Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[keithlucky]

 ANYWEATHER  ANYWEATHER This strat warming is a bigger polar votex split than previous strat warm,you know what they say live in hope ,lol

[Snowyowl9]

 ANYWEATHER

The biggest cold and snow events usually come in march or april when the jet decides to take a break..

Too many to count since 1998..

Edited February 8 by Snowyowl9

[ANYWEATHER]

 Snowyowl9 well that’s why white Easter’s are statistically more common than a White Christmas. And as been statistical since the year dot

[snefnug]

Slushy walk with Woody the dog.  Light rain now so snowmelt is quite fast.

[The4Seasons]

 Wetterfrosch I did say if you get lucky hinting that it may not happen. I see parents of Flintshire cc school children kicking off this morning on bbc Wales news. I just had suspicions that this snow event would be disappointing for you guys up there as been the story of the winter so far for most of us. 

[The4Seasons]

 keithlucky This is something that I will be keeping a close eye on. It would be nice for us to salvage something out of a split or a stratosphere warming. I wouldn't hold promises on this though buddy. The level of disappointment this winter I think quick frank people have had enough of. If it happens then all good . 

[Wetterfrosch]

1 hour ago, The4Seasons said:

I did say if you get lucky hinting that it may not happen. I see parents of Flintshire cc school children kicking off this morning on bbc Wales news. I just had suspicions that this snow event would be disappointing for you guys up there as been the story of the winter so far for most of us. 

Yes, absolutely - what a damp squib it's been once again. With those upper temps already rising before any wet stuff even arrived I never held out much hope. Just perplexed at the MetO sending everyone up the garden path. Wondering if Flintshire Council may sue them for that or did they close schools after reading the Daily Express?

[keithlucky]

As far I can remember at least the last 50 years 2 snow events per year ,mostly snow showers,So snow down south a rare event .

[Snowyowl9]

I m trying to figure out why the midlands north gets more snow that the mountains on Wales,something not right here..

OK the colder upper air is further slanted in their favour today but other times..

[Marcus_surfer]

 andy989 I'm in Rovaniemi 

[LJ1224]

It feels a lot colder than currently forecast. Felt the change this afternoon into this evening!

There's definitely a nip in the air but looks like we'll just be getting more rain.

[andymusic]

would be nice but it is the crazy gfs 18z pub run

[Pembroke Dangler]

13 hours ago, andymusic said:

 

would be nice but it is the crazy gfs 18z pub run

 

Bank one last horah for a walloping even if the snow melts by midday I’d take it after this winter that promised so much and delivered so little  

[andymusic]

gfs 00z and 06z also now showing deep northerlys and potential "snow storms" into middle/end of next week

[andymusic]

gfs 12z again - seems to be a theme/trend here

[andymusic]

seems the U.S. is about to get hit with their snow storms - wonder if ours is just delayed

Winter storm live updates as NYC sees snow and schools close across US north-east - BBC News

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The powerful storm barrels across across the north-east US - with the biggest snowfall in two years.

over a foot of snow fell in places tuesday morning

US hit by monster snow storm reducing visibility on some roads almost down to nothing

NEWS.SKY.COM

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Local records are broken as snow storm causes an almost total whiteout from coast to coast in the United States.

 

Edited February 13 by andymusic

[CLH]

I think I saw flurries last winter. This one? Nada. 

[keithlucky]

 andymusic Yes Andy cold stormy weather on the way ,North Westerly then Northerly by the 23rd .

[andymusic]

gfs 18z going a similar way tonight with a nasty will be "named" storm running north west to south east eventually dragging continental flow into the UK

[A Gower Guy]

As much as I want a little bit of snow, I really think we're missing out on those cold, crisp, clear dark evenings, and even half a week of that would be lovely right now, we've had over 100mm of rain so far this month, and only one totally dry day (1st). 

 

[Loadsa2000]

 A Gower Guy You are lucky in Caerphilly we could be looking at a month of daily rain

This Month:146.8 mm

Season Total:309.0 mm

14 rain days in February.

 

[marclt]

Bizarrely, we’ve had some drier days down west, but the ground saturation is high. How much rain can we take!?! 

[Wetterfrosch]

2 hours ago, marclt said:

Bizarrely, we’ve had some drier days down west, but the ground saturation is high. How much rain can we take!?! 

Seems west is best, and north west possibly even more so as the southerly track of the jet stream still affects South Wales much more than us up here, just as has been the case for months now. Yes we did have rain most days but often only fairly small or moderate amounts or even just unpleasant dampness. No wonder then that all I've got so far this month is 54.3 mm which is in line with my long term average of 118 mm for the entire month. By sheer observation I have found that the middle of February is often the time that winter deluges start to give way to spring dryness which can then last into June, notwithstanding the odd wet or very wet month, such as March last year or May 2021. Today is another of those dull, dreary days with thick cloud right down close to the valley floor but mostly just cloud drifting in the air, hence only 8 mm over the last 24 hours. Have a good Valentine's Day all!!!

[andymusic]

gfs 06z pv storm still progged for end of next week bringing a pattern change with it and potential colder conditions

Edited February 14 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Strong stratospheric warming will start in a couple of days .You will see a large High Pressure form over the Artic forcing a zonal wind reversal.Big changes ahead as easterly wind sets up over the Northern hemisphere 

Edited February 14 by keithlucky