Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

 Ali1977 BEEN SAYING THAT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...I DON'T THINK WERE ARE DONE WITH WINETR JUST YET

[Stephen W]

@nick sussex, yes the only thing keeping me hanging in there is the potential SSW forecast. It’s all still jam tomorrow and it’s wearing to see the continued mild/exceptional mild output being pushed in the short term output. The CET for this month is likely to be very mild even if we do scrape some colder temps towards the end.  It’s been a painful season of model watching that’s for sure.

[Duane S.]

Finally a pull back of the AH westwards is now trending later in the month. Any WAA in a NW /N / NE direction has been shown to be futile if southern heights and going to get filled back in.

Taking into account the background signals, which back up the above, there seems very little doubt that the final winter shot (or, window of opportunity) IS incoming for around the last week of the month and into March…

[Cambrian]

There are two ways of looking at this at a time like this. We either beat ourselves and the models up over how the winter hasn’t ended up like it was often modelled to, particularly at the longer ranges, or we accept the models for what they are - mathematical predictions that can be right or wrong to a range of extents, only ever a snapshot representation of some brilliant mathematical simulations, and that what we do in analysing them at any one time is part of a long term learning process as to the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches. 

For looking after my head and maintaining my enjoyment of such a great interest, there can, for me, only be one way forward. 

So we have another tease on the means for day 10 and after, this time offering the model punch-drunk hardcore some potential for a cold end to official winter. 

The beginning of it is around day 10 but is being consistently modelled, the extension of a trough into northwest Russia, here on the 0z EPS and GEFS. It’s interesting to note that at that stage, the EPS is firmer, more advanced on the development. 

 

The progression from there towards the 0z GEFS at day 15 is at the raunchier end of the winter 23/24 cold tease spectrum…

  

…the heights contours running down almost true north, a flow from the middle of Greenland, through Iceland to the middle of the UK and Ireland, the MSLP charts showing the computing of a low pressure system by then over the North Sea, the UK and Ireland under a cold, cyclonic regime, some proper cold showing in the T850 charts now.

Will it verify? Not exactly like that, that’s for sure, but it is what it is, a growing signal for a notably cold end to February. I’m pleased to see it - we’ll get the weather we’ll get, but in quite openly being interested in seeing a good fall of snow before winter’s end, I’m happier looking at this than at a continuation of the charts we’re looking at for the coming week.

Have a great end to the weekend.

[Dennis]

im still in for cold (i know it isnt easy ) 

[WINTRY WALES]

I know not strictly model related but there has been some chat about the consistent High pressure not setting up in the right place no more. After 25 years of skiing in the alps there has been a definite noticeable change to the weather. Long gone are the years of having to wear layers because of the cold. The most important thing to pack from the last 8!years or so is sun cream! Nearly always dry sunny and warm. Such a shame how our climate has changed.

[feb1991blizzard]

 Duane S.

Yes, although a little disappointed with EPS as they flatten again right at the end after briefly threaten  the ridge gaining lattitude, GEFS are good, also Yesterday's 12z ECM shows a strat split (of sorts) with questionable longjevity.

 

 

[blizzard81]

I must say that I've not really trusted model output over the weekends as much as I do on weekdays. This is mainly because I've seen so many flips at relatively short notice on the Monday morning output - mainly for the worse. Every so often though, albeit very rarely, they are flips for the better and I think this is going to be one of those ocassions

[Johnp]

Bit of an odd 6z run, with a raging polar vortex.  It’s going from bad to worse!

[nick sussex]

 Johnp

The GFS 06 hrs run didn’t read the script . It was supposed to throw a few scraps to us coldies.

Instead it’s delivered a horror show .

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Instead it’s delivered a horror show .

Absolutely nick..just too much energy to the northwest,to even give the chance of heights to build!

[Johnp]

 nick sussex Yes, this isn’t the sort of charts I was expecting during a SSW!

[Aiden2012]

I genuinely think it’s over, whatever is thrown at the pv it still seems to throw everything at us

[Johnp]

 Aiden2012 Yep, see you in November folks (or maybe summer if there’s a mega heatwave on the way).  Another day, another step away from cold blocked charts. 

[Aiden2012]

 Johnp aye see you then genuinely ready for sun and thunderstorms now, think this winter has took its toll on many of us this year.

[Sherry]

Only 2 weeks left of winter before we enter spring, and if anything spring temps have already arrived, no sign of any cold on the horizon according to the models so very much looks like an above average winter 

[johncam]

Just had a look at some of the forecasted temps over Spain and look away above the norm.

[Purga]

The next 10 days is almost unanimously mild acc. to GFS 06z. Finishes about as zonal a set up as one could imagine.

 

Very cold air exiting  North America's E Seaboard really firing up the jet.

I do admire those still hanging on in there with blind faith for something colder. The odd ground frost in favoured spots maybe?

Edited February 11 by Purga

[Lincs Observation]

Morning all

i know we are months away from Summer but with all this unpredictable energy and against the grain modelling is anyone casting one eye upstream for spring/summer signals, it’s been a dreadful winter thus far and the bells are starting to toll but it does make one begin to wonder if we will have an extreme summer too.

[Lukesluckybunch]

You won't find a worse mean at day 8!

[Paul]

Latest on the SSW and it's potential impacts in Nick's blog

Mild February looking likely now, but will a likely Sudden Stratospheric Warming lead to winter having a sting in its tail?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Despite signs at the beginning of the month that February would turn cold, now it looks like it will remain mild for much of the month. However, an SSW is likely in a week's time, and this could...

 

 

[Rain All Night]

12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z/18z deterministic runs, Sun 11th to Sat 17th (day 7)

The Asian models have made the most effort to entertain us this evening. ICON almost gives us back our phantom Scandi high. We can hope that the low which looks like it will pass through us between Wednesday and Friday will be the last most of us see of the Atlantic for a while.

12z/18z ensemble means, Sun 11th to Sun 25th (day 15)

It remains unclear for how long after 17th Feb we can expect to keep the Atlantic out. But perhaps I needn't worry, as the most interesting feature of these outputs (excepting the GEM) continues to be the suggestion that a cold trough from the northeast could pay us a visit in the last week of February.

0z/6z deterministic runs, Sun 11th to Sun 18th (day 7)

We begin with our current northwesterly flow, followed by a brief weak ridge from the south. It then remains unclear exactly when and how the little Atlantic low will intrude itself upon us later in the week.

GFS, please don't be a trendsetter (again) with your denial, on both your 0z and 6z runs, of even the most modest build of heights northwards after the little Atlantic low has passed. ICON sort of seems to agree with GFS, which I seem to remember also being the case the last time the GFS started to dissent.

Those models which do allow the heights northward insist on that annoying "kink" to the northwest (I don't have the vocabulary to describe what it is! It's visible on the ensemble means too)

0z/6z ensemble means, Sun 11th to Mon 26th (day 15)

For anyone looking out for a dry spell, we look like we could just about stay under a mean ridge from roughly 17th to 20th Feb.

GEM almost wants to bring back our phantom Scandi high.

ECM 0z and GEFS 6z disappoint by weakening the eventual Scandi trough signal seen on the GEFS 0z and the previous ECM ensemble suite, though it has not disappeared completely.

Edited February 11 by Rain All Night

[Ladyofthestorm]

SSW has not happened yet and it can take 10 to 14 days for its affects to be felt. 

The medium range models are notorious for being sluggish picking up the impacts of an SSW . 

@Cambrian has the right ideas using the GEFS longer range . Look at the trend rather than each individual model run.  Look at the patterns . Blocking to North and West. Low pressure to the east and south. 

Winter ain't done with us just yet. 

 

 

 

[phil nw.]

Yes it's quite startling how warm this month looks like turning out despite the +ve height anomalies across the polar field.

Todays Euro view and the 850 anomalies to day 10.

 

The cold air well away from us and much of Europe.  The Atlantic influence continues until week 2 with just the odd ridge being flattened quickly in the mobility.

It's not really until beyond day 10 when we see gefs showing  stronger Atlantic ridging along side a Scandinavian trough develop with colder air moving south across the UK.

This period at the end of the month may give us one last shot of Winter but can we have confidence that this will happen after all the let downs?

I guess it's worth hanging in there for a bit longer whilst these ensembles show ,even though they are at range ,but it certainly has been a battle to maintain some Wintery  interest as we approach the tail end of the season.

[Badders]

 Ladyofthestorm There was talk of a QTR. So could effects of the SSW be seen a lot sooner?