Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[MattStoke]

 sheikhy Good for central and north Midlands. Some large totals shown but likely to be brief as milder air pushes up from the south Thursday night.

Here are all the models that run out far enough.

[sheikhy]

 MattStoke even a 50 mile shift further south in the next few runs shall help significantly!hopefully we start seeing that on the 06z and 12zs of arpege ecm ukmo and gfs!!keep me up to date buddy!!!!

[MKN]

 sheikhy 50 mile shift south from what the GFS shows on the 00z would probably make this the event of this winter season for all of us and would likely result in colder air hanging on longer in the days after.  At this range that relatively small shift is not beyond the realms of possibility.

[andy_leics22]

Still looks okay for some heavy snow briefly on the leading edge but the UKMO has definitely backtracked a bit this morning with how quickly the 0c 850 line moves Northwards. I think elevation will also be key in this. The North Midlands will fare better as well and have snow for longer. I think the reason i'm not that excited by this is that it's going to turn to heavy rain later on Thursday into Friday and wash away any snow we may have. I just can't get excited over sleet/snow to rain events, but I guess I can't be picky after such a rubbish Winter and have to take it at this stage

[MattStoke]

 andy_leics22 On the flip side, it seems to be rare that we get snowfall during the day time. Will make a nice change to see it.

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke That's true! Got the 12 week scan for my girlfriend on Thursday to see how baby is doing, so I hope the roads will be clear but I do want to see some heavy snow. I think you'll do well in Stoke, you'll have snow for longer before it turns to rain, just disappointing how it does look like it's going to be washed away by Friday morning.

[MattStoke]

 andy_leics22 Ironically, the GFS now has snow cover hanging on here through the weekend whereas other models show it melting away.

Maybe snowy scenes will give ideas for baby names 

[MattStoke]

Snow warning cancelled 

Assume they're writing up a new one. Tension builds!

Edit: OK, no. They've actually just removed the warning for me. Bizarre given the model output. Disagree with that entirely.

Edited February 6 by MattStoke

[MKN]

 MattStoke considerable shift northwards in that warning area. Surprised they didn't wait until later today to make that change. The majority of there model forecasts must suggest very little outside of that area. Even within it they talk about 2-5cms away from higher ground.

[MattStoke]

 MKN Every publicly available model shows significant snow here. I'm completely confident that they're wrong. 

[Eskimo]

Isn't it entirely possible that many of us will see falling snow but very little of it will settle? Hence the warning moving north into air where settling is more likely?

[sheikhy]

Latest icon upgrade in regards to that low!more squashed!!!

 MattStoke wow i did not see that coming!!they have taken it waaaay north wtf!!!!

[AltonMatthew]

Agree Matt! The forecast does not match the warning area reduction  this is typical of our little island, chopping and changing we never can rely on a forecast...  

 

Forecast heavy snow all day Thursday here. Reality, heavy rain lol

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke

 

That's bizarre! The latest runs show heavy snow on the leading edge. I don't know what they have access to that we don't.

[Fozfoster]

 andy_leics22 met office update for here is now just rain.  No surprise really 

[MattStoke]

Seem to get more snow here when there isn't a warning, anyway 

ICON again shows that there really should be a warning here.

 

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke The snow totals do look lower here on that update I think the warning will come back for Stoke but maybe not Leicester and surrounding areas.

[Eskimo]

 MattStoke looks like settling snow for just the Welsh mountains and peak district on the second chart. If so, MetOffice warning area is correct. 

[MattStoke]

 Eskimo Not unless the Peak District has been stretched out southwards. It shows 4cm of snow over me and it's normally one of the few models to be conservative with snow.

[MattStoke]

Nothing to see here 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Met office for me, light snow 9am, heavy snow midday and sleet 3pm, think might be a bit at 6am then milder by 9am

[WelfordRd]

Met Office just updated the warnings and a big downgrade for Central Midlands. Bust again for us in Hinckey. Bring on the Spring ASAP please  

[CoventryWeather]

I'm confused as to why the met have removed the warning for us. There's been a shift south on the 6z runs.. could they have left it until tonight's runs to see if a shift south again is plausible? 

Little accumulating here but Stoke on some charts seeing 5cms +. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think a covering is possible here, but temporary, everywhere upto 9 degrees Friday

[sheikhy]

Arpege further south at 48 hours!