2024 Tornado Season

[AndrewHamm]

Any updates on the month or so? Wondering about activity in the end of April to mid May. Thanks!

 

[WeatherArc]

18z Gfs smoking some wild stuff tonight  what an utterly ridiculous run

 Looking at ensemble runs its very clear there's decent support for another trough to move in next weekend, GEFS also showing a slight negative tilt to this system (much more favourable for severe weather) However it is important to remember we are still 180-200 hours out from this system, lots can and will change and many important factors such as surface low development and placement, moisture, lapse rates will not start getting resolved until we enter 80 hours out.

  

  

Edited April 8 by WeatherArc

[Cold Winter]

Enhanced risk from the SPC for the next 3 days across southern US. This includes a 10% hatched risk area tomorrow and already a Day 3 enhanced risk that discusses tornadoes as the primary threat.

I haven’t looked at the charts but it looks like the threat moves east a bit each day from TX through LA/MS.

[WeatherArc]

Our active period continues today and tomorrow with an enhanced and moderate risk.

Tonight an elevated tornado threat will develop across eastern Texas, any cell that can develop and track across the warm front has increased likelihood of producing a strong or even violent tornado, significant hail is also possible alongside damaging wind gusts.

For tomorrow, the SPC has upgraded the risk to a moderate as a powerful MCS (with potential to develop into a Derecho) will track across the Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama regions. A rare 45% hatched wind risk for gusts exceeding 75mph as well as a 15% hatched risk for strong QLCS tornadoes that can spinup. 

Looking even further ahead, the spc has issued a day 7 15% for the system we've been watching since Saturday, a negatively tilted trough will eject into the plains with ample moisture, still some uncertainty on whether the ejection will occur during peak heating or not, could be a significant tornado day if all things line up but can swing either way at this range.

 AndrewHamm Early may still has that favourable look on the long range models, you know its pretty significant when people start mentioning 2011 and 2013 as analogues!

 

 

 

[WeatherArc]

Yeah that could be an issue, HRRR now developing a discrete cell ahead of the line for Wednesday.

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[the storm fisherman]

Large mean storm Nr Washington, LA

 

it is going be long day for the residents. of eastern Louisianan.  

[WeatherArc]

A very rare day 6 30% severe has now been issued for portions of Northern Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

Per the SPC "The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area."

Its not often we see such confidence in severe weather this far out, the last day 6 30% in the plains was the May 20th 2019 high risk. Confidence still a little iffy due to differences in timing but both euro, gfs and icon have significant severe weather setups.

 

Edited April 10 by WeatherArc

[Alderc 2.0]

Have to say it’s another meh moderate event, a couple of times recently the moderate risks issued have watered down quite a bit the days have progressed. 

[WeatherArc]

wow 

12z Euro coming in for Monday with a very high-end likely tornado outbreak for Oklahoma and Kansas, the gfs is now the only outlier with a slower trough ejection and i would expect it to cave to the other models soon.

983 mb low!

Some soundings

When you compare to other model runs apart from the GFS there's pretty decent agreement.

Icon

UKMet

Still 132 hours, this may well fall apart but with all this agreement in models alarm bells for a significant severe weather episode in the southern plains are sounding.

 Alderc 2.0 Agreed, 9/10 times outbreaks in the deep south aren't great due to messy storm modes and lapse rates, hopefully we are starting to see a transition to classic tornado alley with its highly visible tornadoes.

Edited April 10 by WeatherArc

[matty40s]

We have had a tornado causing damage to a food area in Sliddel Ln, but the main problem today in Louisiana, Alabama and Florida has been water...

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

When the top 2 analogs for mondays system are April 14th 2012 and May 3rd 1999 i start to get very interested. 

The amplification of the trough seems to be the biggest question at the moment, we'll see where we are at when the CAMS begin to come into range this weekend.

18z GFS is just a classic look for a tornado event in the southern plains, almost a sub 980mb low

 

Also large wedge tornado earlier today in Florida! Not much in the way of damage reports at the mo but will try to see if any on twitter

 

Edited April 11 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

Monday is very interesting with high end potential. Hooked low-levels with enough CAPE allowing significant risks for tornadic activity to occur. The very high buoyancy will help likely with breaking any cap in place and the lower the CAPE is as long as there's still enough for severe thunderstorm, the less likely of a messy setup there it. 

On the ejecting side of a trough with advancing shear and a lobe of shearing into the western parts of Oklahoma and into central Northern Kansas appears to be roughly where this convection should be held. That shearing is by far strong enough for tornadic risks to be there with this but we'll likely have to wait for the HRRR to get a more accurate view as the NAM can be quite poor at times. 

The soundings have a stretched and strong low-level wind field with mostly streamwise vorticity and a classically significant tornadic saturation profile. However, there is some lack of low-level CAPE and that'll likely have to be watched closely as a potential bust mode. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Interestingly the SPC not interested in a day 2 moderate, in fact the enhanced area has actually shrunk slightly. Reed Timmer and all the usual suspects again guilty of over blowing the potential impacts 72-120hrs out saying this was May 3rd 1999 repeat etc…

[WeatherArc]

 Alderc 2.0 agreed, ill admit i overhyped it but ill blame it on boredom and my thoughts that we couldn't get another event to completely underperform 

Hrrr does fire storms but the environment has been severely downgraded from what it was, we could still see upgrades but im not particularly hopeful

 Maybe its due to how active this stretch was last year with the highrisk but pretty much all of the setups so far have been messy with the higher end potential overhyped by models then severely downgraded in the last 24 hours.

Im just hoping May can give us a bit more action

[WeatherArc]

Decided to stay up just to see if the 00z models would show anything.

The first thing that becomes apparent is the HRRR is handling this event incredibly poorly, moisture return is much more extensive than previously thought.

HRRR vs Actual observed sounding, 8 degrees off. 

Heres the dewpoint error from earlier today.

In fact, it seems the NAM is handling this event much better than it usually does.

So looking at the 00z 3k nam we get a storm to fire in central Kansas, close to areas such as Ness city.

Taking a sounding from the inflow region of said storm the Nam has a very potent environment. 

Now compare that to a HRRR sounding from the same area

Both these models have there biases and at the moment they are really showing, i do have a bit more confidence on tomorrow actually doing something though.

Seems like its going to be a day of watching observed soundings and mesoscale data as well as taking the risk of chasing on the off chance you see a Kansas wedge.

Edited April 15 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherArc

Hatched tornado risk. Looks like I'm staying up tonight. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Assuming sufficient moisture advection, I actually reckon the 10% hatched will be realised tonight. Get the impression we may see a significant tornado. We’ve been missing such large instability from the majority of setups this year and I’m seeing some huge 3CAPE values being modelled tonight.

If I had to guess, central parts of Kansas would be my sweet spot, maybe Hays? Though, people in Dodge City will need to be on high alert.

Edited April 15 by Ben Sainsbury

[congerball]

So who’s watching who? I like watching Timmer , Connor and Brandon?…think that’s their names.

I absolutely love it when Timmer starts to lose his s**t “where’s my phone!?” “I ripped my pants!” 

Hoping for some chaotic scenes on the live youtubes tonight

[Eagle Eye]

 Ben Sainsbury

Yeah seems the spot. The only model that convect significantly the NAM 3KM has the best handle on the moisture advection at the moment. Central Jansas has a great environment but a large cap in place, Nebraska would be a more sure fire bet but less off an incredible wind field environment. 

Central Kansas. 

Central southern Nebraska. 

Also a reminder of the Oklahoman environment just in case. That wind field is potentially violent but thankfully there's a surface inversion and storm initiation looks to upscale too quickly once it gets going. 

Edited April 15 by Eagle Eye

[WillinGlossop]

 matty40s March last year we stopped off in Slidell on way to bay Saint Louis and had lunch there in a diner on that road… 

Edited April 15 by WillinGlossop

[Alderc 2.0]

Looks like yet another bust, were any tornado warnings issued at all? 

[Ben Sainsbury]

 Alderc 2.0 Only a handful, a tad surprised to be honest. Wonder if it was anything to do with the moisture quality this time as that was expected to be adequate but not great, I’ll have to have a look.

Edited April 16 by Ben Sainsbury

[Ben Sainsbury]

Obviously, highlighted Dodge City/Hays last night… Managed to get storm initiation but this was the likely environment it was working with.