Moans, ramps and banter

[okidoke]

how many many many times we go down the garden path do we never learn!! 

its a bit or a lot of snow for some but even If you do get it will be gone in a day or so .. nothing cold on the horizon .. once again the models have flipped to mild .. shame they never flip to cold! 

see you next winter for more of the same at best a couple of colder blimps! 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG  SunnyG Yes the temps are not cold at all, I mean moreso in terms of weather experience factor. The wind is blowing a chill through my 3 layers! 

I personally found the cold but sunny/still period in Jan more pleasant than this. 

Either way...by this point, roll on Spring. Hoping for the first 20c day by 2nd week in April 

[cheese]

Hoping that the models continue to shift the front further south, maybe we can get away with a dry day on Thursday while other places get to enjoy the slush.

[raz.org.rain]

 cheese I'm curious to see if that Spanish plume manages to develop into something.

[raz.org.rain]

The Arctic isn't looking too healthy...

 

[Fozfoster]

 okidoke yeah but I’ve learned……. Took 15 years though

[ANYWEATHER]

 raz.org.rain scaremongering

[reef]

 raz.org.rain Clearly an error there on that chart. No way is the ice less than 10cm thick next to the pole at this time of the year.

[raz.org.rain]

 reef wouldn't surprise me, the author often isn't too impartial on these matters.

[johncam]

Think you will find its a lot of nonsense 

[NewEra21]

The chase is over for this winter imo, time is ticking and every push back is edging closer to March now. Not to say we won’t get a cold spring of course!

But this winter has been a huge let down, like so many of late. One year, one year things will fall right again. But in this modern warming world, it’s one hell of a chase to get there unfortunately for the UK.

[ANYWEATHER]

 reef looks very healthy.  5 meters thick or so in places ,going on nearly 20 feet thick. ..

[reef]

 NewEra21 I think it's quite likely we challenge the mildest February on record at this rate. With the CET standing at 9.0C and it looking pretty mild for the foreseeable (apart from a small blip tomorrow), there's a chance a warm spell in the second half could clinch it. We require about 7.8C for the remaining days and the way things are at the moment we could push it surprisingly close.

[Weather-history]

 SunnyG

Did it not occur to you that the coldest winter month of the season could still be above average? There have been plenty of examples.

 

[raz.org.rain]

 NewEra21 seems there's not much confidence in a cold spring occurring, to be fair. I believe it was @CryoraptorA303 who explains why pretty nicely. Last year was pretty exceptional and unlikely to repeat two years in a row.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like most folk are going to look like this ,if they have to keep waiting for winter to arrive.....

[JoeShmoe]

So as expected pages and pages in the MAD thread on a low pressure Thursday which I’d likely to bring little more than a dusting to low ground across a relatively small area 

 ANYWEATHER 10 days away though

Edited February 6 by JoeShmoe

[CryoraptorA303]

 NewEra21 Beautifully put, bravo.

I believe without the 2007-2012 aberration those winters wouldn't have been anywhere near as notable and BFTE 2018 would've been the most notable cold event since the 90s.

[CoventryWeather]

Think after Thursdays event I'll be calling winter over. Give us an early summer for once instead of a delayed winter in April for Easter. 

Starting to already see a few runs with quite warm uppers in France and Spain towards the end of the runs so hopefully won't take much to force them this way as we start to approach March. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 JoeShmoe Yeah, maybe in Altnaharra 

[CryoraptorA303]

 CoventryWeather Agreed, an exceptionally warm year seems inbound now no matter what. What's the record for the number of months above the 1991-2020 mean? If its less than 11 then I'd say this year is a serious contender for the record.

I'd go as far to say that surpassing Coningsby in late July or early August isn't off the table with how warm we know this year is going to be globally.

Edited February 6 by CryoraptorA303

[ANYWEATHER]

Well I suppose if you wait long enough ,you might get a few flakes of snow upon you

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 reef Surely won't beat 2019? We had a couple of 17/18c days in that month in London. Think it might have recorded 20c at Heathrow but I can't quite recall.

[raz.org.rain]

 CoventryWeather those warm incursions have been very eager to push our way this winter, even against some strong opposition from cold synoptics. I'd imagine they will be similarly persistent for a good while, so it may raise concerns regarding extreme heat going into summer. 
 

Part of it will hinge on what happens in Iberia, considering they're often one of the primary sources of heat across Western Europe. If they see intense heat building up, and we continue to see southerly systems pushing into the British Isles with ease, it's fair to say that above average extremes could very well be the theme of this year.

I'm not sure what's going on this season. It really does seem like we can get dozens of outputs suggesting an imminent deep freeze that inevitably get downgraded, and then you get one or two runs hinting at mild that verify without issue. Is there a trend being set for the rest of the year, or will it all go pear shaped and end up like July 2023 come summer? So far, a safe bet would be to assume a 2003 repeat.

[Ms Rock & Blues]

Nearly fell for it and got excited...it all seemed pretty certain this time ( again) 

I may see some here and then it will be gone again in a flash! Pretty fed up, wouldn't it be great to have 15+ centimetres, hard frosts and sunshine for a week then we could welcome spring.