E.N.S.O. Discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

Question for you as I'm bored with this so called summer and my thoughts are turning to winter already. As I understand it, a weak to moderate el niño gives us a better chance of a colder winter (other factors allowing). Does a strong el niño tend to scupper our chances and have we had a cold winter during a "super niño"?

Strong El Nino winters tend to produce a UK high pressure anomaly on the analysis charts so nearest to cold is maybe overnight frosts and Super Nino usually means mild and zonal although February 1983 was cold under a super Nino.

Moderate El Nino is the best shot for cold and if all else fails a weak CP one maybe.

As with all El Nino's the CP ones are a better shot at cold. No idea what a Super CP El Nino would do as there's none in the record at all and that would be a recorded historical first if it were to happen.

Weak El Nino                                            Moderate El Nino

    

Strong El Nino                                           Super El Nino

    

 

 

[Premiere Neige]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A strong or super nino unfortunately tends to lead to a strong Euro HP, especially December and first half of January. Februarys tend to be cold stormy.

Seems everything leads to a strong Euro HP these days! I would take a cold stormy February of course if the storms were of snow but I would love a frigid January as we haven't had one for a while. Hopefully the developing el niño doesn't get too strong...

[Premiere Neige]

10 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Strong El Nino winters tend to produce a UK high pressure anomaly on the analysis charts so nearest to cold is maybe overnight frosts and Super Nino usually means mild and zonal although February 1983 was cold under a super Nino.

Moderate El Nino is the best shot for cold and if all else fails a weak CP one maybe.

As with all El Nino's the CP ones are a better shot at cold. No idea what a Super CP El Nino would do as there's none in the record at all and that would be a recorded historical first if it were to happen.

Weak El Nino                                            Moderate El Nino

    

Strong El Nino                                           Super El Nino

    

 

 

Super CP might be interesting to see what happens in our neck of the woods but as there aren't any recorded, it would probably mean something is very wrong! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Conclusions

Scenario 1 prediction - EP event

If our current event ends up EP then projected anomalies at peak

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PRED PEAK  Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type            
July 2023    0.70      1.10         1.60       3.40               Nov 2023 ?  0.85      1.72         1.71       3.19              Mod/Str EP

This very likely showing a moderate to possibly strong EP El Nino event most likely around November 2023.

Scenario 2 prediction - CP event

If our current event ends up CP then projected anomalies at peak

                    Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2       PRED PEAK  Nino 4  Nino 3.4  Nino 3  Nino 1+2     Type            
July 2023    0.70      1.10         1.60      3.40                Nov 2023 ?  1.38       1.81        1.59       1.23              Strong CP

This very likely showing a strong CP El Nino event most likely around November 2023.

Doesn't look great from your analysis, however, at least a Super EP Nino is currently not favoured?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

Super CP might be interesting to see what happens in our neck of the woods but as there aren't any recorded, it would probably mean something is very wrong! 

I believe this summer has been a combination of 1976 and 2009 so far, relating to one of your previous posts in here.    The way the weather is going as @CreweColdhas suggested is the weather isn't a million miles away from 2009 at all.    

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I believe this summer has been a combination of 1976 and 2009 so far, relating to one of your previous posts in here.    The way the weather is going as @CreweColdhas suggested is the weather isn't a million miles away from 2009 at all.    

I’ve said all along, December will be the litmus test. If we avoid a mean Euro HP anomaly then the winter overall will be a cold one IMO.

If December features the Euro HP then we can fairly confidently write off January too as we’ll be following the usual strong Nino trajectory.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Also @CreweColdI do think that the cpc website gives the most credible information over the ENSO, i have always trusted it wholeheartedly.   Other users here have trust in the site too.

[Premiere Neige]

9 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I believe this summer has been a combination of 1976 and 2009 so far, relating to one of your previous posts in here.    The way the weather is going as @CreweColdhas suggested is the weather isn't a million miles away from 2009 at all.    

Let's hope the winter isn't a million miles from 09/10! I don't recall the winter of 76/77 as I wasn't born until the spring...

[Don]

4 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Let's hope the winter isn't a million miles from 09/10! I don't recall the winter of 76/77 as I wasn't born until the spring...

Solar activity is significantly stronger that what it was in 2009, plus we've had a further 10+ years of warming since then.  However, the next six months going to be interesting if nothing else!

[summer blizzard]

21 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Where did you get these figures? According to Tropical Tidbits 3.4 was 0.881 today, a touch higher than yesterday. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Official data that the ONI is based upon.

Tropical Tidbits either use a different framework or select their own boeys not radically different but not official. 

[virtualsphere]

22 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Question for you as I'm bored with this so called summer and my thoughts are turning to winter already. As I understand it, a weak to moderate el niño gives us a better chance of a colder winter (other factors allowing). Does a strong el niño tend to scupper our chances and have we had a cold winter during a "super niño"?

I've dug out and updated some data visualisations I created in Tableau a while back on this.  Essentially taking a broad brush approach, the weaker Nino the better for a chance of a cold winter - these are comparing the average Nino data for Sept, Oct & Nov with the CET for the following winter (year is the start year of winter, so 2009 for 2009/10 etc).  Nina winters give a wide range of temperature outcomes but it seems the stronger the Nino gets, the narrower & warmer the range of CET outcome.  

Nino 1+2 region: for a sub-3C CET overall, there's only one example here above +1.0 (1941/42)

eQBO years highlighted (gives a far smaller dataset and very few strong positive ENSO + eQBO examples):

Nino 3.4 - similar pattern, perhaps slightly less pronounced: 2009/10 probably as high as it goes in the sub 3.5C range:

eQBO highlighted:

Obviously this doesn't really indicate cold spells in otherwise warmer winters, or the synoptic conditions as shown in the charts already posted by SqueakheartLW.  I'll try and take a deeper look at individual months when I get a chance.  

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Official data that the ONI is based upon.

Tropical Tidbits either use a different framework or select their own boeys not radically different but not official. 

Thank you for clearing that up @summer blizzardand you put it better than I did.   

[Premiere Neige]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Official data that the ONI is based upon.

Tropical Tidbits either use a different framework or select their own boeys not radically different but not official. 

Thanks for clearing that up!

6 hours ago, Don said:

Solar activity is significantly stronger that what it was in 2009, plus we've had a further 10+ years of warming since then.  However, the next six months going to be interesting if nothing else!

But the solar output link is somewhat tenuous isn't it? 

[Premiere Neige]

18 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

I've dug out and updated some data visualisations I created in Tableau a while back on this.  Essentially taking a broad brush approach, the weaker Nino the better for a chance of a cold winter - these are comparing the average Nino data for Sept, Oct & Nov with the CET for the following winter (year is the start year of winter, so 2009 for 2009/10 etc).  Nina winters give a wide range of temperature outcomes but it seems the stronger the Nino gets, the narrower & warmer the range of CET outcome.  

Nino 1+2 region: for a sub-3C CET overall, there's only one example here above +1.0 (1941/42)

eQBO years highlighted (gives a far smaller dataset and very few strong positive ENSO + eQBO examples):

Nino 3.4 - similar pattern, perhaps slightly less pronounced: 2009/10 probably as high as it goes in the sub 3.5C range:

eQBO highlighted:

Obviously this doesn't really indicate cold spells in otherwise warmer winters, or the synoptic conditions as shown in the charts already posted by SqueakheartLW.  I'll try and take a deeper look at individual months when I get a chance.  

That's great, thanks for this!

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

But the solar output link is somewhat tenuous isn't it? 

Opinions vary on this I think.

[cheeky_monkey]

23 hours ago, CreweCold said:

A strong or super nino unfortunately tends to lead to a strong Euro HP, especially December and first half of January. Februarys tend to be cold stormy.

For super ninos Feb 1983 was cold and snowy after a mild Dec and Jan ..however Feb 98 was mild even exceptionally mild mid month with temps close to 20c ..Feb 2016 was also on the mild side but not as mild as Dec and Jan

[Don]

23 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

For super ninos Feb 1983 was cold and snowy after a mild Dec and Jan ..however Feb 98 was mild even exceptionally mild mid month with temps close to 20c ..Feb 2016 was also on the mild side but not as mild as Dec and Jan

Yes, I remember snow in February 1983, albeit it wasn't a patch on the snowfalls of the previous winter!  

[SqueakheartLW]

Just wanted to show 500mb analysis charts of Nino events between winters of 1870/71 and 1947/48 and how they compare with the more modern averages I showed before to see if the outcomes are similar or much different. Make what you want out of these charts.

Weak El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48            Weak El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

Almost a carbon copy here for weak El Nino winters with a block to our NW and a Euro trough. Not as good as moderate El Nino's for blocking but clearly a similar pattern can be seen for all weak El Nino winters.

Moderate El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48     Moderate El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

A number of winters to go on here and there's a fair amount of similarity with the pattern for moderate El Nino winters both pre 1948 and post 1948. All feature northern blocking with troughing through Europe. Seems to be a cold signal all round with moderate El Nino's.

Strong El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48           Strong El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

Another example where only 1 strong El Nino took place pre 1948. Has a similar outcome to the super Nino winter of 1877/78 and another high pressure borefest.

Super El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48            Super El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

Only 1 example to go on for super Nino's pre 1948 so not a lot can be read into this but winter 1877/78 looked to be a bit of a high pressure borefest looking at that.

[blizzard81]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Solar activity is significantly stronger that what it was in 2009, plus we've had a further 10+ years of warming since then.  However, the next six months going to be interesting if nothing else!

Well you know my thoughts on this subject. However, there is always hope. Anybody know the ENSO status and QBO for the 46/47 winter?

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Just wanted to show 500mb analysis charts of Nino events between winters of 1870/71 and 1947/48 and how they compare with the more modern averages I showed before to see if the outcomes are similar or much different. Make what you want out of these charts.

Weak El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48            Weak El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

Almost a carbon copy here for weak El Nino winters with a block to our NW and a Euro trough. Not as good as moderate El Nino's for blocking but clearly a similar pattern can be seen for all weak El Nino winters.

Moderate El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48     Moderate El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

A number of winters to go on here and there's a fair amount of similarity with the pattern for moderate El Nino winters both pre 1948 and post 1948. All feature northern blocking with troughing through Europe. Seems to be a cold signal all round with moderate El Nino's.

Strong El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48           Strong El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

Another example where only 1 strong El Nino took place pre 1948. Has a similar outcome to the super Nino winter of 1877/78 and another high pressure borefest.

Super El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48            Super El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23

                  

Only 1 example to go on for super Nino's pre 1948 so not a lot can be read into this but winter 1877/78 looked to be a bit of a high pressure borefest looking at that.

Big difference in the strong El Niño analogues there…which suggests to me that there might be a bit of play should we indeed get one this year.

[Don]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Well you know my thoughts on this subject. However, there is always hope. Anybody know the ENSO status and QBO for the 46/47 winter?

Yes, always hope!  Little getting away from strong solar activity this coming winter.

[BruenSryan]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Well you know my thoughts on this subject. However, there is always hope. Anybody know the ENSO status and QBO for the 46/47 winter?

ENSO was neutral on the slightly positive side through the winter but barely negligible. QBO reconstruction showed a downwelling easterly QBO through 1946 and 1947.

[SqueakheartLW]

19 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

ENSO was neutral on the slightly positive side through the winter but barely negligible. QBO reconstruction showed a downwelling easterly QBO through 1946 and 1947.

Where did you get these charts from exactly?

[BruenSryan]

10 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Where did you get these charts from exactly?

Can you answer the same question I gave to you about your data please?

QBO reconstruction is from:

Just a moment...

AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

Unfortunately I don't have a source for the ENSO table, somebody just shared it with me back on Gavs comment box in the day which you were also on and I haven't felt the need to question it.

[SqueakheartLW]

55 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Can you answer the same question I gave to you about your data please?

QBO reconstruction is from:

Just a moment...

AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

Unfortunately I don't have a source for the ENSO table, somebody just shared it with me back on Gavs comment box in the day which you were also on and I haven't felt the need to question it.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data

In the above data series dating from as far back as 1870. The 1965 and 1966 rows look like this

1965 -0.57 -0.36 -0.34 -0.09 0.19 0.45 0.81 1.25 1.26 1.61 1.54 1.45

1966 1.13 0.83 0.83 0.54 -0.06 0.14 0.23 -0.10 -0.05 -0.05 -0.37 -0.26

A peak of +1.61C on this series