General summer chat

[Metwatch]

 Earthshine Love that! 

Here's some from last year; first clip from mid May the other two during mid June:

[SummerShower]

Not that I'd necessarily want it, but we haven't had a summer since 1993 that's failed to top 30C.  Could this be the year?  Maybe, maybe not with our warming climate, but with a nino to nina quick flip expected I do worry a bit for summer 24.

[raz.org.rain]

16 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Not that I'd necessarily want it, but we haven't had a summer since 1993 that's failed to top 30C.  Could this be the year?  Maybe, maybe not with our warming climate, but with a nino to nina quick flip expected I do worry a bit for summer 24.

ENSO transition is probably less of a factor than we like to assume it is. @CryoraptorA303 has covered that pretty extensively. Previous El Niño to La Niña transitions have delivered hot and dry summers in the past, and we're all too aware of what the safe bet is these days.

 

Edit: also worth noting that ENSO's effects on Western Europe's climate is somewhat contentious. Theoretically it has a higher likelihood of impact during our winters, El Niño winters are often dry and cold (which clearly hasn't happened this time). As far as I'm aware, there's no good demonstration to suggest it has any meaningful impact during summer.

Edited February 23 by raz.org.rain

[CryoraptorA303]

The only Nino-Nina flip summer that we're seeing any close relation to so far is 1995... The long-terms so far are suggesting a very hot and dry summer with a Scandi high dominated June and Azores high dominated July. This is not to be taken as gospel at this stage but considering what we know 1995 was like, and that we are currently running as a close relative of that year, and this year is by far the closest relative out of every Nino-Nina flip year, it may be onto something...

2016 was not that "bad" at all, and 2010 was part of the 2007-2012 aberration. Even then, 2010 was probably the "best" summer out of the aberration, having a warm June and first half of July and all. 2007 was bound to go the way it did because it'd been ridiculously hot for nearly a whole year by the time the intense cyclones came in June. Without a spring as anomalously warm as 2007 you cannot expect the summer to go the same way. Either way, we have long diverged from the 2006/07 analogue, if we were ever even close to it in the first place. There is nothing to suggest we'll go the same way.

In case of doubt, during spring 2023, 1926 and 1959 kept coming up as close relatives, so the September heatwave and the autumn we got was very predictable. The July was really the only poorly predicted month in the long term, as there were no close relatives with such a mild and wet July at all. It's the only month of the entire year that was even remotely related to 2009. You'd think November would've been closely related, but nope.

Nino-Nina flips are probably the most unreasonably demonised summers on this website. I'd argue first year Nina summers tend to be milder than them and have absolutely no examples of notably hot spells at all. Double Nina summers are the mildest you'll ever see, all of the mildest in recent history that I can think of were double Nina summers, 2021 and 2012 etc.. The only exception to this was 1975, but this was during the strongest La Nina event in the last few hundred years, so it was bound to be anomalous.

People who like hot summers (for whatever reason that I will never understand) will be more inclined to say British summers are terrible and point to every factor imaginable to suggest we'll have a "poor" summer after last year. The months with the highest expectations, that is March, April and July were the wettest and dullest outside of autumn and this will be reinforcing preconceptions. In reality July 2023 was very anomalous and shouldn't expected to recur anytime soon, the default especially in modern times will be significantly warmer and drier than that.

[CryoraptorA303]

 SummerShower I'm not sure we'll ever see a year not achieve 30°C on at least one day again in our lifetimes outside of a massive fluke that would've seen an annual maximum of barely 27°C pre-CC. It's all too easy to reach 30°C these days, it's the new 26-27°C. If 2007, 2008 and 2012, the three mildest summers of this century and part of a climatic aberration, can manage it, then anything else can at this point. These are quite clearly three summers that would not have reached 30°C pre-CC, and there is a very good argument for 2021 not reaching it either, or only just barely scraping 30.0°C.

Edited February 23 by CryoraptorA303

[WYorksWeather]

Worth cross-posting these charts from the model thread. Extraordinary levels of warmth at the moment.

Today's GFS 12z projection for the 10th March:

 

Last year for the 10th March, and 2022 for the 10th March:

And last year, for the 6th April (which is similar to what is showing for the 10th March this year):

Bonus chart - 2022, for the 23rd March (similar to the 10th March this year):

I would strongly favour early warm spells with the general warm profile so far. And as we move towards the summer, though at this stage it's way too early to guarantee that these anomalies will still be present, some ridiculous heat may well be possible.

[damianslaw]

 raz.org.rain Not sure about el nino equals cold winters, other than Feb 83 the super el nino winters of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16, were mild. Indeed Dec 15 super mild. Always thought strong el ninos are bad news for cold winters, this one included.  

 WYorksWeather Ah but the cold over the pole is equally cold, and any spillage south would counter those mild anomalies. 

[WYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ah but the cold over the pole is equally cold, and any spillage south would counter those mild anomalies.

Up to a point, yes. But the aggregated average is still increased. I would agree if the poles were actually colder this year than they were in the last couple of years.

 

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ah but the cold over the pole is equally cold, and any spillage south would counter those mild anomalies. 

Indeed, in fact the cold looks colder this year in places, but the distribution is all wrong for us compared to the previous years.

[summer blizzard]

 raz.org.rain The theory goes that flip years are disproportionately bad because of tendancy but like El Nino flip years (including 76, 06, 18) it doesn't guarantee the outcome. The link is far from clear cut here.

It may be worth splitting flip years by strength. 

Years that made it to weak or neutral cold by years end are 1954, 1964, 1992, 2005, 2016.

Years which made it to moderate are 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2010.

Only applicable if the year started as El Nino and ended south of neutral.

Pace may also play a factor. 

Years which saw a declared La Nina before July were 1954, 1964, 1973, 1988, 2007, 2010.

Years which saw a declared La Nina after July were 1970, 1983, 1995, 2005, 2016.

Would need to check the stats properly but it looks to me like pace may have more impact. The years which develop slower are the warmer summers from memory. 

 

[LetItSnow!]

 CryoraptorA303

Before my ramble I do vote that this be moved to the general summer chat, but I will say:

I think he just meant that the overall default British summer theme of a few hot days interspersed amongst generally mixed, mild weather most of the time hasn't changed that much even though the temperature has climbed. Many summers have had this since 2007, the only difference being that the unsettled spells that would have once brought long spells of changeable summer weather between 15-21C with the hot spells between 27-33C and spikes of 34-36C is now instead: changeable spells between 18-24C with hot spells of 30-36C and spikes of 37C-40C. The change is indeed more noticable in the south, London for example due to its proximity to the continent and heavy urbanisation added onto a warming globe, but if you took away the added heat, the patterns, while perhaps more erratic and prone to extremes, are not a million miles from the normal. It goes to show how little added warmth in the atmosphere it takes to warm uppers by a couple degrees on average.. But I don't think he in any way is trying to deny the changes that have occured, more say that the changes are blending with the natural cycles that exist. For example, many people in the 1990s may have thought that northern European summers were hot and dry as the new norm due to a propensity for these conditions but it was a cycle that coincided with rising global temperatures, probably similar (albeit in the opposite way) to the winters of the late 2000s and early 2010s that still happened but were not as intense as they would have been 30-50 years prior. Talking about the situation at hand is frustrating but remember to be patient and nice with people who are simply sharing their experience. I certainly can recall many a grotty summer period in my lifetime in just the past ten years. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 LetItSnow! 

8 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

the only difference being that the unsettled spells that would have once brought long spells of changeable summer weather between 15-21C with the hot spells between 27-33C and spikes of 34-36C is now instead: changeable spells between 18-24C

That's not what they said though, they specifically said cool and cloudy by day. This simply doesn't match the description of the average summer day in most of England. The previous summer has massively distorted the perception of the last 15 years in the eyes of those who like hot summers. In 2022 and it's aftermath I doubt there was anywhere near the same level of "the past 15 years have been poor" talk.

Edited February 24 by CryoraptorA303

[LetItSnow!]

 CryoraptorA303 Well entirely dependant on what one defines as cool as one persons 20C may feel positively Artic to them but I would argue that there have been spells of cool weather around the 20C mark with quite a lot of rain and wind, July 2023, August 2021, July 2020, June 2019, August 2017, July 2016, large swathes of the summer of 2015, August 2014, June 2013, most of summer 2012 and summer 2011, August 2010 and so forth, from memory. I'm not arguing about cooler/warmer than average, I just mean that the stereotypical British unsettled summer hasn't changed much in itself other than the temperature increase which leads to a propensity to hot spells that would once have been like 25-35C now be 30-40C. It feels (I'm not exactly sure how much) rare to get summer days in London below 21C nowadays, but Midlands north it probably still happens.

[MP-R]

 LetItSnow! Yep spot on really. Largely agree with @Summer8906 too on this matter.

 

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! This is partly it, yes. But also there does (in my perception and experience) seem to have been quite a cluster of summers with cloudy weather and frequent cool daytime temps (relative to normal) in the last few years, in this area, though other parts of England may differ - particularly to the east.

These summers however have featured increasingly extreme heat spikes so that a year is perhaps more likely to make 35C somewhere in the UK than not - not denying that. But there are still many days of 20C and overcast weather in coastal southern Hampshire, and I would guess that there are more than in the 1990s, due to less favourable synoptic setups. Summers seem to be mostly distinctly W-to-SWly of late; this is of course our mean wind direction in any case but I'm sure that past (1990s) summers featured more in the way of anticyclonic weather.

I'm not denying that the 60s and 80s had plenty of seriously cool, and cloudy summers. I'm just arguing that the typical summer in this part of the UK is not especially great at the moment. Only 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022 make the grade, IMO, in the past 15 years while in the 1989-2006 period, 1989-91, 1994-97, 2003, 2005 and 2006 all would. It still seems to me that 1989-2006 was a golden era for summers in central southern England, and I remember the time before that as well as after. And I am in no way denying that June and August 1985 and August 1986 (for example) were dire excuses for "summer" months, nor that the 90s and early 00s had the occasional shocker too (June 1997, June and July 1998, parts of summer 2002 to name a few).

I think what I'm trying to say is that warmth alone does not make a summer to me. There has to be settled weather with sunshine, and consistent moderate warmth (the vast majority of days achieving 21C or more, even if 30 is never reached) is much better than heat spikes mixed with lengthy spells of sub-21C temps.

Edited February 24 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 See my other post. I was moaning about post-2007 summers before 2022, I'm afraid!

[Snowyowl9]

 LetItSnow!

March has certainly broken the all time records upto Iinto THE BEAST FROM THE EAST and yes this looks like the summer chat and its still winter..

I ve been going through all my snow records from 1998 and March still comes out as snowiest month of them all..

And since 2012 march has simply thrashed all other months made them look small, poor ole november is pathetic..april thrashes november for snow..overall aswell.

Edited February 25 by Snowyowl9

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What's summer? I've long forgotten ...

[WYorksWeather]

CFSv2 is still going for a very hot summer at the moment. Of course you know these long range models showed the same last year, so take with a pinch of salt. But 1-2C above the 1991-2020 average (and I checked the monthly, its roughly an even split) would be a very consistently hot summer. Possibly even on the level of a 2018, and probably feeling more impressive as it would have such an even split.

Watch this space I guess...

[raz.org.rain]

8 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

 

CFSv2 is still going for a very hot summer at the moment. Of course you know these long range models showed the same last year, so take with a pinch of salt. But 1-2C above the 1991-2020 average (and I checked the monthly, its roughly an even split) would be a very consistently hot summer. Possibly even on the level of a 2018, and probably feeling more impressive as it would have such an even split.

 

So far the analogues compiled by @CryoraptorA303 suggest the same. It'd be Sod's Law if we get another July 2023 repeat, although in this country we either get one extreme or the other, so could turn out like a July 2022 repeat.

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain Within hot or very hot summer possibilities as well, there are also differences. You can have one very extreme outlier, and two recent norm months, say we had a June and August 1C above 1991-2020 but July was 4C above and just demolished every record, or alternatively every month about 2C above.

There's also the type of heat. Is it consistent moderate heat in the high 20s or low 30s with a few interruptions? Or is it shorter spells of heat with more prolonged cool and unsettled periods, but the heat periods are very extreme?

And then there's also the diurnal split. Is it very humid heat with warm nights but days only a little above average (possibly southerly to south-westerly)? Or is it more dry heat, with very warm or hot temperatures by day (south-easterly to southerly), but near average night-time temperatures?

If we are going to have a hot summer, I'd prefer the June 2023 type of scenario with lots of very warm and/or hot days, but fewer very hot or extremely hot days.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and as we've seen this winter, all the indicators in the world can line up behind a possibility and it still busts. Of course, there is a better track record predicting mild / warm / hot, as that's the default.

 

[Metwatch]

One of the reasons I am not seeing a classic warm dry summer that likely this year is the fact it's been too soon since summer 2022. Usually there is a return period of those classic warm dry summers in the UK to happen every couple of years.

The last 30 years:

1995, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018, 2022.

Doesn't really happen back to back or even 2 years in between in the last few decades, but usually an average of every 4-7 years ish. So if this logic is applied then, next one will probably be 2026-2027. Not to say 2024 won't be a classic, nothing is impossible.

Between 1975 and 1995, overall that period did have summers more often than now having a higher frequency of being drier though, but the climate has changed since then.

 

Edited February 25 by Metwatch

[damianslaw]

 Metwatch Opposite to winter it seems, when mild/very mild now seem to easily occur back to back, average/cold winters occuring intermittely every 3-5 years since late 80s with exception of 08-12 period and 95-97.

90-91, 93-94, 95-96/96-97, 00-01, 05-06, 08-09, 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 17-18, 20-21...

24-25, or 25-26 next? 

[kold weather]

Last summer was also predictable as it broadly evolved in a similar pattern to 1957, the ENSO evolution in particular tracked very nicely. Sure enough June was a corker like 57 then the rest of the summer didn't continue that pattern set in June.

When it comes to la nina transitions, it's not the actual transition that is important but the power in which the pattern shifts. 

@Summer8906 I think there has been a noticeable amount of setups involving  upper troughing to our SW and HP nearby to our east. That always runs the risk of funneling up cloudy humid stuff.

Some summers the hp has been located close by to the UK (18 being best example) others like 21 have had the mean low too close to the south which have made it very wet, and then sometimes a mix which can allow exceptional heat bursts when the low oscillates in the correct way (Aug 20) but sometimes also comes closer for a time.

Only 2018 was that classic riding HP from Azores into Scandinavia, the others have often had the LP to our SW HP to the N/NE combo, often warm, but often cloudy, particularly for coastal areas.

Edited February 26 by kold weather

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 kold weather I think the summer we had last year if you include how post summer behaves was a mixture actually of 1976, 2006, 2009 and to an extent 2018.   I'd say 1994 was nearish too to last year as well.