General summer chat

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

To add, the last year to have an annual maximum in August was 2013, and that was just on August 1st, so if this year has its annual max outside of August then that'll be 11 consecutive years without one. In that time we've had two maxes in September! Come on August!

It also appears that this is the longest consecutive stretch since at least 1875. The next longest stretches seem to be less than 10 years.

I'm convinced that we're due a summer where all three months are notably dry and hot. Considering the way summers have been going here and on the near continent, it would seem logical to assume that such a persistent spell can occur some point soon. I can't imagine the chaos it'll cause when it does eventually materialise. Could be this year, could be 2050.

[JoeShmoe]

Get this week out of the way and it gets milder and we are one week closer to spring !

[kold weather]

12 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Aside from 2020, August seems to have taken a backseat on the heatwaves in recent years in favour of July. Reminds me of the 80s a bit. I can't help but think we're due a series of really nasty dry and hot Augusts now. 2022 of course mostly fits this description but it too was mostly the sideshow after July.

Up until last year June seems to have been really quiet as well. It's had the odd hot days here and there and the 2017 heatwave but really nothing as serious as what we've seen in July or even the relatively inactive August recently. It's time will come in the near future I'm sure.

I personally think we are well overdue now a very warm May, taking a look at the CET records and its surprisingly dominated by 1700s and 1800s months, especially when compared to just about every other month.

May 1833 also hugely stands out compared to the rest of the set, but for us to be so far away when 5 months of the 12 month series come from the 00s suggests to me a hot May must be in the offing sooner or later.

[SussexSnowman]

12 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Aside from 2020, August seems to have taken a backseat on the heatwaves in recent years in favour of July. Reminds me of the 80s a bit. I can't help but think we're due a series of really nasty dry and hot Augusts now. 2022 of course mostly fits this description but it too was mostly the sideshow after July.

Up until last year June seems to have been really quiet as well. It's had the odd hot days here and there and the 2017 heatwave but really nothing as serious as what we've seen in July or even the relatively inactive August recently. It's time will come in the near future I'm sure.

Cor August 2022. I got married on the 13th. Weeks leading up to the wedding we were praying for dry weather (as our wedding was outside as my wedding was at a barn) and we got a heatwave! 36oc on the big day and it wasn't the pressure of getting married that caused me to sweat  during the reception we all had to change to shorts and shirts because it was so hot. Further up the road a farm caught fire. That was some nasty heat for sure. Agree though that Augusts are more uneventful these days.

[SunnyG]

3 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Get this week out of the way and it gets milder and we are one week closer to spring !

The beauty of January is that days are getting longer so even if it's cold like now there's at least the comfort of having more light. Can't wait for spring and summer...

[AWD]

Doesn’t feel like the days are getting longer when it’s constantly cloudy, dull & gloomy.  I can count on one had the amount of sunny days or part days I’ve had IMBY.

About another month or so before I personally start to notice the longer days, lighter evenings.  It’s then when my mood lifts and I look forward to spring, summer and all the sunshine, warmth and hopefully convective/storm potential that brings.

[CryoraptorA303]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

I personally think we are well overdue now a very warm May, taking a look at the CET records and its surprisingly dominated by 1700s and 1800s months, especially when compared to just about every other month.

May 1833 also hugely stands out compared to the rest of the set, but for us to be so far away when 5 months of the 12 month series come from the 00s suggests to me a hot May must be in the offing sooner or later.

I agree, we really haven't seen much in May for a long time now. Sure, May 2012 had quite an unusually hot heatwave but it wasn't really record breaking. It only set one daily record. March 2012 is imo the much higher feat of that year with several daily records and a consecutive week above 20°C which is absolutely ridiculous for March. Even the record breaking March "heatwaves" only managed a few days above 20°C at a time.

May has somehow dodged the vast majority of post-climate change heatwaves and it's going to be a very rude awakening when we are finally hit with a big heatwave in May. It'll likely break the existing 32.8°C record by two degrees or more. The same can be said with June as well really, we haven't seen anything even close to the severity of 1976 in June yet. June 2017 and June 2023 are the two closest but honestly, they aren't comparable.

As a side note, before ~1940 records will not be 100% accurate, but generally they won't be that far off. I have no doubt that the 1990s onwards haven't seen the hottest Mays on record or hottest May days.

5 hours ago, SussexSnowman said:

Cor August 2022. I got married on the 13th. Weeks leading up to the wedding we were praying for dry weather (as our wedding was outside as my wedding was at a barn) and we got a heatwave! 36oc on the big day and it wasn't the pressure of getting married that caused me to sweat  during the reception we all had to change to shorts and shirts because it was so hot. Further up the road a farm caught fire. That was some nasty heat for sure. Agree though that Augusts are more uneventful these days.

August 2022 didn't quite reach 36°C, it maxed at 34.9°C at Crawley on the 13th, although this along with having four consecutive days above 34°C is still very impressive, especially in the same summer as the July 2022 heatwave. August 2022 reaching 36°C+ would've been absolutely incredible and would be the first time on record that two separate heatwaves in a single summer saw at least one top 10 hottest day each, assuming August 2022 managed 36.4°C or higher. There was serious talk of this being a possibility at one point. The idea of August having a second 40°C day was also not ruled out. We didn't quite go that far but August definitely continued the show from July, and was unfortunately overshadowed a bit by the extraordinarily high bar July had set.

As this thread seemingly proves, August 2022 is far from forgotten despite July before it. It seems to be significantly less forgotten than September 2023 or August 2019 for instance, both very important, record-setting heatwaves in their own right.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 11/01/2024 at 09:17, In Absence of True Seasons said:

June 2023, July 2018 and August 2022 is ideal in terms of how those months played out in my area. 

Book-ended by May 2020 and September 2023 for good measure 

I would be very happy with that.

Particularly after last July.

[Sun Chaser]

22 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Probably also due to further SE it not being that wet at all, just a bit dull and not that hot. It still did have its moments in June after all, and the August heatwave will be incredibly strong in the memories of those on the south coast.

21 hours ago, kold weather said:

To be fair that heatwave in August 2020 and the extremely sunny May probably ensures 2020 has a positive reputation, even if the rest wasn't anything great.

Its worth remembering that before last year 2020 held I think 3 or 4 out of the top 10 hottest ever days (one at the end of July and the heatwave in August).

Summer of 2023 is basically similar, with one very impressive month of sunshine/dryness and one impressive heatwave for the time of year.

Actual "summer" 2020 was horrendous where I was with the first half of the summer averaging ~18c maxima (early July was particularly poor) while June and Aug both recorded above 100mm. Not to mention all three months recorded less than 150hrs of sunshine. Just that one week in August was pretty exceptional but I think people just remember the extremely sunny spring which happened to coincide with a very memorable period of life anyway so they forget the horrible June and July.

22 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I haven't seen that anywhere at all, the vast majority seem to remember July and early August above anything else. September 2023 already seems to be a totally forgotten heatwave despite its feats and it wouldn't surprise me if it's not even nominated for the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship next season (shameless self-plug ). June 2023 will be remembered for a bit longer but it's likely already relegated to the "throwaway June heatwaves" category.

Obviously not on this forum as we're more aware of the weather so we remember this summer for what it actually was (mainly pretty bad). But I've seen a lot of comments and spoke to a few people who remember this summer as being hot, probably equal in number to the ones who remember it as cold and wet. I suppose it's down to the part of the summer you spent more time in the actual weather!

[raz.org.rain]

3 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

Actual "summer" 2020 was horrendous where I was with the first half of the summer averaging ~18c maxima (early July was particularly poor) while June and Aug both recorded above 100mm. Not to mention all three months recorded less than 150hrs of sunshine. Just that one week in August was pretty exceptional but I think people just remember the extremely sunny spring which happened to coincide with a very memorable period of life anyway so they forget the horrible June and July.

Obviously not on this forum as we're more aware of the weather so we remember this summer for what it actually was (mainly pretty bad). But I've seen a lot of comments and spoke to a few people who remember this summer as being hot, probably equal in number to the ones who remember it as cold and wet. I suppose it's down to the part of the summer you spent more time in the actual weather!

Oh there was plenty of people who were convinced that July was normal summer weather here and elsewhere.

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

Oh there was plenty of people who were convinced that July was normal summer weather here and elsewhere.

I think it's also dependent on how you value the extended warm season months from May to September. If you imagine putting a weighting on them, one person might value all of them equally, or nearly so. But at the opposite extreme, if you value good weather in July and August, you might weight it as something like 1, 2, 5, 5, 1.

If you value high summer, then compared to the last 10 years it was very poor, the last 30 years it was poor, and even going back to the 60s it would be average at best. But if you're a bit more of a summer pragmatist, and take the good weather whenever you get it, then the extended May-September season this year has not been all that bad in most areas of the UK, even in a fairly recent context.

Most of July through to mid-August was pretty dire though, particularly the weekend curse we had for most of it, I'll give you that.

[CryoraptorA303]

28 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I think it's also dependent on how you value the extended warm season months from May to September. If you imagine putting a weighting on them, one person might value all of them equally, or nearly so. But at the opposite extreme, if you value good weather in July and August, you might weight it as something like 1, 2, 5, 5, 1.

If you value high summer, then compared to the last 10 years it was very poor, the last 30 years it was poor, and even going back to the 60s it would be average at best. But if you're a bit more of a summer pragmatist, and take the good weather whenever you get it, then the extended May-September season this year has not been all that bad in most areas of the UK, even in a fairly recent context.

Most of July through to mid-August was pretty dire though, particularly the weekend curse we had for most of it, I'll give you that.

I imagine most warmies would've preferred the May in June, the June spell in July, the September heatwave in August and the October spell in September. And then the July and August in Oct/Nov when it didn't matter anymore. Bear in mind you can add 2-6°C for each heatwave in that list for the adjusted position.

[summer blizzard]

21 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I imagine most warmies would've preferred the May in June, the June spell in July, the September heatwave in August and the October spell in September. And then the July and August in Oct/Nov when it didn't matter anymore. Bear in mind you can add 2-6°C for each heatwave in that list for the adjusted position.

I prefer my summer to be May-July as per 2018 or 2006 so last year was quite good on the heat front albeit the low pressure spell afterwards was much too humid unlike recent summers with a poor back end. 

[East Lancs Rain]

On 11/01/2024 at 21:17, cheese said:

February is the driest month of the year for a large part of England (including my location). There have been other mild and dry Februaries prior to 2023. February 1998 is probably the best example. 

Here it’s April I think, when the Atlantic is much quieter.

On 11/01/2024 at 21:31, B87 said:

Summer 2011 was dire here. Dull, wet and almost always below average temperatures. The spring and autumn that year were much better, though.

August typically is very similar to July, with more humidity and shorter days. August is actually sunnier than July when accounting for the amount of possible sunshine, the sunniest month of the year here.

Interesting. Here, May is actually the sunniest month of the year, both percentage wise and number of hours. It is the sunniest month of the year for most northern and western areas in fact, probably due to the lack of westerlies and more easterlies, which give the best weather to western areas, especially places to the west of high ground. So late spring and early summer is usually better than July and August in the north and west. In the east though, they tend to get a lot of cloud in May and  June due to the easterly wind bringing in a lot of cloud off the North Sea. But eastern areas tend to be better in July and August while western areas are often plagued by cloud and rain from off the Atlantic.

On 11/01/2024 at 20:26, Metwatch said:

5th driest February (driest since 1998) here with 7.6mm and for England & Wales the 12th driest since at least 1766. Always wanted to experience a dry winter month that wasn't cold and Feb 2023 was just that. Up there with one of my favourite snowless or not cold winter months! Sunny one as well, almost 30 hours above the norm.

Tbh I remember very little of last February’s weather. Just felt like a typical February to me. Don’t remember it being particularly mild, dry or bright.

On 11/01/2024 at 23:24, cheese said:

I think that’s probably true for most of eastern and southern England. From May to September, June is the dullest month here in percentage terms, and August is almost sunnier than June in absolute terms despite June having a significant day length advantage. The high frequency of easterlies really ruins it here. From late June onward that’s less of a concern.

The opposite here. May is the sunniest month of the year while August is the dullest month of the summer here.

7 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I agree, we really haven't seen much in May for a long time now. Sure, May 2012 had quite an unusually hot heatwave but it wasn't really record breaking. It only set one daily record. March 2012 is imo the much higher feat of that year with several daily records and a consecutive week above 20°C which is absolutely ridiculous for March. Even the record breaking March "heatwaves" only managed a few days above 20°C at a time.

May has somehow dodged the vast majority of post-climate change heatwaves and it's going to be a very rude awakening when we are finally hit with a big heatwave in May. It'll likely break the existing 32.8°C record by two degrees or more. The same can be said with June as well really, we haven't seen anything even close to the severity of 1976 in June yet. June 2017 and June 2023 are the two closest but honestly, they aren't comparable.

As a side note, before ~1940 records will not be 100% accurate, but generally they won't be that far off. I have no doubt that the 1990s onwards haven't seen the hottest Mays on record or hottest May days.

August 2022 didn't quite reach 36°C, it maxed at 34.9°C at Crawley on the 13th, although this along with having four consecutive days above 34°C is still very impressive, especially in the same summer as the July 2022 heatwave. August 2022 reaching 36°C+ would've been absolutely incredible and would be the first time on record that two separate heatwaves in a single summer saw at least one top 10 hottest day each, assuming August 2022 managed 36.4°C or higher. There was serious talk of this being a possibility at one point. The idea of August having a second 40°C day was also not ruled out. We didn't quite go that far but August definitely continued the show from July, and was unfortunately overshadowed a bit by the extraordinarily high bar July had set.

As this thread seemingly proves, August 2022 is far from forgotten despite July before it. It seems to be significantly less forgotten than September 2023 or August 2019 for instance, both very important, record-setting heatwaves in their own right.

June 2023 was the hottest June on record with a CET of 17.0. June 1976 had a CET of 16.9 (although until recently it used to 17.0 but it got downgraded slightly).

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I prefer my summer to be May-July as per 2018 or 2006 so last year was quite good on the heat front albeit the low pressure spell afterwards was much too humid unlike recent summers with a poor back end. 

I have noticed a couple of others mention that July 2023 was a humid month but I didn’t really notice it. It was mostly just 16-19°C and cloudy here and raining a lot of the time. Not really warm enough to feel particularly humid here really.

[B87]

I believe the sunniest Mays in the UK are on the central south coast and the western isles of Scotland! 

London averages 208 hours of sun in May. Tiree closer to 230 hours. Interestingly, London's 2 sunniest months on record are May 2020 (329 hrs) and May 1989 (310 hrs).

For the period 2014-2023, April is almost as sunny as August (191 vs 199 hrs) here.

Edited January 13 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

15 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

June 2023 was the hottest June on record with a CET of 17.0. June 1976 had a CET of 16.9 (although until recently it used to 17.0 but it got downgraded slightly).

It was but it didn't see temps anywhere near as severe as 1976, nor as persistently. Were the heatwave in the entire calendar month of June it would obviously not be beaten by 2023. That is more of a testament to how changeable and springlike June can actually be, imo, and how rare persistent dry, sun and warm to hot is in June. The last June that was anything like it must've been 2010 and even that had more changeable periods. Since then I can't think of a single June that didn't have significant changeable springlike periods; 2022 is probably the next closest. It's a bit like August 1997; sure it was persistently very warm to hot for a long time and is overall one of the hottest Augusts on record, possibly the second hottest behind 1995, but you wouldn't say it was more severe than August 2003 - August 03 was clearly far more severe.

15 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I have noticed a couple of others mention that July 2023 was a humid month but I didn’t really notice it. It was mostly just 16-19°C and cloudy here and raining a lot of the time. Not really warm enough to feel particularly humid here really.

It was extremely humid. I definitely felt the humidity and it was barely cooler at night than in the daytime, which is why it wasn't overall much cooler than average despite the low daily maxima. July 2023 is more or less what I imagine a summer version of December 2015 is.

1 hour ago, B87 said:

I believe the sunniest Mays in the UK are on the central south coast and the western isles of Scotland! 

London averages 208 hours of sun in May. Tiree closer to 230 hours. Interestingly, London's 2 sunniest months on record are May 2020 (329 hrs) and May 1989 (310 hrs).

For the period 2014-2023, April is almost as sunny as August (191 vs 199 hrs) here.

 

15 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Interesting. Here, May is actually the sunniest month of the year, both percentage wise and number of hours. It is the sunniest month of the year for most northern and western areas in fact, probably due to the lack of westerlies and more easterlies, which give the best weather to western areas, especially places to the west of high ground. So late spring and early summer is usually better than July and August in the north and west. In the east though, they tend to get a lot of cloud in May and  June due to the easterly wind bringing in a lot of cloud off the North Sea. But eastern areas tend to be better in July and August while western areas are often plagued by cloud and rain from off the Atlantic.

All of the driest and sunniest months on record are spring months, as far as my knowledge extends.

15 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Here it’s April I think, when the Atlantic is much quieter.

Here on the south coast-East Anglia border it's July, but there's not much in it and both March and April are almost as dry. Our overall yearly precipitation is much lower than yours so the amplitude between seasons will be lower.

[B87]

6 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

It was but it didn't see temps anywhere near as severe as 1976, nor as persistently. Were the heatwave in the entire calendar month of June it would obviously not be beaten by 2023. That is more of a testament to how changeable and springlike June can actually be, imo, and how rare persistent dry, sun and warm to hot is in June. The last June that was anything like it must've been 2010 and even that had more changeable periods. Since then I can't think of a single June that didn't have significant changeable springlike periods; 2022 is probably the next closest. It's a bit like August 1997; sure it was persistently very warm to hot for a long time and is overall one of the hottest Augusts on record, possibly the second hottest behind 1995, but you wouldn't say it was more severe than August 2003 - August 03 was clearly far more severe.

It was extremely humid. I definitely felt the humidity and it was barely cooler at night than in the daytime, which is why it wasn't overall much cooler than average despite the low daily maxima. July 2023 is more or less what I imagine a summer version of December 2015 is.

 

All of the driest and sunniest months on record are spring months, as far as my knowledge extends.

Here on the south coast-East Anglia border it's July, but there's not much in it and both March and April are almost as dry. Our overall yearly precipitation is much lower than yours so the amplitude between seasons will be lower.

Heathrow's driest month on record is August 1995, followed by June 2018.

The central south coast has more of a Mediterranean rainfall pattern than the SE. With the driest months in summer and wettest winter months 3x the amount of the driest month.

Edited January 13 by B87

[cheese]

On 12/01/2024 at 20:40, CryoraptorA303 said:

I imagine most warmies would've preferred the May in June, the June spell in July, the September heatwave in August and the October spell in September. And then the July and August in Oct/Nov when it didn't matter anymore. Bear in mind you can add 2-6°C for each heatwave in that list for the adjusted position.

I agree with this. I really dislike front-loaded summers and would have preferred June’s weather in July. That September heatwave would have been much hotter if it occurred in August instead.

Edited January 13 by cheese

[raz.org.rain]

It's probably fair to say that the first half of winter has been a huge flop for most people, unless you wanted persistent rain. And that's following on from that god awful high summer and cold spring we had. Is our luck bad enough that 2024 will be the same? I hope not, fingers crossed for some stable and dry conditions and a huge serving of warmth.

[kold weather]

Locally I'd say 2022 went even beyond 2018 in terms of just how parched everything became, and locally we had a few more days of nil rainfall than in 2018. Of course 2018 was more front loaded and probably longer, whilst 2022 extreme period was held within a 40-45 day period from early July through to mid August but was more intense at its peak, obviously!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Locally I'd say 2022 went even beyond 2018 in terms of just how parched everything became, and locally we had a few more days of nil rainfall than in 2018. Of course 2018 was more front loaded and probably longer, whilst 2022 extreme period was held within a 40-45 day period from early July through to mid August but was more intense at its peak, obviously!

Speaking for here they were not comparable. 

2018 was spectacular from May through mid-August. It was dry, it was hot, it was sunny and only in mid-July to mid-August did we see humidity become an issue. It even had spectacular storms here in late May and July. 

2022 here was meh until 2 hot days in July. We then finally got a hot first half to August and warm afterwards until about mid-September. 

In terms of duration we probably only have 2003 that compares to 2018 albeit 06 and 95 had stonking 60 day or so periods that were perhaps better.

Would probably put May-June 18 just behind June-July 06 myself but I was too young to remember much from 95 and 97 (don't think 03 was comparable). 

For me I'd actually say that July-August 22 ranks behind July-August 13.

 

[kold weather]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Speaking for here they were not comparable. 

2018 was spectacular from May through mid-August. It was dry, it was hot, it was sunny and only in mid-July to mid-August did we see humidity become an issue. It even had spectacular storms here in late May and July. 

2022 here was meh until 2 hot days in July. We then finally got a hot first half to August and warm afterwards until about mid-September. 

In terms of duration we probably only have 2003 that compares to 2018 albeit 06 and 95 had stonking 60 day or so periods that were perhaps better.

Would probably put May-June 18 just behind June-July 06 myself but I was too young to remember much from 95 and 97 (don't think 03 was comparable). 

For me I'd actually say that July-August 22 ranks behind July-August 13.

 

2022 nationally I'd agree, 2018 probably was the better summer if your looking at the whole package.

Locally both had long dry spells but 2022 edges 2018 out on that front, we missed out on pretty much every little weak frontal/convective outbreak that happened during the pattern relaxes between the start of July and mid August. I think Odiham went somewhere between 40-45 days without rain and we did to. When it did finally break down we had some local flash flooding as it all just ran off.

As for 2013, I think it was pretty good (July was borderline great to be fair), consistent, but personally made to feel better than it actually was due to 07-12 being so shoddy for summers, especially 2012. 

[ManiaMuse]

When was the last time that we had a solid 3/3 summer months that were pleasantly warm/hot and not too wet? Not necessarily scorchingly hot or none dry, but just consistently summer-like weather?

It seems like we often hit one decent month like June 2023 or August 2022 but get punished for it with rain and cold temperatures in the other months. Last year was such a disappointment after a perfect June.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think at this rate the most similar summer we have to this year coming up will be 2016 in the sense of west QBO and growing la niña as time elapses.     I'm not panicking either as 2016 was one of my favourite weather years, August was lovely of that year.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

On 11/01/2024 at 13:40, East Lancs Rain said:

GavsWeatherVids on YouTube normally does a summer “sneak peak” around this time of year. The CFS V2 model is currently forecasting a mixed summer. June and August look a bit dodgy and quite westerly with the south having the best conditions favoured. July is forecast to be the best month of the summer with the most high pressure. All three summer months are forecast to have above average temperatures but June the most, July and August only slightly above. Precipitation wise July looks to be the driest month, with June and August looking a bit mixed. So perhaps a kind of reverse 2009 summer forecast here with June and August being rather poor but July being the best month of the summer.

 

Looking at the Cansips model next, it is also forecasting a mixed summer. June looks very westerly and unsettled, especially in the north, with a rather weak Azores high. July looks pretty poor with the Azores high nowhere to be seen and plenty of low pressure around. August looks to be the best month with high pressure over the UK, although with unusually lower than average pressure over the Azores. Temperature wise June looks to be the coolest month only being slightly warmer than average, but July and August are forecast to be warmer. Precipitation wise June has a north south split with the north being wetter but the south being drier. July and August are forecast to be quite dry however. So it looks like Cansips is going for a back loaded summer with June being the poorest month and August being the best.

 

Of course, with it all being so far out it’s really just for fun!

Very much like 2016 then.