General summer chat

[Alderc 2.0]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I don't doubt it. 

I think that average is heavily skewed by years like 2018 and 2022 as you say. 

Many of those Julys have been quite poor too based on their cloudiness, not temperatures. Most people don't really care that it's 24c if you can't see the sun whatsoever.

See my post on the previous page. The spread of the months averages is just 4.5C from 23.2C to 27.7C.

[Alderc 2.0]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

Interesting, most of those in the "poor" years are between 2 and 3C higher than I would have expected. 2019 at 25 seems especially high but presumably skewed by those 2 or 3 days of extreme heat.

I suspect southern Hampshire has indeed has mean maxes 2-3C lower than that in the other 6 years, if so it shows how much warmer London is these days. 

13days exceeded 25C in 2019 in July so the average isn’t a surprise? Only 4days failed to reach 22C and of which only 1 didn’t make 20C.

[Summer8906]

11 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

13days exceeded 25C in 2019 in July so the average isn’t a surprise? Only 4days failed to reach 22C and of which only 1 didn’t make 20C.

Ah ok, don't remember there being so many warm days - admittedly I was out of the country for the first half but I was following the weather and it seemed fairly average. Again, I'd guess London was seeing temps higher than most of southern England.

I remember landing on Thurs 18th at Gatwick and it was cool for the time of year (18C) and cloudy and the following day had prolonged rain so was likely cooler than normal. Presumably those two days were amongst the 5 that failed to reach 22C, but the 18th was a little warmer in central London. Nonetheless the Gatwick conditions would be more typical of southern England outside London.

Edited January 7 by Summer8906

[Alderc 2.0]

9 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Ah ok, don't remember there being so many warm days - admittedly I was out of the country for the first half but I was following the weather and it seemed fairly average. Again, I'd guess London was seeing temps higher than most of southern England.

I remember landing on Thurs 18th at Gatwick and it was cool for the time of year (18C) and cloudy and the following day had prolonged rain so was likely cooler than normal. Presumably those two days were amongst the 5 that failed to reach 22C, but the 18th was a little warmer in central London. Nonetheless the Gatwick conditions would be more typical of southern England outside London.

Average here in Bmth was 23.5C, only 1 day failed to make 21C. So it wasn’t a terrible month.

[East Lancs Rain]

2 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Average here in Bmth was 23.5C, only 1 day failed to make 21C. So it wasn’t a terrible month.

Here the average high in July 2019 was around 21C. 4 degrees cooler than London and 2.5C cooler than Bournemouth. Although it was still quite a warm month for here. 

[CryoraptorA303]

Woah, what is this?

Oh well, in that case, what do you all think this year's annual maximum will be and at what station?

I say 39.4°C at Faversham on August 10th.

 

On the topic of underestimating the average temps of "poor" summer months, I believe the overcast, milder periods stick out to us more in summer than the sunnier, warmish periods, even if the mild periods were relatively short. Hence July 2019 being remembered as mild and changeable despite the 38.7°C heat spike, even though it was by any measure quite a warm month overall even outside of the heat spike.

2023 as mentioned had the lowest July max since 2012 and along with the dullness and wet outside of areas that avoided it will likely make the next few Julys seem warmer and sunnier than usual in comparison as they will almost certainly be warmer, sunnier and less wet than 2023 for a long time to come.

Edited January 7 by CryoraptorA303

[raz.org.rain]

12 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Woah, what is this?

Oh well, in that case, what do you all think this year's annual maximum will be and at what station?

I say 39.4°C at Faversham on August 10th.

 

On the topic of underestimating the average temps of "poor" summer months, I believe the overcast, milder periods stick out to us more in summer than the sunnier, warmish periods, even if the mild periods were relatively short. Hence July 2019 being remembered as mild and changeable despite the 38.7°C heat spike, even though it was by any measure quite a warm month overall even outside of the heat spike.

2023 as mentioned had the lowest July max since 2012 and along with the dullness and wet outside of areas that avoided it will likely make the next few Julys seem warmer and sunnier than usual in comparison as they will almost certainly be warmer, sunnier and less wet than 2023 for a long time to come.

Oddly enough my stab in the dark guess at this year's maximum temperature was 38°/39°, late July. Summer 2024 will deliver some serious warmth I think.

[CryoraptorA303]

15 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Below 13C - Cold
13-15C - Very cool

16-18C - Fairly cool, can feel pleasant in the sun

19-20C - Average, pleasant 

21-22C - Fairly warm

23-25C - Very warm

26-28C - Hot

29-31C - Very hot

32C or higher - Extremely hot

For me it's something like:

Below 13°C: Did you just transport us to Stornoway?

13-15°C: Extremely cool

16-18°C: Very cool, pleasant in the sunshine but with a breeze can feel a bit chilly after a period of high temps

19-20°C: Cool, pleasant in the sunshine, very neutral in overcast with a breeze

21-22°C: Average, neutral in overcast conditions, starting to feel warm in the sunshine

23-25°C: Average to warm, starting to feel very warm in the sunshine and often humid in overcast conditions

26-28°C: Very warm, starting to feel hot with high humidity and in blazing sunshine, often gross heat in urban areas too

29-32°C: Hot, feels uncomfortably hot in the sunshine and extremely hot with blazing sunshine and/or high humidity, very gross in urban areas

32-34°C: Very hot, often unbearably hot in heavy sunshine and extremely humid with cloud

34-36°C: Extremely hot, unbearably hot in broad sunshine and extremely stressful in high humidity, often only able to manage a few minutes of exposure at a time

36-38°C: Searingly hot, only a few seconds of direct exposure at a time

38-40°C: Undescribably hot, no direct exposure possible

40°C+: Please stop

[raz.org.rain]

16 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

In summer:

Below 13C - Cold
13-15C - Very cool

16-18C - Fairly cool, can feel pleasant in the sun

19-20C - Average, pleasant 

21-22C - Fairly warm

23-25C - Very warm

26-28C - Hot

29-31C - Very hot

32C or higher - Extremely hot

 

To me it's more like...

Below 13°c: diabolically cold

13°-15: far too cold.

16°-18°: chilly

19°-20°: on the cooler side

21°-22°: a little low for my liking

23°-25°: acceptable warmth

26°-28°: much better, although feeling the humidity at this point 

29°-31°: my optimum range, just suits all my needs in one

32°+: starting to feel the heat and planning around it

35°+: enjoying it but starting to sympathise with those who dislike heat 

40°+: quite the experience, but uncomfortable if you don't have the infrastructure for it

[summer blizzard]

On 05/01/2024 at 23:13, raz.org.rain said:

El Niño winters have a habit of leading onto great summers too for the most part 

Good to see the thread up. 

Just on this point though, it's important to note the difference between flip years and stable years. 

Years with La Nina to El Nino flips appear to produce good summers disproportionately, stable years do not. 

Years which start and end with positive ONI are.. 

1953

1958

1969

1977

1987

1991

1994

2003

2004

2015

2019

Compare this to years which start negative and end positive with ONI. 

1951

1957

1963

1965

1968

1972

1976

1986

2002

2006

2009

2014

2018

2023

You can see here that the rate of 17C+ months is about the same at ~40% of each summers producing at least one 'hot' month however you can also see that the infamous summers of legend are very much in the flip set (76, 06, 18). 

2024 is either in the stable set or the Nino to Nina set and i don't think you need reminding that the later is not often good. 

 

 

[East Lancs Rain]

On 05/01/2024 at 23:20, SollyOlly said:

A "great summer" for me would be cool and sunny...no doubt we'll get bonkers heat and humidity again though, as per usual. That's why I don't begrudge those who chase winter...it's so rare these days.

That would be an awesome combination, especially in the south where it’s warm anyway, but a very rare combination, and very difficult to achieve, especially in our warming climate. Even in a cool, wet and cloudy month, there is usually a one or two really hot days which pushes the temperature up to or close to average - for example July 2020 and 2015. Recent summers have tended to be the opposite - wet and cloudy but warm - 2019 a good example, or dry, sunny and really hot - eg 2018, 2022, or cloudy and wet but with average temperatures. Very difficult to get a summer that is dry and sunny with just average temperatures these days - let alone below average. Any high pressure tends to send the mercury flying. 

 

But it might be possible with a synoptic pattern like April 2021, dominated by high pressure but in a position where it gives us northerlies, north westerlies or north easterlies. Might still be average temps by day but would be colder than average at night. 
 

With a summer like this, London might be:

 

June: 21°/10°

July: 23°/12°

August: 22°/11°

 

Lancashire might be:

 

June: 18°/9°

July: 20°/11°

August: 19°/10°

Both the sunshine/summer lovers and the heat haters would probably be satisfied with a summer like this. Ok, there wouldn’t be much heat for the heat lovers, but there would be a lot of fine, dry, sunny, comfortable weather to enjoy.

 

Just out of interest, does anyone know when our last summer month was that was drier, sunnier but also cooler than average (or had average temperatures). I’m thinking June 2015, and although technically not a summer month, September 2015.

[cheese]

Hoping for a June like 1976, a July like 2018 and an August like 2022. Is that too much to ask for?

Edited January 7 by cheese

[raz.org.rain]

8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Hoping for a June like 1976, a July like 2018 and an August like 2022. Is that too much to ask for?

I'd be happy with: June 2023, July 2022, August 2018, September 2023. The persistence of heat would no doubt cause some problems but it'd be fun to see the legendary hot summers blown straight out of the water and we get a new benchmark trendsetter of a year.

[B87]

6 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Yes it’s 100% correct. Average maxes below for London for each July since 2013. Really quite consistent.

2013 - 26.9C

2014 - 25.6C

2015 - 23.6C

2016 - 23.4C

2017 - 23.4C

2018 - 27.7C

2019 - 25.0C

2020 - 23.2C

2021 - 23.5C

2022 - 27.2C

2023 - 23.1C 

 

 

Where are these from? Heathrow's average July highs for those months are slightly different.

2013: 27.0c

2014: 25.8c

2015: 23.7c

2016: 24.0c

2017: 23.8c

2018: 28.3c

2019: 25.5c

2020: 23.8c 

2021: 24.2c

2022: 27.2c

2023: 22.9c

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, B87 said:

Where are these from? Heathrow's average July highs for those months are slightly different.

2013: 27.0c

2014: 25.8c

2015: 23.7c

2016: 24.0c

2017: 23.8c

2018: 28.3c

2019: 25.5c

2020: 23.8c 

2021: 24.2c

2022: 27.2c

2023: 22.9c

Ah yes, heat-hrow living up to its name once again.

I imagine the above figures are a culmination of all active London stations.

[CryoraptorA303]

15 minutes ago, cheese said:

Hoping for a June like 1976, a July like 2018 and an August like 2022. Is that too much to ask for?

 

4 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'd be happy with: June 2023, July 2022, August 2018, September 2023. The persistence of heat would no doubt cause some problems but it'd be fun to see the legendary hot summers blown straight out of the water and we get a new benchmark trendsetter of a year.

While I instinctively want to scream at these suggestions, part of me almost wants to see something like this happen for the novelty of it. We're (almost) never going to see cold extremes in this country from here on out, as evidenced by winter becoming less and less worth talking about, I mean we're talking about summer in the middle of January for god's sake, so at least increasingly record hot summers are exciting in a sadistic sense.

[B87]

Just now, CryoraptorA303 said:

Ah yes, heat-hrow living up to its name once again.

I imagine the above figures are a culmination of all active London stations.

It's cooler than Kew, infact the only reason it often produces the highest temps in the area now is because the Met Office have closed so many weather stations in inner London.

SJP, Kew, Heathrow, Teddington, Hampton and Chertsey tend to share the warmest day fairly equally amongst themselves.

[B87]

33 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Just out of interest, does anyone know when our last summer month was that was drier, sunnier but also cooler than average (or had average temperatures). I’m thinking June 2015, and although technically not a summer month, September 2015.

It was June 2015 here.

[raz.org.rain]

13 minutes ago, B87 said:

It's cooler than Kew, infact the only reason it often produces the highest temps in the area now is because the Met Office have closed so many weather stations in inner London.

SJP, Kew, Heathrow, Teddington, Hampton and Chertsey tend to share the warmest day fairly equally amongst themselves.

I recall hearing that the London met area has some notable variations in climate, which was surprising for a relatively small area. There's an area that's supposedly in a dip and surrounded by higher ground that sees regular fog (no idea where it was).

[CryoraptorA303]

17 minutes ago, B87 said:

infact the only reason it often produces the highest temps in the area now is because the Met Office have closed so many weather stations in inner London

They've been closing them everywhere. We lost Gravesend back in 2018 and Edenbridge a few years before that, both important stations for Kent. It won't be long until Faversham is gone as well at this rate, and that will be all of our record-holding stations gone.

Greenwich was also an important station for London and was East London's last station. Now both NE and SE London are totally off the map.

I'm originally from the Ilford area and it often felt really grossly hot during heatwaves, so I'm betting a few yearly and heatwave maxima from the area have been missed over the years from the Met Office having no stations. The nearest is High Beach which is away from the urban area in SW Essex and is also at 110m and so is not representative of the area. Writtle is also way too far out.

Aldborough Hatch, quite a large open space in the area which is also adjacent to Dagenham & Barking and Havering, would be the perfect spot for an East London station. You also have other spots in Havering like Dagnam Park. Even Valentine's Park near Ilford town would do for a Kew Gardens-esque station. The Fairlop area, very close to where I'm from, and Hainault Forest County Park, would also be decent spots for a station.

Almost the entirety of south London is also missing stations. I'm sure there's several spots in which stations could be put. During the September 2023 heatwave, on a couple of days south London amateur stations widely recorded 34-35°C. Parts of western Surrey also saw these figures at amateur stations very widely. While these are not expected to hold up to official standards, it is quite plausible that a temperature above the 33.5°C maximum at Faversham in one of these areas may have been seen on the hottest days of the heatwave. Amateur stations in Tonbridge on September 9th were also showing 35°C quite unanimously, so Edenbridge may have also seen it if it was still around. Who knows what Gravesend could've recorded on the hottest couple of days as well.

It definitely seems like the number of stations has declined significantly since 2010. This makes me think it's a funding issue.

17 minutes ago, B87 said:

SJP, Kew, Heathrow, Teddington, Hampton and Chertsey tend to share the warmest day fairly equally amongst themselves.

Chertsey is technically still in Surrey, but it might as well be part of London. Also, you forgot Northolt, which does have a fair few maxima under it's belt

Edited January 7 by CryoraptorA303

[raz.org.rain]

16 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 

While I instinctively want to scream at these suggestions, part of me almost wants to see something like this happen for the novelty of it. We're (almost) never going to see cold extremes in this country from here on out, as evidenced by winter becoming less and less worth talking about, I mean we're talking about summer in the middle of January for god's sake, so at least increasingly record hot summers are exciting in a sadistic sense.

A part of me would enjoy having a summer of continual warmth and dryness, but at the same time it would massively skew the public's perception of how the climate is changing. You can bet the media will ramp it up and say that all summers will be like that from then out, and then you get a July 2023 again and it just feeds the climate change denier's argument.

[Frigid]

Would be nice if we got a cool dry summer for once, with CETs ranging in the 13s for June, 15s in July and 14s in August. Obviously it won't happen as figures like them are as incredibly rare, but it would be interesting to see. For me, I experience daytime summer temps like this.

10-13C - Chilly

14-16C - Cool

17-21C - Pleasant

22-24C - Warm, but comfortable.

25-30C - Uncomfortable

30+C - Unbearable.

Obviously, humidity can come into play. Say 20C 90% humidity < 24C 50% humidity. 19th July 2022 was scorching, but as the humidity was under 20% it didn't feel as bad as the heatwave in August 2020. 

[cheese]

Heatwaves in the UK are usually on the dry side so they’re not as bad as they could be. 19 July 2022 was very dry - humidity levels were around 20% that day for most of the country.

I still occasionally look at the weather data for that day just to marvel at how utterly bonkers it was. Over 25C by 8am, 32C by 10am, 34C by 11am… just nuts. Seeing most of England with 37C-40C temperatures from London to Newcastle and everything in between will probably never be surpassed in terms of craziness for a very long time (if ever). 
 

Saying that, nobody expected 40C to be reached in the UK so soon, so who knows. 

Edited January 7 by cheese

[raz.org.rain]

24 minutes ago, cheese said:

Heatwaves in the UK are usually on the dry side so they’re not as bad as they could be. 19 July 2022 was very dry - humidity levels were around 20% that day for most of the country.

I still occasionally look at the weather data for that day just to marvel at how utterly bonkers it was. Over 25C by 8am, 32C by 10am, 34C by 11am… just nuts. Seeing most of England with 37C-40C temperatures from London to Newcastle and everything in between will probably never be surpassed in terms of craziness for a very long time (if ever). 
 

Saying that, nobody expected 40C to be reached in the UK so soon, so who knows. 

I have noticed that the humidity levels drop at the temperatures rise, very generally speaking. The humidity factor is usually at its worst when we're hovering in the mid to high 20s. There were a few high 20s in my weather app back in summer with a "feels like" in the low 30s. 

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I have noticed that the humidity levels drop at the temperatures rise, very generally speaking. The humidity factor is usually at its worst when we're hovering in the mid to high 20s. There were a few high 20s in my weather app back in summer with a "feels like" in the low 30s. 

Yes the hottest part of the day usually has the lowest humidity levels.