E.N.S.O. Discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The PDO is an important point. The 14-16 event was arguably aided by the fact that the PDO was positive during the event. There are events which have not seen the same coupling of the tropical and extra-tropical atmosphere. There's simply no way to tell at the moment whether the current PDO event will fight or submit. 

- We are actually in a very negative PDO event Gray. Indeed the data indicates that we've basically been in a broader -PDO state since 2006 with only the 14-16 period recording +1 PDO values. You could argue we started this phase in the late 90's.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

99-01 - Negative

02-05 - Neutral/Mixed

06-13 - Negative

14-16 - Positive

20-P - Negative

Maybe the El Nino and the -PDO will fight against each other resulting in one of the following

• A weaker El Nino event - Weak or moderate most likely
• A CP event instead of an EP one
• A total collapse of the entire development of the El Nino like 2012 and 2017 for example
• A possible but very unlikely scenario that we somehow end up back at La Nina for a 4th year in a row

[summer blizzard]

29 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe the El Nino and the -PDO will fight against each other resulting in one of the following

• A weaker El Nino event - Weak or moderate most likely
• A CP event instead of an EP one
• A total collapse of the entire development of the El Nino like 2012 and 2017 for example
• A possible but very unlikely scenario that we somehow end up back at La Nina for a 4th year in a row

Agreed, none of those would surprise me bar the later.

I personally do suspect that we will peak at weak or moderate, I rule out a collapse now simply because the waters in the western Pacific are so warm and we no longer have a Nina standing wave (essentially it's hard to see where a collapse would come from though possible).

A -PDO actually favours east based Nino events because the cold anomalies tend to blow west. That said, I actually suspect this will become a basin wide or west based event given that Nino 1.2 is normally quite volatile and there's a lot of sub-surface support to the west. 

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe the El Nino and the -PDO will fight against each other resulting in one of the following

• A weaker El Nino event - Weak or moderate most likely
• A CP event instead of an EP one
• A total collapse of the entire development of the El Nino like 2012 and 2017 for example
• A possible but very unlikely scenario that we somehow end up back at La Nina for a 4th year in a row

Options 2 and 3 sound like the best scenarios?

[summer blizzard]

So for those getting excited about some monster east based Nino, the Euro is as historically is the case forecasting the Nino standing wave to develop during May a little west of the dateline. This is fairly close to the historic norm and suggests a basin wide/west based lean over time. 

 

[Don]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

So for those getting excited about some monster east based Nino

Not me, I'm hoping for a Modiki in time for winter seeing as an El Nino is very likely now!

[SqueakheartLW]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

So for those getting excited about some monster east based Nino, the Euro is as historically is the case forecasting the Nino standing wave to develop during May a little west of the dateline. This is fairly close to the historic norm and suggests a basin wide/west based lean over time. 

 

2 hours ago, Don said:

Not me, I'm hoping for a Modiki in time for winter seeing as an El Nino is very likely now!

Perhaps winter 2023/24 isn't written off after all

With the expected EQBO and a possible CP El Nino we already tick 2 boxes that we did in 2009

These SSTA charts don't really look like a favourable pattern to get an EP El Nino either. The Indian Ocean looks like it is still in a slightly -IOD state which to me would fight against an EP El Nino. Also all that warm water near Australia doesn't look right for an EP event either.

You'd expect all of the warm anomalies to be shifting east if it is going to be an EP event. There are many EP events that leave below average anomalies in the western Pacific.

The typical EP El Nino signature with colder than average waters to the west compared with the CP El Nino below

Less colder anomalies in the west here and very much near average in the east too. This is the one we want to see, not the first one.

Edited April 15, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[summer blizzard]

Since our standing wave may form in May pushing 3.4 up fairly swiftly one imagines, i thought i'd take a look at my preferred Nino analogue set and find out when the events got declared by ONI. 

1957: MAM

1972: AMJ

1976: ASO

1986: ASO

2002: MJJ

2009: JJA

2014: SON

2018: ASO

It seems unlikely that April will deliver an ONI value outside neutral bounds which sugguests that MJJ may be most likely. 

Worth saying that the MEI basically considers 2014 and 2018 to be fake events that never coupled persistantly (i'm somewhat sympathetic to this for the 2018-2019 event which i regard as a +IOD event primarily - the standing wave was in the Indian Ocean). 

Edited April 16, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Dreckly]

From NOAA

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[summer blizzard]

12APR2022: Nino3: 0.4 , Nino3.4: 0.1 , Nino4: 0.2

[summer blizzard]

Updated Pacific forecasts have the trades a bit stronger for longer so if the standing wave sets up, it's likely to be in the second half of May.

[summer blizzard]

19APR2022: Nino3: 0.6, Nino3.4: 0.3 , Nino4: 0.3

Easterlies forecast to strengthen over the coming week or two in the Pacific which should cool 1.2 however it may initially at least actually spread some of that warmth west so for those wanting Nino, it's not a bad thing so long as they don't persist. 

Edited April 25, 2023 by summer blizzard

[SqueakheartLW]

On 22/04/2023 at 16:09, summer blizzard said:

Updated Pacific forecasts have the trades a bit stronger for longer so if the standing wave sets up, it's likely to be in the second half of May.

Bring it on. Anything to help go against the horrendous CFS Super Nino forecast and prove them wrong.

Region 3.4

Region 1+2

Makes for rather grim reading if you want a cold winter for 2023/24

PDO

What could work in our favour to prevent a Super Nino is the PDO and in recent months it has been in a strongly negative phase which could work against the El Nino

Below I have a table showing the averaged out PDO over the course of a year then to the right of it is the ENSO status that developed during that particular year.

A very clear and obvious trend can be seen where the more negative the PDO over that year the greater the chance of La Nina or cold ENSO events in general and the more positive the PDO the greater the chance of El Nino or warmer ENSO events.

In fact if we take just the years with PDO values at or lower than -1.000 we have a total of 37 years divided up as follows:

ENSO Status     Total           Type of ENSO                                                                                                        

La Nina's           24/37          Weak LN    11/24       Mod LN     9/24          Strong LN     4/24

Neutral's           10/37          N Warm     1/10          Neutral     4/10          N Cold     5/10

El Nino's            3/37            Weak EN    1/3            Mod EN    1/3            St EN        1/3        Sp EN     0/3

Quite a clear signal here for La Nina and if the current running averaged out PDO value for 2023 is sustained for the rest of the year then a value of -1.750 would rule out an El Nino entirely and the warmest the ENSO region would likely get would be a repeat of 2012 at Neutral

[summer blizzard]

Personally I consider CFS Nino forecasts to be a bunch of rubbish. I can't remember when they were ever right, they amplify any signal. 

While people are getting excited over being more advanced than years like 97, what they ignore is the fact that the westerlies are less anomalous which means the gradient increase is much slower. Playing around, I consider 1.7 to be the current ceiling and I suspect that will drop.

Edited April 25, 2023 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

To further illustrate why people are being selective and far too excited I have borrowed a post from American WX (curtosy of Bluewave) highlighting that The 180-100 west sub-surface reading is around +1 this month. 2015 was +1.74 and 1997 was +2.17.

[Don]

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Personally I consider CFS Nino forecasts to be a bunch of rubbish. I can't remember when they were ever right, they amplify any signal. 

I don't know, I thought the CFS has done quite well with its La Nina predictions the last few years?

[SqueakheartLW]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't know, I thought the CFS has done quite well with its La Nina predictions the last few years?

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Personally I consider CFS Nino forecasts to be a bunch of rubbish. I can't remember when they were ever right, they amplify any signal. 

Although you can't rule it out that CFS could have nailed it this time it does have backing from ECM too which is going for a possible Super Nino too although not to +2.5C like CFS is doing.

Having said that I remember CFS going for a Super Nina in 2020 only for us to end up dipping to Moderate in the end.

I think in 2020 there was one brief moment where we started crashing the anomalies down to -1.7C and at that point it looked like CFS had nailed the possible Super Nina prediction only for it to move back to around -1.3C within a week or two.

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Don said:

I don't know, I thought the CFS has done quite well with its La Nina predictions the last few years?

They get the 'it will be a Nina or Nino' right but most models including the CFS notably are generally rubbish at amplitude.

Edited April 26, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Gray-Wolf]

 

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm lots of sources suggesting a strong Nino which to my limited knowledge is not good news for coldies.

Wildcard perhaps a developing e QBO but that combination I'm not entirely sure how that plays out historically...

Edit 1998 was a strong el nino but had a west QBO so perhaps not an ideal analogue..

Edited May 1, 2023 by northwestsnow

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm lots of sources suggesting a strong Nino which to my limited knowledge is not good news for coldies.

Wildcard perhaps a developing e QBO but that combination I'm not entirely sure how that plays out historically...

Edit 1998 was a strong el nino but had a west QBO so perhaps not an ideal analogue..

There is a lag affect, and its imprint may well not set in until after winter. 

[SqueakheartLW]

8 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm lots of sources suggesting a strong Nino which to my limited knowledge is not good news for coldies.

Wildcard perhaps a developing e QBO but that combination I'm not entirely sure how that plays out historically...

Edit 1998 was a strong el nino but had a west QBO so perhaps not an ideal analogue..

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There is a lag affect, and its imprint may well not set in until after winter. 

Not convinced we'll get anything above moderate at the highest to be fair although you never know what the atmosphere might do and if it couples up with the rising sub surface warm anomalies or fights against it but based on historical events the combination of a La Nina the previous season and a very negative PDO generally goes against the development of an El Nino although it can happen.

January to March average PDO's at or below -1.000

Take a good look at the data in the table I have created showing all of the years between 1870 and 2022 that featured average PDO values between January and March of -1.000 or lower. The first notable thing is just how many of those January to March periods came off the back of a La Nina. Of the 40 years we have data for here including 2022/23, 27 of the 40 were La Nina events and of the remaining 13 only 2 were El Nino's and they were weak ones too. The remaining 11 years were ENSO neutral, most on the colder side of neutral too.

The important part in regards to what could happen this year in the development of ENSO is the next columns to the right of the previous ENSO events section. Only 39 years feature here of course as we don't know how 2023 will pan out yet but of these 39 years with January to March PDO's averaging at or below -1.000, 22 of the 39 years went either back into or into a La Nina event, 9 went on to be neutral and 8 El Nino's.

Breaking it down for the years that went to El Nino which is the prediction for this year 3 were weak, 3 moderate and 2 strong events but of important note here is that there are NO SUPER NINO EVENTS following any year that has an average Jan to March PDO value of -1.000 or lower. There is however bad news for coldies that the El Nino's favour EP events over CP ones by 4 to 2 with basin wide just 1 of the 7 EL Nino years.

Winter CET's of the above years

When looking at what all of this means for the winter CET's the results very much come out close to average for all of the months with only small variations between them. Only a very weak cold signal for Januaries, weakly milder than average in the Februaries with Decembers basically average.

January to March average PDO's between -1.500 and -2.000

To make things more relevant to this year I have removed all the years except for the -1.500 to -2.000 ones to make things more relevant to this year with the average -1.750 PDO value average from Jan to March 2023.

As with the previous wider set most previous ENSO years are La Nina events again and of the other years they are mainly neutral with just 1 El Nino year featured.

How does this more relevant narrower range of years affect the ENSO outcomes for the following season. We see 7 of 12 years go into a La Nina so in theory 2023 has a 58.333% chance of returning a 4th year Nina in a row with neutral making up 3 of the 12 year or 25.000% and El Nino  just 2 of the 12 at 16.667% so the odds are stacked against an El Nino for 2023 based on these figures.

Focusing on the 2 El Nino years we have 2009 and 1972 with one moderate CP event and a strong EP event. I know which of those 2 years I would rather pick as winter 1972/73 was generally mild whilst 2009/10 was colder.

Winter CET's of the more relevant years above

It would seem getting this more relevant selection of years is good news for coldies as it has pushed the CET anomaly values in a colder direction, especially for Decembers which are now -0.53C below normal with a less cold signal for Januaries. The Februaries do have a slight milder signal but the colder December signal means the overall winter signal is colder than the first wider selection of years.

Keeping just the Moderate and Weak La Nina as well as neutral cold previous ENSO years from the above section

To make things even more relevant I have narrowed the list down now to Mod and weak La Nina as well as cold neutral the previous season combined with Jan to Mar PDO average values between -1.500 and -2.000 and this leaves just 8 years in total as shown below.

Still odds on for us to return to a La Nina with 4 of the 8 years doing so but we do see 1 neutral year as well as those 2 El Nino years that were in the previous section.

The main thing of note is now there are NO SUPER NINO's in sight here and if we do go to El Nino it seems we have at least a 50% chance of a colder than average winter but it looks like we need to at least get the event to a CP one rather than an EP one and it looks like moderate/strong is the most likely El Nino outcome.

Winter CET's based on the 8 years above

It seems that the odds have moved just a bit further in the direction of a colder than average winter with an even colder December signal and with the mild February signal very much eliminated then a mid winter looks unlikely based on the average anomalies of the years bit there are some milder winters in there (1873/74, 1882/83 and 1972/73) which are basically slightly outdone by the colder years (1950/51, 2009/10 and 2012/13) with 2022/23 very much the average outlier.

Summary

Due to the 5 years that fail to get to El Nino or event stay at or return to La Nina I would personally favour a moderate event over a strong one and wouldn't rule out the possibility we end up with just a weak El Nino in the end, probably near the +1C anomaly mark which could threaten the possibility that we do end up with a moderate event in the end. As for CP vs EP it is very much up for debate here with what looks like a 50/50 chance on the odds.

However these predictions of some monster Super EP event look to be sensational headline grabbing events to get the viewers and readers in and they are based on the very warm NINO 1+2 anomalies at present and like in many years this happens they get warm around this time of year then cool down during the summer to some degree if the event end up EP and even more so if we end up going CP.

[summer blizzard]

We should start to get a read on the real potential of the event pretty soon.

Models are now forecasting the development of a significant Kelvin wave through May in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific. 

Now essentially what this means is two things as we go into late May and early June..

1) Nino 4 will warm 

2) Nino 1.2 will cool but as it does so, the trades in the east Pacific should slosh that water west 

The result of the two points being that we should see the event start to even out over the next months. 

The important thing though is what happens during late May and June. 

1) The standing wave stays where the deepest sub-surface heat is in the western Pacific or Indian Ocean - this scenario suggests that the Nino would be a flop and either fail completely or be weak at best - 2019 repeat 

2) The wave progresses east and sets up closet to the dateline - this is the standard Nino progression and would likely produce a moderate event in addition to a higher chance of conventional coupling.

[summer blizzard]

26APR2022: Nino3: 0.7, Nino3.4: 0.4 , Nino4: 0.4

ONI for April should be around +0.2.

ONI for FMA should be around -0.1. 

Wider update is that things are proceeding as discussed previously. We are seeing a WWB form in the Indian Ocean which looks like progressing east as things stand. 

This should warm zones 3 and 4 while we also get some sloshing west of the warmth in 1.2. 

Sub-surface looks healthy (behind 97, 14 and 15 currently). Provided the standing wave eventually sets up in the central Pacific rather than Indian Ocean we would then see the waters in the west cool and increase the gradiant, as yet this has yet to happen. 

[summer blizzard]

Credit goes to somebody else on Twitter and somebody else on another forum for posting it but the UKMO and Euro both suggest things which may lean towards the weaker statistical guidance in the long run rather than these strong fantasies from overly sensitive dynamic models. 

 

So the first image shows that the Euro expects the standing wave to set up near the end of the month around the dateline however the dominant energy is actually over Africa. This is no bad for summer lovers and bad for me. Broadly its a classic evolution and we would see the relaxed westerlies/easterlies from time to time cool the coast of South America as the event becomes basin wide then west based. 

Probably worth saying that the Euro long range forecast already delayed the standing wave formingt 2-3 weeks from its earlier forecasts though. 

 

Second interesting image is the UKMO forecast which actually shows a pretty west based event. 

You can even see likely easterlies over the east Pacific. 

 

[summer blizzard]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

Still recorded mean easterlies in April near the dateline. 

To compare to our analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

2023: +0.5

 

1985: +0.8

1986: +0.4

2001: +0.6

2002: +0.2

2009: +0.5

2012: +0.6

2014: 0.0

2018: +0.7

 

Middle of the road then in terms of pace development. 1997 and 1983 already had mean westerlies and so were coupling to the atmosphere much better. 

 

1985: Coupled from October, did not product Nino

1986: Sustained from July, Nino from September (moderate)

2001: Did not couple sustainably, did not produce Nino. 

2002: Coupled between May-Oct, Nino from June (Moderate)

2009: Coupled from May, Nino from July (strong)

2012: Did not couple sustainably, did not produce Nino. 

2014: Coupled in July, Nino from October (weak)

2018: Coupled between Aug-Nov, Nino from Sept (weak)

 

So if we get rid of 1985, 2001 and 2012 for failing to produce an event then it looks like our post-79 set all coupled between May-August and generally, the earlier, the stronger.