E.N.S.O. Discussion

summer blizzard · July 14, 2023

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Don't know why models keep insisting on a strong or super Nino then. The way this is going we may be already close to the peak of the event and we may stabilise around the +1 to +1.5C range

Most models have toned down their forecasts. CPC analysis suggests that bias adjusted there's about 30% chance of moderate and strong. Very little chance on any bias adjusted model of super status

Addicks Fan 1981 · July 14, 2023

It's a tough one @summer blizzardof how strong the niño will get and I wouldn't second guess at this stage. Did notice some of the blue members on 3.4 indicating a much stronger niño. The blue numbers are obviously the numbers to look out for.

SqueakheartLW · July 15, 2023

June 2023 region 3.4 anomaly of +0.88C for NOAA and +0.78C for tropical tidbits giving an average of +0.73C

Just for a bit of fun I have decided to look for ENSO events following a June region 3.4 anomaly between +0.53C and +1.13C to see how these events progressed onto an El Nino, if they failed or even went back to a La Nina later on in the year. The result is below

June Month Region 3.4 Anomaly Peak Month Region 3.4 anomaly ENSO Strength and position
June 1877 +0.98C December 1877   +2.49C Super El Nino EP
June 1982      +1.10C              January 1983 +2.79C Super El Nino EP
June 1972      +0.66C              December 1972   +2.19C Strong El Nino EP
June 1991      +0.71C              February 1992 +1.91C Strong El Nino CP
June 1902      +0.77C              November 1902 +1.54C Moderate El Nino   EP
June 1905      +0.59C              September 1905 +1.42C Moderate El Nino   CP
June 1940      +0.55C              March 1941 +1.41C Moderate El Nino   CP
June 1957      +0.53C              January 1958 +1.54C Moderate El Nino   CP
June 2002      +0.78C              November 2002 +1.62C Moderate El Nino   CP
June 1941      +0.88C              December 1941 +1.27C Weak El Nino EP

June 1900      +0.76C              ENSO Neutral Warmer N/A
June 1919      +0.61C              ENSO Neutral Warmer N/A
June 2019      +0.59C              ENSO Neutral Warmer N/A
June 1915      +1.10C              ENSO Neutral Neutral N/A
June 1926      +0.61C              ENSO Neutral Neutral N/A
June 1993      +0.63C              ENSO Neutral Neutral N/A
June 1878      +0.92C              ENSO Neutral Colder N/A

June 2017 +0.55C February 2018 -0.90C Weak La Nina EP

Of immediate note here is how most years went on to produce an El Nino which shows if you have weak El Nino status by June then there's a high probability that the later stages of the year will be El Nino unless coming off the back of a previous event. 10 of 18 went on to El Nino, 7 of 18 back to neutral and only 1 event went on to La Nina.

In focusing more on the 10 specific El Nino years it seems moderate or stronger is favoured with only 1 weak event shown but with moderate showing 5 of the 10 then this looks the clear favourite outcome. When coming to EP or CP it appears we have a definite 50/50 split here so this is very much a random chance and still up for grabs.

Addicks Fan 1981 · July 17, 2023

Update 17th July

Niño 1 and 2 3.4

Niño 3 1.6

Niño 3.4 1.1

Niño 4 0.7

SqueakheartLW · July 17, 2023

NINO 1+2 at or above 2.0C in June and eventual ENSO outcome later in the year

Another experimental assessment of mine for past events after seeing the latest NINO region anomalies and those rather ominous Region 1+2 figures that are just taking off at the moment made me wonder if any other years did this and what the eventual outcome of ENSO was later in the year. The result is below and includes where 2023 stands in comparison to the other events.

Year Warmest NINO 1+2 in June   NINO 3 in same June   Eventual late autumn/winter ENSO outcome
1997   +3.45C +1.71C Super El Nino EP
2023   +2.63C              +1.21C              ???????
2015   +2.54C              +1.66C              Super El Nino EP
1957   +2.25C              +0.90C              Moderate El Nino   CP
1972   +2.25C              +0.93C              Strong El Nino EP
1918   +2.02C              +0.80C              Moderate El Nino   EP

If we want to avoid a super Nino then the figures for 2023 at present look rather grim indeed as our June NINO 1+2 figure us right up there with the super Nino years of 1997 and 2015 and with some insane NINO 1+2 figures developing during July 2023 with the latest +3.4C figure and NINO 3 currently at +1.6C it isn't looking very promising at all and these figures are very much up with the warmest anomalies of past El Nino events that went on to become strong or super.

The only thing that we can cling onto here is that the June 2023 NINO 3 anomaly was less warm than both 1997 and 2015 although due to being above the moderate and strong years it doesn't remove the possibility of another super event. Also unfortunately it seems EP events are heavily favoured in this kind of setup as well with a 80% chance of EP El Nino.

Don · July 17, 2023

5 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

NINO 1+2 at or above 2.0C in June and eventual ENSO outcome later in the year

Another experimental assessment of mine for past events after seeing the latest NINO region anomalies and those rather ominous Region 1+2 figures that are just taking off at the moment made me wonder if any other years did this and what the eventual outcome of ENSO was later in the year. The result is below and includes where 2023 stands in comparison to the other events.

Year Warmest NINO 1+2 in June   NINO 3 in same June   Eventual late autumn/winter ENSO outcome
1997   +3.45C +1.71C Super El Nino EP
2023   +2.63C              +1.21C              ???????
2015   +2.54C              +1.66C              Super El Nino EP
1957   +2.25C              +0.90C              Moderate El Nino   CP
1972   +2.25C              +0.93C              Strong El Nino EP
1918   +2.02C              +0.80C              Moderate El Nino   EP

If we want to avoid a super Nino then the figures for 2023 at present look rather grim indeed as our June NINO 1+2 figure us right up there with the super Nino years of 1997 and 2015 and with some insane NINO 1+2 figures developing during July 2023 with the latest +3.4C figure and NINO 3 currently at +1.6C it isn't looking very promising at all and these figures are very much up with the warmest anomalies of past El Nino events that went on to become strong or super.

The only thing that we can cling onto here is that the June 2023 NINO 3 anomaly was less warm than both 1997 and 2015 although due to being above the moderate and strong years it doesn't remove the possibility of another super event. Also unfortunately it seems EP events are heavily favoured in this kind of setup as well with a 80% chance of EP El Nino.

Oh dear, a very sobering post!

With the current very warm Atlantic SST's, is there a chance of a 'December 2015 on steroids' IF we end up with a Super EP El Nino?!

northwestsnow · July 17, 2023

39 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, a very sobering post!

With the current very warm Atlantic SST's, is there a chance of a 'December 2015 on steroids' IF we end up with a Super EP El Nino?!

Yeah we don't want super !!

Hoping the eQBO will help us out.

Just wondering what the QBO was in 2015..

Don · July 17, 2023

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah we don't want super !!

Hoping the eQBO will help us out.

Just wondering what the QBO was in 2015..

Westerly I believe, so an E-QBO should help us out this year. However, it could well be over ridden by a Super Nino event!

Edited July 17, 2023 by Don

summer blizzard · July 17, 2023

I still lean against a super personally albeit it's probable that Nino 3 gets there but not the official 3.4 zone.

Current model forecasts have been upgrading again however this relies on a standing wave developing as forecast during August, that would the same standing wave forecast to develop in the traditional Nino zones since May.

QBO was positive from June 2015.

Don · July 17, 2023

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I still lean against a super personally albeit it's probable that Nino 3 gets there but not the official 3.4 zone.

Would likely still be bad news for cod winter seekers?

Addicks Fan 1981 · July 17, 2023

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah we don't want super !!

Hoping the eQBO will help us out.

Just wondering what the QBO was in 2015..

The QBO in 2015 begun in an easterly mode, but ended up westerly which is part of why we had our unusually warm December of 5 degrees above average.

Cheshire Freeze · July 17, 2023

I’d have thought that with a mature E QBO, even if we get a strong Nino event then any SSW could be extremely impactful? Think of a giant balloon stretched to its limit going pop?

Something is leading the modelling into signalling a weaker than average PV. There’s scant evidence of a Euro HP on nearly all of the seasonal models so far. This is significant because they’re effectively going against historic analogues for strong Nino…historic analogues which will be programmed into them. They will be leaning heavily on those analogues at this lead time- there’s a strong counter signal somewhere.

I do wonder if we’re looking at the potential for an early warming. Something that only really becomes possible/impactful if there’s an early trop-strat coupling…something which of course could be caused by a strong Nino…

Edited July 17, 2023 by CreweCold

northwestsnow · July 17, 2023

16 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The QBO in 2015 begun in an easterly mode, but ended up westerly which is part of why we had our unusually warm December of 5 degrees above average.

Trying to find data for 1997 ,but can't..

Addicks Fan 1981 · July 17, 2023

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Trying to find data for 1997 ,but can't..

1997 was basically the same as 2015 for the QBO. I've sent a message to you.

Cheshire Freeze · July 17, 2023

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

1997 was basically the same as 2015 for the QBO. I've sent a message to you.

So we’ve only known super Ninos in recent times that have been coupled with a westerly QBO.

I have a suspicion that under a mature E QBO there’s a possibility that a strong Nino has the potential to produce the snowiest scenario the UK can experience (a strong S arm of jet running under a cold undercut to the N & NE). Most likely requires a lot of luck though.

If December is cold this year then I’d wager that winter as a whole will be in the cold/snowy category. December really will be the litmus test I feel.

northwestsnow · July 18, 2023

Interesting 97 and 15 were wQbo.

I wonder how much data we have when a strong Nino eQbo combo is in play.

StretfordEnd1996 · July 18, 2023

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Interesting 97 and 15 were wQbo.

I wonder how much data we have when a strong Nino eQbo combo is in play.

I've been unable to locate QBO data for prior to the 1960s/70s I wouldn't be surprised if there is no record or historical data of this anywhere though someone may want to correct me.

With that in mind - there are only two periods in the last 50-60 or so years that match (or go near to) a strong El Nino along with a strong stable eQBO - 1991-92 and 2009-10. El Nino in 1991-92 was a touch stronger than 2009-10 although in all honestly I don't know if they can be classed as 'strong'. Perhaps more on the moderate side.

Other years which had a combination of El Nino and eQBO albeit, not of strong bases (in contrast to as above), are 1986-87, and 2014-15 - the latter of which only just reached the threshold of qualifying as an El Nino event (before towards 15-16 it increased dramatically in strength).

As said I cannot find any data particularly for QBO prior to 70sish

SqueakheartLW · July 18, 2023

20 hours ago, Don said:

Westerly I believe, so an E-QBO should help us out this year. However, it could well be over ridden by a Super Nino event!

Not seen a combination of Super Nino and EQBO. No idea about the 1877/78 event as there's no record of the QBO that far back but we can go by the 3 most recent super Nino events.

1982/83

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1982 -12.52 -14.71 -16.67 -15.55 -15.26 -15.94 -8.95 -1.58 +4.21 +8.27 +9.51 +10.35

1983 +10.85 +11.40 +12.17 +13.81 +11.93 +3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42

Turned to WQBO before the winter so winter 1982/83 Super Nino and WQBO influenced

1997/98

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1997 -3.57 +1.94 +4.77 +9.74 +12.37 +14.50 +14.85 +11.69 +11.64 +9.91 +5.74 +0.78

1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96

WQBO for most of 1997 before transitioning to weak EQBO by mid to late winter 1997/98. Too late to influence the season so very much Super Nino and WQBO driven again.

2015/16

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.33 +2.18 +7.45 +10.97 +12.07 +13.38 +12.79 +11.39

2016 +9.34 +6.77 +3.16 +0.64 +2.37 +3.86 +6.25 +10.07 +10.48 +12.83 +14.16 +15.09

Transition from EQBO to WQBO during mid 2015. Strong WQBO by winter 2015/16 so yet another Super Nino and WQBO combination.

No idea what effect a Super Nino combined with EQBO will have as there's no recorded incident of this type so a total unknown. Maybe EQBO could either help create a new Super Nino which is modoki (CP) based instead or it will fight against the Nino, resulting in a more moderate event in the end.

SqueakheartLW · July 18, 2023

9 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I've been unable to locate QBO data for prior to the 1960s/70s I wouldn't be surprised if there is no record or historical data of this anywhere though someone may want to correct me.

With that in mind - there are only two periods in the last 50-60 or so years that match (or go near to) a strong El Nino along with a strong stable eQBO - 1991-92 and 2009-10. El Nino in 1991-92 was a touch stronger than 2009-10 although in all honestly I don't know if they can be classed as 'strong'. Perhaps more on the moderate side.

Other years which had a combination of El Nino and eQBO albeit, not of strong bases (in contrast to as above), are 1986-87, and 2014-15 - the latter of which only just reached the threshold of qualifying as an El Nino event (before towards 15-16 it increased dramatically in strength).

As said I cannot find any data particularly for QBO prior to 70sish

QBO

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data - This QBO data goes back to 1948

ENSO

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices - More modern ENSO data back to 1982

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino4.long.anom.data - NINO 4 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data - NINO 3.4 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino3.long.anom.data - NINO 3 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data - NINO 1+2 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/ - A useful website with lots of data series on it. This is also where the ENSO data from 1870 to current times is also found.

Edited July 18, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

Cheshire Freeze · July 18, 2023

16 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Not seen a combination of Super Nino and EQBO. No idea about the 1877/78 event as there's no record of the QBO that far back but we can go by the 3 most recent super Nino events.

1982/83

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1982 -12.52 -14.71 -16.67 -15.55 -15.26 -15.94 -8.95 -1.58 +4.21 +8.27 +9.51 +10.35

1983 +10.85 +11.40 +12.17 +13.81 +11.93 +3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42

Turned to WQBO before the winter so winter 1982/83 Super Nino and WQBO influenced

1997/98

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1997 -3.57 +1.94 +4.77 +9.74 +12.37 +14.50 +14.85 +11.69 +11.64 +9.91 +5.74 +0.78

1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96

WQBO for most of 1997 before transitioning to weak EQBO by mid to late winter 1997/98. Too late to influence the season so very much Super Nino and WQBO driven again.

2015/16

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.33 +2.18 +7.45 +10.97 +12.07 +13.38 +12.79 +11.39

2016 +9.34 +6.77 +3.16 +0.64 +2.37 +3.86 +6.25 +10.07 +10.48 +12.83 +14.16 +15.09

Transition from EQBO to WQBO during mid 2015. Strong WQBO by winter 2015/16 so yet another Super Nino and WQBO combination.

No idea what effect a Super Nino combined with EQBO will have as there's no recorded incident of this type so a total unknown. Maybe EQBO could either help create a new Super Nino which is modoki (CP) based instead or it will fight against the Nino, resulting in a more moderate event in the end.

I actually have my doubts whether it’s possible to get a super Nino under a mature EQBO.

I also have a feeling that ultimately 09/10 may be a very good match come winter.

We’ll see I guess.

Don · July 18, 2023

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I actually have my doubts whether it’s possible to get a super Nino under a mature EQBO.

I also have a feeling that ultimately 09/10 may be a very good match come winter.

We’ll see I guess.

One big difference for this coming winter compared to 2009/10 is solar activity, as we will be nearing maximum, whereas in 2009, we were just passed minimum, which is thought to have contributed to the cold winter.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Don

StretfordEnd1996 · July 19, 2023

13 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

QBO

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data - This QBO data goes back to 1948

ENSO

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices - More modern ENSO data back to 1982

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino4.long.anom.data - NINO 4 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data - NINO 3.4 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino3.long.anom.data - NINO 3 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data - NINO 1+2 back to 1870

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/ - A useful website with lots of data series on it. This is also where the ENSO data from 1870 to current times is also found.

Ahh thank you I appreciate you sending over these links.

SqueakheartLW · July 19, 2023

On 18/07/2023 at 19:32, CreweCold said:

I actually have my doubts whether it’s possible to get a super Nino under a mature EQBO.

I also have a feeling that ultimately 09/10 may be a very good match come winter.

We’ll see I guess.

Do wonder if there is a link between the EQBO and CP El Nino's. Take a look at 2009 and 2010 as the example

What starts off as an initial what looks like a developing EP El Nino during the spring and early summer of 2009 happens whilst still under the WQBO but almost as soon as the EQBO begins the anomalies start warming further west in the Pacific and as the EQBO strengthens the warmest anomalies shift away from the east and into more central and western parts of the Pacific.

It can also be seen how winter 2010/11 went to pieces after the cold December. The strong La Nina as well as WQBO probably acted together to finish off the cold after December 2010.

Don · July 19, 2023

55 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

It can also be seen how winter 2010/11 went to pieces after the cold December. The strong La Nina as well as WQBO probably acted together to finish off the cold after December 2010.

Glacier Point from October 2010 was bullish that the winter would start cold, but switch to a milder pattern by the New Year. A very impressive winter 2010/11 forecast from him indeed!

Edited July 19, 2023 by Don

SqueakheartLW · July 19, 2023

Added some more QBO vs ENSO information and data for everyone to read here. Have been looking to see if there is indeed any link between the QBO leading up to the winter as well as the ENSO status as well as position in the Pacific.

Firstly I have a list of all of the ENSO events from 1954 onwards in order of strength from strongest El Nino's right down to strongest La Nina's with the QBO direction and strength in the autumn preceding the winter.

A whole mixture here with a range of QBO directions and strengths throughout the list but I did a closer look at specific categories to see if there is any link.

Average QBO speed under each ENSO status

This was a general blanket assessment under El Nino, Neutral and La Nina. The result is below.

What is of immediate interest here is how the more we head in the direction of El Nino the more likely we are to be more WQBO influenced with a less negative number and as we head in the direction of La Nina we are slightly more EQBO biased.

This tells little but does hint that:

EQBO fights against El Nino
EQBO favours La Nina
WQBO favours El Nino
WQBO fights against La Nina

Average QBO speed under specific El Nino's and La Nina's

Now for something a bit more specific and should show up any further links. How does each El Nino type and La Nina type link up with the QBO

What is immediately obvious here is how both CP El Nino and EP La Nina are more likely with an EQBO in place whilst EP El Nino and CP La Nina are more likely with WQBO.

This tells us a bit more now and hints

EQBO favours both CP El Nino and EP La Nina
EQBO fights against EP El Nino and CP La Nina
WQBO favours EP El Nino and CP La Nina
WQBO fights against CP El Nino and EP La Nina

Average QBO speed under each specific El Nino type

Now for the most relevant for 2023 as El Nino looks all but certain now. Which El Nino type and QBO speed and direction go together. The result is below.

The most immediate obvious thing here is how in general CP events go with EQBO and EP events with WQBO. The strong EP and CP events are based on very few El Nino's so might not be that representative but the rest have enough events to go on.

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