Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[geordiekev]

Certainly an interesting 10 days ahead & lack of moisture, at least, won't be the issue. The sweet spots still to be resolved I'd have thought but I'd not push ECM 12z out of bed

[IDO]

The means have been suggesting a UK high at D10 for a while. The three models at D10:

Variations on a theme...

[SLEETY]

too far out to nail the track of the low.Why are people treating every op run as the final solution,same every time at this range.

Put any money on the track being totally differnt than what is currently being shown

[nick sussex]

The ECM blows the cold air away and then takes what seems like an eternity to clear the limpet low away .

It does develop that wedge to the nw but the bloated low and lack of cold uppers turn a very good winter synoptic as in the Iceland wedge into mutton dressed as lamb .

Looks good but a bit tough and chewy !

The limpet low finally departs and then we see a Scandi high.

The UKMO throws a  curveball into proceedings , it has little support but is only at day 4 so if it is to have any mileage we’ll know very soon .

Overall still a strong signal for some blocking to the east or ne .

So I shouldn’t be too miserable ! But it’s a shame the ECM has followed the GFS in blowing up the low .

 

Edited February 4 by nick sussex

[johncam]

 knocker snow that stays on the ground for more than a few hours and the latest ECM run doesnt deliver unless you are lucky to live up a hill.

[Lukesluckybunch]

16 minutes ago, swfc said:

Do you mean in regard to the low not staying to the south

Too far north and west..just looked mild and wet too my eye..with no real flow with in it

[knocker]

 johncam Well I have no idea on the altitude variations but suffice it to say the snow is along the leading edge of the front so obviously dependant on the position/orientation of it

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

38 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Things are moving along nicely, we are another 24 hours closer today, with Snow on the way for some and cracking eye candy late on on most models regarding the potential for a Greenland high. Seriously when are people ever happy lol. 

I'm afraid it's all hopecasting!  The only really good super dooper winter charts are hanging off the T+384 timeframe. Nothing ,that exciting in the reliable and semi-reliable timeframe unless you like cold rain.....

[winterof79]

Any weather you're on the wind up you get your galoshes ill get me shovel

Unless you're in the wrong thread?

Edited February 4 by winterof79

[Lukesluckybunch]

36 minutes ago, IDO said:

The means have been suggesting a UK high at D10 for a while. The three models at D10:

Ecm is not a UK high though is it...

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Any weather you're on the wind up 

 

I don't know how much faith you put in snow charts, but from my experience they will be doing great if there correct within the 12 hr timeframe

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch

Not precisely, but at D10, as good as! The core of the high is just NW of Scotland. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

 IDO

Its a Scolandic high.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Not precisely, but at D10, as good as! The core of the high is just NW of Scotland. 

Yes pretty good positioning..with a fairly strong push North

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a Scolandic high.

Would rather a griceland high!

[northwestsnow]

At first glance the mean is a downgrade.

Time for a swing back but EC is a kick in the wetsuits.

[IDO]

 feb1991blizzard Yes, I give you that!

 Lukesluckybunch It is a D10 op so I always expect any northern blocking to be overdone. See the mean:

[winterof79]

 feb1991blizzard

Not sure people read the thread or output.

Heights look like shifting quickly from Scandi to Greenland 

[damianslaw]

As fully expected and will be the case until Wednesday, a long 48-72 hrs away... the models will continue to play with the track and shape of the low pressure.. its an exhausting watch when trying to pinpoint how things will develop in such scenarios. I'm fully non- the wiser at this range.

[feb1991blizzard]

 winterof79

Yes, my post was basically saying that its a high between Scotland & Iceland, a uk high would be central pressure around N England / N Midlands.

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks a downgrade at first glance.

[bluearmy]

Fwiw, the control has a bfte post day 12

[AO-]

Worse output of EC tonight. The shortwave is stalling. Not great if you want cold. The EPS for here has downgraded and the mild interlude has extended by three days. It takes too long to turn into cold. 

 

 

Edited February 4 by AO-

[winterof79]

 bluearmy

There's a thing lol

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

what's the ext eps mean like please?

[markw2680]

 sheikhy how can you say ecm will not be correct? It’s days away, there will be plenty more twists. Nothing at this stage is correct for later in the week