E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 10/06/2023 at 11:03, summer blizzard said:

31MAY2022: Nino3: 1.1 , Nino3.4: 0.8 , Nino4: 0.6

Nino really starting to progress now then?

[summer blizzard]

07 JUN2022: Nino3: 1.2 , Nino3.4: 0.9 , Nino4: 0.7

12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Nino really starting to progress now then?

We saw a WWB pass the central and eastern pacific during the first third of June. This is being replaced by easterlies for now.

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

14JUN2022: Nino3: 1.2 , Nino3.4: 0.9 , Nino4: 0.7

Also forgot to add that May had an ONI of 0.52. 

[summer blizzard]

Also forgot to add that MAM came in at +0.1

[summer blizzard]

To update on our ENSO trades index, May still came in at +0.4 which suggests that we are riding on the coattails of a warm sub-surface rather than significant atmospheric coupling. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

Still recorded mean easterlies in May near the dateline. 

To compare to our analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

2023: +0.4

 

1986: 0.0

2002: -0.3

2009: 0.0

2014: -0.5

2018: 0.1

 

Remember that our analysis last month showed a corellation between how early the event coupled and eventual strength so this may be another sign that the models are OTT (i still lean in the +1.3 to +1.7 range). 

[summer blizzard]

On 03/05/2023 at 18:00, summer blizzard said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

Still recorded mean easterlies in April near the dateline. 

To compare to our analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

2023: +0.5

 

1985: +0.8

1986: +0.4

2001: +0.6

2002: +0.2

2009: +0.5

2012: +0.6

2014: 0.0

2018: +0.7

 

Middle of the road then in terms of pace development. 1997 and 1983 already had mean westerlies and so were coupling to the atmosphere much better. 

 

1985: Coupled from October, did not product Nino

1986: Sustained from July, Nino from September (moderate)

2001: Did not couple sustainably, did not produce Nino. 

2002: Coupled between May-Oct, Nino from June (Moderate)

2009: Coupled from May, Nino from July (strong)

2012: Did not couple sustainably, did not produce Nino. 

2014: Coupled in July, Nino from October (weak)

2018: Coupled between Aug-Nov, Nino from Sept (weak)

 

So if we get rid of 1985, 2001 and 2012 for failing to produce an event then it looks like our post-79 set all coupled between May-August and generally, the earlier, the stronger. 

 

 

On 08/05/2023 at 21:30, summer blizzard said:

Our updated list for FMA.

1957: +0.4

1972: +0.1

1976: -0.7

1986: -0.3

2002: +0.1

2009: -0.6

2014: -0.3

2018: -0.7

 

1956: -0.6

1985: -0.8

2001: -0.4

2012: -0.6

 

2023: -0.2

We were third highest last month. We have dropped to 4th this month meaning that 2009 becomes our peak at +1.6.

To update our list and ranking. 

Our updated list for MAM.

1957: +0.7

1972: +0.4

1976: -0.5

1986: -0.2

2002: +0.2

2009: -0.3

2014: 0.0

2018: -0.5

 

2023: +0.1

 

NOAA actually updated FMA to -0.1 which meant we went from third to joint second rather than 4th however this month we did drop to 4th. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by summer blizzard

[SqueakheartLW]

EL Nino isn't developing as rapidly as either CFS or ECM predicted and in all NINO regions we are already trending less warm with the anomalies than predicted.

In the above table I have shown what both ECM and CFS predicted for NINO anomalies in each region alongside what actually happened in the end in May 2023. Every single value was cooler than predicted, especially further east in the equatorial Pacific.

This is reflected in the latest CFS predictions which have toned down the event a bit more. At the start of May the CFS was going for a region 3.4 peak of +2.6C.

Latest region 3.4 CFS forecast

Now the CFS is only going for a peak of around +1.8C, removing the super Nino threat entirely. This is good news for cold winter lovers who want to avoid a December 2015 repeat. I would like this +1.8C to drop a little further to be fair and if region 3 can drop a lot more too to make this more of a CP event then we may be in with a chance.

June 2023 so far

At the start of the month these were the predictions for each month right up to December 2023 from both ECM and CFS.

Still going for a strong to super event here they both were at the start of the month but as we know from above CFS has been toning down the event further.

The main thing is how both were going for region 3.4 in June to be around the +1.0C to +1.1C mark. The recent data I have gathered from tropical tidbits and the daily values suggest both of these predictions are going to be overestimates.

So far all figures for June 2023 have come in under +1.0C and with only 10 days of the month to go I can't see how we are going to get anywhere close to +1.0C unless we see a massive warmup and in fact we would need to average at +1.48C for all 10 days to even break even at +1.0C so I think we are most definitely going to fall short of the predictions yet again.

More support for how the models were overdoing things and increases the chances that this event may end up coming in at moderate.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

More support for how the models were overdoing things and increases the chances that this event may end up coming in at moderate.

We also need it to develop into a Modoki event as even a moderate basin wide El Nino would still not be great news for winter, particularly early on.  However, with the record breaking warm oceans currently, we are likely to be in unchartered territory!

[SqueakheartLW]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

We also need it to develop into a Modoki event as even a moderate basin wide El Nino would still not be great news for winter, particularly early on.  However, with the record breaking warm oceans currently, we are likely to be in unchartered territory!

I do also wonder if EQBO fights against super El Nino's as all 3 super events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 all came under neutral or WQBO regimes.

[Don]

30 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I do also wonder if EQBO fights against super El Nino's as all 3 super events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 all came under neutral or WQBO regimes.

Not sure as I believe a Super El Nino has the ability to pretty much override all other teleconnections?

[sebastiaan1973]

According to Eric Webb it is East-based. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmm.... can I remember warning folk, back in the mid-noughties just what we had to come if we didn't take immediate & meaningful action.....oh how you all scorned.....now we have our own 'Ocean Heatwave to our West & an Aussie Nino forecast like never before.....

Strap in folks!

(* So pleased the E.U. built our Flood defenses here!!!.....hope You all got yours.....)

[sebastiaan1973]

5. Conclusions
The present work investigated the different ENSO impacts on the NAO during early and late winter and the possible roles of various mechanisms. Our observational analyses support the finding of the subseasonal variation in the ENSO-NAO linkage and identify the crucial physical processes responsible for the phase shift in NAO during ENSO early and late winters. During El Niño early winter, the North Atlantic experiences a positive NAO-like pattern of atmospheric pressure due to the weakening of the tropical Walker circulation and the associated alteration in the meridional circulation over the North Atlantic. However, the North Atlantic is dominated by a negative NAO-like atmospheric response over the North Atlantic during El Niño late winter. The phase shift in the NAO response to ENSO is closely related to the ENSO-induced NTA SST anomalies in late winter. During El Niño late winter, there appears obvious SST warming over the NTA, which can excite the local convection and thus, generate a negative NAO response. Moreover, the full establishment of the PNA teleconnection in late winter could also make some contribution to the simultaneous negative ENSO-NAO relationship. The strongly enhanced positive PNA teleconnection could partially account for the negative NAO response during El Niño late winter, but its effect is confined to the western edge of the NAO. Similar mechanisms work during La Niña. The understanding of different mechanisms for the subseasonal variation in the ENSO-NAO relationship from early to late winter provides useful information for seasonal prediction over the North Atlantic–European region.

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/2/47

Edited June 20, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[SqueakheartLW]

CFS has yet again reduced the peak of the El Nino event and now has it peaking at +1.7C

What is of more interest is how the older members (Red Lines) are higher up whilst the more recent members (Blue Lines) are even lower with the peak.

SOI Dashboard

SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government

WWW.LONGPADDOCK.QLD.GOV.AU

What I have also noticed here is the 30 day running SOI mean and how it has in general become less negative throughout June. This could also explain the further toning down of this event and how we are now predicted to peak almost 1C lower than the initial prediction of +2.6C, now down to +1.7C

Current late Autumn El Nino anomaly values at time of NINO 3.4 peak from latest CFS forecast.

Nino 4 = +1.3C

Nino 3.4 = +1.7C

NINO 3 = +1.8C

NINO 1+2 = +1.2C

Still not really a CP event yet as we need NINO 3 to cool down a bit more but at least it looks like a super El Nino is currently off completely and it is now looking more marginal for a strong event now but very good support for a stronger end of moderate El Nino at present.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

CFS has yet again reduced the peak of the El Nino event and now has it peaking at +1.7C

What is of more interest is how the older members (Red Lines) are higher up whilst the more recent members (Blue Lines) are even lower with the peak.

SOI Dashboard

SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government

WWW.LONGPADDOCK.QLD.GOV.AU

What I have also noticed here is the 30 day running SOI mean and how it has in general become less negative throughout June. This could also explain the further toning down of this event and how we are now predicted to peak almost 1C lower than the initial prediction of +2.6C, now down to +1.7C

Current late Autumn El Nino anomaly values at time of NINO 3.4 peak from latest CFS forecast.

Nino 4 = +1.3C

Nino 3.4 = +1.7C

NINO 3 = +1.8C

NINO 1+2 = +1.2C

Still not really a CP event yet as we need NINO 3 to cool down a bit more but at least it looks like a super El Nino is currently off completely and it is now looking more marginal for a strong event now but very good support for a stronger end of moderate El Nino at present.

If we could just get a moderate CP Nino, we could be all set this coming winter.

A moderate Nino (especially a CP one) tends to correlate to a Euro trough I believe. Funnily enough the Dec height anomalies have, over the past day or so, started to introduce a Dec Euro LP anomaly. Coincidence? 

The recent daddy of the euro-trough? 09-10.

Something like this would suffice

P.s the England cold record would probably go under that set up (somewhere sheltered under the slack flow in the S)...We can but dream eh...

Edited June 25, 2023 by CreweCold

[blizzard81]

I'm also liking the cfs precipitation anomalies for the coming winter. The trend is clear and getting stronger. Just look at the strong anomaly down towards the adriatic. Let's hope this trend gains traction as we count down the months. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm also liking the cfs precipitation anomalies for the coming winter. The trend is clear and getting stronger. Just look at the strong anomaly down towards the adriatic. Let's hope this trend gains traction as we count down the months. 

Yes the Euro trough is a recent signal which seems to be gathering pace as the super Nino signal fades.

[SqueakheartLW]

On 25/06/2023 at 04:08, CreweCold said:

If we could just get a moderate CP Nino, we could be all set this coming winter.

A moderate Nino (especially a CP one) tends to correlate to a Euro trough I believe. Funnily enough the Dec height anomalies have, over the past day or so, started to introduce a Dec Euro LP anomaly. Coincidence? 

The recent daddy of the euro-trough? 09-10.

Something like this would suffice

P.s the England cold record would probably go under that set up (somewhere sheltered under the slack flow in the S)...We can but dream eh...

 

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm also liking the cfs precipitation anomalies for the coming winter. The trend is clear and getting stronger. Just look at the strong anomaly down towards the adriatic. Let's hope this trend gains traction as we count down the months. 

It could be the combination of possible moderate El Nino in conjunction with EQBO and maybe even a SSW on top too. Keep your fingers crossed that the CFS is onto something here.

Although having said that it is the CFS after all and we know how reliable it can be don't we LOL

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

It could be the combination of possible moderate El Nino in conjunction with EQBO and maybe even a SSW on top too. Keep your fingers crossed that the CFS is onto something here.

Although having said that it is the CFS after all and we know how reliable it can be don't we LOL

It has had the November SSW precursor pattern showing for a while now (weeks). 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm also liking the cfs precipitation anomalies for the coming winter. The trend is clear and getting stronger. Just look at the strong anomaly down towards the adriatic. Let's hope this trend gains traction as we count down the months. 

Not a prediction, but I'm getting 2009 vibes...

[summer blizzard]

21JUN2022: Nino3: 1.4 , Nino3.4: 1.0 , Nino4: 0.7

[blizzard81]

On 26/06/2023 at 23:16, damianslaw said:

Not a prediction, but I'm getting 2009 vibes...

I do hope your vibes are near the mark. 

[sebastiaan1973]

A nice read https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-growing-consensus-for-strong-el.html

[SqueakheartLW]

9 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A nice read https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-growing-consensus-for-strong-el.html

As you said, a nice read, especially if what they say about the El Nino becoming more CP based with time.

Another possible stepping stone to a 2009/10 repeat with the EQBO predicted this winter too.

High solar could be the issue here so 2002/03 could be a better match. It had EQBO and CP El Nino.

[sebastiaan1973]

Well, I'm not a native English speaker, but I read basin wide in his article. And here too ->

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59041-2023-2024-winterenso-disco/page/5/#comments