Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Don]

 Met4Cast So, you don't think later February will be up to much either?

[MJB]

Control looking ok 

[CoventryWeather]

 MJB there's still no strong Iberian high, that is a great chart for day 10. Likely to continue with development of an Easterly of some sort with disruption of lows south. Follows what is expected towards mid month. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

19 minutes ago, MJB said:

Control looking ok 

Goes horribly wrong after looking so good!it's really difficult getting in decent cold isn't it!

[MJB]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Goes horribly wrong after looking so good!it's really difficult getting in decent cold isn't it!

Yes indeed Luke, but colder weather is on the way, let's see what happens at mid month, this Winter has been a marathon for sure 

[Froze were the Days]

What would we do without the good ol' GFS for winter entertainment?...particularly the 06z runs, you just know these won't come to fruition.

[Harsh Climate]

 Lukesluckybunch

What went horribly wrong lol? 

The charts aren't much different today than they were yesterday, we are still seeing different possible outcomes come into play.

Nothing will be even close to being resolved until we see where Wed/Thu low goes next week!

I don't get why people are so up and down looking for specifics over 7 days away, take a step back and look at the big picture. The signals are good and we have a possible snow event Thursday, with that snow potentially affecting further south Friday.

Usual doom merchants come out first sniff of less favourable output or 1 bad run with not even a look at it's essembles..

Again steady as she goes.

Edited February 3 by Harsh Climate

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

what went horribly wrong lol? 

The charts aren't much different today than yesterday, we are still seeing different possible outcomes come into play.

Nothing will be even close to being resolved until we see where Wed/Thu low goes next week!

The control looked primed at day 10 for a proper easterly set up..but it failed..that's what I was referring too harsh..

[Kasim Awan]

This is another very finely balanced setup in terms of snow chances. Slight adjustments could put many into significant snowfall risk however the overall trend recently has been a shift North.

[blizzard81]

 Kasim Awan the trend north, if anything, will shift further north now. This is a Scotland affair and probably northern Scotland at that. 

[frosty ground]

 blizzard81 

 

has it?

It’s been bouncing around between north England and souther Scotland for the last few days, 

18z Thursday northern England 0z Friday Scotland 12z Friday central England 18z friday  northern  England 06z blade north England.

no pattern 

Edited February 3 by frosty ground

[josh-weather]

 blizzard81 Said with confidence, but why?

[Harsh Climate]

 blizzard81

Unless you have a crystal ball you do not know that, it could just as easily head south bringing Northern England a pasting! A good 48 hours before this is even close to settled.

[Battleground Snow]

Not sure what's going on with these mjo plots atm, but every model looks like getting into 8 soon apart ECM BC which seems to be constantly modeling it wrong at day 1.

Model uncertainty is very high atm, I'm sitting on the fence on whether or not we get a HLB  at some point between mid Feb to mid march. I really hope the strat doesn't mess things up again too.

 

[Big Gally]

If it comes further north it still doesn’t look particularly cold for snow. Here in Glasgow for thursday is showing anything from 2’C upto 5’ C.

[phil nw.]

Just a brief overview of the coming week or so as i deduce from current outputs.A messy pattern coming next week with lows moving in on a more southerly track for a short period bringing the possibility of a battleground across the UK and the possibility of snowfall on the northern(cold) side

First the present picture and we can see the effects of this mild westerly on much of Europe with the cold pushed way east and north.

 

 

The Iberian high again the bad smell that hangs around but later in the week he does get pushed south as the cold upper trough tries to make headway from the north so we see a battleground across the middle of the UK

ECM mean and last night's fax shows there is still a little wiggle room on the exact progress south on this but it looks like any snowfall is favoured north of the Trent as the front stalls before easing north again.

 

The next low to the south west is modeled to swing ne across Scotland by the end of next week so a slight warm up before we get the colder air returning from lee northerly as the whole low complex moves east.

The day 10 eps mean anomaly heights continue to show the lack of solid Arctic blocking which, apart from the brief early December GH,has been the theme so far this Winter.

Frustrating to see cold air lurking just to our north at times but no forcing from high latitude blocking to bring it further south.We have seen brief incursions of cold at times, especially for Scotland ,mainly from the movement of the jet tracking further south,but because of persistent mobility these are all too brief.This coming week is a good illustration of this.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

Usual doom merchants come out first sniff of less favourable output or 1 bad run with not even a look at it's essembles.

I wouldn’t call anyone doom merchants, The Synoptics on offer are frankly nothing noteworthy as regards cold, in fact nothing out of place for this time of year! Yes someone will get snow next week but it is still winter after all! 

[Rain All Night]

14 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

12z ensemble means, Sat 3rd to Sat 17th (day 15)

Still a strong signal for high pressure to be taking back control after the big low passes through us - high pressure centred slightly to our west, and a trough over eastern Europe. A spell of dry and perhaps fresh-feeling weather to come for mid-February.

12z deterministic runs, Fri 9th (day 7)

A snow event for most of us not looking too likely now. GEM

0z/6z ensemble means, Sat 3rd to Sun 18th (day 15)

It doesn't look like there's any chance of the "big low" sliding underneath anywhere other than perhaps the very far north of Scotland upon its initial arrival now, though there may be further opportunities for some as it passes over us (see the deterministic runs below). After it has moved on, we might see a chilly surface high moving in over us, followed by a more significant rise in pressure in our vicinity in subsequent days. The Atlantic doesn't look too far away from us initially, though ECM and GEM edge the mean heights westwards in their later frames, suggesting chillier scenarios, whereas GFS is reluctant to do this.

0z/6z deterministic runs, Sat 10th (day 7)

There still seems to be some prospect of areas further north getting a cold air flow for a while during the passage of the "big low".

0z/6z ensemble members, Tue 13th (day 10)

At this juncture, I really want to know what's going to happen after the "big low" has departed. Below are all of the ECM, GFS (0z/6z) and GEM ensemble members at day 10. The majority of them show raised heights at middling latitudes, many showing dry conditions for us with the Atlantic on pause, some of these offering chilly but not remarkable surface temperatures. A small number of runs show raised heights to our northeast, whereas I don't see any at all showing raised heights to our northwest.

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

has been a shift North.

But as per the UK, everything shifts South..............or doesn't it suit this situation ( argument lol  )

[northwestsnow]

EC 6Z V 0Z 90h

Colder slightly further south..

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just about too view the ec46 video..streamed 3hours ago apparently..the headline brutal cold for second half February?

[northwestsnow]

MOGREPS LEEDS

[blizzard81]

 josh-weather mainly because the all important Icelandic wedge modelled for the middle of next week is nowhere near as strong as originally modelled. This allows the energy in the atlantic to steer on a more northerly track with next to no resistance. Harsh - This is also in reply to your post. 

[nick sussex]

The ECM 06 hrs control run flattens out the low which is shallower .

The ensembles show a wide variety of solutions at that point. The majority are deeper and further north .

 

 

[frosty ground]

 nick sussex still not settled then