General summer chat

[In Absence of True Seasons]

12 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Speaking for here they were not comparable. 

2018 was spectacular from May through mid-August. It was dry, it was hot, it was sunny and only in mid-July to mid-August did we see humidity become an issue. It even had spectacular storms here in late May and July. 

2022 here was meh until 2 hot days in July. We then finally got a hot first half to August and warm afterwards until about mid-September. 

In terms of duration we probably only have 2003 that compares to 2018 albeit 06 and 95 had stonking 60 day or so periods that were perhaps better.

Would probably put May-June 18 just behind June-July 06 myself but I was too young to remember much from 95 and 97 (don't think 03 was comparable). 

For me I'd actually say that July-August 22 ranks behind July-August 13.

 

2022 was quite location dependent, as our summer seasons often tend to be.

I have a friend who lives in Sheffield and he regularly voiced his frustrations that it was cool and cloudy in his ends, whilst us in London / SE had warma and sunny conditions. 

Undoubtedly the best summer of the past 10 years for me, with 2018 closely following

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

3 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

When was the last time that we had a solid 3/3 summer months that were pleasantly warm/hot and not too wet? Not necessarily scorchingly hot or none dry, but just consistently summer-like weather?

It seems like we often hit one decent month like June 2023 or August 2022 but get punished for it with rain and cold temperatures in the other months. Last year was such a disappointment after a perfect June.

2018 probably the closest to it nationally speaking.

2022 for me in London. 

Reality is, our climate simply isn't conducive to producing a summer where all 3/3 of the summer months are (more or less) consistently warm, sunny and dry. We just aren't continental enough for it, so it shouldn't be expected. 

Our classic summer set-up is changeable, cool(ish), cloudy and quite humid conditions, interspersed with the odd heatwave (generally one in each summer month at minimum) that lasts 3-5 days and brings a solid spell of sunny weather above 25c. 

This still stands true now, regardless of climate change, whose primary effect on our summers seems to be in bringing more extreme max temps during the aforementioned heatwaves. It's not bringing us a more "continental" climate in terms of consistent, reliable summery weather. I actually feel like our summers are generally cloudier and wetter now vs when I was young, albeit with the much greater % chance of 30c+ spells landing.

Look at the last few years for example. Or even the years since, say 2010. Outside of 2022 which was a massive outlier year, and 2018, the summers have predominantly been unreliable and classic maritime conditions...with the odd, random heatwaves thrown in here and there. 

Funnily enough, we often get our most 'reliable" spells of pleasant weather in terms of sunny, warm and useable, in May and September. 2020 was a classic example of this. 2023 to an extent as well, where May-June brought the sunny, warm and dry spell, and September brought the big heatwave, but July and August for the most part we're utter dross.

Edited January 14 by In Absence of True Seasons

[East Lancs Rain]

3 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

When was the last time that we had a solid 3/3 summer months that were pleasantly warm/hot and not too wet? Not necessarily scorchingly hot or none dry, but just consistently summer-like weather?

It seems like we often hit one decent month like June 2023 or August 2022 but get punished for it with rain and cold temperatures in the other months. Last year was such a disappointment after a perfect June.

I’m not sure, maybe 2003? 2013? I know 1976 was consistently hot, dry and sunny (although even that summer had a brief unsettled spell in June) but that was a really long time ago.

14 hours ago, cheese said:

I agree with this. I really dislike front-loaded summers and would have preferred June’s weather in July. That September heatwave would have been much hotter if it occurred in August instead.

Have to say I disagree, I’m not a fan of scorching hot weather, so I’m glad that last summer the heat occurred outside of high summer. Had Junes heat occurred in July it would have been absolutely scorching, with probably a 19C CET (considering Junes CET was nearly 3C above average). Whereas with the very warm weather occurring in June, it was a very pleasant month without being too hot (although I did find the third week a bit too hot). And had the cool wet weather occurred in June, it would have been even cooler than it would have been in July. And I’m glad the September heatwave occurred in early September instead of August. It was hot enough in early September, and it was also perfectly timed for my holiday in the Cotswolds, reached 31C on one day.

2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think at this rate the most similar summer we have to this year coming up will be 2016 in the sense of west QBO and growing la niña as time elapses.     I'm not panicking either as 2016 was one of my favourite weather years, August was lovely of that year.

2016 wasn’t a great summer here. I remember June was very warm but wet, very warm and humid in the first half, very wet in the second half, and very cool as well in the last week. I remember one day it was raining heavily all morning and only 12°C. July was very westerly and mixed, but had below average daytime temperature, above average rainfall and below average sunshine here. The only real warmth was one day when it got to about 30°C on the 19th. August was very up and down here, but overall temperatures were close to average but again with above average rainfall and below average sunshine. Overall it was a poor summer here.

[Metwatch]

13 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Speaking for here they were not comparable. 

2018 was spectacular from May through mid-August. It was dry, it was hot, it was sunny and only in mid-July to mid-August did we see humidity become an issue. It even had spectacular storms here in late May and July. 

2022 here was meh until 2 hot days in July. We then finally got a hot first half to August and warm afterwards until about mid-September. 

In terms of duration we probably only have 2003 that compares to 2018 albeit 06 and 95 had stonking 60 day or so periods that were perhaps better.

Would probably put May-June 18 just behind June-July 06 myself but I was too young to remember much from 95 and 97 (don't think 03 was comparable). 

For me I'd actually say that July-August 22 ranks behind July-August 13.

 

I'd agree as well 2018 takes the win but maybe the reason for that is because I missed the second half of August 2018 when staying in south west France which was the unsettled part of 2018, and conversely I missed the August 2022 heat as I was also out of the country. Glad I managed to experience the hottest day on record, as much as it was getting to uncomfortable levels even for me, it's something which just had to be experienced.

Both summers were quite poor for thunderstorms (just remember one in early August 2018), but that was to be expected around my area when they are dry.

[CryoraptorA303]

6 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

When was the last time that we had a solid 3/3 summer months that were pleasantly warm/hot and not too wet? Not necessarily scorchingly hot or none dry, but just consistently summer-like weather?

It seems like we often hit one decent month like June 2023 or August 2022 but get punished for it with rain and cold temperatures in the other months. Last year was such a disappointment after a perfect June.

Essentially never, because that doesn't happen in our climate. 2018, 1995 and 1976 are probably the three closest to this ever occuring. 1989 is touted as being this as well although I suspect some selective memory is in play for this one as there are numerous breaks in the warm/hot and dry conditions.

16 hours ago, kold weather said:

Locally I'd say 2022 went even beyond 2018 in terms of just how parched everything became, and locally we had a few more days of nil rainfall than in 2018. Of course 2018 was more front loaded and probably longer, whilst 2022 extreme period was held within a 40-45 day period from early July through to mid August but was more intense at its peak, obviously!

2022 didn't start in July, it'd been dry since November 2021. I think 2022 even beat 1976 for the overall driest six month period on record, although don't hold me to that. It's also one of the only years on record that had a warm March spell and didn't end up with a mild and wet summer.

6 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

August 2022 but get punished for it with rain and cold temperatures

I dare you to look up the rainfall statistics for 2022, or what day holds the all-time record high...

Also, I notice you're in Manchester, which is near the west coast on the other side of the Pennines. The chances of you ever seeing a full three month period of warm to hot and dry conditions with almost no break is frankly next to zero. Normal summer weather for you is relatively cool, cloudy and frequent showers.

7 hours ago, kold weather said:

but personally made to feel better than it actually was due to 07-12 being so shoddy for summers, especially 2012. 

Honestly 2010 was really not that "bad" aside from a couple of weeks in August and maybe the beginning of June. Aside from that it looks decent. August 2009 was decent as well and that fell directly in the holiday season. Out of that list the only ones I'd say were actually "bad" are 2007 and 2012, and maybe 2008 and 2011 depending on location. 2008 and 2011 were definitely not that bad further south. With 2011 I feel that people are having selective memory with the third week of August which really seems to be the only notable rainy spell all summer, with the rest just not being that exceptional in any way. Even when I was further west on holiday I remember most of it being decently sunny and warm, with it only becoming bad as that storm passed through. It will also seem comparitively disappointing because of the record hot April before and the September-October heatwave after it.

2 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I actually feel like our summers are generally cloudier and wetter now vs when I was young, albeit with the much greater % chance of 30c+ spells landing.

The stats show that this is just simply not the case. All three summer months are nationally sunnier in 1991-2020 than in 1961-1990. July is also drier and the other two have seen negligible change. The summer season is also being pushed further and further into autumn with September being significantly drier and sunnier in 91-20 vs 61-90. That's probably the influence of the expanding Hadley cell as the subtropical ridge is at its northernmost point in September.

What is more likely is the rainy spells when they do happen are becoming more intense, and as you don't like this weather, you are selectively remembering this as being worse than the selectively-remembered summers of your earlier life. Assuming 1995 and August 1997 occured during your early life, these would've had a profound impact on what a normal summer is supposed to look like to you.

2 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

It's not bringing us a more "continental" climate in terms of consistent, reliable summery weather

You don't need a continental climate for persistent warm/hot and dry in summer at all, humid subtropical and mediterranean climates totally disprove that notion, with humid subtropical climates going long stretches without much measurable rainfall before large storms empty their contents over a few days, and mediterranean climates experiencing persistently dry and sunny conditions under the influence of semi-permanent high pressure systems.

2 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Funnily enough, we often get our most 'reliable" spells of pleasant weather in terms of sunny, warm and useable, in May and September. 2020 was a classic example of this. 2023 to an extent as well, where May-June brought the sunny, warm and dry spell, and September brought the big heatwave, but July and August for the most part we're utter dross.

September yes as mentioned, but May absolutely not. April has become the fastest-changing spring month and has seen far more exceptional spells than May has. May 2020 and 2012 are more or less the only notable May spells to have occured in this century so far, with the hot few days in May 2005, and 2008 and 2010 being kind of notable but not to a huge extent, whereas April has had 2007, 2011, 2017, 2018 and 2020.

May is hour-for-hour the sunniest month of the year for many locations, especially further north, so long sunny spells are not hard to get out of May and it's not that unusual.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

16 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Essentially never, because that doesn't happen in our climate. 2018, 1995 and 1976 are probably the three closest to this ever occuring. 1989 is touted as being this as well although I suspect some selective memory is in play for this one as there are numerous breaks in the warm/hot and dry conditions.

2022 didn't start in July, it'd been dry since November 2021. I think 2022 even beat 1976 for the overall driest six month period on record, although don't hold me to that. It's also one of the only years on record that had a warm March spell and didn't end up with a mild and wet summer.

I dare you to look up the rainfall statistics for 2022, or what day holds the all-time record high...

Also, I notice you're in Manchester, which is near the west coast on the other side of the Pennines. The chances of you ever seeing a full three month period of warm to hot and dry conditions with almost no break is frankly next to zero. Normal summer weather for you is relatively cool, cloudy and frequent showers.

Honestly 2010 was really not that "bad" aside from a couple of weeks in August and maybe the beginning of June. Aside from that it looks decent. August 2009 was decent as well and that fell directly in the holiday season. Out of that list the only ones I'd say were actually "bad" are 2007 and 2012, and maybe 2008 and 2011 depending on location. 2008 and 2011 were definitely not that bad further south. With 2011 I feel that people are having selective memory with the third week of August which really seems to be the only notable rainy spell all summer, with the rest just not being that exceptional in any way. Even when I was further west on holiday I remember most of it being decently sunny and warm, with it only becoming bad as that storm passed through. It will also seem comparitively disappointing because of the record hot April before and the September-October heatwave after it.

The stats show that this is just simply not the case. All three summer months are nationally sunnier in 1991-2020 than in 1961-1990. July is also drier and the other two have seen negligible change. The summer season is also being pushed further and further into autumn with September being significantly drier and sunnier in 91-20 vs 61-90. That's probably the influence of the expanding Hadley cell as the subtropical ridge is at its northernmost point in September.

What is more likely is the rainy spells when they do happen are becoming more intense, and as you don't like this weather, you are selectively remembering this as being worse than the selectively-remembered summers of your earlier life. Assuming 1995 and August 1997 occured during your early life, these would've had a profound impact on what a normal summer is supposed to look like to you.

You don't need a continental climate for persistent warm/hot and dry in summer at all, humid subtropical and mediterranean climates totally disprove that notion, with humid subtropical climates going long stretches without much measurable rainfall before large storms empty their contents over a few days, and mediterranean climates experiencing persistently dry and sunny conditions under the influence of semi-permanent high pressure systems.

September yes as mentioned, but May absolutely not. April has become the fastest-changing spring month and has seen far more exceptional spells than May has. May 2020 and 2012 are more or less the only notable May spells to have occured in this century so far, with the hot few days in May 2005, and 2008 and 2010 being kind of notable but not to a huge extent, whereas April has had 2007, 2011, 2017, 2018 and 2020.

May is hour-for-hour the sunniest month of the year for many locations, especially further north, so long sunny spells are not hard to get out of May and it's not that unusual.

Some interesting info thanks.

Probably a bit of a case of "rose tinted youth" then. 

We tend to subconsciously filter positive elements from our childhood... My recollection is long, hazy and sunny summer holidays as a childhood. But obviously the stats show that recent summers are sunnier on average. 

I'm born In 1993 so was a toddler in 1995-1997

[raz.org.rain]

6 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think at this rate the most similar summer we have to this year coming up will be 2016 in the sense of west QBO and growing la niña as time elapses.     I'm not panicking either as 2016 was one of my favourite weather years, August was lovely of that year.

I don't remember much about 2016, it was very nondescript I guess. As long as we get some extended spells of very hot weather to compensate for overly wet and cool conditions it would be tolerable.

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

2022 was quite location dependent, as our summer seasons often tend to be.

I have a friend who lives in Sheffield and he regularly voiced his frustrations that it was cool and cloudy in his ends, whilst us in London / SE had warma and sunny conditions. 

Undoubtedly the best summer of the past 10 years for me, with 2018 closely following

 

It was very much a southern thing was 2022 before August. 

Somebody who lives in Manchester and London on here was illustrating earlier last year how the maxima in London were indicative of a proper 2 week 25+ hotspell basically making it a summer of two halves however in Manchester (and it fits with my own memory here), we basically had 2 hot days and 3 or 4 warm days scattered in tht two weeks. 

August 2022 was more national, probably because it was UK/Scandi High based. 

[kold weather]

3 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 

Honestly 2010 was really not that "bad" aside from a couple of weeks in August and maybe the beginning of June. Aside from that it looks decent. August 2009 was decent as well and that fell directly in the holiday season. Out of that list the only ones I'd say were actually "bad" are 2007 and 2012, and maybe 2008 and 2011 depending on location. 2008 and 2011 were definitely not that bad further south. With 2011 I feel that people are having selective memory with the third week of August which really seems to be the only notable rainy spell all summer, with the rest just not being that exceptional in any way. Even when I was further west on holiday I remember most of it being decently sunny and warm, with it only becoming bad as that storm passed through. It will also seem comparitively disappointing because of the record hot April before and the September-October heatwave after it.

Summer of 2007 and 2012 were really dreadful as you say, bar perhaps the odd week (Olympics week in 12 for example).

As for 08 and 11, personally any summer that has all three months below average, above normal rainfall and below average sunshine like 2011 does cannot IMO go down as anything other than below par, and 2008 was really very wet (August was utterly atrocious).

Only 2010 as you say probably is at par, or maybe a little above as it did have a pretty good June from what I remember, but very little stands out from that summer.

The whole period from 07-12 just is a blank for good summer weather, I'm sure there were good weeks but overall compared to what we've seen in other years its a whole load of meh to me bookended by probably 2 of the worst summers in the last 25 years.

[CryoraptorA303]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Probably a bit of a case of "rose tinted youth" then. 

We tend to subconsciously filter positive elements from our childhood... My recollection is long, hazy and sunny summer holidays as a childhood. But obviously the stats show that recent summers are sunnier on average. 

I'm born In 1993 so was a toddler in 1995-1997

The string of years 2003-2006 would have occured during your formative years, so this would've had a huge impact on what normal summers are supposed to look like. You were probably also old enough in 1997 for the really hot August to have had some level of impact. 1995 is a stretch but with how exceptional it was it's possible. I still remember going to the beach on May 27th 2005 despite being two years old and I remember bits and pieces of really hot days throughout July 2006. Were I two or three years older I'm sure some of the extreme heat from August 2003 would've made its way through as well.

Conversely the string of mild summers 2007-2012 happened right through my most formative years so these have undoubtely had a big impact on my idea of an average summer and likely explains why I wasn't fazed by 2021 or July 2023.

It makes you wonder how much of our weather preferences come about via our childhood experiences. The cold snaps and mild summers of the late 00s-early 2010s coincided with some of my best memories while the mild winters and extremely hot summers of the 2010s coincided with some of my worst memories, and this lines up with my preferences as an adult. Similarly, Springs 2011 and 2012 also coincided with some of my best memories and now as an adult spring is the only season of the year where I actually like dry, sunny and perhaps slightly above average temps. Very intriguing stuff

 

21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Summer of 2007 and 2012 were really dreadful as you say, bar perhaps the odd week (Olympics week in 12 for example).

As for 08 and 11, personally any summer that has all three months below average, above normal rainfall and below average sunshine like 2011 does cannot IMO go down as anything other than below par, and 2008 was really very wet (August was utterly atrocious).

Only 2010 as you say probably is at par, or maybe a little above as it did have a pretty good June from what I remember, but very little stands out from that summer.

The whole period from 07-12 just is a blank for good summer weather, I'm sure there were good weeks but overall compared to what we've seen in other years its a whole load of meh to me bookended by probably 2 of the worst summers in the last 25 years.

This makes sense, the lack of any real notable heat in that string makes the "inbetweeners" seem even worse. For instance, if summer 2011 had occured between two random years in the later 2010s, we probably wouldn't have been that fazed by it. It'd be below average and wet but not grossly so. 2010 would outright likely be remembered as an overall ok summer, but with a below par end. Summer 2017 for example, remove the June heatwave and it's honestly not much different from something like 2010. It very much gave up after early July. But it wasn't that bad, and it's between 2016 and 2018 so it's not remembered for being awful. If summers 2014, 2016 or 2017 took the place of 2010 or 2011 they'd likely have a much worse reputation. 2015 would have an outright disastrous reputation as the August is already (mostly rightly tbh) lambasted.

But because 2010 and 2011, and to a lesser extent 2009 although that really did have an extremely wet July, didn't offer anything truly notable and don't stand out, they are simply lumped into the 2007-2012 bracket as the "garbage years". 2011's case likely isn't helped by the upside-down omega-shaped year, with the record hot April and then the Ocotber record on both sides of an overall unimpressive summer.

To demonstrate this point, everyone who's reading this, take a guess at what 2011's maximum temperature was. You're not allowed to look it up, and don't spoil it if you already know.

[summer blizzard]

41 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Summer of 2007 and 2012 were really dreadful as you say, bar perhaps the odd week (Olympics week in 12 for example).

As for 08 and 11, personally any summer that has all three months below average, above normal rainfall and below average sunshine like 2011 does cannot IMO go down as anything other than below par, and 2008 was really very wet (August was utterly atrocious).

Only 2010 as you say probably is at par, or maybe a little above as it did have a pretty good June from what I remember, but very little stands out from that summer.

The whole period from 07-12 just is a blank for good summer weather, I'm sure there were good weeks but overall compared to what we've seen in other years its a whole load of meh to me bookended by probably 2 of the worst summers in the last 25 years.

It's always interesting to think there are now people here who don't remember 07-12 and can only reference statistics (for those of us here back then, it sticks in the memory like 09-10-13 does for summer. 

But yeah, 07 and 12 were basically a dream for those of us who dislike summer and we're truly horrific for the majority on here. Akin to winter 2014.

Summer 2008 was horrifically dull and generally wet and cool. Summer 2011 while dry ish was the coolest in about 25 years and basically devoid of heat after the opening days of June.

Summer 2009 is remembered by those who only look at statistics as being okay but in actuality it was what we can call a plume fail summer. Basically in June and August it tended to be humid but outside the south east it was barely memorable as the heat would always plume to our east. 

Summer 2010 is the one people forget most and glorify but in reality June was about as average nationally as you can get and from about the 10th July, summer was basically done north of Yorkshire, August was pretty cool and wet and I recall Scotland recording some abnormally cool temperatures. It gets glorified a little because from mid June to mid July the south east did get a great 25C period but here In Yorkshire the frontal boundary basically just sat north of us so it was a cloudy, humid month and north of us completely forgettable. Essentially a summer of 2 halves but with the first half at maybe 6/10 only nationally.

So basically very poor summers generally with perhaps only summer 2009 trying (and failing) to produce something consistently warm.

[CryoraptorA303]

16 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

for those of us here back then, it sticks in the memory like 09-10-13 does for summer. 

I'm sure you mean winter?

17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

But yeah, 07 and 12 were basically a dream for those of us who dislike summer and we're truly horrific for the majority on here. Akin to winter 2014.

Summer 2008 was horrifically dull and generally wet and cool. Summer 2011 while dry ish was the coolest in about 25 years and basically devoid of heat after the opening days of June.

Summer 2009 is remembered by those who only look at statistics as being okay but in actuality it was what we can call a plume fail summer. Basically in June and August it tended to be humid but outside the south east it was barely memorable as the heat would always plume to our east. 

Summer 2010 is the one people forget most and glorify but in reality June was about as average nationally as you can get and from about the 10th July, summer was basically done north of Yorkshire, August was pretty cool and wet and I recall Scotland recording some abnormally cool temperatures. It gets glorified a little because from mid June to mid July the south east did get a great 25C period but here In Yorkshire the frontal boundary basically just sat north of us so it was a cloudy, humid month and north of us completely forgettable. Essentially a summer of 2 halves but with the first half at maybe 6/10 only nationally.

So basically very poor summers generally with perhaps only summer 2009 trying (and failing) to produce something consistently warm.

Interesting. Being in the south east this is quite different from my recollections. It's quite incredible how much variation we have in regional weather for what is on global terms a small country. There will be countries significantly larger than us that see less variation. We appear to be in the perfect combination of being right on the border between the midlatitudes and high latitudes and also having east/west divided geography, leading to the relatively wild differences in local weather at any given time. We have evolved just at the right time for Britain (and western Europe in general) to sit at the latitude it does and it will only remain on this latitude and see the kind of climate it does for another 10 million years or so before it moves out of this midlatitude/high latitude boundary that it occupies now.

[raz.org.rain]

There was an article I was reading a while back, I think it was published around 2013 or 2015. The author commented on how cool and wet the previous summers had been and commented that summers were about to get considerably drier and warmer from then onwards... if only they had known how right they were.

They attributed this to what was occurring in the North Atlantic, and theorised that a more pronounced "cold blob" anomaly would come to dominate summer weather patterns, and change how the jet stream behaves. If I remember right, the NW European cooler weather period of the early 2010s was connected to a less pronounced cooling in the North Atlantic. Coincidentally, the poor high summer of 2023 had the factor of record high SSTs.

Edited January 14 by raz.org.rain

[CryoraptorA303]

17 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

There was an article I was reading a while back, I think it was published around 2013 or 2015. The author commented on how cool and wet the previous summers had been and commented that summers were about to get considerably drier and warmer from then onwards... if only they had known how right they were.

They attributed this to what was occurring in the North Atlantic, and theorised that a more pronounced "cold blob" anomaly would come to dominate summer weather patterns, and change how the jet stream behaves. If I remember right, the NW European cooler weather period of the early 2010s was connected to a less pronounced cooling in the North Atlantic. Coincidentally, the poor high summer of 2023 had the factor of record high SSTs.

Normally it takes us a few years to see the effects of a strong El Nino on global temps. The 1997-98 El Nino took until 2003 to start being reflected in Europe. 2009/10 took until 2013 and onwards. 2015/16 took until 2018. The initial rise in global temps skyrockets SSTs and temporarily induces intense cyclogenesis over western Europe, and then it takes at least a season to see the effect of higher global temps after the north Atlantic has cooled. Weak or moderate Ninos seem to be reflected within the next year or two, i.e. 1995 and 2003. Us being under a near-super Nino would appear to suggest it'll take us a few years to see it and the next really hot and/or dry summers will be from around 2026 onwards but we'll see. The seasonals already seem to be spitting out consistent HP over Europe over spring and a very weak jet stream, but this could simply result in the typical dry Nino spring without translating to summer.

[summer blizzard]

45 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

There was an article I was reading a while back, I think it was published around 2013 or 2015. The author commented on how cool and wet the previous summers had been and commented that summers were about to get considerably drier and warmer from then onwards... if only they had known how right they were.

They attributed this to what was occurring in the North Atlantic, and theorised that a more pronounced "cold blob" anomaly would come to dominate summer weather patterns, and change how the jet stream behaves. If I remember right, the NW European cooler weather period of the early 2010s was connected to a less pronounced cooling in the North Atlantic. Coincidentally, the poor high summer of 2023 had the factor of record high SSTs.

I recall watching a Met Office Video where they basically showed that the reason for our summers was a cyclical decadal -AO cycle similar to the 1960's. 

While I'm not certain if it's linked, there was also a change in the West African Monsoon cycle to wet from 09 onwards, that's a cycle that lasts about 20 years and tends to wet the Sahel. 

21 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Normally it takes us a few years to see the effects of a strong El Nino on global temps. The 1997-98 El Nino took until 2003 to start being reflected in Europe. 2009/10 took until 2013 and onwards. 2015/16 took until 2018. The initial rise in global temps skyrockets SSTs and temporarily induces intense cyclogenesis over western Europe, and then it takes at least a season to see the effect of higher global temps after the north Atlantic has cooled. Weak or moderate Ninos seem to be reflected within the next year or two, i.e. 1995 and 2003. Us being under a near-super Nino would appear to suggest it'll take us a few years to see it and the next really hot and/or dry summers will be from around 2026 onwards but we'll see. The seasonals already seem to be spitting out consistent HP over Europe over spring and a very weak jet stream, but this could simply result in the typical dry Nino spring without translating to summer.

Don't really agree with the multi year link as opposed to a year. 

2003 and 2018 are much better explained by their own weaker events and moderate to strong NIno's simply not being conducive to a warm summer pattern here normally. 

[CryoraptorA303]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Don't really agree with the multi year link as opposed to a year. 

2003 and 2018 are much better explained by their own weaker events and moderate to strong NIno's simply not being conducive to a warm summer pattern here normally. 

I don't necessarily mean that El Nino directly has anything to do with it, rather the boost in global temps/climate change takes until a couple of years after the Nino has subsided to be seen the next time we have a hot/dry pattern and we get hit by the next record breaking heatwaves. The massive boost climate change has received from this near-super Nino will be truly reflected in western Europe probably in a couple of years, around 2026 time when we have the next hot summer.

Of course, this is the first time we had an El Nino directly after a triple La Nina since 2002, so it's also plausible that we will follow this and this year we'll see the next August 2003 spawn in, and the much higher global temps and further northwards shift of the Hadley cell since then will be reflected. Which route we go down will likely depend on whether we see the relatively fast return to La Nina conditions forecast materialise or if that falls apart and we see a more gradual switch to neutral as is much more typical with post-triple Nina El Ninos.

2015/16 was also the first super Nino to see a return to La Nina within a year since at least 1950. A post-triple Nina super Nino historically speaking really should not be returning to La Nina as quickly as the forecast wants.

[CryoraptorA303]

19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While I'm not certain if it's linked, there was also a change in the West African Monsoon cycle to wet from 09 onwards, that's a cycle that lasts about 20 years and tends to wet the Sahel.

It's possible that it's linked in some way, for instance by affecting how often African high pressure may be pushed into Europe. There are periods like the mentioned 1960s where there is a serious lack of pluming and notable heatwaves (name me a single heatwave from the 1960s), and then periods like the 1940s and 50s where it seems to be perhaps even stronger than today after accounting for climate change.

[raz.org.rain]

8 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I don't necessarily mean that El Nino directly has anything to do with it, rather the boost in global temps/climate change takes until a couple of years after the Nino has subsided to be seen the next time we have a hot/dry pattern and we get hit by the next record breaking heatwaves. The massive boost climate change has received from this near-super Nino will be truly reflected in western Europe probably in a couple of years, around 2026 time when we have the next hot summer.

Of course, this is the first time we had an El Nino directly after a triple La Nina since 2002, so it's also plausible that we will follow this and this year we'll see the next August 2003 spawn in, and the much higher global temps and further northwards shift of the Hadley cell since then will be reflected. Which route we go down will likely depend on whether we see the relatively fast return to La Nina conditions forecast materialise or if that falls apart and we see a more gradual switch to neutral as is much more typical with post-triple Nina El Ninos.

2015/16 was also the first super Nino to see a return to La Nina within a year since at least 1950. A post-triple Nina super Nino historically speaking really should not be returning to La Nina as quickly as the forecast wants.

Given how recent years have panned out, I feel it would be a fair to assume that we'd be seeing periods of well above average temperatures on any given year, particularly around summer time. So far, the suggestion seems to be that summer 2024 will be mixed, but I would expect more than one notable heatwave to hit.

[CryoraptorA303]

6 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Given how recent years have panned out, I feel it would be a fair to assume that we'd be seeing periods of well above average temperatures on any given year, particularly around summer time

Well yes, climate change is real and gets slightly worse each year, so any heatwaves that do materialise are likely to be significantly hot compared to historical analogues, June and September last year being examples.

8 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

So far, the suggestion seems to be that summer 2024 will be mixed, but I would expect more than one notable heatwave to hit.

The suggestion in January is mixed every year Long term models are just defaulting to standard climatology at this point. One month average, one month wet and mild and one month dry and warm. No matter how many outlooks you try to get, it will boil down to that. There is absolutely no use in a long-term forecast six+ months into the future due to the limits of chaos theory and the underlying accuracy of the models. We will have to wait until April at the absolute earliest to see any forecasts that could be even remotely accurate, and we're not going to have accurate forecasts until June 1st.

At this point in the year, it is much more useful to look at historical analogues and cross-reference that with nearer-term seasonal forecasts. And from doing that, I get either some variation of a 2010-like year ahead (that'd include 2016) or a hot summer, with the chances of something like 2012 being very low. The most common long-term feature in historical analogues I see at this point is a heat spike in May, so this is my major prediction for 2024.

[Weather-history]

 

10 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

It's possible that it's linked in some way, for instance by affecting how often African high pressure may be pushed into Europe. There are periods like the mentioned 1960s where there is a serious lack of pluming and notable heatwaves (name me a single heatwave from the 1960s),

July 1st  1961 and 1968

 

 

Edited January 15 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

I've captured on timelapse almost every single day's of weather for my area  since early 2014 and the standout summer for me in that period was 2018, the May to mid July period was a sunshine fest. Certainly the greatest summer since 1995.  So glad to have captured it, visually.

 

 

[CryoraptorA303]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

July 1st  1961 and 1968

While some high temps for the time were reached on July 1st 1961 (33.9°C at various locations, although we'll go with 33.8°C at Heathrow as that's the highest celsius reading), overall this was a temporary heat spike in an otherwise unnotable summer. A bit reminiscent of 2015 actually. Brize Norton was below 20°C for almost two consecutive weeks in August, although right on the August/September border there was another heat spike. Overall if this summer occured today it would be absolutely lambasted - It was quite cool even for the standards of the day aside from the heat spikes.

1968 is very similar. Annoyingly I only have the data for Woodbridge, Suffolk which is rather coastal, but it appears to overall be even milder than 1961 with even fewer heat spikes.

Undoubtely the 1960s were a time of exceptionally low plume activity. Interestingly the 60s were also a time of warm-ish springs, and of course the UK's March records were set in 1965 and 1968. 2007-2012 saw April 2007, May 2008, the dry springs of 2009 and 2010, spring 2011 and March and May 2012. I wonder if there is some kind of connection between the two periods

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

good news..today marks the start of the NH march into summer as the hemisphere has reached its coldest point of the year and will now warm until July 14th 

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

good news..today marks the start of the NH march into summer as the hemisphere has reached its coldest point of the year and will now warm until July 14th 

Winter is the silly season on this site so roll on summer with no cold chasing nonsense

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

While some high temps for the time were reached on July 1st 1961 (33.9°C at various locations, although we'll go with 33.8°C at Heathrow as that's the highest celsius reading), overall this was a temporary heat spike in an otherwise unnotable summer. A bit reminiscent of 2015 actually. Brize Norton was below 20°C for almost two consecutive weeks in August, although right on the August/September border there was another heat spike. Overall if this summer occured today it would be absolutely lambasted - It was quite cool even for the standards of the day aside from the heat spikes.

1968 is very similar. Annoyingly I only have the data for Woodbridge, Suffolk which is rather coastal, but it appears to overall be even milder than 1961 with even fewer heat spikes.

Undoubtely the 1960s were a time of exceptionally low plume activity. Interestingly the 60s were also a time of warm-ish springs, and of course the UK's March records were set in 1965 and 1968. 2007-2012 saw April 2007, May 2008, the dry springs of 2009 and 2010, spring 2011 and March and May 2012. I wonder if there is some kind of connection between the two periods

 

 

Go back even further and the warmest May's typically come from that little age period as well. Does make you wonder whether there are climatic shifts that occur every now and then that predispose the UK to a shift in favourable synoptics for warmth?