Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[markw2680]

I’ll happily take a dumping of snow for one day and then it can thaw away and get ready for some spring warmth 

[Metwatch]

Snow is snow, and even if it lasts for 6 - 12 hours max i'll still enjoy it. Preferably if it falls at 3am such as back in early December when everyone alsleep, so it's very clean and untouched, but in the morning is also nice!

[Don]

 MKN Unfortunately the Metoffice has been steadily downgrading the snow event for my location and now shows sleet from 6am to 12pm and rain thereafter on Thursday! 

 markw2680 I'm still waiting for winter proper!  Plenty of time for spring!!

[Tim Goffer]

It's going to be so marginal on Thursday. I've not actually seen any falling snow this winter, just had a dusting overnight in December. Please let's get something out of this!

Edited February 6 by Tim Goffer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

can compare it to this day, same timing, did get full whiteout until around midday when the thaw arrived, this was also when winter finished for 2010/11

[MattStoke]

ICON 18z slightly further south again.

[weirpig]

Decent icon all snow how much settles is another question

[Eskimo]

Can't see much settling on roads and paths. Temperatures above freezing between now and thursday for most after a very mild period of weather. Ground temps are so warm I'm seeing daffs appearing.

[markw2680]

 Eskimo it don’t matter how wet the roads are if it snows heavy enough it will settle, seen it soooo many times

[andy_leics22]

GFS nudges it a bit further North again, don't do this!!! Not now 12z output and 18z output...

[Midlander]

 andy_leics22 Yeah,   GFS ends the day with 18Z being the furthest north of all of today's GFS runs, whilst the ICON 18Z is the furthest south it has been all day.

Edited February 6 by Midlander

[MattStoke]

GFS shows how frustrating this could be as the cold air stalls just a few miles to the north and east of me all through Thursday night into Friday. Never seems to stall just 10 miles further south.

[Eskimo]

 markw2680 

That's not strictly true though, air temperatures still need to be conducive to allow that to happen. I've seen plenty of snowfalls where the opposite occurs because the conditions aren't right. One of them being last March. 

The reason snow settles on wet roads is because the atmosphere becomes favourable eventually, like due to evaporative cooling or a change in the direction of air as examples. 

The Met Office clearly see this being snow to sleet/rain with little accumulation for most places below 200m (where conditions above that in the air are conducive of significant settling snow). 

Edited February 6 by Eskimo

[markw2680]

 Eskimo yeah I suppose that’s correct as Iv also seen snow on the ground and yet snow falling from the sky is melting it lol, everything needs to come together correctly and this winter seems far from it for this part of the world unfortunately 

[CoventryWeather]

 MattStoke GFS a bit behind I think, seems more shifts south through tomorrow likely. 

I wonder if you could stay under snow all day and perhaps start of Friday? Don't think it's far from that stage - happy to be corrected. 

[sheikhy]

Arpege has to remain south for our hopes to remain cos that 18z gfs was an absolute stinker!!!!if arpege goes north wer done and dusted!!

[MKN]

 sheikhy when's that out?

[CoventryWeather]

METO app updated and now shows snow again on Thursday. 2 degrees max. Rain back by early Friday. 

Suggesting a shift south on latest UKV. 

[Sparkiee storm]

Not related to the upcoming possible snow event but came across some flooded roads earlier near Bescot from the torrential rain we had from the convective line that came through and the heavy rain that lasted a good few hours after that, didn't expect it to be quite this wet today. But temperatures starting to fall tonight, feeling a little chillier now.

[Don]

 CoventryWeather 2C max for me Thursday with sleet, followed by snow, back to sleet and then light rain.  Rain Friday and temps of 9C.

[andy_leics22]

That 9c on Friday is going to be horrible. Depressing watching the snow vanish as quickly as that. That's if it does snow and actually settle first!

[MattStoke]

Downward trend in temperature for Thursday, continues. No need for a warning, though

[MattStoke]

 MKN

[MattStoke]

UKMO 0z. Similar to other models. Significant snow across Stoke but nothing just to the north west of Stoke.

Warning. Doesn’t cover Stoke but does cover places just to the north west of Stoke.

Total nonsense.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

that warning area seems to go with GFS