Moans, ramps and banter

[cheese]

 Wingman Blue higher elevations are wetter and duller though. It’s not worth the extra bit of snow. 

[raz.org.rain]

 Robbie Coldrain apparently we can discount the models when they're not showing us what we want, so who knows.

[Metwatch]

10 minutes ago, cheese said:

higher elevations are wetter and duller though. It’s not worth the extra bit of snow. 

Cotswolds or the Clent hills has some decent elevation, both over 300m, while not being that much wetter or duller than lower areas across central / southern England. Chilterns is another area though slightly lower.

[raz.org.rain]

Seems like it's all falling apart, but some areas can still expect some snow? Looks like you were right about things being thrown in the model thread @Methuselah  

[SunnyG]

Looks like it's gonna stay mild after all... 

[East Lancs Rain]

 raz.org.rain I think this image sums up how many in the MOD thread are feeling right now… 

[danm]

I'll say this again - there is simply too much that needs to fall into place for the UK to get a decent cold spell, perhaps away from northern Scotland, to have any confidence in what is being shown beyond about 4 days away. 

Broadscale teleconnections/drivers are very important in giving us a direction of travel and to put us in with a chance, but multiple other factors then need to fall into place to deliver for our small island. 

 

Also, the absolute last thing I want is a **** winter from a snow perspective to lead to a cold Spring. Please god please, once we get to March give us Spring warmth. I can't deal with another Spring like last year which was ****** up by the late season SSW. 

[Bristawl Si]

A cold rain fest -

no surprise there, as the Mad ones cling on to "it usually shifts south" type b.o.l.l.o.x

[danm]

 Bristawl Si nothing excites me less than a snow to rain event. Imagine a lovely few inches falling only for it to thaw/melt by the end of the day. It may as well not bother snowing. 

[Brassmonkeylily]

Oh dear … all gone pear shaped big time … the  computer generated models have no real grasps on when the weather patterns change dramatically especially for cold incursions .. but they usual get mild Synoptics  right !!

I have decided and it has taken me a long time to twig that these long term forecasting tools are crap !  

 

[Wingman Blue]

 Brassmonkeylily Took me five years!

[raz.org.rain]

 danm seems like some out there would be happy to see a repeat of last spring as compensation for winter. Personally I can't think of anything worse, it just gives us the same weather we've got now that the coldies hate, except by late April it's too cold.

[Wingman Blue]

 Metwatch For interest sakes, where are the Cotswolds and Clent over 300m?

[Bristawl Si]

 raz.org.rain Damn well hope not. Give me a beautifully mild, and increasingly sunny March and April.

[Wingman Blue]

 cheese it’s finding that sweet spot, away from valley mists but not high enough for low cloud…. Maybe around the 150m mark?!

[Metwatch]

 Wingman Blue

Have a play around!

Birmingham topographic map, elevation, terrain

EN-GB.TOPOGRAPHIC-MAP.COM

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Visualization and sharing of free topographic maps. Birmingham, West Midlands Combined Authority, England, United Kingdom.

[raz.org.rain]

 Bristawl Si fl charts are hinting at an early spring, supposedly. I doubt it'll verify but it's a promising sign.

[SunnyG]

I have taken a screenshot of the current long-range forecast by the Meto because I bet they are gonna eat their words soon.

[RJBingham]

as they say on the mad thread BANK

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Wingman Blue probably took me 15

[Chasbrown]

 SunnyG to be completely fair the long range met office text has been so wrong this winter that you couldn't make it up. Unlike them! As the met office are publicly funded can I claim a refund please?!

[raz.org.rain]

They're banking on a SSW to ruin spring now For the 50% chance that it might deliver a cold March, which I doubt will happen. I'll stick my neck out on the line and say that the SSW will go in the wrong direction and deliver a warm March instead.

[Wingman Blue]

 *Stormforce~beka*

[raz.org.rain]

Pretty dire viewing tonight. I'll admit, I was predicting that it'd be a notably mild winter but was logically expecting the long range forecasts to come true and deliver some intense cold. Now we're nearing the end of winter and there's really not much to get excited about unless you like cold rain, definitely a 180 on what was expected back in autumn.

[WYorksWeather]

I remain highly unconvinced by any suggestion of cold into late February and March. It doesn't matter if charts show negative anomalies, you need those to be quite strong by that point. We had what looked like a very robust blocking signal for February - it now looks like that won't emerge until at least the second half, so it won't be an extremely blocked month overall.

We're still in mid-winter as far as temperature goes (even though we're well into the second half) - early February is most analogous to early August in summer, which can often record the hottest day of the year. But as you go further on, the chance decreases rapidly week by week.

The best way of explaining it is we put things in reverse. Suppose we'd been waiting all summer for a decent spell of warmth - other than a few days here and there we'd had nothing but rain. Would you really put a huge amount of stock in charts showing positive temperature anomalies (not notable, but just warmer than usual) into the second half of August or into early September? I know I wouldn't, not until the signal became very strong, and well within the reliable (day 5-7 or sooner). And that's for warm charts, which have a far higher chance of verifying these days than cold charts.

I'm giving it a couple more weeks, and if there's nothing doing for cold, I start hunting for warmth most likely.