E.N.S.O. Discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

19 hours ago, Redbull165 said:

And its happening. For the first time this year when El nino developed, we are seeing Enso area 3.4 warmer with anomalies than 1+2. Modoki El nino slowly taking its place.

Difference in last 7 days. The western part over the Pacific is seeing a lot of warming last few days, the eastern part quite the opposite around the coast of Ecuador.

 

It's tipped even more towards modoki again today. A big jump in the anomaly in region 3.4 since just yesterday and a bit more cooling again in 1+2

What we really need however to make it a true modoki event is for region 4 to be somewhat warmer than 1+2 and Nino 3 to also cool a little bit too

[summer blizzard]

15NOV2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 1.9 , Nino4: 1.5

 

[cheeky_monkey]

On 18/11/2023 at 13:07, SqueakheartLW said:

It's tipped even more towards modoki again today. A big jump in the anomaly in region 3.4 since just yesterday and a bit more cooling again in 1+2

What we really need however to make it a true modoki event is for region 4 to be somewhat warmer than 1+2 and Nino 3 to also cool a little bit too

dont see anything but a basin wide event right now as 1+2 have warmed back up to +2c again over the last few days

[summer blizzard]

22NOV2023: Nino3: 2.3 , Nino3.4: 2.1 , Nino4: 1.5

[summer blizzard]

29NOV2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.7

November ONI came in at +1.9. 

SON ONI increased to +1.8.  

Edited December 5, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Metwatch]

Perhaps an end to the current El Nino event by the end of spring 2024 according to the NMME models.

Graph by @WorldClimateService on Twitter / 𝕏.

[summer blizzard]

That's an impressive slip back to La Nina. 

[summer blizzard]

06DEC2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 1.9, Nino4: 1.4

MEI also increased to +0.6.

[Greyhound81]

On 07/12/2023 at 18:08, summer blizzard said:

That's an impressive slip back to La Nina. 

Does going back to La Nina in spring mean 2024 will likely be cooler than this year?

[summer blizzard]

40 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

Does going back to La Nina in spring mean 2024 will likely be cooler than this year?

There's normally a lag so globally it's impact would be 2025 however for the UK there's no strong annual link. 2011 and 2014 were very mild and during/after La Nina. 

[summer blizzard]

13DEC2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.4

Edited December 19, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Don]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

13DEC2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.4

Pretty much a basin wide event now?

[summer blizzard]

20DEC2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.4

On 19/12/2023 at 19:35, Don said:

Pretty much a basin wide event now?

Yes. 

3.4 is stronger than 1.2 but 1.2 is still +1.6 so its basin wide centered in Nino 3. 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 19/12/2023 at 19:35, Don said:

Pretty much a basin wide event now?

Maybe the reason winter has gone off the rails with the mild and wet is that the NINO is too strong. We really needed something around +1C to +1.5C, not around +2C which is almost mimicking a Super Nino pattern for December now and with NINO 3 warmer than NINO 4 the EP event isn't helping either.

Edited December 26, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[summer blizzard]

20 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe the reason winter has gone off the rails with the mild and wet is that the NINO is too strong. We really needed something around +1C to +1.5C, not around +2C which is almost mimicking a Super Nino pattern for December now and with NINO 3 warmer than NINO 4 the EP event isn't helping either.

While not beneficial, it's not the strength that is really an issue currently. Most moderate to strong Nino analogues show a +AO December which flips for Jan-March. 

09/10 is a significant anomaly for a Nino of any strength. 

We also had convection in the wrong place until about the 20th (feeding through around months end) so we may just have been unlucky in the tropical cycle. 

 

[summer blizzard]

27DEC2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.4

03JAN2024: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 1.9, Nino4: 1.4

Edited January 11 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

10JAN2024: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 1.9, Nino4: 1.5

[summer blizzard]

Nino has peaked. 

No westerlies in the ENSO zone until at least early February.

Sub-surface profile is now polarized to neutral close to the dateline. 

SST's are now responding. 

 

[summer blizzard]

ONI increased to +1.97 in December which is likely the event peak. 

OND ONI increased to +1.9. NDJ will come in at +2.0 or +1.9 depending how the final two January figures look. 

ND MEI increased to +1.1.

[summer blizzard]

17JAN2024: Nino3: 1.9 , Nino3.4: 1.7, Nino4: 1.4

[summer blizzard]

Sub Surface has hit -3 close to the dateline. 

Tropical convection might weaken this in the next few weeks but it's likely come late Feb and March that this returns. 

One last hurrah and then this Nino goes.. Geronimo.

[summer blizzard]

24JAN2024: Nino3: 1.8 , Nino3.4: 1.7, Nino4: 1.6

31JAN2024: Nino3: 1.9 , Nino3.4: 1.8, Nino4: 1.5

Jan ONI fell to +1.81.

NDJ ONI increased to +2.0 (technically +1.97)

[summer blizzard]

07FEB2024: Nino3: 1.6, Nino3.4: 1.7, Nino4: 1.3

[summer blizzard]

14FEB2024: Nino3: 1.5, Nino3.4: 1.5, Nino4: 1.1

[summer blizzard]

21FEB2024: Nino3: 1.4, Nino3.4: 1.5, Nino4: 1.2

28FEB2024: Nino3: 1.3, Nino3.4: 1.3, Nino4: 1.1

Feb ONI fell to +1.5. 

DJF ONI fell to +1.8. 

 

Edited March 7 by summer blizzard