General summer chat

[summer blizzard]

10 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I don’t think Summer 2011 was too bad here. I remember July 2011 seemed to be quite cool but fairly dry and sunny. Remember I went to an outdoor wedding that month and there was a heavy shower during the reception. I remember August 2011 was very cloudy though, not a great month, although I went on holiday to East Anglia for a week during that month and remember lots of dry, sunny weather, but back at home it was very dull and grey. I don’t like humidity either, June 2018, July 2013 and August 2022 would be an awesome summer combo.

For a gentler (but still fairly dry and sunny) summer, June 2015, July 2014 and August 2021 would be nice.

 

What I would really like to see from next summer though is much more thunderstorms. They seem to have almost disappeared here. I can’t remember even hearing a single rumble last summer. I used to get at least 1 or 2 thunderstorms every summer, usually after a warm/hot spell, but these days hot spells go out with a whimper instead of a bang here.

Yes I remember quite a lot of cloudy days in that month. Had a nice few days holiday in Skegness for a few days during that month and the weather was warm and very sunny, then had a few days up in the North East of England on the coast and I remember it was very cool and cloudy. The weather is almost always better when I go down south upon summer, oooooop north it’s just too cool and cloudy! A good example of that was coming home from Paignton in August 2017. It was very warm and very sunny over the bank holiday weekend with highs of around 23/24°C in the English riveria (and of anything felt warmer than that) but the next day came home to about 14°C and cloud. Felt like coming home after being abroad.

 

But August often is a cloudy month, at least in this part of the world and is often quite poor, often the poorest month of the summer, at least sunshine and rainfall wise. It isn’t usually a terrible washout month but it isn’t often very good either.

 

There have been very few good Augusts in recent years, at least here anyway. Here's how I’d rate recent Augusts.

 

2008 - Poor, Very cloudy

2009 - Ok 

2010 - Poor, cloudy 

2011 - Poor, very cloudy

2012 - Poor

2013 - Ok, cloudy at times

2014 - Poor

2015 - Mediocre 

2016 - Very up and down, remember some very cool and wet days and some very warm and sunny days

2017 - Poor, very cool and wet

2018 - Poor, felt very cool after the hot July and was also very cloudy

2019 - Poor, first week was warm, cloudy, unsettled and thundery then cool and unsettled for the middle of the month before turning very hot and very sunny during the last week

2020 - Rather poor outside of the heatwave, very cool at the end

2021 - Mediocre, very cloudy at times

2022 - Good

2023 - Mediocre

 

So only one August I’d actually class as good out of the last 16 Augusts. The have either been OK, mediocre or poor. The thing that tends to let August down the most is the dullness. I think this is because August tends to have a lot of SW’s which usually bring very dull, gloomy, overcast, sometimes drizzly conditions, with cool days around 17-19°C, but very mild nights around 13-16°C, and often quite high humidity. Not great summer conditions. Would much prefer a sunny high pressure with average or slightly above average days and cool nights. That tends to happen more in early summer though. Early summer and late spring is usually the sunniest time of the year here, due to the Atlantic being quieter and  when the wind is usually much more easterly. July and August are much more westerly and are warmer but also duller and wetter here.
 

 

Recent averages have skewed the expectation of August. Historically what we have seen is a bit wetter than expected but closer to the historic norm for August. We also had a string of warm August's between 90 and 04.

Last summer was actually quite thundery hear. Indeed, we've had a good run of thunder since 2017 here. Not sure if we had a notable event in 2022 but can recall every year aside from that. It may just be that this.

I'm suprised you got nothing notable in 20/21 as i remember a string of storms from the SE to the NW.   

9 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

My ideal summer would be something like June 2023, July 2018 and August 2016, but with some thunderstorms thrown in.

All were pleasant summer months with many warm or hot sunny days without feeling overly humid.

August 2016 was a pet hate month here. It was humid and dull much like July 10. Presumably, we were around the mean frontal boundary. 

[East Lancs Rain]

6 hours ago, Macc2023 said:

I know we are months away but is there any early signs on what Summer 2024 could be like?

GavsWeatherVids on YouTube normally does a summer “sneak peak” around this time of year. The CFS V2 model is currently forecasting a mixed summer. June and August look a bit dodgy and quite westerly with the south having the best conditions favoured. July is forecast to be the best month of the summer with the most high pressure. All three summer months are forecast to have above average temperatures but June the most, July and August only slightly above. Precipitation wise July looks to be the driest month, with June and August looking a bit mixed. So perhaps a kind of reverse 2009 summer forecast here with June and August being rather poor but July being the best month of the summer.

 

Looking at the Cansips model next, it is also forecasting a mixed summer. June looks very westerly and unsettled, especially in the north, with a rather weak Azores high. July looks pretty poor with the Azores high nowhere to be seen and plenty of low pressure around. August looks to be the best month with high pressure over the UK, although with unusually lower than average pressure over the Azores. Temperature wise June looks to be the coolest month only being slightly warmer than average, but July and August are forecast to be warmer. Precipitation wise June has a north south split with the north being wetter but the south being drier. July and August are forecast to be quite dry however. So it looks like Cansips is going for a back loaded summer with June being the poorest month and August being the best.

 

Of course, with it all being so far out it’s really just for fun!

[raz.org.rain]

8 hours ago, Macc2023 said:

I know we are months away but is there any early signs on what Summer 2024 could be like?

Long range models are supposedly suggesting a mixed bag. Some high pressure with above average and dry conditions, some low pressure with closer to average temperatures and wet. It might be worth analysing what those models were forecasting for this winter to get a sense of how reliable the long range forecasting is.

 

I wouldn't mind a mixed summer, it's sort of expected here. What I don't want is for literally just the British isles to be stuck under a constant bombardment of arctic air throughout high summer for several weeks while everywhere else gets a summer yet again.

Edited January 11 by raz.org.rain

[Sun Chaser]

On 10/01/2024 at 13:47, In Absence of True Seasons said:

It'd have been perceived as a far better, more average summer in the eyes of most people, I'd imagine. 

By the 3rd week in July on the trot of predominantly dull, drizzly and cool summer conditions, June was a distant memory for many. 

I feel like some see summer 2023 being pretty good as they remember the 5 weeks of sunny weather from mid May over anything else. The same kind of phenomenon that gives summer 2020 a stellar reputation among the general public due to the historically sunny spring despite June to August itself being consistently poor.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

3 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Long range models are supposedly suggesting a mixed bag. Some high pressure with above average and dry conditions, some low pressure with closer to average temperatures and we

They suggest a mixed bag every year tbh lol.

Which makes sense cos that's our standard summer conditions...

But literally zero point in taking any of it seriously at this stage. 

Bear in mind this time in 2023, the models suggested July 2023 to be the warmest, sunniest and driest summer month...and look how it turned out.

[Sun Chaser]

Just now, In Absence of True Seasons said:

They suggest a mixed bag every year tbh lol.

Which makes sense cos that's our standard summer conditions...

But literally zero point in taking any of it seriously at this stage. 

Bear in mind this time in 2023, the models suggested July 2023 to be the warmest, sunniest and driest summer month...and look how it turned out.

Not summer related but won't forget how the long range models all predicted February 2023 to be a barrage of low pressure just two months out. Remember looking at a HUGE blue anomaly over the UK.

Fairly sure in reality we didn't have a single day that recorded below 1015mb! 

[CryoraptorA303]

5 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Looking at the Cansips model next, it is also forecasting a mixed summer. June looks very westerly and unsettled, especially in the north, with a rather weak Azores high. July looks pretty poor with the Azores high nowhere to be seen and plenty of low pressure around. August looks to be the best month with high pressure over the UK, although with unusually lower than average pressure over the Azores. Temperature wise June looks to be the coolest month only being slightly warmer than average, but July and August are forecast to be warmer. Precipitation wise June has a north south split with the north being wetter but the south being drier. July and August are forecast to be quite dry however. So it looks like Cansips is going for a back loaded summer with June being the poorest month and August being the best.

You know what summer this sounds like to me?

But as others have said, this forecasting is frankly utterly useless due to the limits of chaos theory. At this point there are literally a thousand different directions we could go into up to that point.

43 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

I feel like some see summer 2023 being pretty good as they remember the 5 weeks of sunny weather from mid May over anything else. The same kind of phenomenon that gives summer 2020 a stellar reputation among the general public due to the historically sunny spring despite June to August itself being consistently poor.

I haven't seen that anywhere at all, the vast majority seem to remember July and early August above anything else. September 2023 already seems to be a totally forgotten heatwave despite its feats and it wouldn't surprise me if it's not even nominated for the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship next season (shameless self-plug ). June 2023 will be remembered for a bit longer but it's likely already relegated to the "throwaway June heatwaves" category.

41 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

Not summer related but won't forget how the long range models all predicted February 2023 to be a barrage of low pressure just two months out. Remember looking at a HUGE blue anomaly over the UK.

Fairly sure in reality we didn't have a single day that recorded below 1015mb! 

So what I'm seeing here is it got the February and July mixed up? Perhaps we should look at what long-terms are suggesting for February then?

48 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

The same kind of phenomenon that gives summer 2020 a stellar reputation among the general public due to the historically sunny spring despite June to August itself being consistently poor.

Probably also due to further SE it not being that wet at all, just a bit dull and not that hot. It still did have its moments in June after all, and the August heatwave will be incredibly strong in the memories of those on the south coast.

As for summer 2011 being mentioned earlier, I remember it as very pleasant. It was cloudy at times but overall was also quite sunny in East London where I lived at the time, can't say I remember an excessive number of cloudy days. The only serious rain I remember is the third week of August when it did come down heavily across the south. Apart from that, a very pleasant summer that I'd happily repeat.

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Sun Chaser said:

Not summer related but won't forget how the long range models all predicted February 2023 to be a barrage of low pressure just two months out. Remember looking at a HUGE blue anomaly over the UK.

Fairly sure in reality we didn't have a single day that recorded below 1015mb!

5th driest February (driest since 1998) here with 7.6mm and for England & Wales the 12th driest since at least 1766. Always wanted to experience a dry winter month that wasn't cold and Feb 2023 was just that. Up there with one of my favourite snowless or not cold winter months! Sunny one as well, almost 30 hours above the norm.

Edited January 11 by Metwatch

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, Sun Chaser said:

I feel like some see summer 2023 being pretty good as they remember the 5 weeks of sunny weather from mid May over anything else. The same kind of phenomenon that gives summer 2020 a stellar reputation among the general public due to the historically sunny spring despite June to August itself being consistently poor.

To be fair that heatwave in August 2020 and the extremely sunny May probably ensures 2020 has a positive reputation, even if the rest wasn't anything great.

Its worth remembering that before last year 2020 held I think 3 or 4 out of the top 10 hottest ever days (one at the end of July and the heatwave in August).

Summer of 2023 is basically similar, with one very impressive month of sunshine/dryness and one impressive heatwave for the time of year.

[CryoraptorA303]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its worth remembering that before last year 2020 held I think 3 or 4 out of the top 10 hottest ever days (one at the end of July and the heatwave in August).

July 31st was the third hottest day and August 7th was joint-tenth with August 6th 2003, I think. Come to think of it, they might have been joint-ninth with August 11th in tenth as July 2022 also had the current fourth place as well. Annoyingly we're missing a 39C day from the set. We're also almost completely missing 37Cs with just 37.1C and 37.8C - We have twice the number of 38C days. It would've been nice of August 2020 to add another 37C to the set with how ridiculous it was.

Edited January 11 by CryoraptorA303

[cheese]

51 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

5th driest February (driest since 1998) here with 7.6mm and for England & Wales the 12th driest since at least 1766. Always wanted to experience a dry winter month that wasn't cold and Feb 2023 was just that. Up there with one of my favourite snowless or not cold winter months! Sunny one as well, almost 30 hours above the norm.

February is the driest month of the year for a large part of England (including my location). There have been other mild and dry Februaries prior to 2023. February 1998 is probably the best example. 

Edited January 11 by cheese

[Metwatch]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

There have been other mild and dry Februaries prior to 2023.

I know and I even did a whole in depth thread in the historic section on mild dry and sunny winter months, but I was talking more about what i've experienced as a weather enthusiast which i've only been for a few years so far rather than a few decades that many on here are.

February 2019 could be considered another, but it was nowhere near as dry as 2023.

Edited January 11 by Metwatch

[B87]

Summer 2011 was dire here. Dull, wet and almost always below average temperatures. The spring and autumn that year were much better, though.

10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Recent averages have skewed the expectation of August. Historically what we have seen is a bit wetter than expected but closer to the historic norm for August. We also had a string of warm August's between 90 and 04.

August typically is very similar to July, with more humidity and shorter days. August is actually sunnier than July when accounting for the amount of possible sunshine, the sunniest month of the year here.

[CryoraptorA303]

34 minutes ago, cheese said:

February is the driest month of the year for a large part of England (including my location). There have been other mild and dry Februaries prior to 2023. February 1998 is probably the best example. 

Here it's considerably wetter than the spring months and July, and about equal to June and August. It used to be the driest though.

22 minutes ago, B87 said:

Summer 2011 was dire here. Dull, wet and almost always below average temperatures. The spring and autumn that year were much better, though.

Strange how we had such different experiences despite just being about 20 miles away from each other.

[CryoraptorA303]

28 minutes ago, B87 said:

August typically is very similar to July, with more humidity and shorter days. August is actually sunnier than July when accounting for the amount of possible sunshine, the sunniest month of the year here.

Aside from 2020, August seems to have taken a backseat on the heatwaves in recent years in favour of July. Reminds me of the 80s a bit. I can't help but think we're due a series of really nasty dry and hot Augusts now. 2022 of course mostly fits this description but it too was mostly the sideshow after July.

Up until last year June seems to have been really quiet as well. It's had the odd hot days here and there and the 2017 heatwave but really nothing as serious as what we've seen in July or even the relatively inactive August recently. It's time will come in the near future I'm sure.

Edited January 11 by CryoraptorA303

[B87]

Just now, CryoraptorA303 said:

Aside from 2020, August seems to have taken a backseat on the heatwaves in recent years in favour of July. Reminds me of the 80s a bit. I can't help but think we're due a series of really nasty dry and hot Augusts now.

Up until last year June seems to have been really quiet as well. It's had the odd hot days here and there and the 2017 heatwave but really nothing as serious as what we've seen in July or even the relatively inactive August recently. It's time will come in the near future I'm sure.

August 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 were all decent months. August 2022 was the warmest August on record here, due to the warmer nights than August 1995 (both months had average highs of 27.0c).

[CryoraptorA303]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

August 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 were all decent months. August 2022 was the warmest August on record here, due to the warmer nights than August 1995 (both months had average highs of 27.0c).

Oh of course, I'm not suggesting August has seen no activity. It just seems to be the sideshow more than anything lately apart from 2020, and even then the hottest day was on July 31st. 2022, 2019 and 2018 were all sideshows to the July before them and 2016 was the sideshow to September. Since 2003 and apart from 2020 none of the severe heatwaves have materialised in August. If anything September seems to be getting the more extreme heatwaves relative to August.

I'm waiting for when the next massive heatwave, or durationwave has its epicentre in August. Early August is the natural hottest point of the year and when we can see the most extreme temperatures if they materialise at that time. It's also had the entire Solar summer (May onwards) before it to dry the ground out. This year could even be the year that we get a severely hot and dry August, with the post-Nino and all.

[CryoraptorA303]

To add, the last year to have an annual maximum in August was 2013, and that was just on August 1st, so if this year has its annual max outside of August then that'll be 11 consecutive years without one. In that time we've had two maxes in September! Come on August!

It also appears that this is the longest consecutive stretch since at least 1875. The next longest stretches seem to be less than 10 years.

Edited January 11 by CryoraptorA303

[B87]

I disagree that August 2022 was a sideshow to July 2022. Take out the 40c day in July, and August would be the warmest month of the year comfortably. August was sunnier than July as well.

July 2022

Days above 25c: 21

Days above 27c: 17

Days above 30c: 5

Days above 32c: 2

Max: 40.2c

 

August 2022

Days above 25c: 22

Days above 27c: 13

Days above 30c: 5

Days above 32c: 4

Max: 34.2c

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, B87 said:

I disagree that August 2022 was a sideshow to July 2022. Take out the 40c day in July, and August would be the warmest month of the year comfortably. August was sunnier than July as well.

July 2022

Days above 25c: 21

Days above 27c: 17

Days above 30c: 5

Days above 32c: 2

Max: 40.2c

 

August 2022

Days above 25c: 22

Days above 27c: 13

Days above 30c: 5

Days above 32c: 4

Max: 34.2c

Ok, maybe not a sideshow, but it certainly wasn't the main show of the year, just a continuation of it. I'm talking about the last time August held an annual maximum and was the warmest, driest summer month of the year. I'd think this would have to be 2012, and that's not much of a testament, and before that maybe 2004. Vs the 90s where August was very much the main show more often than not.

[B87]

8 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Ok, maybe not a sideshow, but it certainly wasn't the main show of the year, just a continuation of it. I'm talking about the last time August held an annual maximum and was the warmest, driest summer month of the year. I'd think this would have to be 2012, and that's not much of a testament, and before that maybe 2004. Vs the 90s where August was very much the main show more often than not.

August was the warmest month of the year here in the following years, since 2000: 

2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2022

Sunniest of the year in:

2000, 2003, 2005, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2022

Since 2000, August has never been the driest month of the year, when measuring rainfall rather than rain days.

Edited January 11 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

10 minutes ago, B87 said:

Since 2000, August has never been the driest month of the year, when measuring rainfall rather than rain days.

I didn't say of the whole year; a summer month isn't going to be the driest of the year apart from the occasional July and very occasional August.

In how many of those years was August also the driest summer month?

Granted, an absolute max does not make the whole month, and yes I'm aware August 2022 was so hot as to be the hottest on record on the east coast.

Edited January 11 by CryoraptorA303

[B87]

Just now, CryoraptorA303 said:

I didn't say of the whole year; a summer month isn't going to be the driest of the year apart from the occasional July and very occasional August.

In how many of those years was August also the driest summer month?

Granted, an absolute max does not make the whole month, and yes I'm aware August 2022 was so hot as to be the hottest on record on the east coast.

Summer months can often be the driest month of the year, even more so when you look at May to September.

August was the driest summer month in the following years since 2000:

2002, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2019, 2021, 2023.

 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Aside from 2020, August seems to have taken a backseat on the heatwaves in recent years in favour of July. Reminds me of the 80s a bit. I can't help but think we're due a series of really nasty dry and hot Augusts now. 2022 of course mostly fits this description but it too was mostly the sideshow after July.

Up until last year June seems to have been really quiet as well. It's had the odd hot days here and there and the 2017 heatwave but really nothing as serious as what we've seen in July or even the relatively inactive August recently. It's time will come in the near future I'm sure.

Tbf the August 2022 heatwave saw 5 consecutive days above 30C here. That’s a rare feat for this part of the country. August 2022 was also comfortably warmer than July 2022 here and on par with August 1995. August 2022 was definitely the best month of 2022.

Edited January 11 by cheese

[cheese]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

Summer 2011 was dire here. Dull, wet and almost always below average temperatures. The spring and autumn that year were much better, though.

August typically is very similar to July, with more humidity and shorter days. August is actually sunnier than July when accounting for the amount of possible sunshine, the sunniest month of the year here.

I think that’s probably true for most of eastern and southern England. From May to September, June is the dullest month here in percentage terms, and August is almost sunnier than June in absolute terms despite June having a significant day length advantage. The high frequency of easterlies really ruins it here. From late June onward that’s less of a concern.

Edited January 11 by cheese