General summer chat

[raz.org.rain]

 *Stormforce~beka* closer. I'm still going for a largely hot and dry summer personally, I really do believe it has the potential to be a real summer of legend. I think May is still the favourite for record breaking heat.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain I'm a June lover!

[summer blizzard]

Pacific sub-surface is now negative. I'm definitely leaning against a hot summer personally. 

[raz.org.rain]

 summer blizzard oh joy, a terrible summer to look forward to after a terrible 2023 and potential SSW delivering a terrible spring.

 

edit: although having said that, generally we'd expect that ENSO's effects are much less pronounced during the summer period in Europe. The effects effects are more evident during winter, during which we should see colder and drier conditions... fair to say, that hasn't happened.

Edited February 7 by raz.org.rain

[JoeShmoe]

Summer can’t come soon enough !

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 JoeShmoe yea from one cloud fest to another 

[East Lancs Rain]

 *Stormforce~beka* At least it will be a much warmer cloud fest though, I’d much rather have a 17-19C cloud fest than a 7-9C one. The rain is also warmer in summer as well! ️

[stainesbloke]

 *Stormforce~beka* really hope not. I’m not a fan of extreme heat but I’d love as much sunshine as possible this summer (as always)

[WYorksWeather]

 East Lancs Rain That is really what saved last July from a CET perspective. It was a horrible month synoptically of course. The reason it still ended up above average was because we had 17-19C and rain, rather than 15-17C and rain. That was literally it.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

The rain is also warmer in summer as well!

I was just about to comment that. 

4 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Summer can’t come soon enough !

Hopefully, a much better July than last year.

[TheOgre]

At this stage I think we can only say it’s most likely we’ll have a worse June and a better July than last year. 

[raz.org.rain]

 TheOgre my early call here is that we'll be seeing multiple plume events. I'd expect that continental high pressure will also be a considerable influence. All things considered, in 2024, I'd imagine heat will be a running theme here and elsewhere. Hopefully it doesn't go pear shaped again.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain mind you, for the Mediterranean, probably most will hope it does go pear-shaped heat-wise, and it's significantly "cooler" and "wetter" than last year there (relatively speaking).

What we want this summer is June 2023 synoptics all season. That month was actually relatively "cool" and "wet" in much of the Mediterranean.

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 it wouldn't surprise me if we see multiple hot weather events spaced out by rolling thunderstorms. I believe heat will continue as a factor throughout, so it could feel very tropical with the humidity at times.

Edited February 8 by raz.org.rain

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain My feeling is for a typical contemporary summer I have to admit, i.e. cloudy with mild nights and indifferent day-time temps most of the time, but with each month featuring a 2-to-3 day heat spike. So each month might achieve 32C, but also each month will probably feature 15 or so days failing to reach average max temps in southern England outside of London.

I've just become very cynical about post-2007 summers, I have to admit - pinning all my hopes for this year on spring.

 

Edited February 8 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 cheeky_monkey of course in continental Edmonton you've probably got more chance of a decent summer than here!

 Atmogenic Not a town in Australia with the same name as a French town?

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 another year with a maximum of 32° would be very unusual given how recent years have trended. I'm still going for a max high of near 38°c. I believe @CryoraptorA303 thinks we stand a chance of challenging the Conningsby record. That would be a shock to the system so soon after that record was set, but I'd say it has a much higher likelihood of occurring than it has had in previous years.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain Sorry, when I said 32 I meant "at least 32". I'd go with 35 or 36 as being the absolute max.

But I'm still very sceptical about any prolonged warmth this summer, given the nature of most summers of the past 10 years (cloudy and changeable has very much been the form horse, with 2018 and 2022 being the exceptions rather than the rule).

 

Edited February 8 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 to be fair, summers and springs of the past decade or so have been pretty decent if it's warm weather you're after. Sure, often erratic in how it occurs, but we're at a point now where we can expect a heatwave with at least some 30°c days. But in terms of sustained sunshine, I could imagine it is unimpressive. I know some will hate the summer heat if it's overcast, and it does feel like a default pattern sometimes. 

It's a pretty clear sign of the effects of climate change, so it's a bittersweet fact that our summers are now somewhat reliably warmer. The 2010 period was a brief blip that we shouldn't really expect a repeat of. 

Edited February 8 by raz.org.rain

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

to be fair, summers and springs of the past decade or so have been pretty decent if it's warm weather you're after. Sure, often erratic in how it occurs, but we're at a point now where we can expect a heatwave with at least some 30°c days. But in terms of sustained sunshine, I could imagine it is unimpressive. I know some will hate the summer heat if it's overcast, and it does feel like a default pattern sometimes. 

I'd agree about springs, but not sure about summers. Here, I'd say we have a 75% chance of a cloudy and changeable summer with many cool-by-day episodes, mild nights, and brief heat spikes, and a 25% of a notably hot and sunny summer (and little chance of anything in between!)

This is just based on the pattern of the past 15 years. We had mostly hot and sunny summers (some years had one bad month) in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022 which averages out at 1 year in 4.

I'd certainly dispute that summers 2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2015 could be considered "decent" overall. Some had one good month, but overall I'd rate them as below-par to rather poor, and worse than all summers in the 1989-2006 period except 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2002. Of these recent summers, 2021 and 2023 were especially bad, perhaps worse than any summer from 1989 to 2006 inclusive.

These recent summers have impressive-looking CET but this is only down to mild nights and short heat spikes. A lot of the days in a typical contemporary summer struggle to much exceed 20C by day and struggle even harder to achieve 50% of the max sunshine.

Edited February 8 by Summer8906

[cheeky_monkey]

 Summer8906 if you grew up prior to the 1990s then summers today are something you could only dream of back then..+30c days were a rare beast 

[East Lancs Rain]

 MP-R Yes I remember that plume at the end of May 2017. I remember having a hot and sunny day in the mid 20’s, then a slightly cooler day, then I remember having a thundery shower or two on the Saturday. Didn’t get any big thunderstorms here though.

 

Here is a time lapse of that day from the NW England region.

[East Lancs Rain]

 

[East Lancs Rain]

On 07/02/2024 at 21:15, WYorksWeather said:

That is really what saved last July from a CET perspective. It was a horrible month synoptically of course. The reason it still ended up above average was because we had 17-19C and rain, rather than 15-17C and rain. That was literally it.

A lot of the days were very cool though, I remember one day it was around 14C and raining all day. Came across a video on YouTube of walk through the streets of London in fairly heavy rain and it was filmed on an evening in July 2023. The temperature? 14°C… I would have expected London to be warmer than that on a summer evening in July, even if it was raining, considering the average max in July there is 24°C. Rainy summer evenings with temps in the low teens are fairly common up here but I would have thought not very common down in the Capital.

 

Here are some timelapses in the NW England region from that month. Most days were below average (around 20°C here). I only remember having one warm sunny day with high of 25°C on a Friday, that was it. It was the mild nights that held the average up although even the nights didn’t seem that mild tbh. Definitely one of those months where the CET gives a totally false impression of how the month actually was.

 

 

[Atmogenic]

19 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Not a town in Australia with the same name as a French town?

nope as it was showing a map on the areas of europe having the record heat, for example i still remember in the dream that London hit 24c