Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[snowray]

Omnipresent Azores high back to it's usual winter location, up it comes, game over.

I often ask myself, how on earth can a block/northern blocking ever set up in any favourable position for sustained UK cold, even if teleconnections/AO/NAO/PNA and of course SSW's are looking red hot when we see this same pattern year in year out in our winters? Yes some of the time, but surely not always these days. I know there has been a lot of discussion in the past with regards to the Azores high being so far north and west in winter, maybe it is our default pattern to an extent, but much of Western Europe has had hardly any snow, or rain, yet again this year even in mountain areas like in Northern Italy, it's not just our little island.  

All very strange if you ask me.

 

 

 

[raz.org.rain]

 Metwatch I didn't think it would be long before we started seeing such outputs for spring!

[WINTRY WALES]

 Catacol

I agree….just as a seasoned skier over the last 25 years the difference in climate is extremley noticeable. Gone are the days of having to wear layers, and sure snow cover in the resort villages. Really depressing the acceleration climate change has taken on Europe it seems. Irreversible now and a worry for our future generations 

[RJBingham]

I know it's committing a sin to mention this, but the MetO only have winds between west and south up until the end of the week around here, max temp not that cold either   

[snowray]

 WINTRY WALES

Indeed. I was up at 1.300m on the Italian/Austran border not long ago and saw fresh snowfall, but at 1,200m slightly further down it was wet. 

 

[snowray]

Not looking too impressive any more.

Edited February 19 by snowray

[Cambrian]

12z GFS op is a good workout. 

Day 1-3 : Lateral lunge

 

Day 3-7 : Dumbbell curtsey

 

Then rest.

Then repeat.

Day 9-10

 

Day 10-12

 

Then lie down flat and think of spring.

 

*No gym enthusiasts were harmed in the writing of this post. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfs is like don't bother let's get spring in. But look ECM and it's a different story. Cyclonic episodes wrapped in cold air at times and if you fast forward to day 10,we have some serious cold over Greenland..follow the isobars and we are dragging that down..yes there will be moderation of the flow,but I tell you what I wouldn't be suprised to see the met being busy in the next week or so with snow cropping up for those who didn't expect it,and a fair bit of snow for areas further NW and with elevation. 

So perhaps we still have a few more dramas to play out before all is said and done..Will be keen to see if tonight's zonal winds keep with the trend for the strat to be hit again come early March.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pv is taking a kick in the groin here folks..yet again and it's stronger than last night. Mean has really tanked into negative territory tonight.

Edited February 19 by MATTWOLVES 3

[WYorksWeather]

Fairly brief post tonight, but worth noting that GFS was at the top of its ensemble tonight. I have my bias in that I'd quite like the GFS outcome with a warm start to spring, but it wouldn't be objective of me not to mention where it sits in the ensembles.

A bit closer to our current timeframe, interesting to see such a big spread in temperatures as soon as the 25-26th - probably means we shouldn't take any output into March very seriously yet. That period could well prove crucial in determining whether we have the mildest February on record - if the Azores high does rotate in such a way as to allow a brief return of southerly/south-westerly influence, it probably all but guarantees a record-breaking CET. However, if not, and we stay cold, the record may yet survive.

Worth mentioning as well that there is possibly the beginnings of a signal for a rise in pressure going into early March. A lot of uncertainty, but even if we don't get a particularly settled pattern, I do hope this comes off, as a break from the rain is very much needed. Again though, I wouldn't take it too seriously, as we probably have to get past the uncertainty around the 25th-26th first before the mean will start to show the direction of travel.

The ECM is still rolling out, so I'll be back again later, briefly.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Big reversal possible in March.

[Frigid]

 feb1991blizzard Pretty extreme that, and a lot more notable than the failed excuse of a reversal we saw a few days back. Hoping to see more upgrades 

[feb1991blizzard]

 Frigid

More importantly than big though it must be sustained, you don't want the vortex lower down in the Atmosphere and high up trying to relocate to opposite sides of the pole at the same time, that's asking for trouble and nearly always ends in disaster, spli would be better but no sign of that.

EPS not bad in FI.

[Daniel*]

For all said about background signals ultimately this winter have experienced a strong El Niño… the most hostile ENSO for cold weather. Since 1950 there has been only 4 such winters…1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 none of these were cold, often very mild. In midst of already higher global temperatures, it cannot be startling to see why we have struggled and southern air streams have been powerful with record warm SSTs. Next winter it’s very likely we will see La Niña conditions so hopefully a fresh slate…

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, Mon 19th to Mon 26th (day 7)

UKMO's Atlantic high looks a little more robust than the other two, I guess, but it's not gaining much latitude.

0z ensemble means, Mon 19th to Tue 5th (day 15)

ECM remains keen on a second trough coming in from the west around 29th Feb, and GEM lends support for this. GEFS looks different earlier with the Atlantic high sinking rather than toppling, and an unclear signal afterwards.

The proportion of runs showing (mid-latitude) high pressure in deep FI (4th/5th Mar) looks to have increased again slightly, for what that may be worth.

12z deterministic runs, Tue 20th to Mon 26th (day 7)

Choose your toppler!

12z ensemble means, Tue 20th to Tue 5th (day 15)

All agree on the signal for a further polar maritime low to be thrown at us after the Atlantic ridge has toppled (or sunk), with differing timing.

From day 13 onwards we see agreement on a continued Azores high presence (especially on GEFS) and a general rise in heights (especially on ECM).

Could the ultimate legacy of the stratosphere this year, after apparently denying us a cold heart of winter, be to condemn us to a late spring?

Edited February 19 by Rain All Night

[len]

 RJBingham Why post charts with no indication of what they are please?
No info. no dates, just coloured maps!
From what source, dates, periods, anomalies, pressure, temps????

[damianslaw]

 Daniel* Interesting to note the last 3 big el ninos winters were followed by cold incursions at times in the following Marches and Aprils.

Back to the models, differences to a degree with ECM and GFS, the ECM showing a cleaner dig of the trough, GFS continues with secondary low development along the base. The far outer reaches not worth commenting on in these fluid set ups, prone to marked change. 

Edited February 19 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

Hm - plot thickens with the 12z ECM. I mentioned the importance of one or two milder days for a potential February record, and the ECM has only gone and done it!

Ensemble

A milder period from 27th-29th, which if verified, would all but guarantee the fall of the CET record.

Meteogram

ECM is going for largely average or above average temperatures, with the exception of the 23rd and 24th. Largely driven by mild nights. Easily enough for a record if this verifies. The wind plume shows a turn to northerlies, but relatively brief, and then a return to westerlies is favoured, and then uncertainty into March increases markedly.

SSTs

Still declining out to day 10, little change beyond that, still looks like the end of the month will see the turn, probably a week or two later. SSTs at days 0, 5, 10 and 15.

Summary

Bit of a discrepancy between the GFS and ECM means - are we going near to slightly cooler than average fairly consistently for the rest of February, or will there be warm sectors? A record-breaking February will depend on the details.

[Rain All Night]

I haven't in recent months been looking at height anomaly charts for the ensemble means like I used to, but this evening I did, and I'd forgotten how much the mean height anomalies from climate average can leave one with a different impression than the mean heights alone. "Lower than average heights over Iberia" was not one of my main takeaways from looking at the ensemble mean height charts from this afternoon's model runs on Meteociel, but that is one of the more prominent features highlighted by the anomaly charts for 5th March (day 15).

And then, I look at all the members of the ECM ensemble on that day, and sure enough, I do indeed see more members than you'd typically expect to see showing lower than usual heights over Iberia, so the anomaly isn't misleading me (assuming that the ensemble members themselves are any good in the first place):

Edited February 19 by Rain All Night

[Derecho]

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

For all said about background signals ultimately this winter have experienced a strong El Niño… the most hostile ENSO for cold weather. Since 1950 there has been only 4 such winters…1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16

I don't think you can really compare the El Nino's from any of those winters to this one. The January MEI values (which give a more comprehensive overview of ENSO state for those 4 winters and this one are as follows:
 

1973 - 2.02
1983 - 2.6
1998 - 2.2
2016  - 2

January 2024 only had an MEI index of 0.7... which makes it only the 32nd largest El Nino since 1871 (though the 3.4 region anomalies were a bit stronger).

Indeed January 2010 had a value of 0.9. Jan 1969 and 1940-1942 also had higher or similar MEI values but those winters were very blocked.

So I don't think ENSO is to blame for this winter, more a case of climate change and bad luck with the knock on effect of those crazy high SSTs to the SW of Spain leeching into Europe. Hopefully next winter will see a better roll of the dice. December 2022 was a decent effort for the first 20 days before the fine margins worked against us.

Edited February 20 by Derecho

[Rain All Night]

 RJBingham len

You can get an annotated versions of ECMWF charts that are better for copying and pasting into your posts here: click the share button at the edge of the chart, choose "Copy link", paste the copied link into your browser's address bar, and the annotated version of the chart will load, which you can then right-click on and copy as normal, for pasting into your forum post.

Edited February 20 by Rain All Night

[RJBingham]

GFS going mild again after a brief average blip. 

[winterof79]

[bluearmy]

06z gfs op fi……..

Checks watch ….…

waits for someone to mention Iberian ridge …….

(don’t fall into the trap !) 

[Sherry]

Looks very mild after a few cooler days