Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ali1977]

 northwestsnow high ground looks primed , uppers are cold enough that’s for sure - just need some moisture - and that massive low looks good for that!!

[Harsh Climate]

 Ali1977

Wow woke up to the big 3 all looking very good!

Gfs and Ukmo have Thursdays low further south, but still more adjustment needed to bring Northern England/Midlands into play.

Ecm is perfect, but at the extreme end of the spectrum so far for having the low further south.

I expect some more adjustments south on GFS and UKMO over next 72 hours, I just hope not too much lol.

[Harsh Climate]

 blizzard81

Have you seen the output, Thursdays low is being dragged further south kicking and screaming .

Heavy snow Thursday still very much on the cards for some!

Never trust output when the position of a low is concerned 120 hours out.

[Battleground Snow]

Thought there would be more of a reaction to that ecm this morning.

That's probably as near as a wtf moment you'll get in modern times, with a close range shift.

120 v last night's 132

240 is also primed.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Thought there would be more of a reaction to that ecm this morning.

That's probably as near as a wtf moment you'll get in modern times, with a close range shift.

Couldn't agree more..ecm was fantastic..especially good for the Midlands..but cold for all,if we play our cards right..we could be looking at widespread snowfall come next weekend! 

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

ec op is almost in the same place as yesterdays 12z which is 50m further south than the 00z run. Still pretty much north of the M62. Haven’t seen any ec runs much south of the M62 for a number of days. 
 
I said a notable correction south w

 

9 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

Understandable, but what the ECM showed just shows that solution still not out the question. What, about 100miles further south from the morning run - big adjustments in a short time frame. Could be a trend or just a weird one off run..

Those in the midlands can thank me for that 00z ec suite

how often does a more definitive statement elicit a subsequent burn which turns that on its head? 

I guess we’ll see over the next couple runs if this is the new southern edge of the envelope or if it’s just a dodgy eps suite. 

[Harsh Climate]

 Battleground Snow

There's a lot of positive output to look at this morning, I think people are just picking out small bits of information rather than blowing their load so early on, with a whole Sunday ahead of us for discussing the weather lol.

As you say ECM is great, more importantly we have all 3 big models singing off the same hymn sheet, GFS Average is insanely good!

Yes furthest reaches of FI but you will struggle to find such a good AVG at that range at any time.

 

 

[Chesil View]

Good to see the joy induced by the ecm 0z amongst our Midlands and northwest contingent. Genuinely hope you get a good dumping

Personally I'd like to see a further southward shift so we can all join in.

England does extend south of the M4 you know.  

[chris55]

ECM stalls the low as the airmass cools. Could be a fair bit of snow out of that! Especially on the hills. 

[IDO]

 bluearmy

I would ignore the EC 0z as it is a clear outlier for 850s for Birmingham north around the time of the snow boundary. Birmingham:

I would say the OP has gone off on one and bin it.

The means still think this is a 3-4 day trough before heights build around the UK and then retrogression W/NW. GEFS D8-16:

 

The D10 EC mean is similar:

Edited February 4 by IDO

[Marting]

ECM ensembles for Liverpool, painting a cool picture. Operational run often at bottom end, not quite on its own

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

The D10 EC mean is similar:

What do you think of the ecm mean..good?

[Chesil View]

 IDO or of course it could be finding the new way forward.

[Battleground Snow]

 IDO

I know you like that chart, but they really are useless in this situation, you can see several members colder than the op for the 8th and 9th.

[sheikhy]

Ecm gives me 25cms of snow 4 or 5 days from now!!yeh right!! go back to sleep my king model!!!!!

[winterof79]

 Mike Poole

"Think we’re going to see some fascinating evolutions in FI over the next few days before the models converge on which one is actually going to happen, but all the signs now are that we have a real chance of nailing a proper cold spell."

[Lukesluckybunch]

Be interesting to see the 6z..Will it follow the ecm with the southerly track..maybe even further south!?

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch

I think the real action starts post-D14, and we must go through the motions in getting the HL blocking. So the UK high is to migrate NW, and then the Pacific ridge and Arctic high are working in creating the potential for cold & hopefully, snow to lower latitudes.

 Battleground Snow

As I said before, it is a statistical outlier that does not preclude other members from also being a statistical outlier. The op is outside the parameters of statistical relevance. 

 Chesil View

Yes, weather forecasting is volatile, so the usual caveats. But at this point in time, statistically speaking it has nominal support and should be treated with caution.

 

[Singularity]

5-6 days lead time is when southward adjustments to the path of a low tend to kick into gear (if they happen at all).

The usual process now begins: wait to see if adjustments hold or continue further across the next few runs.

[winterof79]

 Battleground Snow

Ignore at ones peril

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think the real action starts post-D14,

Eh ? taking this Winter into consideration, the real action starts Thurs/Fri and continues . 

Don't quite understand your comment 

[winterof79]

 IDO "Treated with caution" yes,disregarded as per your original post ..no

[ANYWEATHER]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Think we’re going to see some fascinating evolutions in FI over the next few days

Yes ,that's right, almost always the most interesting synoptics are in the realms of a computers fantasy software, and virtually all of the time ,that's where it stays and never transpires!  Just flicked through to day ten of gfs and ecm and even in that timescale of FI ,the synoptics are far from spectacular and bordering on average for the time of year!

[chris55]

 Ali1977 evaporative cooling could well come into play as well in slack zones. 

[chrisnoy]

For the first stage, there seems to be very marginal uppers even if the low goes more South. There are some warm uppers all over the near continent which the lows could suck over us.... I feel there needs to be much more cold uppers behind the low else we could mostly be in for a slushy mess with temps around the 5 c mark.

People in the North relatively better off.

Maybe the second stage can deliver.