Moans, ramps and banter

[SunnyG]

 Weather-history  It did occur to me, yes. But the forecast was very clearly pointing to a colder than average February.

[East Lancs Rain]

Looks like the cold spell is definitely off now, very little snow in the forecast now, probably just lots of cold rain for most places.
 

I imagine there will be a lot of disappointed people in the Mod thread…

Edited February 6 by East Lancs Rain

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 East Lancs Rain why would people be disappointed? Absolutely beautiful run coming up. Check it out! This evening is a lovely precursor to what's to follow, a small taste if you will - rain AND wind, aka my fave combo. It means you get wet regardless of outfit and umbrellas are rendered useless. It's just such a fun time (obvious sarcasm is obvious).

Jokes aside...can this country be mild and sunny in Winter for more than like 2 hours? Please? No? Ok. Cool. Just checking.

Edited February 6 by In Absence of True Seasons

[raz.org.rain]

...

 

Back to reality, and it would seem that the chase is beginning to focus on March now. Although I'm glad someone has pointed out the issue with wishing for a SSW as it could easily be the worst scenario if you want cold.

[Wingman Blue]

You may get cold yet!

Friday perhaps?

[Polar Maritime]

OK let's please keep discussion friendly and on topic. No Climate change discussion..

Edited February 6 by Polar Maritime

[CryoraptorA303]

 I don't see the March surprise happening, but never say never. Winter 2017/18 was virtually uneventful until BFTE right at the end, although nowhere near to this extent.

Edited February 6 by reef
The climate change posts have been removed. Thank you.

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 just peaked into the models thread and one of the outputs for Valentine's Day demonstrates a pretty strong influence from Iberia with a chilly Eastern Europe If there is a SSW I think we know where it's going.

[Dark Horse]

 raz.org.rain snow in Athens no doubt. 

[raz.org.rain]

 Dark Horse I think that's what happened a few years ago, can't remember the exact year but it might have been 2020. We got that heatwave in March while in Greece it was heavy snow.

[jonboy]

I do find it interesting how much hype some people put on this cold spell give any snow fall is transient and for the most part Restricted  to higher elevation. 

I want snow to lower elevation for a week then it might be worth talking about 

[raz.org.rain]

Well it certainly does seem like the best chance of cold weather will be mid February after all. I'm not convinced that the end of February or March will deliver anything significant in the cold department. Ideally we should be expecting a good spring ahead with a warm start, but I'm not placing any bets on any scenario. Feels like the weather just goes against what the outputs suggests either way. 

[Dark Horse]

 

 raz.org.rain yeah for deep cold late Feb onwards it needs special synoptics. Really difficult to achieve in this day and age to start off with. It's been another poor winter round here. Soon be 2nd week of Feb and with that time is starting to run out now for anything to save this winter from being anything other than mediocre (again). Good job I'm moving to Latvia in the near future away from this mild rainy island. To a place where there's interesting weather all year round and nice people with manners. Both in short supply in this country.

[raz.org.rain]

 Dark Horse it's at times like this that you can really see the biases from certain weather accounts on Twitter. Some are still insistent that a significant cold snap is on its way despite the dismal outputs.

[cheese]

 Dark Horse winters in Latvia have warmed significantly over the past 30 years as well unfortunately. They are obviously still much colder than the UK but I certainly wouldn't go there expecting a winter wonderland from December to March. Indeed a big reason for the lack of cold in the UK today is precisely because our usual sources of cold (Scandinavia and Eastern Europe) are much less cold than they used to be.

Looking at Riga specifically, summer temperatures are on par with South East England. Average yearly rainfall is 674mm which is similar to most of eastern, central and southern England (it's about 70mm higher than my nearest weather station). Summer sunshine is on par with the south coast but winter sunshine is on par with Glasgow.

Edited February 7 by cheese

[East Lancs Rain]

 In Absence of True Seasons At least it’s mild where you are!  Warm rain is better than cold rain… ️

 

That said, just checked my weather apps tonight, couldn’t quite believe it, both the BBC Weather App and the Met Office app are now forecasting the white stuff for my location on Thursday! ️ There’s even been a yellow snow warning issued for NW England! All looks very marginal though, just a degree or two warmer and it’ll be sleet or cold rain… Even if it does happen, it looks like it’s just a one day wonder before back to rain on Friday again.

[Sun Chaser]

Seen some mention of a late Feb SSW in the model thread. Feel a little bit sick now  can't face another grey cold wet March

Edited February 7 by Sun Chaser

[Dark Horse]

 cheese well to be honest I'm not looking for a winter like Svalbard that go on well into April or May or somewhere in the middle of the Russian tundra if I did I'd be planning on going there instead, should I have the means to, as it's never super easy to emigrate as it is. Even for a coldie like me I'd like a break from it all and not trying to break any bones falling on ice every day. So winters like Latvia suit me. Good periods of cold and snow but brief breaks from it as well. My friend lives in Aluksne in the NE part of the country and they've had a decent winter so far, certainly a winter wonderland and way better than this side of Europe. Dec 2010 was warm compared to what they've had this winter. That just puts into context even our most bitter winters.

Cold cold cold.

 

Edited February 7 by Dark Horse

[raz.org.rain]

 Sun Chaser a few of us have mentioned that it's not a guarantee of cold weather for the UK. It seems this occasion could be a good example, the trends of pattern changes in the fl model outputs certainly do seem to suggest that the SSW goes into Eastern Europe while Western Europe gets an early taste of spring. Who know? We could get our earliest 20°c out of it.

[cheese]

 Dark Horse well I’d argue regular cycles of thawing and freezing are probably the worst from a slipping/falling perspective because most surfaces end up covered in ice. Climates that remain below freezing throughout winter don’t typically have that problem. 

I think the winters of central Finland and Sweden are probably the best if you want winters that aren’t extremely cold but don’t have frequent thaw-freeze cycles either. 
 

I do find this discussion interesting though because if you asked random people on the street in Latvia what they think of their climate I’m sure the response would be overwhelmingly negative precisely because the winters are dark and cold. Most people from Northern Europe would happily spend all winter in the Canary Islands instead.

Edited February 7 by cheese

[Dark Horse]

 cheese their winters are still too long for me though, not as long as Svalbard but even so, probably 60°N would be my limit. Not really a fan of extremely dark days either. It's bad enough here at 53°N. When you look at the climate of Suomussalmi in central Finland it's still cold in April. Average minimum temp of -5c and you'll still get the regular freeze thaws as the days get above zero, the build up of the winter snow slowly melts but will take ages to go so they don't escape it and it'll be treacherous for a long time. But it happens just more later compared to the Baltics, throughout March and April. Rather be elsewhere I want some warmth by then. In terms of Latvians view on their winters, most embrace it and they work with it, they go ice fishing and do other winter recreation. 

Edited February 7 by Dark Horse

[Sun Chaser]

 raz.org.rain You never know, genuinely curious how many SSWs have led to warm March/Aprils? Would I be right in saying 2007 had an SSW

[RJBingham]

one cold day with maybe some sleet, shortest epic cold spell ever 

[KTtom]

 RJBingham sounds like the last cold spell, had 1 frost and a snow shower (which actually caused chaos) in my location.

I note some who ramped up that spell have gone AWOL since  

[Alderc 2.0]

Nice - thought its was turning cold