Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Harsh Climate]

Gfs looking good

The tide has changed, next chase officially started!

[That ECM]

Some excitement.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wow gfs are you sure!

[Ice Day]

  @That ECM

Yep, the GFS is looking great at day 10

But the GEM is not having it at all.

Chaotic NH profile though, so definitely some reasons to be cheerful.

[TSNWK]

Steady on gfs 12z day  

Edited January 27 by TSNWK

[Harsh Climate]

  @That ECM

Only 30 users present in mod thread. The start of that last MAMMOTH chase there was about 70 in at the 240H mark of POTENTIAL 

I think there will be a fair few people still fed up from the last calamity and refusing to vest interest in charts this far out, perhaps rightfully so lol!

The last chase pretty much caught everyone out, for me this one I am just going to enjoy the ride but not take anything as certain until close to T0  that way no disappointments!

Edited January 27 by Harsh Climate

[AO-]

This is one h*** of a Greenland block. Great chart.

[Harsh Climate]

Another thing to mention for me IMBY, no easterly component in a northerly no interest... See how in the last cold spell snow showers aligned perfectly with the wind, pretty much for days on end

[That ECM]

  @Harsh Climate  Yes later in the season, few disappointments, generates less excitement and more scepticism. 
 

But cold will land at some point in the future, is this the next time? We will see.

[Ali1977]

Uurrrr hello imagine if that’s where we end up in 10 days - could end up a beasterly too !! 

[That ECM]

  @Ali1977  that’s the problem, us coldies are very good at imagining. 

[Harsh Climate]

  @That ECM

Yeah I think some cold/blocking early/mid January is quite likely now, but  unfortunately that does not = snow.

Look at this chart for example:

Mostly dry inland untill this feature heads down from the north. You can guarantee if a chart like this came to fruition the mild core in the feature moving south would be much more mild and expansive than shown here . What can go wrong usually does for Uk when snow chances are concerned.

[AO-]

Am I having a deja vu or not? The exact thing happened about two weeks ago.  The risk of a "Greenland block". Too far west. 

[ICE COLD]

Nice run from the gfs 12z it’s a similar re run of the cold spell we just had lol . Let’s hope this one turns out snowier

@AO-  it collapsed exactly as the block did a few weeks ago as well . Let’s hope that’s not what we get . 

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Only 30 users present in mod thread. The start of that last MAMOTH chase there was about 70 in at the 240H mark of (POTENTIAL) in charts. 

I think there will be a fair few people still fed up from the last calamity and refusing to vest interest in charts this far out, perhaps rightfully so lol!

The last chase pretty much caught everyone out, for me this one I am just going to enjoy the ride but not take anything as certain until close to T0  that way no disappointments!

Very much so, I think!  I’m not quite sure why that got so over-hyped (hold up my hand for my part in it), but we were all sucked in, and there’s understandably a reluctance to do that again, particularly as (and this may be IMBY in the south) it will be late season and therefore less likely to deliver even if the synoptics verify.

At the moment, decent runs are becoming more prevalent in the GFS ops and in the ensemble suites for week 2.  The spell has potential, but no more than that.

[damianslaw]

GFS as it often does plays around with heights to the NW at the long range period when it sees such developments, but does show it quite chaotic fashion until they come into the semi-reliable period i.e. 6-9 days.. yesterday's GFS12z produced a sustained block to the NW at the 11 day mark, today's much less so at a shorter timeframe but still 10 days which is outside the reliable. If it has things right expect greater consolidation in about 2-3 days time. It also often can be too progressive, but ultimately shows the path.

The ECM has been suggesting some form of break in the atlantic with heights building to the west and heading NW.

Too early to confirm if this is where we are heading, but the momentum appears to be so, just unclear how long it will take.. 

[Tim Bland]

Bank  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo 168,I think would end up in a similar way..any thoughts?

[That ECM]

  @Lukesluckybunch  possibly but at T168 some notable differences.

[damianslaw]

Haven't been paying much attention to the very near timescales, but an interesting synoptical development on Monday, some form of wave runner feature developing along a cold/mild boundary with frontal activity aligned along 548 dam line. A shallow low feature develops as it moves NE through central Britain. Could produce alot of rain, and with evaporative cooling affects snow to quite modest levels on the northern boundary. 

[Dennis]

the sudden flip to North winds is setup by an canadian warming and a lobe over Scandinavia

 

[Vikos]

  @Harsh Climate

so my prediction seems to be right then

[nick sussex]

That GFS run certainly raises eyebrows !

Certainly some more interesting op runs appearing . 

There is a pattern change upstream so it will take time for the models to get to grips with that .

Thankfully the MJO hasn’t hit the buffers and that’s looking crucial in delivering colder prospects .

[geordiekev]

58 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Bank  

Marry

[geordiekev]

Have to say watching the Northern Hemisphere on the GFS is mesmerising, watching the trop pv just disintegrate & well within the reliable, so the jet will be squeezed South hemispherically which surely must increase our chances.

And if that Arctic High enters the game at t267, surely a further push South....

Edited January 27 by geordiekev