Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[swfc]

 nick sussex Time to look forward to warmer days nick

[Drifter]

Things going from bad to worse on GFS, it’s actually quite incredible.

It looks like one of those nightmarish January’s from the early 90’s. 

[Drifter]

SSW?

[daz_4]

I'm chasing record warm February so pretty good start this evening from GFS! 

[LRD]

 daz_4 Up to yesterday the central England temp was running at 4 degrees C above average. Utterly remarkable

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download.url

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

GFS 12z is as Westerly a run as you can get

Edited February 12 by LRD

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Drifter Or rather looks like the nightmarish mild Januarys of 2007, 2008 or 2020.

[billy]

 TEITS

MSN

WWW.MSN.COM

 

[Kentspur]

Well there you have it lots of bashing of ECM and UKMO and praise for the American model but GFS 12z op ended up a huge mild outlier still a downwards ensembles trend

 

Edited February 12 by Kentspur

[Kasim Awan]

Very likely February's CET will be atleast 6C.

[bluearmy]

Next weeks attack from the Atlantic long wave trough is now at latitude Scotland on the gefs 

a few days ago it was into the southern half of the U.K. as higher heights to our west and  nw deflected it south.  More evidence that everything is verifying 10 degrees further north than we need.???

 

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

Yes, although the trough is sinking into Europe a bit towards end of suite, giving us just a smidgeon of hope of a N'ly end W2 beginning W3.

[phil nw.]

 bluearmy

The mean ridging behind as the trough heads towards Scandinavia could bring the colder air south.

It is whether the high can gain enough latitude to bring something decent ,it seems our only route to a final Winter's hurrah by the looks.

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Kasim Awan Is the current number of 6*C+ CET Februarys in the last 13 years a record for such a period?

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard  phil nw.  although you wouldn’t bet against that pattern verifying further north than currently modelled aswell 

[nick sussex]

And yet another change on the ECM .

It’s  becoming a total embarrassment at longer range . We’ve had a series of fails from the ECM .

 

[AO-]

Good evening. Looks like the continents (far east) are rather cold(ish) and inbetween it is a nightmare. Wrong side of the ocean, that's for sure. Wonder what the weather is like in Vancouver atm. This winter van be written of. Days are getting longer, so a dry period would be nice. But the latest runs are getting wetter. I'm not sure what the reliable forecast horizon is at the moment, but models have swapped a lot the past few days with GFS seemingly top of the bunch. Not a good sign as it was the worst synoptically.

 

[Chesil View]

Any ridging attempts just getting steam rollered at the moment on the ecm.

[knocker]

Not that the my opinion is worth diddly squat in here but the development of yet another Nor'easter  and it's subsequent track is having ramifications downstream regarding HP amplification.

Edited February 12 by knocker

[Kentspur]

The day 10 ECM shows a NWly 22nd Feb but if you look at the GFS ensembles this is too early for the main plunge to atleast get the mean to -5c 850 HPA around 3 days after ECM ends, so unless we see a progression of potential brought forward for me any possible faint interesting a cold spell is still out of reach of ECM/UKMO&GEM except in EC clusters and extended ensembles etc thats if anyone has anyone has any patience left. In the mean time a warm week ahead for Europe once more

[Ali1977]

Day 4,8,10 strat temps - I don’t know why people are discounting the chance of something very cold late Feb and ignoring op charts for now - just keep an eye on the ENS for another few days till the ops get a handle on the SSW!! Winter is coming - finally ️️️

 

I’ll add FI - destruction complète!! 

Edited February 12 by Ali1977

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Geffs ensembles 850 hpa still showing well below the mean with the operation one to discard so 10 days out or so still looking like a cold incursion also changeable with a possibility of some white stuff before this winter ends.Will have to except charts to chop and change for a while till the charts get a handle on the situation and SSW making it even more difficult.

[Sherry]

Plenty of mild going ahead on the models this evening! Actually very mild for the time of year 

[johncam]

 Ali1977 Ali I am sure the models will compute these in their op runs?

[Daniel*]

Yes, this really is disastrous performance from ECM gone from super blocked this morning to Atlantic influence. It appears to be falling into line with GFS, the verification stats reflect that. 

 

 

[Stephen W]

@Kasim Awan I think we could well see a CET in excess of 7C in the absence of a significant cold spell (which seems likely) and continued very mild days/nights (also likely!) given the current output. We are already at 7.8C. I have to remind myself we are in February and not April !