Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[minus10]

 Cheshire Freeze

..yes looking closer at the uk gfs0z it is a very wet picture for sw areas and pretty wet from north Wales down to London for next couple of weeks..

..no wonder with this being continually being shown on gfs..

...as i alluded to yesterday the position of the blocking high failing to prevent the atlantic trough from coming up around the base to south western areas..

..those precip spikes keep appearing..

..ec maybe bit drier but fair few rain spikes on the ens..

...the drier spell many , including me are hoping for still not looking certain...

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs horror show next week...the low doesn't disrupt and move east..instead it blows up,,and pumps up milder air!

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch Just one option Luke

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, MJB said:

Just one option Luke

Yes marcus..thankfully the ecm and ukmo are better!

[markw2680]

 Lukesluckybunch good had enough of this dreadful wet winter

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

good had enough of this dreadful wet winter

Mark I agree...it's been terrible for cold!

[ANYWEATHER]

Well perhaps a major weather pattern starting to develop, Hopefully that’s the last of the rain by Monday next, and a drier pattern shifts over the Uk giving France and Iberia all of the rain! Once that pattern establishes itself it’ll be with us for a long time….

[MJB]

Control setting something up 

[Rain All Night]

13 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z ensemble means, out to Thu 14th (day 15)

These means make me feel as though a modest dry/continental spell some time from the 6th March onwards is perhaps a little more likely than not at the moment, though some miserable outcomes still remain on the table. I don't feel we've learned a huge amount from this afternoon's runs.

12z deterministic runs, on Wed 6th (day 7)

I'll take ECM or ICON home tonight - Scandi highs are pretty.

  

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Thu 15th (day 15)

I'm looking at the ensemble means in a slightly more pessimistic light this morning; it's possible we (or at least, most of us) might only see a few dry days from the 6th before the Atlantic trough lodges itself to our southwest and causes misery to those not sufficiently far away from it.

Perhaps more members late in these runs suggesting that there will be a loss of amplification towards mid-March, though that is less apparent on the GEFS.

0z/6z deterministic runs, on Thu 7th (day 7)

As with last night, ECM and ICON still the most appealing to my tastes.

 

Edited February 29 by Rain All Night

[Metwatch]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Best ens member -

Nah, these are

Edited February 29 by Metwatch

[KTtom]

 Ali1977 Although T-0hrs is not yet upon us, indications are once again that those charts are utterly useless. Even the hilliest parts of Wales only have a rain warning out. Modelling falling snow and snow depth charts really have a long way to go they have been diabolical these last few years, constantly over exaggerating wintry precipitation .   

[andymusic]

 KTtom not sure that's correct - anything around 200m and above should defo get sleet and snow and even levels below that could see some form of wintry precip over the next 48 hrs plus

[Frosty.]

The Cfs says winter…erm, cough, cough,…I mean early spring!..might deliver some proper cold uppers! ….yes indeed…honestly though, what a shockingly poor winter it has been..and I am looking forward to the first spring heatwave!…blasphemy…woteva!.. I’m with young Sidney!  

[jellybaby1969]

 andymusic

If we go back a few weeks met office had  amber snow warnings for a large part of Wales ..schools closed on this warning. ... It actually turned out to be a very wet affair !

[andymusic]

 jellybaby1969 agreed the call was a bit wrong on that one - have a feeling this time it'll be different for us in Wales

Edited February 29 by andymusic

[Cloud 10]

UKMO day 7 has a decent cold pool being dragged our way.

 

[Frosty.]

 andymusic Aye, for sure, the first day of the meteorological spring is looking bitterly cold!!!! …enjoy! … I think any snow accumulation would soon melt, on lower ground at least…a pretty poor return  considering the last 3 months...................... ( winter)......... for the most part..anyone agree?  

 

 

Edited February 29 by Frosty.

[Sherry]

 Frosty. bitterly cold? lol showing 8 degrees for me which is pretty average 

[andymusic]

 Frosty. pretty cold round these parts - 3c and at our height will be around 1-2c

[SLEETY]

 Cloud 10 the HLB returns for spring again,never saw it all winter  apart from briefly in early january.

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

anything around 200m and above should defo get sleet and snow and even levels below that could see some form of wintry precip

I still can't see much settling below 200 or even 250m. The airmass ahead of the low isn't cold enough for it to stick lower down.

Forecast for Blaenau which is at around 210-220m is for mainly sleet. Met Office would issue a snow warning rather than a rain focused on as well if the risk was higher for low lying areas.

 

Edited February 29 by Metwatch

[Gowon]

The GFS run is cold and dry from the 5th  

[February1978]

 Gowon dry is good for me!

[ANYWEATHER]

With the upcoming expected pattern change coming ,we in Britain may become high and dry at last, but Iberia and southern Europe better be prepared for some relentless rains and cold temperatures. It will be just the start of some major rainfall coming up for Iberia for instance and it will persist for many weeks,  if you're booking a holiday to Iberia or southern Europe for instance in March and April , Think again!!! 

[nick sussex]

The ECM might well have some coldies coming out of hibernation !

I’m not a lover of spring cold which often leaves one feeling underwhelmed at the good winter synoptics  arriving too late but it would be rude not to indulge the ECM for a few runs ! 

Edited February 29 by nick sussex