Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The Ogre, that would be storm Christoph, same here 

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke The strange thing is, despite the downgrades from the UKMO, my Metcheck forecast for Thursday is a big upgrade. I wonder what model is used for that forecast? Maybe the ARPEGE? 0c for most of the day, surely not Only yesterday morning it was showing 9c by 10pm on Thursday. Massive difference now.

[MattStoke]

 andy_leics22 GFS, I think. TWO shows the same and I know that is raw GFS data.

[MattStoke]

Carinthian's comment on the snow risk worth a share.

[stripeyfox]

still quietly hopeful that we might see something. My kids follow my interest in the weather and have declared Thursday a "snow day" already. Hopefully it will come through for them - usually only takes a few flakes for the school to close anyway!
 

[nobble]

Snow symbols fighting back 

[Fozfoster]

 nobble lol we have one flake. Better get up early to spot it………

[chris pawsey]

Pure cold rain for me! hoping for a change in the next runs

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours heavy snow for me, then light snow then sleet/rain, but with temp of 3, too high for snow still this time of year, March April then maybe so

[Metwatch]

Some of the higher areas of Leicestershire look a bit better compared to lower down surrounding areas. Here it's still showing sleet and not cold enough. Still time for changes.

Just to add, Cannock chase even better, first 0C i've spotted.

Edited February 6 by Metwatch

[andy_leics22]

 Metwatch It could be that borderline Coalvile always tends to fare a bit better as they're 150-200m ASL. Where I am in Ratby, we are around 110m ASL, so we have a bit of height but not much. I wish we were 200-300m ASL here, because we would be in with a much better chance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, elevation key as always, Stoke tends to do better around 190m asl, 100m or so is often too low for dumpings this far inland

Edited February 6 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MattStoke]

 I remember Atlantic 252 146m where I live and 109m where I work. Not normally a problem.

I'm wondering if the removal of the warnings may be partly down to a warm sector shown to develop just west of the Peak District. However, I see that modelled on every snow event and it's not normally an issue in Stoke.

[TonyH]

 Shezale coventry

Quote

midlands used to be a good spot for snow over the years 1981 82 85 86 87 91 96

 

You missed the biggie out Dec 1990 !

Edited February 6 by TonyH

[GokouD]

It's a right rollercoaster on the met office app, was looking rubbish this morning, then later gave me 2 hours of heavy snow, but quickly switched to heavy rain. Now it's going for sleet all day, which would be better then rain, especially if it's just the right side of marginal to be more snowy than sleety.

[MattStoke]

Not surprising to see the ICON increasing the snow risk. Often a step behind the other models.

[MattStoke]

Big shift from the 6z to the 12z. Stays mostly as snow.

[MKN]

 MattStoke icon and arpege 12z show a southwards shift. Hopefully gfs/ukmo and ECM follow suit. 

[Don]

 GokouD Yep, same here, heavy snow to sleet. back to heavy snow and so forth!  A trip to the Shropshire Hills Thursday?!

[Snowshine]

 chris pawsey If anywhere in the Midlands is going to get snow, its definitely not Warwickshire I guarantee you that!

[Midlander]

 MattStoke Every miles further south helps! 

Can see the reason for the snow increase with the 850s

1AM

 

1PM

[chris pawsey]

Given the latest southern shift of the Arpege and Arome do you think the MO will re-issue their warning later this evening?

[stripeyfox]

waxing my sledge down as we speak... but also got the sun cream just in case!
 

[MattStoke]

 MKN Arpege with snow right down to just to the north and west of London. I think those warnings might need adjusted south again!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Optimistic Matt! That's Saturday, full agreement on mild air by then