General summer chat

[In Absence of True Seasons]

14 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Some early outlooks...

Olympics organisers express concerns over the potential for extreme heat at 2024's Paris Olympics.

Could Paris be too hot for the Olympics next summer?

WWW.EURONEWS.COM

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France has escaped the worst of the searing heat this summer but organisers are remaining "very vigilant" about temperature forecasts.

 

I feel this is a tad dramatic and doomerish, personally. 

We don't really have much idea as to how Paris' summer will be in 2024...Its far enough North in Europe that summers are quite changeable, generally not extreme, and not particularly consistent year-on-year...a little like London really, but a tad warmer. I mean, it could be raining and 20c for much of the 2024 Olympics. Or it could be sunny and 34c...we just don't know.

The Olympics have been held in places that are (as standard) far, far warmer than Paris in Summer. Italy, Japan, Greece, and Brazil to name a few. Were the same concerns expressed then as well? 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

39 minutes ago, B87 said:

It was. The 22nd had a max of 18.8c with 9mm of rain. The 23rd was back to normal with 24.3c.

Thanks.

Any reason why the Heathrow stats are quite different to the temps on Met Office, BBC, phone forecasts etc? Is it ground temp vs air temp or something else?

[reef]

1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Thanks.

Any reason why the Heathrow stats are quite different to the temps on Met Office, BBC, phone forecasts etc? Is it ground temp vs air temp or something else?

Historical records in the UK are 0900 to 0900 GMT, so in summer you could be at 13C all day, but if it reaches 20C by 10am the next morning then the maximum for that day is 20C. Likewise, if its 2C at 0900GMT in winter on Tuesday but all of that night is in double figures, then the minimum for the Wednesday is 2C, not double figures.

It all balances out in the long run, but it means its quite hard to record extremely low maximums or extremely high minimums in summer.

[B87]

4 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Thanks.

Any reason why the Heathrow stats are quite different to the temps on Met Office, BBC, phone forecasts etc? Is it ground temp vs air temp or something else?

I find the phone forecasts and Google forecasts to always underperform when it comes to max temps. 

[B87]

2 minutes ago, reef said:

Historical records in the UK are 0900 to 0900 GMT, so in summer you could be at 13C all day, but if it reaches 20C by 10am the next morning then the maximum for that day is 20C. Likewise, if its 2C at 0900GMT in winter on Tuesday but all of that night is in double figures, then the minimum for the Wednesday is 2C, not double figures.

It all balances out in the long run, but it means its quite hard to record extremely low maximums or extremely high minimums in summer.

The 17.7c max temp on that day was recorded around midday, which is unusual but would still fall within the 09-09 timeframe.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'm convinced that summer 2023 was as bad as an early 2010s terrible summer redux can get these days. 

The westerlies were warmer than usual than they would have been due to SSTs being off the scale. I think that, combined with residual warmth from the June, stopped July 2023 from being worse than it could have been. People forget that July 2020 had a C.E.T. in the upper 14s/low 15s until about the 20th-25th, then one near-record hot day pushed it up to 15.8C. Conversely, 2015 had abnormally cool SSTs in the Atlantic even amongst global record heat meaning that, particularly across Ireland and further north-west, it was a pretty cool summer. I remember the final week of July 2015 being positively cold at times. Think some places had minima in mid single digits around that time. My point being is, yes, it's easier to scupper, but cool summer months like 2011 and 2012 are very much possible I think. I think 2023 had added variables on top of an already warmer world. July 2023 reminds me of August 2006, months that had cool synoptics but a warm continent/seas and lack of cool air to really be overly cool. 2006 and 2023 were quite similar in ways, just with some months mixed up and not quite as good. Does that mean a 2007 style summer for 2024? **** knows! I do think a proper, prolonged soaker with little heat spikes will come soon. I'd probably say some summer around 2025-2028 will do it when we've lost some of the effects of the water vapour (even that is debated, I know). Could even be 2024. Would be quite a shock if 2024 ends up with a cold winter and cool summer and ends up a relatively cool year. Some say it's impossible but no one thought sub-9 could ever happen again in 2009.

[Metwatch]

7 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Is this mostly from a place of climatic regularity/normality? I.e, what pur summers "should" be in a maritime climate? Or do you personally prefer wet, cool weather? 

Seeing as most months in Britain are cool, cloudy and wet, I myself it's a welcome relief to get 2/3 months (if that!) out of the year which are warm and dry. 

Summers just aren't very useable for anything outdoors if it's mostly cool and wet. I've been camping and hiking in sodden conditions enough times to know there's just not much fun in it unless you're a bit of a masochist, or part duck haha. 

I can understand not wanting summer to be hot, just comfortable for temperatures low to mid 20s most of the time with none of those 35 degree plus heatspikes. But wanting a 2007 or 2012 repeat with so much rain I just cannot fathom that Only plus with a wetter summer is that there will be more thunderstorms, i.e 2019, 2020, 2023, but I would rather a summer where it's warm and dryish but with some periodic thunderstorm outbreaks instead. I think a few in the 80s were like that maybe, 1981, 1983, 89 etc. Drier summers like 2018 or 2022 are poor for storms around here, better further east I think.

Edited January 8 by Metwatch

[raz.org.rain]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I can understand not wanting summer to be hot, just comfortable for temperatures low to mid 20s most of the time with none of those 35 degree plus heatspikes. But wanting a 2007 or 2012 repeat with so much rain I just cannot fathom that Only plus with a wetter summer is that there will be more thunderstorms, i.e 2019, 2020, 2023, but I would rather a summer where it's warm and dryish but with some periodic thunderstorm outbreaks instead. I think a few in the 80s were like that maybe, 1981, 1983, 89 etc.

Yeah, a cool and wet summer would not be a good thing. I'm fairly certain that agriculture suffered massively during those infamous summers in the late 2000s/early 2010s. 

[CryoraptorA303]

39 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I feel this is a tad dramatic and doomerish, personally. 

We don't really have much idea as to how Paris' summer will be in 2024...Its far enough North in Europe that summers are quite changeable, generally not extreme, and not particularly consistent year-on-year...a little like London really, but a tad warmer. I mean, it could be raining and 20c for much of the 2024 Olympics. Or it could be sunny and 34c...we just don't know.

The Olympics have been held in places that are (as standard) far, far warmer than Paris in Summer. Italy, Japan, Greece, and Brazil to name a few. Were the same concerns expressed then as well? 

I don't know, Paris has been getting extremely hot as of late. They got to 42.6°C in July 2019 and 40.5°C again in 2022, and between those they're getting to at least 36°C almost every year now - Even this September they got to 36.5°C. And in August 2003 they were above 38°C for an entire week. Quite incredible for somewhere that is so relatively far north to be experiencing these temps so often. A big heatwave striking during the Olympics could lead to some of the hottest conditions the games have ever been held in. Although overall, it's very unlikely that it'll be too hot day-to-day to hold the Olympics there.

[kold weather]

37 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I don't know, Paris has been getting extremely hot as of late. They got to 42.6°C in July 2019 and 40.5°C again in 2022, and between those they're getting to at least 36°C almost every year now - Even this September they got to 36.5°C. And in August 2003 they were above 38°C for an entire week. Quite incredible for somewhere that is so relatively far north to be experiencing these temps so often. A big heatwave striking during the Olympics could lead to some of the hottest conditions the games have ever been held in. Although overall, it's very unlikely that it'll be too hot day-to-day to hold the Olympics there.

A big heatwave of course could hit through there, I think the big difference though between Paris and other locations that have held the olympics (Brazil, Japan, etc) is the humidity that comes with the other locations. Paris undoubtably can go very hot, but it will rarely if ever be able to match the heat index of a peak summer heatwave of Tokyo or Rio, etc.

Thats where the real danger is, the combo of both high heat AND high humidity. 

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

Yeah, a cool and wet summer would not be a good thing. I'm fairly certain that agriculture suffered massively during those infamous summers in the late 2000s/early 2010s. 

It did, the impact was almost comparable to the worst droughts in modern history. 1995 and maybe 1976 and 2006 might've had a worse impact.

44 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A big heatwave of course could hit through there, I think the big difference though between Paris and other locations that have held the olympics (Brazil, Japan, etc) is the humidity that comes with the other locations. Paris undoubtably can go very hot, but it will rarely if ever be able to match the heat index of a peak summer heatwave of Tokyo or Rio, etc.

Thats where the real danger is, the combo of both high heat AND high humidity. 

Of course. Although it should be noted the Rio olympics were held outside of its hottest season so these extremes would not have been reached, and Tokyo obviously has the infrastructure to deal with hot, humid summer weather as that's what they've always had to deal with. The question is whether France could handle it were a severe heatwave of some description to break out as this region has historically not been one that regularly sees extreme summer heat until very recently and infrastructure is lagging behind. There are also concerns about the events that will take place further south and out in the Mediterranean were a severe heatwave to bring temperatures to the 40s there. Not to mention, the games are taking place right in the hottest few weeks of summer, so any severe heatwaves that do happen during the games will be at their absolute worst point in the year. As a final point, I doubt this has been taken into consideration but El Nino has a tendency to cause extensive seasonal lag (although this is by no means a rule), which on paper would make a severe European heatwave in 2024 much more likely to happen in high summer around the time the games are happening rather than earlier on in low summer.

The point the article is trying to make is cities like Paris can't bet on mild conditions anymore. Summers like 2023 are now the exception, and here in western Europe we are going to have to increasingly plan around the likelihood of extreme heat at some point in the summer, and the possibility of exceptionally severe heatwaves of a scale we haven't observed before in recorded history, either in terms of duration or absolute extremes.

[raz.org.rain]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

The westerlies were warmer than usual than they would have been due to SSTs being off the scale. I think that, combined with residual warmth from the June, stopped July 2023 from being worse than it could have been. People forget that July 2020 had a C.E.T. in the upper 14s/low 15s until about the 20th-25th, then one near-record hot day pushed it up to 15.8C. Conversely, 2015 had abnormally cool SSTs in the Atlantic even amongst global record heat meaning that, particularly across Ireland and further north-west, it was a pretty cool summer. I remember the final week of July 2015 being positively cold at times. Think some places had minima in mid single digits around that time. My point being is, yes, it's easier to scupper, but cool summer months like 2011 and 2012 are very much possible I think. I think 2023 had added variables on top of an already warmer world. July 2023 reminds me of August 2006, months that had cool synoptics but a warm continent/seas and lack of cool air to really be overly cool. 2006 and 2023 were quite similar in ways, just with some months mixed up and not quite as good. Does that mean a 2007 style summer for 2024? **** knows! I do think a proper, prolonged soaker with little heat spikes will come soon. I'd probably say some summer around 2025-2028 will do it when we've lost some of the effects of the water vapour (even that is debated, I know). Could even be 2024. Would be quite a shock if 2024 ends up with a cold winter and cool summer and ends up a relatively cool year. Some say it's impossible but no one thought sub-9 could ever happen again in 2009.

I think the major regional factor to consider is termination shock, as it's only really become a large influence from 2018(?) onwards. The general consensus is that sulphur pollutants were acting to mask much of the warming side effects from climate change across the northern hemisphere. Those pollutants have practically disappeared over the past few years. The more potent side effect of this is sky high SSTs. I would expect abnormal warm anomalies to be the major feature of our future weather. Weaker ocean currents are also a factor, generally speaking we'd be seeing less wet and cool weather in summer as the AMOC grows weaker and promotes blocking patterns. 

I think it would take something pretty drastic for a consistently wet and cool summer to occur. Considering that this winter was supposed to be the best analogue for a 2010/2012-style deep freeze cold winter, and so far it's given us a near record breaking mild December, I would argue that we're seeing this demonstrated.

Almost forgot about the expanding Hadley cell factor too. It seems to be a largely under appreciated factor in climatology, which is odd considering it's arguably having an observable effect via much stronger Iberian and Azores highs.

Edited January 8 by raz.org.rain

[CryoraptorA303]

56 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Almost forgot about the expanding Hadley cell factor too. It seems to be a largely under appreciated factor in climatology, which is odd considering it's arguably having an observable effect via much stronger Iberian and Azores highs.

It's quite easily visible on long-term reconstructed anomaly charts from the 1980s onwards. ~1990 would also be around the time we started to get significantly more serious heatwaves. The trend seems to be accelerating from that brief stoppage around 2010. I wouldn't even be that surprised if that period was the result of an immediate breakdown in the climate before the general trend returned with a vengeance, kind of like a very microscopic Younger Dryas. Of course people will suggest that the climate isn't changing this fast and this is just a cluster of particularly hot years being made much worse by climate change and we will see less extreme weather again for some time, and a common citation for this is the 2007-2012 period, however if you look at the longer term trend, that period seems to be the blip, if anything, and we're now simply back to regular programming.

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

I think it would take something pretty drastic for a consistently wet and cool summer to occur. Considering that this winter was supposed to be the best analogue for a 2010/2012-style deep freeze cold winter, and so far it's given us a near record breaking mild December, I would argue that we're seeing this demonstrated.

Agreed. I think I've mentioned this before but 2023 actually seems to resemble 1993 quite a lot, and 1993 is the last year that didn't reach 30°C at all. So if 2023 is now the absolute mildest year possible, chances are a summer 2012 probably isn't coming anytime soon.

Going off this, 1994 of course saw a very warm July for the time, so we can expect the very hot weather to come back next year all the same.

[East Lancs Rain]

6 hours ago, B87 said:

It was. The 22nd had a max of 18.8c with 9mm of rain. The 23rd was back to normal with 24.3c.

That’s like a normal summers day here lol. A showery westerly in July would deliver that temp/rainfall here. Shows how much better Londons summers are.

2 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

I think the major regional factor to consider is termination shock, as it's only really become a large influence from 2018(?) onwards. The general consensus is that sulphur pollutants were acting to mask much of the warming side effects from climate change across the northern hemisphere. Those pollutants have practically disappeared over the past few years. The more potent side effect of this is sky high SSTs. I would expect abnormal warm anomalies to be the major feature of our future weather. Weaker ocean currents are also a factor, generally speaking we'd be seeing less wet and cool weather in summer as the AMOC grows weaker and promotes blocking patterns. 

I think it would take something pretty drastic for a consistently wet and cool summer to occur. Considering that this winter was supposed to be the best analogue for a 2010/2012-style deep freeze cold winter, and so far it's given us a near record breaking mild December, I would argue that we're seeing this demonstrated.

Almost forgot about the expanding Hadley cell factor too. It seems to be a largely under appreciated factor in climatology, which is odd considering it's arguably having an observable effect via much stronger Iberian and Azores highs.

Maybe we should bring back the sulphur pollutants then! What is the Hadley cell factor? I think it would still be quite easy to get a consistently wet summer in the UK, especially now we often seem to get locked in to a pattern for weeks on end. All it would take is a big Greenland high and with low pressure anchored over the UK, which is the pattern that traditionally gives us our worst summers and also our coldest winters. Or if we had the same Synoptics over October, November and December, that would produce a really poor summer. However, Greenland blocking has mostly been absent over the last decade, which explains why we’ve had mostly mild winters and average/warm/hot summers. The first half of June 2019 had that pattern - and it was absolutely diabolical - many days had heavy rain all day and maximums of just 11-12°C here, and the house was freezing, had to put the heating on. In June!  I’m personally looking forward to warmer and drier summers, seeing as summers are traditionally cool and wet in my part of the world, but I’m hoping we don’t continue to get more extreme heatwaves.

5 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I don't know, Paris has been getting extremely hot as of late. They got to 42.6°C in July 2019 and 40.5°C again in 2022, and between those they're getting to at least 36°C almost every year now - Even this September they got to 36.5°C. And in August 2003 they were above 38°C for an entire week. Quite incredible for somewhere that is so relatively far north to be experiencing these temps so often. A big heatwave striking during the Olympics could lead to some of the hottest conditions the games have ever been held in. Although overall, it's very unlikely that it'll be too hot day-to-day to hold the Olympics there.

Maybe they should hold the olympics in Iceland! No problems with heat up there.

5 hours ago, Metwatch said:

I can understand not wanting summer to be hot, just comfortable for temperatures low to mid 20s most of the time with none of those 35 degree plus heatspikes. But wanting a 2007 or 2012 repeat with so much rain I just cannot fathom that Only plus with a wetter summer is that there will be more thunderstorms, i.e 2019, 2020, 2023, but I would rather a summer where it's warm and dryish but with some periodic thunderstorm outbreaks instead. I think a few in the 80s were like that maybe, 1981, 1983, 89 etc. Drier summers like 2018 or 2022 are poor for storms around here, better further east I think.

I agree. A 2007/2012 would bring absolutely atrocious weather here. It wouldn’t be too bad in London, average maximums would still be in the low 20’s and there would still be some nice days, but up north it would be much worse. 

5 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

The westerlies were warmer than usual than they would have been due to SSTs being off the scale. I think that, combined with residual warmth from the June, stopped July 2023 from being worse than it could have been. People forget that July 2020 had a C.E.T. in the upper 14s/low 15s until about the 20th-25th, then one near-record hot day pushed it up to 15.8C. Conversely, 2015 had abnormally cool SSTs in the Atlantic even amongst global record heat meaning that, particularly across Ireland and further north-west, it was a pretty cool summer. I remember the final week of July 2015 being positively cold at times. Think some places had minima in mid single digits around that time. My point being is, yes, it's easier to scupper, but cool summer months like 2011 and 2012 are very much possible I think. I think 2023 had added variables on top of an already warmer world. July 2023 reminds me of August 2006, months that had cool synoptics but a warm continent/seas and lack of cool air to really be overly cool. 2006 and 2023 were quite similar in ways, just with some months mixed up and not quite as good. Does that mean a 2007 style summer for 2024? **** knows! I do think a proper, prolonged soaker with little heat spikes will come soon. I'd probably say some summer around 2025-2028 will do it when we've lost some of the effects of the water vapour (even that is debated, I know). Could even be 2024. Would be quite a shock if 2024 ends up with a cold winter and cool summer and ends up a relatively cool year. Some say it's impossible but no one thought sub-9 could ever happen again in 2009.

I quite liked the summer of 2015 for its lack of hot days and it’s apart for the poor July - it’s generally quite average conditions. June wasn’t too bad, had some nice days, I remember some nice weather around my birthday. 1st July 2015 was really hot, think it got to about 31°C on that day here, but a couple of days later it was much cooler, and most of the month had sub 20°C maximums here. There were some very cool and wet days too. Especially at the end of the month when some days were only around 12-14°C and raining. I was on digital spy forums at the time and someone made a thread “why is it so cold”. There were a lot of people moaning about the weather that month. August 2015 was better but nothing special. Had a nice holiday in St Ives in late August 2015. Remember some nice weather on the bank holiday weekend and it was quite sunny, although often cool and breezy. I preferred it to summer 2016 which was a bit warmer but also duller and wetter, and also summer 2017 which was too chilly and never stopped raining. I looked at the anomaly charts for that summer recently, sunshine and rainfall didn’t come out too far from average, but temperatures were a bit below average compared to the modern averages, but were close to the 1961-1990 average. Had the SST’s been warmer it might have managed the 1981-2010 average. It was the last average summer in the UK really. Since then they have either been warmer than average, wetter than average, or both.

 

As for Summer 2011, I remember June and July being quite cool but quite dry and sunny. Not much heat in that summer. I remember August 2011 being very cloudy, apart from when I went on holiday to East Anglia for a week and I remember the weather was warm and very sunny.

5 hours ago, reef said:

Historical records in the UK are 0900 to 0900 GMT, so in summer you could be at 13C all day, but if it reaches 20C by 10am the next morning then the maximum for that day is 20C. Likewise, if its 2C at 0900GMT in winter on Tuesday but all of that night is in double figures, then the minimum for the Wednesday is 2C, not double figures.

It all balances out in the long run, but it means its quite hard to record extremely low maximums or extremely high minimums in summer.

To me, it would make more sense to do it from 00:00 to 00:00. Otherwise you get misleading statistics like in the examples you gave.

 

[Sun Chaser]

Lovely mid April warm spell on the CFS! Not long to go until this kind of thing is possible again.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, Sun Chaser said:

Lovely mid April warm spell on the CFS! Not long to go until this kind of thing is possible again.

Interesting. Would be nice, although...that's 3+ months away! The models often fall apart 24-48 hours out lol, let alone 3 months... 

We'll have to wait and see and hope for the best. 

[reef]

1 hour ago, Sun Chaser said:

Lovely mid April warm spell on the CFS! Not long to go until this kind of thing is possible again.

That would be anything but warm! The wind is coming off the North Sea. Cloudy and 8C for a lot of England more like.

[MP-R]

34 minutes ago, reef said:

That would be anything but warm! The wind is coming off the North Sea. Cloudy and 8C for a lot of England more like.

Pressures high, isobars far apart, warm uppers… away from the east coast it would be very decent indeed. 

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, reef said:

That would be anything but warm! The wind is coming off the North Sea. Cloudy and 8C for a lot of England more like.

 

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Pressures high, isobars far apart, warm uppers… away from the east coast it would be very decent indeed. 

Looks like the kind of thing where Scotland would record the highest temps.

[MP-R]

48 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 

Looks like the kind of thing where Scotland would record the highest temps.

Yep quite common in that sort of setup.

[East Lancs Rain]

 

21 hours ago, Metwatch said:

I can understand not wanting summer to be hot, just comfortable for temperatures low to mid 20s most of the time with none of those 35 degree plus heatspikes. But wanting a 2007 or 2012 repeat with so much rain I just cannot fathom that Only plus with a wetter summer is that there will be more thunderstorms, i.e 2019, 2020, 2023, but I would rather a summer where it's warm and dryish but with some periodic thunderstorm outbreaks instead. I think a few in the 80s were like that maybe, 1981, 1983, 89 etc. Drier summers like 2018 or 2022 are poor for storms around here, better further east I think.

Yes I don’t really understand it either. Unless you just hate warm and sunny weather so much, or love getting wet… Maximums of 10-15°C and raining all day… We just had that from October to December.

 

And recent summers have tended to be wetter than average. I hope it’s a dry summer this year.

 

And thunderstorms are quite rare in summer here these days (or at any time of the year). I can’t remember any thunder at all last summer. 
 

The next few months look pretty good on the CFS monthlies, some cold potential in February for winter lovers then looks mostly high pressure dominated after that. June looks a bit dodgy with that Greenland high though..

 

 

Edited January 9 by East Lancs Rain

[Sun Chaser]

10 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Interesting. Would be nice, although...that's 3+ months away! The models often fall apart 24-48 hours out lol, let alone 3 months... 

We'll have to wait and see and hope for the best. 

Obviously!! Especially with the CFS anything on that model I usually take for fun and not much else. Remember checking CFS in February 2023 and it was showing July to be another heat fest with high pressure to our east the entire month. Turned out well didn't it

[raz.org.rain]

7 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

And recent summers have tended to be wetter than average. I hope it’s a dry summer this year.

And thunderstorms are quite rare in summer here these days (or at any time of the year). I can’t remember any thunder at all last summer. 

Personally I would assume that drier summers would occur more frequently and closer together in future, the trends certainly do suggest that this is the direction we're heading in. It certainly does feel like we've had more than our fair share of wetter than average, so here's hoping the upcoming summer is dry with plenty of heat to go around.

Edited January 9 by raz.org.rain

[East Lancs Rain]

On 07/01/2024 at 18:14, cheese said:

Hoping for a June like 1976, a July like 2018 and an August like 2022. Is that too much to ask for?

I would personally prefer something a bit more toned down - June 2018, July 2014 and August 2013 would be ideal for me - plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather but nothing crazy hot. Would be great if we could have a repeat of May 2018 and September 2021 for an extended summer as well.

[cheese]

14 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I would personally prefer something a bit more toned down - June 2018, July 2014 and August 2013 would be ideal for me - plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather but nothing crazy hot. Would be great if we could have a repeat of May 2018 and September 2021 for an extended summer as well.

August 2013 wasn't sunny enough imo. It was warm and had some good thunderstorms here though so I wouldn't say no.

Edited January 9 by cheese