Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters from T192:

Not quite sure what to make of these this morning, I would imagine the clusters shown hide quite a lot of important variation, given what we’ve seen on recent runs.

The op is in cluster 1 in the earlier timeframe, which heads towards a -NAO, looks a bit wedgy in the extended (31 members).  Cluster 2 in both timeframes has the Scandi block regime, but not really evident from the charts shown, the key feature seems to be an upstream ridge.  

I think once we get the pattern change (assuming we do) we may be looking at chances for transient cold snaps rather than any prolonged cold spell, but that might work out OK for snow for some, still too much uncertainty so more runs needed…

[Kasim Awan]

 blizzard81 The main cold push was deflectd North by the Iberian high.

What materialised was a colder than average week with high pressure to the South deflecting the convective, snowy easterlies away from the UK. It took an exceptional amount of northern blocking and background signalling to produce that due to the Iberian high.

The Iberian high will certainly be another issue in the next chance, leading to a high risk of a west based -NAO or a situation like January where the northern blocking is weakened and the main easterly flow pushed north. This time round the signal for northern blocking is a lot less so a repeat of January is way up there with the most unlikely scenarios at present.

[Kasim Awan]

I am perplexed by the lack of synoptic thinking here.

The cold easterly solution shown is very unlikely. A temporary easterly in Northern areas possible but the rate of cyclogenesis as the Iberian high stalls lows out to our West is very evident.

Model latency will not pick up on this effect until nearer the time.

 

[AO-]

Good Morning, 

The EC at least shows some consistency compared to yesterdays run: sliders with LMG (I don't know the English word ) over Denmark. The question atm is, if this is to verify, how far the Polar air will migrate South and it all depends on the shortwave the GFS deepens a lot over England between day 8-10. EC is less progressive, but comes with a deepening of that shortwave  at 240h. 

The EPS is clear. I would say the cluster with a colder scenario after the 7th has increased in size. But still a long way to go. The amount of cold up north is at least promising. Hopefully it is not the story of this winter all over again. 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

As I said last night ,no blocking in the places what matters  to get cold in the uk ,the ecm has nicely put up what would happen from day 10 to 11, in this mornings charts ,the Atlantic in full control ,sorry coldies but don't get sucked in about that there may be a very cold spell around the corner, because there is not Although ,day 10/11 charts are FI, the reliability of these charts become a little more accurate ,more or less when we have these kind of synoptics. ...

Edited January 31 by ANYWEATHER

[E17boy]

 Kasim Awan

Morning all,

Totally agree Kasim I think the Iberian heights have been a very big issue in the boring patter we have seen recently. I am not saying it’s just the Iberian heights that are to blame for the lack of cold there are other factors as well it’s a big jigsaw, but these heights I feel make up a good part of this. The models have been hinting a change to something fresher than what we have had in the past 2 weeks however there is great uncertainty still. I think with it being the first day of February tomorrow we are all going to be getting desperate for some kind of worthwhile change to rescue what is left of this season. The desperation is more for those who are still waiting to see the first flakes. I just hope we see some kind of trigger to really push these heights away from the south, without this I feel time is going to run out . 
 

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IS ENTERING THE FINAL PHASE THE HUNT GOES ON

[ANYWEATHER]

19 minutes ago, AO- said:

The EC at least shows some consistency compared to yesterdays run: sliders with LMG (I don't know the English word ) over Denmark. The question atm is, if this is to verify, how far the Polar air will migrate South and it all depends on the shortwave the GFS deepens a lot over England between day 8-10. EC is less progressive, but comes with a deepening of that shortwave  at 240h

But that chart would bring mild ,west or southwest winds from the Atlantic ,with the caveats of northern Britain getting anything wintry on the highest of ground....

[AO-]

 ANYWEATHER

Proof of the fact that the shortwave deepens over England, but that the GFS is more progressive with the shortwave. 

This chart is proof of the very thin border between mild and cold air over Denmark: (LMG).

 216h

 

Edut: I wouldn't be surprised if the colder cluster in the EPS has the Polar air further South. Delicate situation.

Edited January 31 by AO-

[Penrith Snow]

Big step back from cold this morning with little in the way of northern blocking in any of the output.

Any chance of cold is dependant on the movement and location of shortwave and wedges which is precarious to say the least.

Our big friend Barty sits around waiting for spring which IMO prevents any meaningful cold in the medium term, the persistence and intensity of the Iberian High is remarkable, I am in SE Spain at the moment and the landscape is bone dry and looks more like late August than late January, the nearby airport has recorded only 4.5mm of rain since mid November and the nationwide drought in Spain is now a major issue.

Until Uncle Barty gets bored and goes back home to North Africa Spain will stay dry and the UK remain snowless, chase the MJO if you like but the anomalous Iberian High is driving Europe's weather.

Andy

[feb1991blizzard]

Everything going tikety boo all according to plan this morning, sig cluster flatlining -8c now, this is all before the real cold hits (with lag from MJO 7-8 transition)

[nick sussex]

We seem to be stuck in the mud . No real progress to getting anything of interest to survive contact with the T168 timeframe .The GFS for so long the output that was more interested is now least interested .

The ECM op not as good as last night and the more interesting part of the output which is admittedly from a low base is marooned at post day 7 .

The UKMO is a little better this morning so a crumb  there.

The Arctic high tends to be a drama queen and the amount of forcing to edge the pattern further south is likely to chop and change but we really do need to see a strong trend now to put more forcing on the pattern .

 

 

Edited January 31 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard it’s a tough crowd feb !

stick with it 

if the first attempt fails because the wedge doesn’t stick then I think the second will make it via Atlantic ridge 

Scotland looks to have every chance of going cold by end next week and staying cold and wintry 

[Paul]

I just wanted to highlight the updates to the reply/quote system we've been making in recent days, as many members obviously come through this thread. Now, clicking the name of the person being replied to in the post, will pop up a preview of their post, so it's easier to follow:

If you have questions or feedback on the system, please don't reply in this thread - there's a dedicated one set up here (including info on how to use the quote option now):

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99817-where-did-the-quote-button-go/?do=getNewComment

 

[nick sussex]

 bluearmy

Not sure we’re a tough crowd. 

But if the first attempt fails then you’re relying on things go right even further out in terms of timeframe .

The UK doesn’t have a good track record there .

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy

GFS aside I pretty much agree.

GEM ,which nobody has mentioned is a beauty.

UKMO and EC are on the road to cold.

 

[That ECM]

 northwestsnow oi, I mentioned gem and added the chart.

[northwestsnow]

 feb1991blizzard

Agreed.

At the end of the day we all have the right to an opinion ,I tend to agree with you  on this occasion ..

6Z moving towards Euro at 132 

 

[Cambrian]

I can see the temptation to look at today’s 0z EPS at day 9 as introducing the risk of a cut-off low setting up in the Atlantic, especially when we compare it with yesterday’s 0z for day 10, the trough is further west, and noticeably deeper.

Same trend that the GEFS and EPS have been picking up on over the last few days with the trough dropping more out of Greenland in the first instance, before it moves east into Europe. But the low is also further south on today’s run, and look at those heights building north through Greenland. Today’s vs yesterday 

 

Moving on to today’s 0z EPS at day 10 - the Atlantic trough obligingly moving steadily east, the low heights merging with the PV trough over western Russia, so the broad west to east transfer is the same, except when comparing with yesterday’s day 11, some good low heights are getting into Iberia and the heights building up into Greenland are again much more impressive. Today’s vs yesterday 

 

There might be a slight delay being incurred by the development of the low over the Atlantic, but its more southerly track into the heart of Europe and the much cleaner sealing off of the pattern with the heights over Greenland serve to very much consolidate the cold pattern thereafter. 

It is once more jam tomorrow, but in this case, it could very well be a lot more jam tomorrow.

Edited January 31 by Cambrian
typo

[feb1991blizzard]

 northwestsnow

If anything the modelling has strengthened, yes i know flatliners can appear without blocking and they tend to be outlier solutions that are noise and get watered down nearer time, so i think we need to actually see a mean FI ridging N'wards chart for this thread to really catch light (there are tentative signs already), this isn't and never was a write off, plus your location's a stonker, the only problem for you is what pub to go to to watch the snow, the star had already gone before my time, Three Crowns or Austerlands Social?

[northwestsnow]

 feb1991blizzard 

Haha , nope old Original every time...

I'm much more hopeful than 48 hours ago..

Time will tell, it always does 

6z v 0z, GFS playing catch up as per...

 

[AO-]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO and EC are on the road to cold

Agree. If you take p05 of GEM, which imo is similar to EC at day 9, you can see what may happen after day 10. 

 

Edited January 31 by AO-

[bluearmy]

 nick sussex the majority need one of your analogies nick!

sometimes the macro is coming irrespective of the micro before hand 

my fear is we can’t advect deep enough cold into a very good pattern - in mid feb that maybe a frustrating scenario for southern half of the U.K. 

developments in the strat are a new element into the mix and you wouldn’t discount a repeat of the January scenario where upwelling split leads to excellent coupled strat trop profile before the upper strat decides to put humpty back together again  routed across the n altantic. 

 

[jules216]

A lot of GEFS develop that trough west of UK and stal IT long enough to throw a small wedge of.Euro high basically eroding All the cold air potentialy available, Once it clears east there is so little cold pooling available that  it even deters me to open a T850hPa graf as it would be quite tragic to see

[Purga]

The future is orange - yuk

Pretty much as mild as toast throughout 6z GFS with the odd cooler blip - if you're lucky!

   

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM the pick of the bunch at 240 hrs all be it open to change at that range the low pressure kept at a southerly track all due to the key to every door Greenland high pressure will it be the long awaited northerly that the Met office has been plugging which seems for ever or just another damp squib.