Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ali1977]

Day 9 GFS Op looking cold and snowy - ECM may be similar as the cold air shifts south

Cold and snow shifting south on the ECM too - day 9 seems to be the day winter could start getting interesting again - GFS better for pushing the cold south sooner though 

Edited February 1 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Day 10 on the ECM and snow looks possible in most places in that unstable air!! 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 on the ECM and snow looks possible in most places in that unstable air!

Improved picture this morning

[That ECM]

This mornings gooduns. At least we have something to keep us interested. 

[Chesil View]

Sub minus 5 uppers and low thicknesses on the ecm day 9/10.

[mountain shadow]

 Chesil View Just bear in mind like the last cold snap, the models are unlikely to pick up short waves in the flow that will bring unwanted mild sectors.

 

[That ECM]

Tbf at T168 ukmo would have chances of going cold from there. Let’s see where we are after 12zs.

[jules216]

To sum up models next week(waiting fór Atlantic low to clear east) I present you this very scientific method. I am pretty convinced what it will have no problem clearing in to cold spell in March.

[joggs]

 Ali1977 Word of caution. We know we're liable to downgrades and most of the time end up dry and cold.

Edited February 1 by joggs

[northwestsnow]

EC looks cold days 9/10 this morning..

Potentially very snowy for some ..

FWIW I wouldn't trust precip charts day 6 onwards ..

We are in the game ...

Edited February 1 by northwestsnow

[Andy Bown]

Snow from next Saturday as shown on GFS would be great timing for the half term break in my area.  Not so much for long standing outdoor work plans for myself though lol. 

[AO-]

A lot of scatter from the 7th onwards. Means that cold air is nearby. If the first attempt fails, probably the second has more succes. Scandinavia again (very) cold. A pattern switch seems om the way. If the Arctic high knows to work its way through to our side of the world, it would be nice. I don't have any problems with a March 2013 reoccurring preceded by late February 2018. That would make up the winter as we had it untill now. 

 

[Harsh Climate]

 joggs

Doesn't look dry in most of the likely cold set-ups mid month though Joggs.

As an early guess I think we are looking at quite a messy picture, rain, sleet and snow with not many places escaping. With such low 500 temperatures, I think snow will come down to very low levels in a showery set-up if we get the dark blues and purples in with air even at just -3/-4 850s...

Trying to keep it as vague as that cos any more detail is just pure guess work lol, I think we are soon to enter a time where snow chances will pop up everywhere with shortwaves and spoilers littered all over the place,  So can work both ways, a likely upcoming short notice snow event could just as easily be scuppered, rather than the more favourable alternative..

[nick sussex]

Finally it looks like the limpet high to the south will be shown the door .

So reasons to be cheerful for coldies .

The models then paint a picture of low pressure close to the UK with some colder conditions trying to head south.

The depth of any cold still uncertain as we don’t have a strong block.

The ECM and GEM show a weak Arctic high to the ne at day 10.  

So an evolution to a ne flow later could occur if we can get enough forcing from that to flatten low pressure and get some more trough disruption se.

Anyway things still evolving so likely more changes .

The GFS is less interested in that Arctic high and its output isn’t as good for that reason .

As we know from experience anytime an Arctic high is on the scene things get complicated ! 

Edited February 1 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

The only thing that's confusing me this morning is I can't see where EC 46 is getting the blocking signal from down the line if anything pressure looks low to our North...

[feb1991blizzard]

 northwestsnow

This is the transition week.

[Dennis]

not without hope

it would be nice to see a Good GH soon 

[Anthony Burden]

 northwestsnow Hi yes but a Greenland high can show it’s self with very short notice and with Met office extended still plugging a dryer cold northerly around mid month onwards the charts could start to show northern blocking.

[northwestsnow]

 Dennis hi dennis

MJO is in 7 now but I think Feb analogues are mixed.

We want phase 8 ?

[ANYWEATHER]

42 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Snow from next Saturday as shown on GFS would be great timing for the half term break in my area.  Not so much for long standing outdoor work plans for myself though lol. 

Well, better get the snow shovel out then, Whoops, It's already out ,from last time gfs predicted snow nearly ten days away....

[LRD]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The only thing that's confusing me this morning is I can't see where EC 46 is getting the blocking signal from down the line if anything pressure looks low to our North...

Cue another bunch of posts having a pop at EC46!

Remember EC46 shows pressure anomalies. Not where high and low pressure will sit. Weak anomalies to our NW could just mean lower pressure than normal - but it'll still be some kind of low pressure. However, I might be imagining this but EC46 signals are usually not so ambiguous. And the clear signal in last night's run was for temp anomalies to be colder than average too from about the 12th - much more worth taking notice of

If it's wrong, the natives will have their pitchforks out demanding the model be struck from existence! Simpsons, comet, observatory...

Edited February 1 by LRD

[Dennis]

 northwestsnow

8 is also seen on yesterdays MJO 

the run 8 has started 

 

[TEITS]

Very pleased with the overall output this morning. The trend is becoming clear i.e heights increasing to our N, Heights decreasing to our S with the infamous Iberian high being replaced by low pressure as the jetstream takes a much more S,ly route. At the same time low pressure over the UK slowly moving E introducing a cold, unstable potentially snowy spell of weather.

Still some uncertainty with regards to the initial push S of the cold air around the 7th. You can clearly see good agreement for Aberdeenshire with the mean at -7C. However moving S tells a different story. 

The Midlands has much more uncertainty for the 7th Feb.

The S coast of England and better agreement the cold N,lys will not reach this far S for this period. However the ensembles do show the colder air arriving on the 11th as the low clears E.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see a shift S from the models for the 6/7/8th Feb. Dare I say maybe even some classic late 1970s charts appearing. Beyond and to me a continued risk of cold, snow, possibly even colder when the beast is unleashed.

[bluearmy]

Nothing obvious to derail the direction of travel at this time although still unsure if we arrive via an A road, motorway or single lane track 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy Scotland looks prime time location..

The rest of us have to sit and wait...