Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Cheese Rice]

It seems like there is a correction south of the initial front. Most likely putting Sheffield in the firing lane. 

[cheese]

The Met Office warnings are starting to look a bit silly now with how far south some of the models have shifted. Arpege has snow flirting with London now, with Leeds potentially staying dry all together. 

[Mark Bayley]

Yep, most still have the band reaching Leeds / southern parts of North Yorkshire, but lighter. Helps that it arrives later in the afternoon. 

[Harsh Climate]

Forget how far north the front reaches, what's most disheartening for me it's now looking almost certain that all snow will turn to rain Friday below about 300m. Hard to get excited about a snow to rain event.

[ukpaul]

 All that Arpege is doing is giving southerners false hope! Greater gnashing of teeth in the MOD thread will ensue when 'snow north of the M4' doesn't happen.

[Harsh Climate]

Latest Gfs might be good for us below 100m though, might see a couple cm proper snow Thursday with uppers -5 - -7 rather than a day of heavy snow that doesn't settle!

Bit of a downgrade for you guys 150-200m+ 12z Aprege/GFS lowers your snow totals by atleast half due to lack of intensity..

[LeeSnowFan]

how is barnsley looking?

[Empire Of Snow]

 Harsh Climate , METO still suggests otherwise and I was expecting them to change the forecast already which strangely hasn't happen. As I said earlier, if the shift is more south I don't see how this setup can provide widespread snow at low levels in Midlands. Some members here believe the shift will drag colder uppers to reach southern areas but they disregard the fact that any stalling will result to warmer air pushing through quicker. 

[Empire Of Snow]

 LeeSnowFan around 10cm if METO verifies, around 5cm if ARPEGE, ICON, GFS verify. 

[LeeSnowFan]

 Empire Of Snow thank you we do seem to do well from snow events so fingers crossed  

[LeeSnowFan]

any more southern corrections will it miss us?

[Empire Of Snow]

 LeeSnowFan , I'm just looking right now at the latest data and I think we'll miss it altogether up here. As it stands we won't even see a flurry in North Yorkshire. 

[Harsh Climate]

 Empire Of Snow

I think they will see some snow down levels in Midlands but that will come from evaporative cooling, as soon as intensity drops it will turn more sleety. Also late Thursday as milder uppers push up it will turn to rain anyway.

[Harsh Climate]

Latest bbc forecast showed temperature of 7-9c for Friday now 

[Schnee]

Given my work load on Thursday, I am keeping an eye on things. Thank you all for keeping this thread updated with local variances in the model runs.

Work car is a PHEV automatic SUV (not my choice, FWD) with just D/N/P/R, nothing else. Don't fancy it's chances in Snow.

[cheese]

 Schnee  I think there’s a good chance the front doesn’t even reach here. Arpege only has very light precipitation reaching Leeds.

Edited February 6 by cheese

[The PIT]

Interesting the low stays out to the SW on this afternoons GFS.  Looks good for Snow however still a chance of freezing rain in South Yorkshire in the evening. My pet hate.

The warmer air not really making much progress and in the end ends up mixing out with the cold air. So for us in Sunny Sheffield a brief return to rather mild conditions then back to average after the one day cold snap.

Any  corrections further south could make it Snow all the way for us so something to keep an eye on.

[Tim A]

Think there has been too much hype of southern corrections and particular focus on lesser models that don't model the effect of the Pennines. 

Yes the Midlands might get some heavier stuff initially but the front should enhance against the hills like the UKV which is known to underestimate and show things too patchy anyway.  Nmm looks good too and whatever the Met Office use in their app and forecasts. 

[Yorkshirepudding]

I’m just waiting for the “ Nope is all shifted back north “ comments in the MAD thread when it hadn’t left in the first place.

[Scott Ingham]

I’ve seen these set ups time and again and the wrf high res model is the one to watch. East of the Pennines I.e Sheffield I feel will do well. Even low levels I’d be very surprised if 2-5cms isn’t hit with ground above 200meters comfortably in the 5-10cms mark. I’ve been told by a little birds the met office are being conservative due to the propensity for the front not to be as heavy as predicted but looking at the models there’s a comfortable 4 hour window of heavy precipitation which due to evaporative cooling should easily tip the belt in low altitude snow chances. Also interestingly the wrf extends conditions well into Friday supportive of snow. Won’t take much to get a second day of winter weather. Enjoy folks!

Another model underneath the arpege which usually does well in this situations shows 40cms in the Pennines and 10-20cm in areas above 200meters! It’s all upgraded today I’ll keep a beefy eye on tomorrow mornings update 

 

Edited February 6 by Scott Ingham

[Empire Of Snow]

A bit of a rollercoaster today. Looks like we're back in the game in Leeds and North Yorkshire? 

[Scott Ingham]

Arpege 18z and another significant upgrade with settling snow much further East and the cold air yet again lasting much longer than was forecast! Side by side as proof below. It’s starting to look a decent snowfall this!

 

[cheese]

Met Office showing 9 hours of heavy snow here at 85m asl. It was showing alternating sleet, rain and snow before. Still doubtful much if any of it will settle but I guess time will tell.

 

Edited February 7 by cheese

[LeeSnowFan]

Still looking good for some in the region

[bazookabob]

 LeeSnowFan Good grief we'd all take that surely? What a day that would be if it happened! Fingers crossed 🌨