Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[blizzard81]

 The PIT Yep, it happens a lot. Many people on here are ahead of the meto forecasts as we are looking at data that has just come out. Thursday looks like a high ground affair to me. Slushy mess for most I feel. 

[Wold Topper]

Pretty much a nowcast situation imby later in the week, the finer details are difficult to pin down accurately, sit back, chill and see what unfolds, thought @Aiden2012 might be stirring by now

[Empire Of Snow]

 Wold Topper , tbh 6-7 days ago I had this week written off completely re snow chances so Thursday comes as a little surprise for me. Latest data is close to my prediction earlier today for 5-8cm here, might get just a couple cm eventually but it's better than nothing. 

[Mark Bayley]

18z is an upgrade for our area with snow more widespread - a couple cms quite widely by Thursday evening. Closer to 10cm on higher ground in the west. Melts Friday though. Let's see what the 0z says. 

[Empire Of Snow]

 Mark Bayley , beggars can't be choosers. Give me 10cm on Thursday all day and I don't really mind about Friday. A couple of years ago we had snow melting even with 0c.. 

[Wold Topper]

 Empire Of Snow i think fwiw one or two places may get a pleasant surprise later this week, which considering how mild it is out tonight is quite a staggering flip

[Mark Bayley]

@Empire Of Snow indeed - better than nothing. I'm not expecting much for my area at only 135m, but will happily take a cm or two 

[winterof79]

Great chance of heavy snow Thursday with steady SE winds inducing orographic uplift on pennines

 

[adrianh]

GFS has the region largely on the right side of the cold air as the front stalls over us on Thursday.

Could be a big dumping for those with elevation and decent accumulations lower down.

[SouthYorks]

Ironically I’m away from home staying on the edge of the North Yorks Moors in Hutton le Hole this week, and quite often have seen snow whilst staying here in the past but this year it looks as though there will be more at home in Barnsley on Thursday than here.

[Yorkshirepudding]

I wouldn’t be surprised if parts of our region get an amber warning or perhaps a red for Thursday into Friday if the current models are to verify anywhere inland with slight elevation prim spots. And at 48 hours it looks promising.

[SouthYorks]

Meto have updated the snow warning for Thursday moving southern extent further north.  Watch out for much gnashing of teeth in the Mod thread from those living in the Midlands south.

[Harsh Climate]

I think most of us should see some decent snow falling, Thursday but I'm not expecting much IMBY, west of Leeds and especially anywhere with elevation (150m+) could do very well.

Reason I say more doubtful east of leeds, it does look like slightly less could uppers feeding up this side late Thursday into Friday, with more western areas the cold perhaps been reinvigorated from slightly colder uppers digging in on the other flank.

 

All does depend on the exact track, angle and amplification of thursdays low though. Also does a second system with milder air push north on Friday we do not know?

I believe the underwhelming met office warning for low ground is because they expect everything to be shunted north as we head into Friday/ Saturday, raising the snow levels and lowering accumulations down at low levels.

Believe you me, keep an eye on the -5 850 boundary, If the precipitation is heavy enough snow will settle nicely down to 50m, perhaps lower If we are right side of this long enough. I'm a little more optimistic for snow not turning to rain for places that have snow Friday if we don't get that big push of milder air from the south Friday, I mean it will become less cool, but under heavy precipitation with more favourable 500s, -2/3 uppers may be cold enough!

Believe me with these 500s the snow level will come right down in heavy precipitation with uppers right side of 0.

The bbc /met office haven't got a clue, more data updates needed, may be a T0 nowcast what will happen!

You guys west of Leeds with decent altitude I would be very excited about this. Although small changes on future runs could have huge ramifications either way, just saying how II  see it right now.

[Mark Bayley]

Good post @Harsh Climate. GFS 6z is another small improvement in regards how much milder air encroaches by Friday (keeps snow with decent elevation into Friday afternoon). I think the GFS accumulation chart is probably a fair reflection of what we might expect. A couple of CMs to low lying areas into Thursday evening, maybe 5cm around 150 to 200m, and 10cm plus on even higher ground (as per meto warning area). 

 

 

 

[Harsh Climate]

 Mark Bayley

yeah those amounts seem reasonable, Maybe close to double (100m+) by early Friday morning if the milder air can be kept at bay a touch longer.

[Mark Bayley]

Shame given what looked like quite a promising winter has delivered so little. Though watch the blocking appear in abundance as we head towards March!

I'll plump for 3cm by Thursday evening for my part of Leeds - lets see how that turns out

[Northern Sky]

I'm in Leeds 16 (Tinshill). I've got to drive to work in Castleford on Thursday morning. I'm thinking it might be a tricky drive back?

[cheese]

Here at 85m asl I'm not expecting much, maybe a slushy centimetre. An entire day of heavy wet snow that struggles to accumulate sounds like a nightmare. 

Edited February 6 by cheese

[Matt Jones]

Was a dreadful decision yesterday to put the warning all the way toward the east coast, never looked like being anything other than sleet here at best, another drab Feb attempt at an easterly sees it finally get going at 384hrs dream on.

[Yorkshirepudding]

This has been consistent for 24 hours for my location 50cm Surely not! . 
 

Although lots can change one can only hope.

[Empire Of Snow]

If ARPEGE is correct (big if) warmer air will dominate even at early stages through Midlands so it's going to be an all cold rain event with spots of snow in higher ground. I'd wait for more METO updates later today as this is a big shift in regards of ppn coverage. 

[Harsh Climate]

 Empire Of Snow

I think it will be a fine balancing act in not having the fronts push too far north (with associated milder uppers) and the heavy/beefy pulses of precipitation pushing far enough North to reach us.

Where the snow is really coming down, this will lower the snow levels quite rapidly with the evaporative cooling. 

 Empire Of Snow

I think you will do well at your altitude and location. 

[ukpaul]

At this point I find it useful to look at the Wetterzentrale graphs, as it splits down temps/dew points and precipitation. This is UKMO but you can switch to Arpege etc. The UKMO has temps higher by about 0.3 degrees on the 6z as opposed to  the 0z, matching ECM and Arpege with GFS slightly higher and ICON a bit higher than that (the latter being the only one to push temps in the chosen area (Halifax in this case), but not dew points, above freezing).

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=ukmhd&var=92&geoid=49708&lid=OP&bw=1

 

Edited February 6 by ukpaul

[joggs]

Just gutted most of Europe is mild. Colder air over Europe and ourselves would've been good. A cm or two at most I'm expecting.

I'm concentrating on beyond this tbh.

Rain on Friday then see what the models predict later next week.

Time's ticking.......

[Mark Bayley]

Yes, lets see what the 12zs say. Sweet spot looks to be the western side of Sheffield. 

I know we should ignore Meto automated forecasts, though its interesting they had sleet from 9pm on Thursday for NE Leeds (Roundhay) yesterday evening, that's now pushed to 6am Friday.