Moans, ramps and banter

[CryoraptorA303]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Well, let's hope the flip in rainfall trends also occurs this time

[raz.org.rain]

A return to what we've had for the entirety of winter... chilly breeze, overcast and drizzly.

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain It's actually alright here today. Very humid though.

[Freeze]

2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Very humid though.

Dewpoints around Kent are all below 6c how can it be humid?

[CryoraptorA303]

 Freeze I don't know, it just feels muggy.

[Freeze]

 CryoraptorA303 air feels dry here now the murk has cleared.

[Summer8906]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Yet this April will be perceived as nothing like as good as 2007.

The 2020s weather plague. Warm nights, mild days, and large amounts of cloud, yet gives the same CET as a setup with average nights, warm days, and sun.

Edited April 9 by Summer8906

[B87]

Today feels like April 2023. Cold and breezy, you have to stand directly in sunlight if you don't want to feel cold. Not very April like.

Temp only 12.4c at the moment. 

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, reef said:

2021 into most of 2022 was one of the driest periods on record,

I think this really depends where you are. In this part of the world, while dry it wasn't extremely so - certainly not as dry as the past 9 months have been wet.

October and December 2021 were rather wet, February, March, May and June 2022 were about average, August wasn't that dry due to some thundery rain - leaving just Nov 2021, Jan 2022, April 2022 and July 2022 as notably dry.

Sep 2022 was slightly on the wet side and the final three months were very wet.

It's been a long time here since we've had an extended dry period of the sort we got in the 90s.

 

Edited April 9 by Summer8906

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Summer8906 the subtle differences with this year to that year were we were coming into a weaker solar cycle than what we are having now.  The advantage of spring 2007 was most of the days if not all of them had a positive AO until when AAM dropped dramatically come june.   Think I read that from a post Tamara made in an archive model thread.    

[Methuselah]

This week's Deep Dive is a tad more optimistic. I think!

 

[Summer8906]

5 minutes ago, B87 said:

Today feels like April 2023. Cold and breezy, you have to stand directly in sunlight if you don't want to feel cold. Not very April like.

Temp only 12.4c at the moment. 

I'd argue it is more April like than most of the days this month so far!

The overcast morning has turned to a bright, even sunny at times afternoon, thankfully. DP has become rather low. There's been the odd light shower, and 12.4C is only slightly on the cool side.

Only the third spring-like day this month so far, following the 1st and 6th. The others have featured constant dull, damp weather with high humidity.

[Summer8906]

 *Stormforce~beka* Interesting June was mostly cloudy with you. I'm just down the road and May 13-June 9 was extremely sunny. June 10-25 was slightly more changeable but even then, most days were sunny.

I will agree that it was the only sustained decent spell of weather we've had since March 1, 2023, though.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 I did better end Sept-beg October 

[Summer8906]

 Andy Bown Indeed, it got here about 1.30pm or so, and it has been a decent afternoon. Shame it didn't clear immediately behind the cold front though.

 *Stormforce~beka* Ah ok, fair enough. Yes, almost any SW-ly period close to the coast is almost always a cloudfest here.

The only time we get decent sun in a SW-ly is if there is a slack low with little breeze, which prevents the moisture piling in and we can get sunny afternoons. The Olympics period in Summer 2012 was a bit like that.

Edited April 9 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 April like to me means that it doesn't feel cold in any shade, and most days are partly cloudy or sunny and dry, with light winds.

The weekend just gone was probably the only spell that fit, though the last couple of days of March were also similar.

[Summer8906]

 B87 Ah ok, no I expect April to often be chilly in the wind or out of the sun - but I also expect dry air, low DP, and mostly bright days.

[SunSean]

Cor, this wind man, makes it feel like 2c lol.

[B87]

 Summer8906 Yes, this month is on course to record about 100 hours of sun if we keep up what we have seen in the first week. 

You'd expect April to see closer to 200 hours rather than 100.

[Summer8906]

 B87 Indeed. I suspect the middle third will be somewhat sunnier (and very much drier) but still on the cloudy side due to the predominantly westerly wind direction (albeit slightly north of west, so somewhat sunnier).

Edited April 9 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 Last spring took until mid May to finally settle down and feel springlike. The 2nd half of May had no rainfall and majority sunny days.

I hope we do not have to wait that long this year.

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 fortunately it's a one day wonder, same with the cold spell next week... probably just one to two days of a northerly breeze before returning to milder conditions. Latter half of this week is looking much warmer too, 17°c here on Thursday... disappointing but better than low mid teens.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain On the other hand, perhaps more mild or warm weather is the last thing we need. In the spring thread people are commenting about bluebells and rapeseed already being out. Much more mild/warm weather and basically spring will be over by end of April, and we'll end up with a bland May.

What we really need is dry, bright and average temps, with occasional potent cold outbreaks; ideally one really potent northerly with wintry showers. Quite happy now to not see 17C until May, and for max temps to remain in the 10-14 range for the rest of the month, if I'm honest, with min temps in the low-to-middle single figures. This is what we need to prevent spring ending prematurely.

Plenty of time for warm temps to return from June to October!

Edited April 9 by Summer8906

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Plenty of time for warm temps to return from June to October!

Plenty of time indeed.

The most recent seasonals are suggesting patterns consistent with the hottest summers on record. The question now seems to be if it's hot and dry (1976, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022) or hot and humid (1983, perhaps 1989 and 2019). Either way I would suggest we are to expect prolonged high temperatures for much of the summer with the highest in August or maybe September.

Inb4 the Nino-Nina flip:

As I expected, the Nino comedown has been significantly downgraded. It is now highly unlikely that we will find ourselves in full-on La Nina conditions before autumn, if we do at all in the near future. This summer is now much more likely to be ENSO-neutral.

Hopefully that ends the fears of a 2007 repeat or the like, nothing is currently pointing to that.

If we don't find ourselves in a significant La Nina event this year, this will also have the knock on effect of slowing the global cooldown from the 2023-24 El Nino and 2025 can be expected to be almost as hot as 2023 and 2024 have been.

Edited April 9 by CryoraptorA303

[HurricaneSteve]

 SunSean the actual wind chill just before sunrise this morning was 0c wind gusts to 60mph

as the wind slowly died down during the day, the feel like temp eventually got up to 7c

I was out in that blustery wind this morning, with a warm top on, and the wind cut through me

Still winter, jacket weather really