Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[ANYWEATHER]

34 minutes ago, Jacob said:

I doubt that this would verify but here is some snow depth eye candy from the ECM 

More chance of it being 20c than that happening

[Jordan S]

On 25/01/2024 at 21:23, Jordan S said:

Whereas further south over England and Wales and on the whole much drier and calmer, and this looks to be the case for much of next week, but some mostly lighter rain on occasion in places more likely to be in a few areas in the west

It was clearly far wetter over northwestern parts of England and Wales for yesterday than my post alluded to a few days ago,certainly some substantial totals in some places here, it is a drier outlook for these areas though for the rest of the week, though not necessarily entirely dry. 

I think the main changes to note for next week compared with previous outlook is any slightly colder weather in the north with potential wintry showers over Scotland at the end of this week seeming less likely and now not likely to last into early next week going by my previous outlook onwards with milder air moving steadily back across the uk early next week stopping any southward progression also a slight change being higher pressure remains more dominant over central and southern areas so the change to unsettled and colder conditions especially here being delayed for the most part until at least midweek next week or just after but this is a few days away so this isn’t a certainty but more likely, Gfs not entirely “agreeing” with this section of my post obviously.

But from the middle of next week so Wednesday/Thursday time it does look like high pressure will retreat south and low pressure will probably return to most or all with those colder temperatures and the risk of snow for Scotland and high ground of northern England, so overall not a huge change with a delay of a few days.

Likely becoming very windy for some later next week with the the potential for gales and also heavier rain to spread across the country obviously increasingly likely to fall as snow in a few northern areas and rain further south elsewhere spreading down the country, even for southern areas the risk of hill snow increases by next weekend though as lows may take more southerly tracks. Will update nearer the time if needed.
 

During the following week beginning 12th February Atlantic low pressure systems look likely to slow down progress east and southeast with higher pressure more likely than average to build either to our northwest or east/northeast bringing some colder air slowly into the north and east increasing the risk of snow in the form of showers more generally especially over northern areas but not exclusively so and they may fall to low levels in places too, will have to see how things develop nearer the time.

[E17boy]

Thanks for the update Jordan hope this pans out like you are saying possible wintry weather making more of a comeback in the second week of Feb. I must say the models are all over the place at the moment and we don’t know what exactly holds for February. Some have mentioned record warmth, I think it’s just a matter of watching what unfolds although we really need something to change fast now to give us any hope as we go into the final part of this winter.

As I have been saying all season so far

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND GOES ON

[Gowon]

Not a bad start with the ICON; seems like that energy's being forced southwards :

 

[Gowon]

The GFS and the UKMO - the GFS is definitely better:

The GEM heading the right way as well with stronger heights around Greenland:

[Daniel*]

GFS making more of a colder northerly builds on from 06z. Not a silly timeframe either.

Edited January 30 by Daniel*

[Purga]

The cold is progressively further south on each run.

00z                                                                   06z                                                                12z

[MJB]

Promising 

[Ice Day]

I think the day 9 chart is worth a raise of the eyebrow

[February1978]

GFS could get fun/interesting here..... (about time too!)

[MJB]

Shaping up nicely

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 12z  ❄🌨

Is winter coming 

[Ali1977]

Snowy chart that one 

[Ice Day]

The GEM is looking somewhat different to the GFS at day 9 though.

By day 10, both my eyebrows are twitching on the GFS.

 

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

Where is Matt Wolves when you need him 

[MJB]

Lovely chart 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Back from Austria, beautiful week but progressively thaw conditions in resort, plenty of good snow 1570 metres upwards.

I posted 10-14 Feb re cold signal/set up prior to leaving, I think that’s still about the right timescale….albeit Scotland and high levels of Northern England could see something v early next week.  
 

BFTP

[IDO]

Post D8 looks like fluid. Look at D11-12 on 06z versus 12z:

Those wedges come and go run to run (06z - Icelandic wedge).

But the general theme looks interesting for mid-February: more seasonal offerings. At least from GFS, GEM is more in line with the mean. D10:

[Jordan S]

  @E17boy

no problem yes second week of February/ mid month does hold more interest for people who prefer the cold and snowier variety of weather. Also as the Gfs currently shows, there’s still the possibility that my previous post mentioning colder conditions spreading south earlier next week onwards with snow for Scotland and the risk in any precipitation for hills of northern England could in fact take place still, but my most recent post just highlighting it being a bit less likely until mid week onwards next week seeming more plausible for now.

Before any snow chances in the south, there will probably be rain and wind taking place first in the preceding few days regardless, but the pieces look to somewhat fall together for a week or so colder spell more widely afterwards, just GFS probably being too quick in the evolution next week particularly with the blocking to our north as evident in the timescale I’ve mentioned for the change in the previous post which is beyond next week, along with the ensembles not showing a strong Gfs type signal for the same time as it is showing now, beyond that most certainly looking potentially wintry.

[sebastiaan1973]

Four models at 144h. I find it hard to tell which one is the best.

[suxer]

  @MJB could the much touted iberian heights be removed 

[Tim Bland]

Think I need to move! 

[Spah1]

UKMO 168hrs  

Nothing happening atm. Really hoping for some charts to chase especially as Feb week 2 is half term. 

[Tim Bland]

That’s more Like it

[January Snowstorm]

Much improved gfs this evening! Let's hope ECM follows suit later