Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[damianslaw]

This winter feels the opposite to winter 20-21 so far, both delivering a weak polar vortex but different outcomes. In 20-21 weak ridges to our north were enough to keep us under relatively cold air for lengthy periods with the jet forced to go underneath, not far off a severe winter cold wise, but the blocking didn't quite position itself to deliver notable cold.

This winter so far, the northern blocking has been too far away to influence the UK and when we've been primed for cold outbreaks they've become thwarted by ridging to our SW instead..

20-21 delivered a cold April- May thanks to the SSW.. will 23-24 deliver cold earlier in spring this time.

Its been an exceptionally frustrating winter so far for cold and snow lovers, more so than most given the atmosphere appears to be primed for cold but events have scuppered it.. other winters with little hope can be excused but not this one. Just about enough time to salvage it, a cold second half to Feb will do.. but time fast running out. 

Edited February 9 by damianslaw

[Arctic Hare]

49 minutes ago, reef said:

Indeed, we had 70 hours here in January compared to the 1991-2020 average of 61 hours. However the issue was that 37 hours of that came in the 5 day period mid-month.

Absolutely, it's one of those times where the overall monthly figure can be a tad misleading. It certainly didn't feel like a sunny January overall, at least where I am.

 

 

[raz.org.rain]

 damianslaw it would appear that even a SSW-induced cold spell risks being swiftly blasted away by a return of mild SW'lies. While that may be good news for those looking for a milder spring, it demonstrates a rather disheartening persistence for Atlantic fed rain to become the default. 

[cheese]

 reef Hmm, fair point. 

February 1990 didn't have an air frost in Leeds. The lowest temperature that month was 0.2C. We haven't had a frostless winter month since then - even February 1998 had 2 air frosts. However the lowest temperature this month here is only 0.1C, so maybe this February will achieve that. It would certainly be very weird to get snow in a month that never fell below freezing. 

The Met Office forecast for here is dry throughout so I'm not sure if this month will end up wetter than average. 

Edited February 9 by cheese

[Freeze]

2 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

Kevin Bradshaw he was practically the only other person in Manchester making timelapses, then he moved to Lancashire. Didn't he used to be on here but got booted off? 

Isn't that weather history?

[raz.org.rain]

Spotted this on Twitter, does it have any support?

[Dark Horse]

 Freeze yes weather history is Kevin.

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain Post it on the Mad thread....

[Nick L]

 reef  "But at least it's mild" 

Haven't had one opportunity to get the chimenea out and have a fire this winter. It's either been too wet or too windy. And it's barely been cold enough to even properly enjoy it.

Edited February 9 by Nick L

[raz.org.rain]

 Nick L for the most part, even the mild fans are disappointed. I can't imagine anyone would enjoy constant rain and wind, totally unusable weather.

[North-Easterly Blast]

 cheese In actual fact last month, January 2024 (in the early to middle part), for a time looked promising for a colder than average month, but it all fell apart around the 20th and the rest of the month was very mild, and it has more or less been so since January 20th until now and ongoing.

 

[Summer18]

It hasn’t even felt particularly mild, certainly not like 2019 for example. Just endless days of a cold wind and rain. If it’s going to be mild at least make it pleasant. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think you mean Thunderbolt_, trolled the forum

[Dare i watch the GFS 06Z]

Great overnight GFS run, this is what one has been waiting for all winter, a stable period with not overly cold conditions just perfect between -2 to -6

[baddie]

Looking like February could end up duller than average too, unless the second half changes that

[reef]

 baddie I'd say its looking pretty likely. 10 days in and nowhere outside of Eastern Scotland has seen more than 20 hours so far.

[baddie]

 reef This year so far is turning out like 2017

A long chilly and settled spell in January where there is only a small sprinkling of snow, and then changeable weather at the end
A mild, dry and dull February

[LetItSnow!]

It’s seemed ridiculously mild down here this February so far. I don’t rely on app forecasts too much but we’ve only had about one day of average temperatures and most of the time it’s been in the low/mid teens. Blossom is flowering in the park rapidly and the bush outside my front door is starting to leaf… in early February! I’ve said this before but the extremely late winter and potentially early spring setting up I think means that apart from a cold spell in mid-January, there hasn’t been much of a real winter to speak of. Wildlife getting confused. 

[WYorksWeather]

 LetItSnow! Effectively what we've had for the CET region compared to 1961-1990 is a very mild December, a slightly milder than average January, and most likely a February that will finish either fairly mild, very mild or exceptionally / record-breakingly mild.

Compared to 1991-2020 it's still a mild December, January was pretty much bang average, and February could still finish average. The rest of February will determine if from a modern point of view this is a particularly mild winter. If we have a major cold spell then it'll be near average or slightly milder than average, if we continue as we are it will be notably mild for CET (probably top 10 all time), and if we alternatively end with a major warm spell, it could possibly reach the top 3.

Somewhat less notable further north at my location - a lot of the milder days have seen Yorkshire under the cloud and on the mild/cold boundary, so I think we'll end up only a little milder than average (1991-2020).

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather some are even going for a record breaking spring. Needless to say, after last year's performance, I'm not holding my breath on that one.

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain The key determinant is going to be whether we see the Azores high continue to dominate. If we get some early heat into southern Europe, then just as how in winter we look for cold to our north and east, if it's spring warmth you're looking for then you want to see a warm Italy, southern France, Spain, Portugal etc. Of course it's not a guarantee - this winter we've had a lot of cold available (until very recently), and last summer we had a lot of heat to tap into over the continent but we remained on the periphery except in June and early September.

I will be on the hunt for potential 15C isotherms throughout the early spring. I'm giving winter another 10 days to see the effect of the SSW in the modelling, which would then take us to the first few days of March. If there's nothing going on by then, I'll look for spring warmth instead. Even so, I'd still prefer exceptionally mild to average at this time of year, even now, as average won't produce anything wintry these days.

[SunnyG]

No, it will not.

[raz.org.rain]

 SunnyG as I've said elsewhere it's a little odd that few people are considering the possibility of an early warm spell. Given how winter has played out, I'd expect either average or an early spring.

[Methuselah]

 raz.org.rain  It's looking like things could quite balmy as next weekend come along: 

 

[Snowyowl9]

Well this could go in the winter thread of the spring thread..

But to see a december at a crazy record temperature of 9.7c  in 2015 to see a May much colder in comparison at 9.1c in 1996 only 5 years previous december came in at at record low of -0.7c at 2010..

But so far this february is going to be rated 0/10 so far..it may make -1/10 yet..