General summer chat

[raz.org.rain]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Go back even further and the warmest May's typically come from that little age period as well. Does make you wonder whether there are climatic shifts that occur every now and then that predispose the UK to a shift in favourable synoptics for warmth?

There probably was at one point, but I think we probably wiped it out and replaced it with a permanently favourable synoptic for warmth when our civilisation industrialised.

[CryoraptorA303]

24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Go back even further and the warmest May's typically come from that little age period as well. Does make you wonder whether there are climatic shifts that occur every now and then that predispose the UK to a shift in favourable synoptics for warmth?

 

18 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

There probably was at one point, but I think we probably wiped it out and replaced it with a permanently favourable synoptic for warmth when our civilisation industrialised.

Well, the problem with this sort of thing is the climate operates on a century-level scale, and it would take several centuries or a millennia of modern study to completely map the exact intricaces of the climate.

Having said that, as I've expressed before, I don't agree with any kind of cyclicity. I agree that there are relatively obvious periods of dry and wet, slightly warmer and slightly cooler, different seasonal patterns, and that most patterns we experience throughout the year can be classified into a handful of archetypes, but I don't think there's any actual overall repeating frequency in this. Whether certain conditions dominate for x or y period is imo random in the grand scheme of things.

I also think the supposed differences between decades like the 60s vs the 40s and 50s are greatly exaggerated and the overall background climate did not differ by anywhere near as much as is sometimes suggested by... people of certain opinions, however there are a few undeniable differences, mostly in terms of isolated events.

I have run a randomised number selector of around 200 different possible numbers ranging from 27°C to 40°C, of course including the decimal points, and after generating a few hundred rolls, there are definitely a few random clusterings of high and low numbers. The distribution is totally random so this materialised by chance.

Sometimes we will experience a few hot years within a short time span and vice versa by chance. Humans are masters of seeing patterns that don't actually exist.

The only identifiable constant is the increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by industrial activity in the last two centuries, which is now relatively hugely warming the global climate and is significantly contributing to hotter and wetter weather worldwide.

As these intricaces and peculiarities are mostly an unknown to us, it is also unknown how climate change is intefering with the general multi-century flow of the climate aside from simply increasing temperatures. We are only now just beginning to understand how climate change may interact with things like the Hadley cell and the jet stream, and the answer is badly. This is why we should have begun the green transition back in the 80s when we first identified that rising CO2 levels were causing global temperatures to increase (fossil fuel companies were among the first to actually identify the link and suggest we would see catastrophic impacts if it continued unabated, what an irony) instead of letting it build to a dangerous level and now it's moving faster than we can keep up with. We frankly have absolutely no idea what we're messing with.

[East Lancs Rain]

3 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 

Well, the problem with this sort of thing is the climate operates on a century-level scale, and it would take several centuries or a millennia of modern study to completely map the exact intricaces of the climate.

Having said that, as I've expressed before, I don't agree with any kind of cyclicity. I agree that there are relatively obvious periods of dry and wet, slightly warmer and slightly cooler, different seasonal patterns, and that most patterns we experience throughout the year can be classified into a handful of archetypes, but I don't think there's any actual overall repeating frequency in this. Whether certain conditions dominate for x or y period is imo random in the grand scheme of things.

I also think the supposed differences between decades like the 60s vs the 40s and 50s are greatly exaggerated and the overall background climate did not differ by anywhere near as much as is sometimes suggested by... people of certain opinions, however there are a few undeniable differences, mostly in terms of isolated events.

I have run a randomised number selector of around 200 different possible numbers ranging from 27°C to 40°C, of course including the decimal points, and after generating a few hundred rolls, there are definitely a few random clusterings of high and low numbers. The distribution is totally random so this materialised by chance.

Sometimes we will experience a few hot years within a short time span and vice versa by chance. Humans are masters of seeing patterns that don't actually exist.

The only identifiable constant is the increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by industrial activity in the last two centuries, which is now relatively hugely warming the global climate and is significantly contributing to hotter and wetter weather worldwide.

As these intricaces and peculiarities are mostly an unknown to us, it is also unknown how climate change is intefering with the general multi-century flow of the climate aside from simply increasing temperatures. We are only now just beginning to understand how climate change may interact with things like the Hadley cell and the jet stream, and the answer is badly. This is why we should have begun the green transition back in the 80s when we first identified that rising CO2 levels were causing global temperatures to increase (fossil fuel companies were among the first to actually identify the link and suggest we would see catastrophic impacts if it continued unabated, what an irony) instead of letting it build to a dangerous level and now it's moving faster than we can keep up with. We frankly have absolutely no idea what we're messing with.

Oh well, at least we’ll have more BBQ summers….

10 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I've captured on timelapse almost every single day's of weather for my area  since early 2014 and the standout summer for me in that period was 2018, the May to mid July period was a sunshine fest. Certainly the greatest summer since 1995.  So glad to have captured it, visually.

 

 

I remember June and July 2014 were also very sunny and warm. And April and May 2020 was also a very sunny period. 

22 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It's always interesting to think there are now people here who don't remember 07-12 and can only reference statistics (for those of us here back then, it sticks in the memory like 09-10-13 does for summer. 

But yeah, 07 and 12 were basically a dream for those of us who dislike summer and we're truly horrific for the majority on here. Akin to winter 2014.

Summer 2008 was horrifically dull and generally wet and cool. Summer 2011 while dry ish was the coolest in about 25 years and basically devoid of heat after the opening days of June.

Summer 2009 is remembered by those who only look at statistics as being okay but in actuality it was what we can call a plume fail summer. Basically in June and August it tended to be humid but outside the south east it was barely memorable as the heat would always plume to our east. 

Summer 2010 is the one people forget most and glorify but in reality June was about as average nationally as you can get and from about the 10th July, summer was basically done north of Yorkshire, August was pretty cool and wet and I recall Scotland recording some abnormally cool temperatures. It gets glorified a little because from mid June to mid July the south east did get a great 25C period but here In Yorkshire the frontal boundary basically just sat north of us so it was a cloudy, humid month and north of us completely forgettable. Essentially a summer of 2 halves but with the first half at maybe 6/10 only nationally.

So basically very poor summers generally with perhaps only summer 2009 trying (and failing) to produce something consistently warm.

I remember June 2010 being quite hot, sunny and dry. I remember a thunderstorm in July 2010 and I remember that month being much cloudier and cooler and having a lot of heavy downpours. I remember August 2010 just being cool and cloudy (as August typically is here). I remember some hot and sunny weather in June 2009 as well.

22 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The string of years 2003-2006 would have occured during your formative years, so this would've had a huge impact on what normal summers are supposed to look like. You were probably also old enough in 1997 for the really hot August to have had some level of impact. 1995 is a stretch but with how exceptional it was it's possible. I still remember going to the beach on May 27th 2005 despite being two years old and I remember bits and pieces of really hot days throughout July 2006. Were I two or three years older I'm sure some of the extreme heat from August 2003 would've made its way through as well.

Conversely the string of mild summers 2007-2012 happened right through my most formative years so these have undoubtely had a big impact on my idea of an average summer and likely explains why I wasn't fazed by 2021 or July 2023.

It makes you wonder how much of our weather preferences come about via our childhood experiences. The cold snaps and mild summers of the late 00s-early 2010s coincided with some of my best memories while the mild winters and extremely hot summers of the 2010s coincided with some of my worst memories, and this lines up with my preferences as an adult. Similarly, Springs 2011 and 2012 also coincided with some of my best memories and now as an adult spring is the only season of the year where I actually like dry, sunny and perhaps slightly above average temps. Very intriguing stuff

 

This makes sense, the lack of any real notable heat in that string makes the "inbetweeners" seem even worse. For instance, if summer 2011 had occured between two random years in the later 2010s, we probably wouldn't have been that fazed by it. It'd be below average and wet but not grossly so. 2010 would outright likely be remembered as an overall ok summer, but with a below par end. Summer 2017 for example, remove the June heatwave and it's honestly not much different from something like 2010. It very much gave up after early July. But it wasn't that bad, and it's between 2016 and 2018 so it's not remembered for being awful. If summers 2014, 2016 or 2017 took the place of 2010 or 2011 they'd likely have a much worse reputation. 2015 would have an outright disastrous reputation as the August is already (mostly rightly tbh) lambasted.

But because 2010 and 2011, and to a lesser extent 2009 although that really did have an extremely wet July, didn't offer anything truly notable and don't stand out, they are simply lumped into the 2007-2012 bracket as the "garbage years". 2011's case likely isn't helped by the upside-down omega-shaped year, with the record hot April and then the Ocotber record on both sides of an overall unimpressive summer.

To demonstrate this point, everyone who's reading this, take a guess at what 2011's maximum temperature was. You're not allowed to look it up, and don't spoil it if you already know.

I was born in 1997 so grew up with the mostly good summers of the early 2000’s and then the poor summers of 2007-2012. As a child I generally didn’t like hot weather and loved snow in winter, especially as when we got enough of it, I got a day of school, so the poor summers and cold winters during that period suited me well. During the first week of January 2010 I got a whole week of school! I remember building a snow nuclear power station in the garden (was really into the Simpsons back then).

 

I have no memories of snow at all before Easter 2008. I remember the summers when I was little generally being warm, dry and sunny and the summers between 2007 and 2012 being cool, cloudy and quite wet. From memory I don’t remember summer 2009 or 2011 being too bad though. 
 

Now my weather preferences have changed though, I prefer milder winters and warmer, drier, sunnier summers.

On 14/01/2024 at 18:04, summer blizzard said:

It was very much a southern thing was 2022 before August. 

Somebody who lives in Manchester and London on here was illustrating earlier last year how the maxima in London were indicative of a proper 2 week 25+ hotspell basically making it a summer of two halves however in Manchester (and it fits with my own memory here), we basically had 2 hot days and 3 or 4 warm days scattered in tht two weeks. 

August 2022 was more national, probably because it was UK/Scandi High based. 

Yes I remember the heat of July 2022 mostly confined to a few days, I remember it got into the mid 30’s on the really hot day with overnight temperatures still in the mid 20’s, leading to a horrible night for sleeping. However, the next day it was only around 19C and cloudy. And the next few days it was mid teens and rain.

[B87]

23 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Summer 2010 is the one people forget most and glorify but in reality June was about as average nationally as you can get and from about the 10th July, summer was basically done north of Yorkshire, August was pretty cool and wet and I recall Scotland recording some abnormally cool temperatures. It gets glorified a little because from mid June to mid July the south east did get a great 25C period but here In Yorkshire the frontal boundary basically just sat north of us so it was a cloudy, humid month and north of us completely forgettable. Essentially a summer of 2 halves but with the first half at maybe 6/10 only nationally.

So basically very poor summers generally with perhaps only summer 2009 trying (and failing) to produce something consistently warm.

Summer 2010 was probably the best of that bad bunch between 2007-2012. June was warm, dry and sunny here. July was warm, dry but dull. August was a catastrophe in every sense.

[B87]

Here are the climate boxes for the 2007-2012 years in London. 2010 had the best summer, but I'd probably pick 2011 for the best year overall due to the better spring and autumn, 2nd sunniest and driest.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Edited January 15 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Oh well, at least we’ll have more BBQ summers….

You'll also have more July 2023s and autumn 2023s. Climate change will not be kind to you in your location, it's just going to make your already high rainfall even more intense in exchange for a few extremely hot days a la far northern Iberia.

If more people were made aware that the average yearly rainfall for most of the country will significantly increase due to climate change, and we will see just as many more extremely wet months as dry, then I think people in this country would take it more seriously.

Edited January 15 by CryoraptorA303

[TwisterGirl81]

37 minutes ago, B87 said:

Here are the climate boxes for the 2007-2012 years in London. 2010 had the best summer, but I'd probably pick 2011 for the best year overall due to the better spring and autumn, 2nd sunniest and driest.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

That’s pretty dire by London’s standards, I’d be very interested to see your graphs for 2013 to 2023 

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

That’s pretty dire by London’s standards, I’d be very interested to see your graphs for 2013 to 2023 

By today's standards it's dire, by historical standards it's really not far out of the norm, to outright average in terms of temps. In terms of yearly rainfall it seems to be more concentrated in single months vs historical wet, mild years and more intense.

You'll notice that in all of these years aside from 2008, it is only two or three months that are extremely wet, and all of them have significant dry periods. 2012 in particular is especially surprising in how dry it was earlier in the year.

[B87]

13 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

That’s pretty dire by London’s standards, I’d be very interested to see your graphs for 2013 to 2023 

Here you go. 2021 must be in the top 3 dullest years on record for Heathrow, if not the dullest. 2022 was a great year. 2014 was exceptionally wet, the wettest on record at Heathrow, but also among the sunniest.

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Edited January 15 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

5 minutes ago, B87 said:

Here you go. 2021 must be in the top 3 dullest years on record for Heathrow, if not the dullest. 2022 was a great year.

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Honestly, those rainfall statistics disturb me. Surely it can't be normal for an oceanic climate to see one month with basically no measurable rainfall, and then another with >100mm in the same year? There is no way this should be happening. It seems like the wettest years in that list had at least one extremely dry month, and the driest had at least one extremely wet month. 2018 is the most striking to me, the majority of 2018 was average or wetter than average, but the horrendously dry June still made it overall considerably drier than average as a year. 2022 is up there as well, that looks like it could be the statistics of a warm-summer mediterranean climate. Similarly with 2023, every month aside from May is wetter than average, except for February which is one of the driest on record. And there are people who think there is nothing to worry about?

[B87]

6 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Honestly, those rainfall statistics disturb me. Surely it can't be normal for an oceanic climate to see one month with basically no measurable rainfall, and then another with >100mm in the same year? There is no way this should be happening. It seems like the wettest years in that list had at least one extremely dry month, and the driest had at least one extremely wet month. 2018 is the most striking to me, the majority of 2018 was average or wetter than average, but the horrendously dry June still made it overall considerably drier than average as a year. 2022 is up there as well, that looks like it could be the statistics of a warm-summer mediterranean climate. Similarly with 2023, every month aside from May is wetter than average, except for February which is one of the driest on record. And there are people who think there is nothing to worry about?

In the last 30 years, I believe 14 have been Cfb, 14 have been Csb, 1 has been Cfa and 1 Csa, if you rank them by Koppen classification.

There are plenty of summer months through the years that have recorded <30mm of rainfall, but every so often you get one like July 2007 or August 2015, which brings the overall average back to a Cfb.

Edited January 15 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

14 minutes ago, B87 said:

In the last 30 years, I believe 14 have been Cfb, 14 have been Csb, 1 has been Cfa and 1 Csa, if you rank them by Koppen classification.

There are plenty of summer months through the years that have recorded <30mm of rainfall, but every so often you get one like July 2007 or August 2015, which brings the overall average back to a Cfb.

So this would seem to suggest London is heading towards Csb and not Cfa. I would've guessed London to be moving towards Cfa tbh.

[B87]

Just now, CryoraptorA303 said:

So this would seem to suggest London is heading towards Csb and not Cfa. I would've guessed London to be moving towards Cfa tbh.

There are already slivers of Csb climate along the central south coast and the IoW. It would make more sense that London would be closer to those than Cfa.

[raz.org.rain]

16 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

So this would seem to suggest London is heading towards Csb and not Cfa. I would've guessed London to be moving towards Cfa tbh.

London is expected to be nearer to Csa by 2071 according to these Köppen projections. A good portion of the southern coastline will be Csb, and we even manage to squeeze in some Bsk too.

[TwisterGirl81]

57 minutes ago, B87 said:

Here you go. 2021 must be in the top 3 dullest years on record for Heathrow, if not the dullest. 2022 was a great year. 2014 was exceptionally wet, the wettest on record at Heathrow, but also among the sunniest.

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Thanks for this, it’s really interesting 

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Honestly, those rainfall statistics disturb me. Surely it can't be normal for an oceanic climate to see one month with basically no measurable rainfall, and then another with >100mm in the same year?

I would say it's pretty normal for almost anywhere in the world with a non dry climate to still get dry months and wet months in a single year. The average monthly rainfall in many places in the UK, is in the 50-100mm area which consists both of very dry and very wet months in the last 30 years, not all will be in that 50-100mm range. Just depends on where different pressure systems set up as a result of many background drivers and signals, which some will change from month to month.

With climate change we may be getting a more meridional jetstream allowing them to be more sluggish moving than without any warming but i'm not as clued up on that part of climate science as some others on here might be. Some years will be drier, some years wetter with current climate, which is part of the variability in our oceanic climate.

Edited January 15 by Metwatch

[CryoraptorA303]

13 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

London is expected to be nearer to Csa by 2071 according to these Köppen projections. A good portion of the southern coastline will be Csb, and we even manage to squeeze in some Bsk too.

Considering where many climates along the south coast are already at, significantly more of southern England than this will be Csx or Cfa by 2071-2100 in a realistic emissions scenario. This looks more realistic for 2041-2070.

Also, unless my eyes are deceiving me, London is Cfa in that projection, not Csa, although its summer precip could definitely be bordering on Csa in a lot of years, similar to Bordeaux in perhaps a decade from now (which is currently Cfb under 1991-2020 but will more than likely be Cfa in 2011-2030 with what they've seen in recent years).

The reason I say we could see Cfa instead of Csx is to account for intense early June and late August storms, although in that time we could definitely see July precip decline significantly to allow Csx. A significant number of Csx climates today have notable June and August monsoons, with July being the driest month. Even in very dry Csx climates, both the June and August average rainfall levels are notably higher than July, and in virtually all Csx climates, May precip is much higher than many would probably guess.

13 hours ago, Metwatch said:

I would say it's pretty normal for almost anywhere in the world with a non dry climate to still get dry months and wet months in a single year. The average monthly rainfall in many places in the UK, is in the 50-100mm area which consists both of very dry and very wet months in the last 30 years, not all will be in that 50-100mm range. Just depends on where different pressure systems set up as a result of many background drivers and signals, which some will change from month to month.

With climate change we may be getting a more meridional jetstream allowing them to be more sluggish moving than without any warming but i'm not as clued up on that part of climate science as some others on here might be. Some years will be drier, some years wetter with current climate, which is part of the variability in our oceanic climate.

Well yes, I'm not suggesting that it's impossible to see wet and dry months in the same year. The problem is the extremity of it. A 0.4mm month looks really out of place in an overall average-to-wet year. As does a single month having 142.2mm in an overall average to dry year. Even the 2.0mm May looks a bit misplaced. The point is, it doesn't look like natural distribution of wet and dry months.

Also to keep in mind is some of these were overall notably very dry periods, but had their rainfall stats boosted to average or above by a single massive storm or two, e.g. July 2018, August 2022 or June 2023. This is where my suggestion of Cfa comes from over Csx as this is much more characteristic of the former. June 2023 in particular is striking as it was a very hot and dry month, but a single storm moving through towards the end boosted it to average, and July is only 5mm wetter even though that was a significantly duller and cooler month, and August is even slightly drier despite a storm moving through early in the month and the rest of the month being nowhere near as warm as June was. It happens again with September in it being even wetter than June despite being the warmest month of the year. This would be much more typical of a humid subtropical climate and not Csx.

However, the above phenomenon could very well be temporary as rising temps momentarily cause higher cyclogenesis to hit Britain. As things get warmer and the Hadley cell expands, these cyclones could end up deflected further and further north more often and the result would be quite a rapid decline in summer precip for the south, but a marked increase for the northern half of Britain.

[lassie23]

i think it will hit 50c in London in the summer of 2049, can I live that long to see if my prediction comes true

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

i think it will hit 50c in London in the summer of 2049, can I live that long to see if my prediction comes true

I hope not. I don't think it'll hit 50°C in London by 2049, but I doubt it'd be absolutely impossible in the worst case scenario.

I would imagine the record by 2049 will be in the region of 43-44°C, and we will have seen consecutive days above 40°C at least once. Paris could reach 50°C by then if western Europe is hit with an exceptionally bad heatwave but I wouldn't bet my house on it. I would bet on around 45-46°C for Paris by then. Southern France will have likely reached the region of 48-49°C by then, and southern Spain and other hotspots like Sardinia and Sicily will have probably reached 50-52°C. Both the Belgian and Dutch records will likely be in the regions of 44-45°C.

I would say the average annual maximum by then would be in the range of 37°C (2010-2020 is ~34°C), and the immediate continent to the south of us will be seeing 38-39°C in most years with 40°C appearing every 2-3 years on average, and for us it'll appear about once or twice a decade. For comparison, right now 38°C can probably be expected to appear around this often.

[raz.org.rain]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

i think it will hit 50c in London in the summer of 2049, can I live that long to see if my prediction comes true

British Columbia has a record high of 49°c at roughly the same latitude. Very different dynamics but similar maritime influenced climate.

[CryoraptorA303]

22 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

British Columbia has a record high of 49°c at roughly the same latitude. Very different dynamics but similar maritime influenced climate.

While the quality of that record has been questioned, it is agreed that Lytton reached at least 48.6°C on that day, and further in the centre of the town it is suggested that temps could've exceeded 50°C. Further south along the PNW seaboard temps were widely above 45°C on that day with even highly coastal areas reaching 42°C.

Lytton's record before that heatwave was around 44°C, so it would seem a comparably severe heatwave in western Europe would see us reach around 45°C, Paris around 47°C, perhaps nearing 48°C, and parts of southern France potentially exceeding 50°C. Western France could also widely see >45°C. Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands would also all likely see at least 45°C. Considering that heatwave also saw two record-breaking days before it, we would also very likely see consecutive days above 40°C and by the hottest day, the daily minima will be absolutely unimaginable, likely exceeding 30°C even inland and some coastal areas along the south and London probably seeing >32°C daily min by the end, with French cities like Paris and Nantes seeing similar or worse. The south coast of France might see high-30s, and the north and west coasts possibly <35°C. If Spain was also involved then they'd see even more unimaginable temperatures, with hotspots like Cordoba and Seville almost certainly exceeding 50°C, perhaps for more than one day, and on the south coast daily mins would be unbearable. They could even surpass African records, assuming they weren't already broken first.

[cheeky_monkey]

23 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

British Columbia has a record high of 49°c at roughly the same latitude. Very different dynamics but similar maritime influenced climate.

BC climate is only comparable to the UK along the coast ..interior BC has a totally different climate as it is set within the Rocky Mountains ..places like Lytton Kelowna and Kamloops have a hot almost arid type climate in summer 

[al78]

On 15/01/2024 at 22:34, CryoraptorA303 said:

Honestly, those rainfall statistics disturb me. Surely it can't be normal for an oceanic climate to see one month with basically no measurable rainfall, and then another with >100mm in the same year? There is no way this should be happening. It seems like the wettest years in that list had at least one extremely dry month, and the driest had at least one extremely wet month. 2018 is the most striking to me, the majority of 2018 was average or wetter than average, but the horrendously dry June still made it overall considerably drier than average as a year. 2022 is up there as well, that looks like it could be the statistics of a warm-summer mediterranean climate. Similarly with 2023, every month aside from May is wetter than average, except for February which is one of the driest on record. And there are people who think there is nothing to worry about?

My own perception is that blocked weather patterns have become more frequent over the last 15 years or so and this is leading to more frequent extended periods of either bone dry or soaking wet. Take a look at last year's HadUKP figures. There were four months out of 12 within the top decile for rainfall (records going back to 1766), three of those in the top 5%, and one (February) in the bottom 5%. The standard deviation of monthly rainfall in 2023 for England + Wales is the eighth highest (other years with high monthly rainfall variability are 2000, 2012 and 2020).

[raz.org.rain]

28 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

While the quality of that record has been questioned, it is agreed that Lytton reached at least 48.6°C on that day, and further in the centre of the town it is suggested that temps could've exceeded 50°C. Further south along the PNW seaboard temps were widely above 45°C on that day with even highly coastal areas reaching 42°C.

Lytton's record before that heatwave was around 44°C, so it would seem a comparably severe heatwave in western Europe would see us reach around 45°C, Paris around 47°C, perhaps nearing 48°C, and parts of southern France potentially exceeding 50°C. Western France could also widely see >45°C. Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands would also all likely see at least 45°C. Considering that heatwave also saw two record-breaking days before it, we would also very likely see consecutive days above 40°C and by the hottest day, the daily minima will be absolutely unimaginable, likely exceeding 30°C even inland and some coastal areas along the south and London probably seeing >32°C daily min by the end, with French cities like Paris and Nantes seeing similar or worse. The south coast of France might see high-30s, and the north and west coasts possibly <35°C. If Spain was also involved then they'd see even more unimaginable temperatures, with hotspots like Cordoba and Seville almost certainly exceeding 50°C, perhaps for more than one day, and on the south coast daily mins would be unbearable. They could even surpass African records, assuming they weren't already broken first.

It makes you wonder how long it'll be before such an extreme situation strikes in Western Europe. Generally speaking, since 2010, our record high temperatures get toppled within a few years of each other.

[CryoraptorA303]

18 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

BC climate is only comparable to the UK along the coast ..interior BC has a totally different climate as it is set within the Rocky Mountains ..places like Lytton Kelowna and Kamloops have a hot almost arid type climate in summer 

Yes, hence why I said a comparably severe heatwave would see us at around 45°C, and Lytton-like temps would only be seen much further south in France. The PNW seaboard still saw temps in excess of 45°C when their previous records weren't much higher than ours.

Edited January 17 by CryoraptorA303