Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain It seems odd to me too, considering the recent precedent of super-cold forecasts ending up in mild weather....

[LetItSnow!]

To further compoud my message from the other day, flowers (not just daffodils) are now rapidly blooming in the park and blossom continues to advance. Ridiculously mild almost non-stop since the 21st.

[Summer Sun]

Winters not done yet! We have eight days of NON-STOP snow on the way.

UK snow: Britain to be covered by eight days of NON-STOP snow over a foot deep

WWW.GBNEWS.COM

---

The temperature is also set to plummet to as low as -5C

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer Sun Generally Bullsh*t News 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Standard ‘winter in March’ looks like it’s on the horizon to me.

Doesn’t really suit anyone does it?!

[johncam]

I wouldn't bet on that either , the models and met have been poor all winter

Edited February 13 by johncam

[raz.org.rain]

 johncam same here, I'm not seeing the potential for any prolonged cold weather. Probably a few colder days at the end of February though.

[reef]

 Cheshire Freeze Its just typical really.

We're on a hell of a run of above average months though compared to the 1961-90 average. Even compared to the 1991-2020 average we haven't gone more than 0.5C below since December 2022.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Spring months manages it. It is the season that has managed more months more than 1C below the most recent 30 year average than any other season: 7 since 2013. Winter has seen 4, Autumn 2 and summer just one.

Edited February 13 by reef
Figures mixed up

[Summer Sun]

Parts of north-eastern USA are bracing themselves for their heaviest snowfall in two years, with up to 15 inches forecast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68280125

 

[AWD]

27 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Standard ‘winter in March’ looks like it’s on the horizon to me.

Doesn’t really suit anyone does it?!

Always the way.

The weather doesn’t operate by seasons or a calendar.  You can bet your bottom dollar that now many of us are ready for warm, sunny & convective weather to start appearing, northern blocking & wintery weather will start to rear its ugly head.  
 

Just a gut instinct I’ve had for a while now.  Just wouldn’t surprise me at all to have a colder than average March and/or April.  The usual way the weather likes to jaffa cakes around with us in this country.

[danm]

31 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Standard ‘winter in March’ looks like it’s on the horizon to me.

Doesn’t really suit anyone does it?!

Nope it doesn't! Winter in March is a turn off for many, barring something exceptional like 2018 or 2013. 

[Snowyowl9]

Lets see a few mild charts in this winter..

There were some slight thaws mid month: there was an appreciable thaw on the 9th, mas winds turned briefly to the south; and some places in the south had a thaw of 4 hours on Valentine's Day, as the temperatures struggled up to 1C, before it started snowing again.

It was slightly less cold midmonth, as winds turned slightly more northerly; however, many places still managed to stay beneath freezing from the 14-15th. 

The weather turned less cold on the 26th, with some places having the first frost-free night of the month. 

[Frigid]

Looks like after an initial rise in zonal winds, another dip is forecasted with the mean sticking around 0m/s.. quite a strong signal that. The SSW occurs on the 20th it seems, wouldn't be surprised to see wild swings in the MO this spring. Could be an interesting season ahead of us.

[SunSean]

 Frigid Another late SSW just in time to annihilate Spring. Would have been fine with it if it happened in early January or something but having one this late means I am fully braced for a soaking wet Spring devoid of any notable sunshine. If it created a couple of April 2021 style cold, dry & sunny months I will forever forgive the SSW but that's about as likely as me being able to swim the pacific ocean with anchors on my feet. Late SSW's suck.

[raz.org.rain]

 SunSean fortunately there's no strong agreement on a SSW having any prolonged impact on our weather, if it has any effect at all.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain I think the last year has been so horrific to every one - literally - hotties and coldies have all missed out - that our default now is to just expect the worst!

[SunSean]

Shows how boring the UK is climate wise, even Texas have had snow lately Amarillo with 6 inches of snow the other day! I wish I had been born in America- tonnes of sunshine even in the darkest months, snow in winter, guaranteed Summers, every landscape you can imagine, with every state each being so different!

Although wouldn't want to live too close to Yellowstone in case it ever decides to go boom! But damn, they got it good over there!

Meanwhile in the UK, grey, wet, grey, wet, grey, wet...

[Weather-history]

 reef

Is it?

Not exactly a lot of below average Marches in the last 30 or so years. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Weather-history In recent times only Marches 2013 and 2018 were below average, and before that in 2006 and 2001.  There were a few others that could now be considered in between the older averages and the more modern average.  It is a huge increase to consider that the 1961-90 average March CET is 5.7, and the 1991-2020 average March CET is 6.7.

[LetItSnow!]

These pictures sum up just how mild it has been. Blossom coming well into bloom staggeringly early and tons of daffodils are sprouting up. What’s more disturbing is that when I looked closely at some of the trees, some are actually starting to bud. I know we had that cold phase in January, but as I have said before, I think the persistently warm autumn and December have meant that 10 days of frosts or so haven’t been enough for it to go into proper winter mode  so it’s raring to go, the extreme mildness since January 21st adding to that.

Would be interesting to compare growth to this point in years like 1989, 1990 and 1998 etc. I may be wrong but I cannot recall such an early advance of wildlife. Trees budding in February feels spooky. 

Edited February 14 by LetItSnow!

[TheOgre]

 SunSean They literally have it all, whatever your preference and barely anywhere as cloudy as here!

Sun trying to peak out here but mostly cloudy. If it were a sunnier day it would feel springlike being how mild it is out there.

 

 

[baddie]

 SunSean If they wont give us an April 2021, I would take a March 2010 repeat, but with a more settled second half (We are due a fully anticyclonic month). I fear it could lead to a March 2006 or 2023 (March 2006 had no sunshine for the middle two weeks and the last week was a washout)

Edited February 14 by baddie

[kold weather]

This has to be one of the wettest 12 month periods ever recorded (Mar 23-Feb 24). 2023 alone was ranked in 7th place for ewp rainfall and in the EWP we are about to replace an exceptionally dry month in Feb 23 with perhaps an exceptionally wet one.

Does go to show how the shift away from la nina into el nino has turbocharged things in terms of the jet.

Edited February 14 by kold weather

[SollyOlly]

 LetItSnow! I'm totally with you on this. It makes my eyes roll when people say "isn't it lovely, early Spring" without realising that everything is connected, and everything has a consequence...the knock-on implications might not be so "lovely" after all...

[Summer Sun]

England has had its warmest 13/14th February night on record with 11.5c in the Isles of Scilly, beating the old record of 11.1c in Teignmouth in 1914