to winter already. As I understand it, a weak to moderate el niño gives us a better chance of a colder winter (other factors allowing). Does a strong el niño tend to scupper our chances and have we had a cold winter during a "super niño"?

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Question for you as I'm bored with this so called summer and my thoughts are turning to winter already. As I understand it, a weak to moderate el niño gives us a better chance of a colder winter (other factors allowing). Does a strong el niño tend to scupper our chances and have we had a cold winter during a "super niño"?

A strong or super nino unfortunately tends to lead to a strong Euro HP, especially December and first half of January. Februarys tend to be cold stormy.