General summer chat

[raz.org.rain]

12 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I would personally prefer something a bit more toned down - June 2018, July 2014 and August 2013 would be ideal for me - plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather but nothing crazy hot. Would be great if we could have a repeat of May 2018 and September 2021 for an extended summer as well.

I have some extreme tastes, I'd kill for June '76, July '18 and August '22, or a similar concoction of hot and dry.

[summer blizzard]

I'd basically prefer summer 11 to repeat. That was wonderful for the lack of heat and humidity. 

But If we must have a hot summer then it needs to avoid humidity. June 18, July 13 and I suppose August 22 would be acceptable.

[Schnee]

If we got another 76 type summer, or longer, would our water stocks hold out for one summer season?

[In Absence of True Seasons]

11 hours ago, Sun Chaser said:

Obviously!! Especially with the CFS anything on that model I usually take for fun and not much else. Remember checking CFS in February 2023 and it was showing July to be another heat fest with high pressure to our east the entire month. Turned out well didn't it

July 2023...lol. A month resigned to to the bin. 

I don't see high summer 2024 being as dire as 2023 was. The bar is very low. It's very rare we get an entire 6 week period of low pressure from July to mid August. 

I imagine 2024 will be a mixed bag of conditions. A few heatwaves, some cooler, wetter spells, and so on. 

The prolonged, unchanging nature of the cloudy, cool and wet conditions of summer 2023 (outside of June obviously) was the issue. Which we haven't had like that since 2012. 

[Sun Chaser]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

July 2023...lol. A month resigned to to the bin. 

I don't see high summer 2024 being as dire as 2023 was. The bar is very low. It's very rare we get an entire 6 week period of low pressure from July to mid August. 

I imagine 2024 will be a mixed bag of conditions. A few heatwaves, some cooler, wetter spells, and so on. 

The prolonged, unchanging nature of the cloudy, cool and wet conditions of summer 2023 (outside of June obviously) was the issue. Which we haven't had like that since 2012. 

It's very unlikely that the ENTIRE high summer of early Jul to mid Aug will perfectly line up with a barrage of rain and cloud like it did in 2023. It does happen, you just have to get unlucky - only every so often ie 2023, 2015, 2008. Even 2012 improved significantly in late July. Even if we don't get any proper heat I can imagine at least one of July or August will end up being sunnier and drier than average

[In Absence of True Seasons]

44 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

It's very unlikely that the ENTIRE high summer of early Jul to mid Aug will perfectly line up with a barrage of rain and cloud like it did in 2023. It does happen, you just have to get unlucky - only every so often ie 2023, 2015, 2008. Even 2012 improved significantly in late July. Even if we don't get any proper heat I can imagine at least one of July or August will end up being sunnier and drier than average

Yes, that entire 'high summer' block of 2023 was very unusual. As you say, even in other years with pretty poor summers, there were at least some warm, sunny and dry spells interspersed. 

I don't think 'proper heat' is a necessity tbh, despite it being the focal point of summer discussion for alot of people. The odd heatwave does not make a summer season to me. Sunshine hours are more important than heat IMO. June 2023 had no particularly hot days of note (I think one day was 30c or more in my area, with the rest in mid to high 20s at most), yet that 3 week period was one of the best summer spells I've experienced, primarily due to the sunshine levels and dry, useable weather, during the longest days of the year to boot.

I'd rather have a month of mostly sunny, and mostly dry conditions ranging 18-24c, than a month with 2 or 3 blasts of 30-35c for a few days at a time, surrounded by cloudy and / or wet dross (which is usually the way with those heatwaves).

 

Edited January 10 by In Absence of True Seasons

[lassie23]

as long as it is hot and sunny on the 27th of July 2024 from 1.30 pm to 8 pm, then the rest of the summer can be a shower of sheet.

[reef]

36 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yes, that entire 'high summer' block of 2023 was very unusual. As you say, even in other years with pretty poor summers, there were at least some warm, sunny and dry spells interspersed. 

I don't think 'proper heat' is a necessity tbh, despite it being the focal point of summer discussion for alot of people. The odd heatwave does not make a summer season to me. Sunshine hours are more important than heat IMO. June 2023 had no particularly hot days of note (I think one day was 30c or more in my area, with the rest in mid to high 20s at most), yet that 3 week period was one of the best summer spells I've experienced, primarily due to the sunshine levels and dry, useable weather, during the longest days of the year to boot.

I'd rather have a month of mostly sunny, and mostly dry conditions ranging 18-24c, than a month with 2 or 3 blasts of 30-35c for a few days at a time, surrounded by cloudy and / or wet dross (which is usually the way with those heatwaves).

 

I often wonder how summer 2023 would have been perceived had the 3-4 weeks of dry, sunny and warm weather in June occurred over 7-10 day periods in each of the summer months instead. Stats-wise it wasn't the worst summer but as all of the bad weather was concentrated in high summer, it felt pretty poor.

I imagine it would have been seen as a better summer if it occurred that way - more of a typical UK summer.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

35 minutes ago, reef said:

I often wonder how summer 2023 would have been perceived had the 3-4 weeks of dry, sunny and warm weather in June occurred over 7-10 day periods in each of the summer months instead. Stats-wise it wasn't the worst summer but as all of the bad weather was concentrated in high summer, it felt pretty poor.

I imagine it would have been seen as a better summer if it occurred that way - more of a typical UK summer.

It'd have been perceived as a far better, more average summer in the eyes of most people, I'd imagine. 

By the 3rd week in July on the trot of predominantly dull, drizzly and cool summer conditions, June was a distant memory for many. 

[Metwatch]

13 hours ago, Schnee said:

If we got another 76 type summer, or longer, would our water stocks hold out for one summer season?

It would depend on how the season and months outside of summer would also be. If spring is dry, I think even if summer was on the dry side we should still in theory be fine. If autumn is somehow dry though, then maybe there would start to be some small concerns, but autumns are rarely dry these days, with the only autumns i'd consider being dry this century are 2007 and 2011. Dry autumns are usually followed by poor and wet summers too. 2018 I guess was an anomaly with a dry summer and overall not a very wet autumn either, but then 2019 was much wetter so it usually balances out all the time.

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

as long as it is hot and sunny on the 27th of July 2024 from 1.30 pm to 8 pm, then the rest of the summer can be a shower of sheet.

18th June will likely be another washout this year as it has been the case since 2019, but if there are some thunderstorms then I certainly don't mind!

Edited January 10 by Metwatch

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

as long as it is hot and sunny on the 27th of July 2024 from 1.30 pm to 8 pm, then the rest of the summer can be a shower of sheet.

Why, is that your wedding or something? haha

[raz.org.rain]

There seems to be a lot of hints of a largely dry next few months. Plenty of cold and dry. While many will welcome the cold, the prolonged dry makes me wonder if we could see ideal conditions for a rerun of summer 2022? If I remember right, those hot spells were boosted by an unusually dry first half of the year.

[cheeky_monkey]

16 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

 

But If we must have a hot summer then it needs to avoid humidity. June 18, July 13 and I suppose August 22 would be acceptable.

August 1995

[LetItSnow!]

Personally, I would like a summer that for a change is unexceptional. Hard to ask in current times. No exceptional heatwaves, an annual max of about 31C or 32C, spells of fine weather and unsettled spells so no one moans too much but with the wet spells rather pronounced as to keep myself and gardeners happy, a good few thundery episodes to please the thunder lovers in an '80s style where less about extreme heat but humid and unstable. I'd enjoy a higher incidence of northerly winds for those cool nights. 

[baddie]

Theres one side of me saying next june will be terrible, and another saying next June will be another good one. Maybe first half 2021 then 2012
 

My thoughts for August are better than all of the 2004-21, but not quite as good as August 1995. Maybe first half 2016 then 2019

Edited January 10 by baddie

[B87]

My ideal summer would be a repeat of 2022. 

[WYorksWeather]

On 08/01/2024 at 22:37, East Lancs Rain said:

To me, it would make more sense to do it from 00:00 to 00:00. Otherwise you get misleading statistics like in the examples you gave.

The reason for the 9am to 9am temperature recording is so that modern digital recording can be comparable to old manual records. Always a compromise between what is the best definition and maintaining consistent standards of measurement over time.

[raz.org.rain]

40 minutes ago, B87 said:

My ideal summer would be a repeat of 2022. 

Here's hoping. If we get a colder end to winter I reckon it'll result in a much warmer summer too.

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

Personally, I would like a summer that for a change is unexceptional. Hard to ask in current times. No exceptional heatwaves, an annual max of about 31C or 32C, spells of fine weather and unsettled spells so no one moans too much but with the wet spells rather pronounced as to keep myself and gardeners happy, a good few thundery episodes to please the thunder lovers in an '80s style where less about extreme heat but humid and unstable. I'd enjoy a higher incidence of northerly winds for those cool nights. 

I think unexceptional these days implies an annual max a bit higher than 32C. Probably more like this year or a little higher on the annual max, with isolated 33-35C but plenty of areas only seeing the odd day into the 30s. Even a hint of a southerly easily seems to deliver temperatures more in the 33-35C rather than 30-32C range. In order to get a max below 32C these days, you'd have to have a summer with almost a complete absence of any southerly winds, except possibly in the first half of June.

Of course if you meant historically unexceptional then 31C or 32C falls in that category, but I think in terms of the modern perspective, most people would consider that quite poor nowadays. This is a recent thing, there were quite a lot of such years in the 90s and 00s, but they've become a rarity in the 2010s and now 2020s. I wouldn't mind it providing there were plenty of days with a feels like temperature in the mid 20s and reasonably dry, but I think you'd get a lot of complaints!

Just goes to show how the definition of 'unexceptional' has changed. Around 50% of years since 1900 have achieved 32C. But almost half of all years this century have seen 34C, and looking at the last 10 years, half of all years achieved at least 36C. I feel (or at least hope!) that is a bit of an aberration, but even being conservative we can probably say that the annual max we'd expect 50% of years to achieve is now 35C.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

let's have a good Wimbledon! those traditional childhood sunny, hot ones, 1st to 14th July this year, but a very westerly time of year

[East Lancs Rain]

On 09/01/2024 at 23:55, summer blizzard said:

I'd basically prefer summer 11 to repeat. That was wonderful for the lack of heat and humidity. 

But If we must have a hot summer then it needs to avoid humidity. June 18, July 13 and I suppose August 22 would be acceptable.

I don’t think Summer 2011 was too bad here. I remember July 2011 seemed to be quite cool but fairly dry and sunny. Remember I went to an outdoor wedding that month and there was a heavy shower during the reception. I remember August 2011 was very cloudy though, not a great month, although I went on holiday to East Anglia for a week during that month and remember lots of dry, sunny weather, but back at home it was very dull and grey. I don’t like humidity either, June 2018, July 2013 and August 2022 would be an awesome summer combo.

For a gentler (but still fairly dry and sunny) summer, June 2015, July 2014 and August 2021 would be nice.

 

What I would really like to see from next summer though is much more thunderstorms. They seem to have almost disappeared here. I can’t remember even hearing a single rumble last summer. I used to get at least 1 or 2 thunderstorms every summer, usually after a warm/hot spell, but these days hot spells go out with a whimper instead of a bang here.

On 09/01/2024 at 23:33, cheese said:

August 2013 wasn't sunny enough imo. It was warm and had some good thunderstorms here though so I wouldn't say no.

Yes I remember quite a lot of cloudy days in that month. Had a nice few days holiday in Skegness for a few days during that month and the weather was warm and very sunny, then had a few days up in the North East of England on the coast and I remember it was very cool and cloudy. The weather is almost always better when I go down south upon summer, oooooop north it’s just too cool and cloudy! A good example of that was coming home from Paignton in August 2017. It was very warm and very sunny over the bank holiday weekend with highs of around 23/24°C in the English riveria (and of anything felt warmer than that) but the next day came home to about 14°C and cloud. Felt like coming home after being abroad.

 

But August often is a cloudy month, at least in this part of the world and is often quite poor, often the poorest month of the summer, at least sunshine and rainfall wise. It isn’t usually a terrible washout month but it isn’t often very good either.

 

There have been very few good Augusts in recent years, at least here anyway. Here's how I’d rate recent Augusts.

 

2008 - Poor, Very cloudy

2009 - Ok 

2010 - Poor, cloudy 

2011 - Poor, very cloudy

2012 - Poor

2013 - Ok, cloudy at times

2014 - Poor

2015 - Mediocre 

2016 - Very up and down, remember some very cool and wet days and some very warm and sunny days

2017 - Poor, very cool and wet

2018 - Poor, felt very cool after the hot July and was also very cloudy

2019 - Poor, first week was warm, cloudy, unsettled and thundery then cool and unsettled for the middle of the month before turning very hot and very sunny during the last week

2020 - Rather poor outside of the heatwave, very cool at the end

2021 - Mediocre, very cloudy at times

2022 - Good

2023 - Mediocre

 

So only one August I’d actually class as good out of the last 16 Augusts. The have either been OK, mediocre or poor. The thing that tends to let August down the most is the dullness. I think this is because August tends to have a lot of SW’s which usually bring very dull, gloomy, overcast, sometimes drizzly conditions, with cool days around 17-19°C, but very mild nights around 13-16°C, and often quite high humidity. Not great summer conditions. Would much prefer a sunny high pressure with average or slightly above average days and cool nights. That tends to happen more in early summer though. Early summer and late spring is usually the sunniest time of the year here, due to the Atlantic being quieter and  when the wind is usually much more easterly. July and August are much more westerly and are warmer but also duller and wetter here.
 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

My ideal summer would be something like June 2023, July 2018 and August 2016, but with some thunderstorms thrown in.

All were pleasant summer months with many warm or hot sunny days without feeling overly humid.

[Macc2023]

I know we are months away but is there any early signs on what Summer 2024 could be like?

[In Absence of True Seasons]

7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

My ideal summer would be something like June 2023, July 2018 and August 2016, but with some thunderstorms thrown in.

All were pleasant summer months with many warm or hot sunny days without feeling overly humid.

June 2023, July 2018 and August 2022 is ideal in terms of how those months played out in my area. 

Book-ended by May 2020 and September 2023 for good measure 

[cheese]

9 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I don’t think Summer 2011 was too bad here. I remember July 2011 seemed to be quite cool but fairly dry and sunny. Remember I went to an outdoor wedding that month and there was a heavy shower during the reception. I remember August 2011 was very cloudy though, not a great month, although I went on holiday to East Anglia for a week during that month and remember lots of dry, sunny weather, but back at home it was very dull and grey. I don’t like humidity either, June 2018, July 2013 and August 2022 would be an awesome summer combo.

For a gentler (but still fairly dry and sunny) summer, June 2015, July 2014 and August 2021 would be nice.

 

What I would really like to see from next summer though is much more thunderstorms. They seem to have almost disappeared here. I can’t remember even hearing a single rumble last summer. I used to get at least 1 or 2 thunderstorms every summer, usually after a warm/hot spell, but these days hot spells go out with a whimper instead of a bang here.

Yes I remember quite a lot of cloudy days in that month. Had a nice few days holiday in Skegness for a few days during that month and the weather was warm and very sunny, then had a few days up in the North East of England on the coast and I remember it was very cool and cloudy. The weather is almost always better when I go down south upon summer, oooooop north it’s just too cool and cloudy! A good example of that was coming home from Paignton in August 2017. It was very warm and very sunny over the bank holiday weekend with highs of around 23/24°C in the English riveria (and of anything felt warmer than that) but the next day came home to about 14°C and cloud. Felt like coming home after being abroad.

 

But August often is a cloudy month, at least in this part of the world and is often quite poor, often the poorest month of the summer, at least sunshine and rainfall wise. It isn’t usually a terrible washout month but it isn’t often very good either.

 

There have been very few good Augusts in recent years, at least here anyway. Here's how I’d rate recent Augusts.

 

2008 - Poor, Very cloudy

2009 - Ok 

2010 - Poor, cloudy 

2011 - Poor, very cloudy

2012 - Poor

2013 - Ok, cloudy at times

2014 - Poor

2015 - Mediocre 

2016 - Very up and down, remember some very cool and wet days and some very warm and sunny days

2017 - Poor, very cool and wet

2018 - Poor, felt very cool after the hot July and was also very cloudy

2019 - Poor, first week was warm, cloudy, unsettled and thundery then cool and unsettled for the middle of the month before turning very hot and very sunny during the last week

2020 - Rather poor outside of the heatwave, very cool at the end

2021 - Mediocre, very cloudy at times

2022 - Good

2023 - Mediocre

 

So only one August I’d actually class as good out of the last 16 Augusts. The have either been OK, mediocre or poor. The thing that tends to let August down the most is the dullness. I think this is because August tends to have a lot of SW’s which usually bring very dull, gloomy, overcast, sometimes drizzly conditions, with cool days around 17-19°C, but very mild nights around 13-16°C, and often quite high humidity. Not great summer conditions. Would much prefer a sunny high pressure with average or slightly above average days and cool nights. That tends to happen more in early summer though. Early summer and late spring is usually the sunniest time of the year here, due to the Atlantic being quieter and  when the wind is usually much more easterly. July and August are much more westerly and are warmer but also duller and wetter here.
 

 

August is the second sunniest month of the year here in percentage terms, getting around 41% of the total possible sunshine. It’s definitely a better month than June here due to the lack of easterlies - we rarely get North Sea low cloud in August but it’s common in June. 

Edited January 11 by cheese