Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Marting]

 Gowon  I would say heading  in a fairly consistent way towards a block to the north, this suggested strongly on the meteogram this morning . Turning colder again, although like all models a rapidly changing position (SSW related) so we watch with interest

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM continues with the pressure rise ie Greenland /North west blocking with low pressure to our north east bringing a very cold / cold air flow over the UK.This set up could bring some snow to central and eastern England which the met office extended had added from mid February,although still 9 or 10 days out definitely looking more positive.

[MJB]

Not too bad from GEFS EH?

[StretfordEnd1996]

 Anthony Burden

It certainly does look more interesting in the D9/10 timeframe, with HP pushing to the W/NW towards Greenland, but it doesn't quite get there and by D10 weakens off slightly 

 

It brings in colder uppers - 





If the run continued those heights look as if they'd collapse though. 

 

9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

This set up could bring some snow to central and eastern England

On face value I don't think those charts would - the pattern would need to hold for a time. Looks somewhat dry those charts (on face value). 

We just need to get something of a colder pattern in place first akin to the ECMWF before we start focusing on the details or snowfall potential. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters looking much more promising this morning, T120-T168:

The point of interest in this timeframe is the ridge starting to go up, notable on clusters 1,3,4 (not so much 2) at T168.  It is crucial that this happens west of the UK in the Atlantic.

T192-T240:

Cluster 2 still has this ridge too close to the UK.  Cluster 1 holds promise as regards building a well placed block to the NW, and cluster 3 is excellent - I think the JMA solution would fit well in this one - quite a turnaround seeing this within 10 days.

T264+:

Plenty of interest here, apart from cluster 1 where the block is too far west and the UK is in westerlies.  Clusters 2 and 4 are exactly what we want to see as regards Greenland block placement and trough into Europe.  Cluster 3 is OK, but dealing with the aftermath of the ridge through the UK earlier I suspect.  Cluster 5 brings in the chance of an easterly with heights to the north more generally.  

Back in the game, this morning.

Edited February 9 by Mike Poole

[ANYWEATHER]

17 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,ECM continues with the pressure rise ie Greenland /North west blocking with low pressure to our north east bringing a very cold / cold air flow over the UK.This set up could bring some snow to central and eastern England which the met office extended had added from mid February,although still 9 or 10 days out definitely looking more positive.

The Ecm cannot be trusted.  It's been very poor recently in its output. As regards wintry weather ,cannot see anything ,that would tickle the toes of cold lovers ,other than a short blast of colder conditions on day ten of ecm ,say no more.......

[Lukesluckybunch]

We can't get any model consistency..it's very frustrating,ukmo backtracks once again

10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

cannot be trusted

Absolutely..Even the ecm with the best possible solution,has been watered down!

[bluearmy]

 Lukesluckybunch Shannon is back big time ! 

[Cambrian]

This has been the feature of the winter for me - the recurring Scandinavian trough. It hasn’t delivered wintry weather for all parts of the UK and Ireland equally, far from it, but it alone has been conspicuous in consistently delivering the right kind of air mass to our shores.

It’s been a winter where the modelling of heights into Scandinavia / easterly tease, though not transpiring, has proven to be a frequent prelude to the reassertion of the trough from the PV as it shuffles each time over from Canada to settle for lengthy periods on the Siberian side of the Arctic. 

If we look at the NH profile, we can see that it’s at it again! The signs were there last night on the GEFS, but now indeed, its arrival is being smartly expedited in the 0z ECM models. Yesterday’s 12z mean at 252h versus today’s 0z at 240h. 

 

All hail the arty rabbit looking thing - may your front legs grow long and maintain that southwestward orientation trend. 

Atlantic ridging and western Atlantic trough also a good deal further west, that push of heights into Greenland is outstanding for a day 10 mean, driving amplification for the trough but also serving to push the southwesterly flow well away and opening us up to the north. This is reflected in the mean T850’s too.

 

A big change in the models over just 12 hours.

There’s evidently still plenty of time for a meaningful cold spell. 

Edited February 9 by Cambrian
blasted autofill….

[Jason M]

As per the case for most of the winter its just a case of chasing shadows around at day 15. 

ECM looks very unconvincing to me albeit some of the lesser models look okay deep in FI. Maybe give it a few more days but the fat lady is warming up in the wings! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Having said that..nice mean from ecm!

[bluearmy]

 ANYWEATHER if you believe the cross model ens then there is a direction of travel 

heights build to the nw 

the Atlantic trough then pushes in 

But at what latitude? 

and likely a cold scandi trough is forced south by the strengthening-AO at the same time 

does the Atlantic  trough undercut the Atlantic ridge ?   If so, does it head into Europe or does a developing Iberian ridge in response to the deepening  Atlantic trough force it ne across the U.K. ?

how the Atlantic trough meets the scandi trough dictates where any battleground zone would be - would it be cold enough ahead of the trough to generate that battleground in any case? 

way too many questions without an answer - and that’s if you even believe the week 2 ens !

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

Hope everyone is well. A wet start  to the day here in NE London this morning but feels very mild. As I said in my post last Friday I was going to wait until today to see what’s in the output and then decide whether to slam the brakes for this season. Unfortunately apart from those phantom charts 9 or 10 days out I am not seeing anything in the output that convinces me a pattern change to severe winter will develop. I know I may be jumping the gun and I may be wrong but apart from the far and few odd colder periods I don’t see much hope this morning.  Chasing F1 has been the story of this season and it’s been a wild goose chase. A season which a lot of experts thought had the right elements but has not delivered. I am sure there will be many unanswered questions that will be looked at. This is not a ramp or anything I just thought I put in context what I am seeing.  Thank you all for your contribution and it’s been such a pleasure seeing the old regulars. I am going into hibernation now till the storm season starts for the summer. Who knows if there is a sudden change I might join back on the  band wagon but for now take care all.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND???? 

regards

[Lukesluckybunch]

You would have to say well played to the gfs..it really hasn't budged from its output teasing us with better looking charts..let's get it right,ecm and ukmo have been all over the place..embarrassing!

[Blessed Weather]

Thought I'd take a peek at Zac Lawrence's excellent GEFS 10hPa minimaps. The 0z run from yesterday (not updated to today's yet) indicate the potential evolution of the sPV over the next couple of weeks. On the 15th Feb (T168) the vortex still largely intact with none of the 21 members or the GFS Op showing reversed zonal winds.

By the 20th Feb (T288) there are 7 members showing a split vortex with the remaining 14 plus GFS Op showing a displaced and highly stretched vortex - both displaced and split (main lobe) pushed to the Asian side of the NH. This date seems to represent the peak of the sPV distress with 16 members showing a reversal in zonal winds to easterly with only 5 members showing no reversal (no technical SSW) and retaining weak westerly zonal winds.

No more than a very slight recovery of the vortex by the 24th Feb (T384) with just 7 members by then showing positive (westerly) zonal winds. The GFS Op remaining negative (easterlies).

Whatever transpires, hopefully a very interesting period of weather watching coming up. Personally I love the unpredictability that a SSW throws into the weather mixing bowl.

Charts from: https://www.stratobserve.com/ens_ell_minis

[Ice Day]

 Lukesluckybunch Can't agree with you at all.  For example this mornings GFS 0z for 132 hrs

Yesterday's 0z for the same time

To suggest the GFS has, in some way, trumped the other models is incorrect.  It verifies behind the ECM and UKMO (and now the GEM) for good reason.

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

To suggest the GFS has, in some way, trumped the other models is incorrect.  It verifies behind the ECM and UKMO (and now the GEM) for good reason.

But you can't deny that ecm,is not as good even as last night..and with the gefs not interested also.!things never seem to improve,always go the other way..I was just saying that gfs has been reluctant to show us the dream charts..and going forward the likelyhood of very cold has decreased..the met are also not as confident..mentioning the Atlantic could come back in early March,which means the next 10-15 days are critical in getting the cold in..did I miss something is gem a good run??

Edited February 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[TEITS]

I do find the varied output amusing this morning. At +168 the GFS has SW,lys, UKMO W,lys for the England E,lys for Scotland, ECM N/NE,lys, JMA E,lys.

I don't agree with the comment "Chasing shadows at day 15" though. At the moment nobody knows what is going to happen but the fact is since yesterday we have seen a massive shift in the output. This shift being being towards a colder outlook that may even begin in 8 days time, not 15.

I shall be keeping an eye on these low pressure systems in the Atlantic at +72. We need these to ejaculate SE and not NE/N which is what the GFS does.

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

To suggest the GFS has, in some way, trumped the other models is incorrect.  It verifies behind the ECM and UKMO (and now the GEM) for good reason.

Sorry , I have to disagree. Gfs has outperformed ecm lots of times over the last 12 months. It may have well been the leader in years past but not anymore…..

[adrianh]

GFS does well when it's default setting of deepening lows swirling across the Atlantic turns out to be accurate (which is often the case as its our default weather).

It definitely picked up the path of the latest system much more accurately than UKMO/ECM though which were both miles out at T96

[bluearmy]

 ANYWEATHER there was a time more than a year ago that you would never have set gfs against ec 

Not sure when gfs op was last upgraded so I reckon that the difference must be the upgraded ec op from last year 

there are certain split flow scenarios where you know gfs is getting it wrong but in general, I never now ‘discount’ gfs whereas before, I would have always sided firmly with ec

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry , I have to disagree. Gfs has outperformed ecm lots of times over the last 12 months. It may have well been the leader in years past but not anymore…..

ANYWEATHER -exactly what happened just a few days ago....ecm was wrong at just 72h!! With the track of that low

[Derecho]

I think the EC and UKMO have a minor advantage but that's it. There are occasions when the GFS comes out on top such as this weekend but the differences are generally quite small.

My way of thinking these days is to look at all the model output. Then answer the question 'which model produces the mildest weather?' and I have my answer right there for the correct scenario 

We do have our background signals but they are not favourable for now so I think the milder solutions have it for next week and probably for much of February.

The global temperature anomaly chart sums up this winter perfectly. Cold nearby but we end up on the mild side of a battleground and endure the unsettled conditions that often come with it.

You can't help but wonder, had global temps been colder, would that cold pooling over Scandi have been more expansive and hence filtered into our daily weather a lot more? 

Edited February 9 by Derecho

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But you can't deny that ecm,is not as good even as last night

That's a different point Luke.  I was just challenging your statement 'well played the GFS', as its been just as inconsistent as the others, albeit it hasn't 'yet' shown the same solution as the Euro's.

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry , I have to disagree. Gfs has outperformed ecm lots of times over the last 12 months. It may have well been the leader in years past but not anymore…..

It is still the leader.  The verification stats show the ECM first, UKMO second.  Of course, the GFS, ICON, and GEM have the occasional victory, but overall, the Euro's still lead the way, but are not infallible.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

That's a different point Luke.  I was just challenging your statement 'well played the GFS', as its been just as inconsistent as the others, albeit it hasn't 'yet' shown the same solution as the Euro's.

Ok ..ecm over the past few weeks has shown..major pattern changes occasionally like developing a decent Scandi high with big easterlys..which of course hasn't came true..