Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[bluearmy]

decimated tpv for the most part 

can we get the pieces to land for us ???
 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Warm air from Africa at 228!!

[johncam]

Not seeing anything to suggest widespread cold coming our way and as getting late in season we need 2018 style cold to get any snow to last through the day now even up here. 

[WeatherArc]

Its crazy how we can be in northerlies or easterlies for extended periods of time and struggle to get anything remotely wintery yet just one quick southerly can pump up near record breaking upper air temps.

[Johnp]

Looking very springlike around the 16th, should be very pleasant. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Johnp said:

Looking very springlike around the 16th, should be very pleasant. 

Oh that's when all that blocking too our north is due..don't forget!

[Purga]

A somewhat naff ECM it has to be said

 

Bartlett rules & mild all the way with GFS 18z

Edited February 5 by Purga

[Johnp]

A big problem seems to be, instead of lows moving east and digging southwards, they are all wafting gently polewards and/or westwards. 

What is causing this odd behaviour? Is it too early for stratospheric impacts?

[Sweatyman]

 Lukesluckybunch yes all the imaginary blocking and cold!

[Johnp]

This is a shocker - virtually all of Europe above 0c at 850hpa

[Don]

3 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

All coming together for a cold March, isn’t it.

I doubt it?!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Control looking half decent at 132..but will it continue to slide into europe..that seems to be the problem with this low..looking for an opening around iceland!..it seems to make some progress then move back north..very frustrating!

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[MJB]

 Kasim Awan And will no doubt be at the high end of the ENS 

[andymusic]

 Johnp due to the complicated set up for thursday/friday in the UK with the way the low will be handled by all models - don't bother really looking too much further on yet/all depends what the low will actually do - meto must have more info and are convinced the cold weather is gonna continue in the UK through the rest of Feb and into the beginning of March - also - "Us mid-winter break comes to a crashing end Feb 10-March 20. Same thing for Europe."  Winter will hit back hard - J Bastardi - 5 straight years of warm Feb/Mar in Europe ends end Feb 10 on as coldest last part of winter since 2018 arrives in tandem with US chill down.

[Johnp]

 MJB Hope so - this run could challenge the record CET for Feb. 

[damianslaw]

Ive seen some odd GFS18z output, but this evening's is extra bizarre. Malfunction in the machine, low heights dropping into southern europe, a holding low over the UK, a low far out in the west atlantic going nowhere..  just all seems wrong. 

[andymusic]

 damianslaw GFS 18z for the bin after friday into saturday methinks

[Cheshire Freeze]

 WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February.

The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course.

[damianslaw]

 andymusic Agree. Its output over recent days has been extra wild. 

Edited February 5 by damianslaw

[ICE COLD]

 bluearmy Honestly nick I’m sick to death of chasing this winter now . It doesn’t matter what state the NH in , no matter what it just doesn’t fall are way . Just can’t see it happening now . Even the GEFS have gone the wrong way in FI and the ECM ens hardly look great. So that’s up to the 20th and then we’re obviously fighting an even more up hill struggle with it being so late . Maybe next year

[frosty ground]

 damianslaw

plenty of differences for this week before hand to, something is stoping the low crossing the U.K. that’s seems to be the main driving force for the output.

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course.

Indeed, gives you a horrible sinking feeling! 

[damianslaw]

 frosty ground The UKMO pulls them east, and GFS and ECM draw low heights into southern europe, the traction is there to force them east.. I'm scratching my head at the moment with the evolutions shown, but importantly ECM and UKMO do show a path to heights building over and to our west/nw next week.

I knew today would be one of those strange ones, where it leaves everyone exasperated and puzzled. Its a complex set up and I feel the models are just churning out various scenarios, but I put little faith in any beyond 48 hrs at present. 

Edited February 5 by damianslaw

[WeatherArc]

 Cheshire Freeze Completely agree with you, just finding it crazy (and quite worrying) how difficult it is to get anything cold even when everything seems to go in our favour, and also the fact that a pretty average plume is already attempting to bring +15 uppers into Western Europe.

Hopefully the euros wrong on this one and we can get something at least slightly wintery before the heat of spring and summer kicks in. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

19th-26th should settle a few nerves in here again.

 

I was encouraged by tonight's EC46, but if it's based on the 00z, it's already out of date?

Edited February 5 by Don