Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[damianslaw]

 trickydicky Ah may well be the case, but climate is a complex phenenemon and I'm a believer just when it sets into a groove it throws out wild surprises.. the events of late Feb 18, whilst SSW induced, was very extreme and against the grain. 

I remember thinking after winter 07-08 we were destined for no overall cold winters, the last notable cold one being some 11 years ago.. alas things changed. We are 11 years on from 12-13, who knows next year might be the surprise one.. always expect the unexpected.

Edited February 19 by damianslaw

[Dark Horse]

 trickydicky that's the thing, I hear people in Spain and Portugal who say they used to have regular reliable rain in the winter, heavy actually before the normal Mediterranean dry spell from May to October. But the Iberian peninsula is slowly turning into a desert. A combination of prolonged drought throughout the year and intensive farming.

Edited February 19 by Dark Horse

[Rain Lady]

111mm so far this month.  Got hot this morning when working outside in the sunshine.  Had to take off a layer .

[damianslaw]

The temperature last few days have hovered between 8 and 12 degrees... talk about temperate and static. Looking forward to Thursday and more variety.

Edited February 19 by damianslaw

[trickydicky]

 damianslaw You are right of course, anything can and perhaps will happen. But if I had to bet my own money on it I know which way I would be going.

[Weather-history]

An interesting article from the Guardian of 9th March 1909.

Something I mentioned in the "worringly dry" thread how dry the late Victorian and Edwardian period had become

 

[A Face like Thunder]

A dry and mild but cloudy start to the day, with some rain expected later.

[Joe Snow]

Winter 2023/24 stats so far for Sandbach, SE Cheshire, 65m asl 

Lowest overnight temp 
Dec: -5c (2/12/23) 

Jan: -8c (18/1/24) 

Highest daytime temp: 

15.5c (14/2/24) 

Lowest Daytime Temp: 

2c (18/1/24) 

Ice Days: 0 

Highest snow depth 

Dec: 5cm overnight 2-3rd Dec 

Jan: 2.5cm 16th Jan 

Feb: 0cm 

Falling snow days: 4 

Frost Days: 10 

Highest Wind Gust: 60mph 

I haven’t been able to measure rainfall but safe to say it’s been very wet even for a NW England Winter, following on from a wet autumn and mid- late summer. Cheshire normally sees some shelter from the Welsh Hills but not so much this winter, persistently wet & at times stormy with brief but fairly potent cold snaps. 

February is looking notably mild even if we do dip slightly below average to end the month. So much for a back loaded Winter This Winter more than most has trolled us all I think so many background signals & favourable set ups that have been watered down or just not materialised at all. It’ll be interesting to see if Iberian heights see us under a hot plume again this summer a scorching 37c back in 2022 will take some beating or will it?  

 

 

 

 

Edited February 20 by Joe Snow

[A Face like Thunder]

 Joe Snow I think it was just the other day, Sat 17th perhaps, when Nantwich was the warmest place in the UK. I was away so details are sketchy.

[Joe Snow]

 A Face like Thunder Too many mild/ very mild days to mention this past few weeks sadly. It's a shame as early-mid Feb given the right conditions can be dry, crisp and frosty with brighter mornings than the gloom of Dec/Jan but still feeling like winter sadly not so under the SW'ly mild muck fest and false Spring of recent weeks. 

[tricol]

Very much like spring out there today but there's a big band of rain due very soon. Just in time to scupper any early evening outdoor plans.

[Rush2019]

Again the odd burst of sunshine and brightness is short lived.  Had all the windows wide open earlier, now need light on in the house and the radar isn’t floating my boat, will need a boat soon, nowhere is getting the chance to dry out.

[Dark Horse]

 Joe Snow that's a worrying chart. I suppose great for those who love heat but I have a bad feeling about this summer, could somewhere reach 45c in the country?? Maybe that's stretching it a bit though, 42c more likely. Wasn't so long go some on here were adamant 40c wouldn't be reached but it did at RAF Coningsby. And that day up here when it reached 37 felt like when you open an oven door as you went outside

Edited February 20 by Dark Horse

[Joe Snow]

 Dark Horse Summers are definitely becoming more extreme Manchester’s average hottest day of the year used to be 27-28c now it’s probably close to 30-31c. 2022 was extreme but we have a tendency to develop more easily these 1-2 day hot plumes even within fairly mediocre summers - late July 2019 & early July 2015 for example. A warmer than average summer looking likely for this year too. 

[Rush2019]

Purely personal preference but my ideal summer temp is low to mid 20's, pleasantly warm enough without taking all my energy.  Nights are cooler for sleeping.  I can tolerate these extreme summer temps just as long as they are brief.  I love it that we are not all the same and some of you may prefer hot temps.

[A Face like Thunder]

Cherry blossom on the trees, looks lovely but far too early in my view. Dry but cloudy all day but no sign of the forecast rain yet. 

[Rain Lady]

Puddles had begun to dry up this morning -- they've come back now.

[Scuba steve]

Another horrible day and now colder too about had enough of winter now 

[Backtrack]

Echoing thoughts above, I’ve had enough of this ‘winter’. Where’s the high pressure? Where’s the cold, crisp days and the frosty nights? Where’s the winter season as a whole gone?

I really hope this isn’t a theme for the rest of the year. We have to really hope for a dry & sunny spring/summer period. Those with SAD must really be struggling (such as myself). 
 

 

[damianslaw]

Not the best of days but not the worse either. The morning stayed dry, band of moderate rain moved through early-mid afternoon, soon clearing.

Temps firmly stuck around 9-10 degree mark.

Tomorrow morning will be very wet. and another very mild day on the cards. Looking forward to Thursday and brighter skies in the fresh polar air.. which looks like holding ground through to months end with heavy rain/ showers and clearer chilly breaks with snow on fells and return of light frosts reminding us it is still February. 

[iand61]

Even considering the low bar that this winters weather has set, this afternoon has been awful.

not the fine rain that soaks you through, just the heavy stuff that in the end will go through the most waterproof of waterproofs.

absolutely vile conditions

as for Thursdays chance of a bit of wet slushy snow, no thanks; it can correct as far north or south as possible.

I’ve had enough of crap and let downs and in full spring mode now.

[damianslaw]

 iand61 Fair enough but March has a habit of throwing winter weather at us albeit the watered down type, April even more so as northerlies and easterlies make their annual appearance.

[itsnowjoke]

Rough out now 

[Rain Lady]

 damianslaw It always snows in March here.   It is our snowiest month. 

 

[iand61]

 damianslaw fully agree with that, we had our heaviest snow of last winter in March.

Late March 2013 brought one of our best snowfalls since the early 80’s and even in the decently snowy winter of 2020-21, the heaviest fall was in April.

if it comes then fair enough but I just hope it’s “proper” snow and not the slushy rubbish that seems to be the form horse these days.