Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Harsh Climate]

Was excited when saw GFS but Ecm and Ukmo saying no to Thursdays snow storm. Few more runs needed in that respect, netherless looks good for beyond 

[Dennis]

lots can be happen 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Hopefully a straight northerly on ecm..168

[Lukesluckybunch]

13 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Was excited when saw GFS but Ecm and Ukmo saying no to Thursdays snow storm. Few more runs needed in that respect, netherless looks good for beyond 

Was it Thursday..I thought it was more Friday into the weekend..anyway ecm struggling here at 168..let's hope for some better last frames!look at the state of greenland..when are all these long range blocking signals going to start appearing!?ecm is really struggling without any decent blocking..the jet is trying it's hardest too push the cold further north..we just about get away with it..but a very average run so far up to day 8

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS 2m temps, we see the waypoints for where the weather for the south could go:

On day 5, the majority keeps mild, with a cluster bringing the cold boundary further south. As this snow potential is a small window before HP takes a grip, then, to maximise the potential, the D5 change is vital. With GEM and EC going with the majority cluster then, we may have to rely on snow from the back edge of the low at D7-8 in the south. A cold building high/ridge to follow, D9+ for a while:

[Lukesluckybunch]

We all know what the ecm..is trying at day 10..but would it make it...seen it fail many times!the run its self not great,we don't really get to see them really cold uppers..Mainly the -6 region..I would love too see that low skirt through at days 7/8 with some decent blocking coming up behind it..but sadly that isn't the trend..at the moment we are relying on a Scandi trough and hoping it lands decent for us.

[Dennis]

big air clash to watch 

[jules216]

I said it before watch the high pressure south western Russia and very little cold pooling available. This is reflected now ať later stages of EC46d with only really Scandinavia below average. It only really benefits Alps and Higher elevation in Europe. How many times we were here in recent winters.

[Lukesluckybunch]

59 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Going back to how this winter panned out so far the best analog is 2015/16. 

Absolutely poor then I'm thinking..as we had that run of very mild winters!

[Dennis]

newest on ssw 10hpa

 

Edited February 3 by Dennis

[SLEETY]

Not trending the right way, but everything is too far out, to be too overly concerned that the next cold spell is currently looking not particularly exciting at the moment. Hopefully things change for the better over the weekend. 

Edited February 3 by SLEETY

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Not trending the right way, but everything is too far out, to be too overly concerned that the next cold spell is currently looking not particularly exciting at the moment. Hopefully things change for the better over the weekend. 

It's all too marginal..wether it's with the 850's or the positioning of the low..but at least it does look like turning a whole lot colder late next week..and probably lasting into the following week!

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS starting to trend GEM ens ish towards end, everything falling into place.

[daz_4]

 jules216 Yep, nothing of interest in the models apart from crazy rogue GFS op runs. The first half of February has a chance to be record warm here in Central Europe. Temps around 10C even at night. 

[Dennis]

 

[Jacob]

I found this 

[Gizzy]

I like the fact the models are showing very little in advance, how many times has this place been ramping with blizzards, minus 20s etc etc only for it all to fall to pieces time and time again, season after season.

According to the gospel ( Met Office ) Feb is going to be cold, snow chances are heightened and even possibilities of very cold - that's good enough for me.

Edited February 3 by Gizzy

[Dennis]

thats the one we look for 

 

[Ali1977]

 daz_4 Id say this mean is interesting, as are many ENS, and a SSW on the horizon again. Lots to play for.  

 

And the UKMO at 168, that looks very good to me!! 

 

Oh, and the ECM at 168 looks good. Lots to work out at the surface but certainly heading cold. 

 

And those crazy op runs are less than a week away! 

Edited February 3 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 Id say this mean is interesting, as are many ENS, and a SSW on the horizon again. Lots to play for.  

Not bad ali..but again we all know where the bulk of the cold would be,looking at that chart!

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And the UKMO at 168, that looks very good to me

I must admit..I really like that chart also!

[daz_4]

 Ali1977 Sorry but I'm struggling to see what's good about this mean in second half of February, especially in current climate. SSW is not a positive for me this late in winter season. Even if it produces, unlike the first one, it will be spring.

[Lukesluckybunch]

The problem is at 168 ecm..there is no real source of cold air..we would have to rely on our own cold pooling..while the Atlantic freezes over!to me it has the low right over the uk..resulting in chilly and wet conditions..as been mentioned many times,we need it further southeast

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[That ECM]

There’s enough beyond T168 to T240 to keep us interested. There’s enough in the later gefs to keep us interested. There’s not enough agreement to be confident proper cold is coming. 

[nick sussex]

Looks like chase no 1 isn’t going to deliver .

Barring the GFS the rest blow up the low and take it too far north .

So we’re now onto chase 2 !

Looks like we’re now looking to the east and ne as a means of salvaging something .

With time running out we’re fast approaching the last chance saloon .