Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards

[The Tall Weatherman]

The first day of the year with proper showers has finally arrived ! A few heavy hail showers were present today including a nice storm as I watched the jets take off from Lakenheath.

[Robert1981]

 The Tall Weatherman good pictures 

[Robert1981]

this afternoon there was some heavy showers with nice downdrafts around brandon/bury st edmunds around 3 to to 5pm. no lightining .

[Metwatch]

A few more from this afternoon, lovely to be seeing more of this now!

 

 

Edited February 23 by Metwatch

[Sprites]

 Andy Bown 

 

[matty40s]

Dartmoor did OK too

 

[Eagle Eye]

The photos from last nights coastal skimmers/channel showers and storms.

[JordyB]

Lancaster this afternoon

[Metwatch]

Some of the showers over London earlier. I think there were a few sferics from them.

Edited February 23 by Metwatch

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

nice little weak shower, looks pretty cool

[Metwatch]

Some convection about this afternoon but relatively shallow, with a few showers in the distance.

Best attempt with the limited zoom capabilities on the drone to capture a few dying showers at sunset just west of Spalding:

Edited February 24 by Metwatch

[ThomasD27]

Saw mostly cumulus humilis until around 1pm, then moreso cumulus mediocris. Built up to a shower to my north around 5pm (I would say cumulonimbus capillatus) which looked to have  a pretty strong updraft. Lots of virga. You can see the wind shear and fibrous top in this little timelapse

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Another good convection day. 

 

 

[Iceman2606]

Thursday morning's squall line passing through Northamptonshire.

 

 

[Rufus Butterfield]

Finally finished compiling footage from last summer. Weak little storm from August and then the night time stuff from September.

Not a bad convective year to be honest. Let’s hope for more bangers in 2024!

[Windblade]

Quick update from last week from me as couldn't post at the time. 

Last thursday was a total bust apart from some nice cells which came over and dumped a load of rain. However, when I finished work on friday the skies to my north were absolutely black and I saw the most incredible shelf cloud I've ever seen. I tried so hard to get some pictures but the thing was so massive I couldn't find a clear spot without buildings in the way to picture it. I managed to get home quickly before it arrived and started to drop rice grain sized hail. Had a couple of rumbles from it too so my first storm on 2024.  Just sorry I couldn't get any pics for the thread. 

Edited February 26 by Windblade

[Windblade]

 JordyB Textbook cb there. Beautiful shot against the setting sky.

[Thunders]

[Eagle Eye]

If you think we have it bad with Storm setup busts, look at the CINH on this sounding, any setup would be a bust . Not much buoyancy in that atmosphere either. 

[Metwatch]

On 17/02/2024 at 18:05, Eagle Eye said:

It's nearly that time of year (I mean 2-3 months is nearly right?) for the storms to come back properly. Hoping for a good year of course. 

 

Love this! Thought I'd do similar. Hoping for an active season similar to last year, a little over few weeks left to go now! 

 

Edited February 28 by Metwatch

[Metwatch]

 

Some activity in the south west as the low rapidly deepens within a cold pool, with a lot of vertical ascent. 64mph gust at Cardinham.

 

Edited March 1 by Metwatch

[Eagle Eye]

I was supposed to have a forecast out today but unfortunately the person that makes the maps couldn't make one today. Heres my discussion.

A trough behind an occluded front should bring heavy showers to the south coast. A Theta-E lobe advecting northwards with the trough will allow for channel and south coast showers throughout the afternoon and evening behind a clearing occluded front to the north and east which may also bring the risk of the odd sporadic lightning strike earlier in the day to a lot of the country but the risk is quite low.

 

This moisture convergence should form widespread clusters of showers, some reaching 7km tall or around 23,000 feet potentially. Given relatively high shearing and 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in areas, lightning is likely but mostly should be sporadic because of the messy nature of the showers and given similar events, very little could come out of the lightning but if they linger into the evening and scatter, I've seen lightning increase then.

 

Small chance of a Supercell and potentially a tornado mainly in the SE given the shearing but apart from that, there's really little support for either except low LCL's. Small hail may form but I wouldn't say is likely just given that the MLCAPE is mostly quite weak and mixed in at the warmer lower levels rather than where the temperature is below freezing.

 

High saturation for a lot of the south also limits lightning but having looked at many soundings, the saturation varies a lot from place to place and some areas have very weak saturation with favourable lightning conditions just miles away from high saturation and unfavourable lightning conditions. It's a very messy setup which makes it a bit more difficult to forecast for specifics.

[sunnijim]

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.

 

Somthing of a "Nowcast" warning from Met Office issued at 0229am this morning as 64mph gusts landed on the Isles of Scilly.

We have had gusts here in the last hour that compare with any of the named  storms  this Winter.

55mph, 58mph and 57mph.

[ANYWEATHER]

Convection starting to show now we are into March , some nice cloudscapes…….

[Wade]

The fact that there was a sferic reported on the radar near oxford from not a particularly heavy shower bodes well for any heavier more intense showers/downpours that may develop later.