Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[WYorksWeather]

About the only thing we can say is that there's an increasing signal for things to warm up a bit, possibly towards middle or end of next week. All it looks like delivering is slightly warmer rain though. The OP goes off on one with some cold, but it has very little backing.

At this stage, I think we just need to wait to even see if a signal starts to appear. There's no even really the beginning of anything both warm and dry as far as I can tell, on pretty much any model.

[B87]

 Womble I'd have thought a typical April would have an extended dry and settled spell at some point, it is the 2nd driest month of the year after all!

[Sun dog]

Looking on the bright side at least the SST anomaly is dropping. Hopefully a bit less moisture heading in our direction. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Depends where you are I guess.

May and September are by far the driest months in these parts (NW England) in my experience.

[WYorksWeather]

And on it goes. The 12z ECM still shows no end in sight at day 10. About all you can say is maybe a signal for the Azores high to pick up a bit? But it'd have to ridge a long way north from its position at day 10 to do anything useful for us in terms of dry weather. We do flip to warm rain though at least, which I suppose I'll take, as at least it'll be a bit more pleasant in the breaks between showers.

 

[WYorksWeather]

Right, next straw-clutching attempt. Does the CFSv2 have any signal for drier and warmer weather at any point in the next four weeks? In a word - no. Wetter and colder than average for the first week, then wetter and milder than average, possibly quite warm especially in weeks 3 and 4. That's it, no dry weather in sight, because of course there isn't.

Not even going to bother posting the EC46 - I've already looked at it and it tells the same story. There's no point depressing everyone any more.

Right, that's a write off. On and on we go. At some point the pattern will change, but alas, not today or in the next 7-10 days most likely. Another few days of this and we scratch the first third of April for warm and dry weather, and then we go again.

 

 

[stodge]

Evening all

To put a little meat on the bones of some of the rather brief comments...

The deep LP dominates the weather over the Easter weekend sitting either over Ireland or just to the west so rain or showers for many, driest in the east.

After Easter, we then see the trough elongate and disrupt between heights from the north west coming south and heights trying to push north from the south.

The elongated trough sends a series of LP over southern Britain on a southerly tracking jet so more rain, not too cold though not that warm either. 

Any hints of something more settled are far too far out to be given much credence at this point. We need to see a break in the trough which would promote heights and that may come as a deeper trough stalls in far off mid Atlantic. Next week looks all about shallower features pushing through in the trough.

Edited March 27 by stodge

[damianslaw]

 Cheshire Freeze In the Lake District April on average is the driest month, its not a month renowned for being predominantly atlantic driven.. 

Alas the outlook remains very unsettled into April.

Trying to recall the last time we endured such a low pressure dominated period from the start of the year.. right into April. Typically a high pressure spell sets up some stage in the spring.. hold that hope..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Ahead of the main deep cyclone there is a developing cyclonic Centre from Northwest France as this continues to move into the UK with a Lowering isotherm on its Western & Northwestern flank there is potential for a snow event particularly across Wales, most of this likely at higher elevations though cannot be discounted at lower levels too.

This trend was evident on the ensembles last night, still damaging wind threat into the South Coast but a concerning trend with a main damaging wind risk centering into Southeast England so I'd think warnings will cover the South Coast as discussed but possibly higher category warning criteria for Southeast England Thursday

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

About the only thing we can say is that there's an increasing signal for things to warm up a bit, possibly towards middle or end of next week. All it looks like delivering is slightly warmer rain though. The OP goes off on one with some cold, but it has very little backing.

Problem is warmer rain will probably mean damper, more moisture laden air than currently and a risk of really, really dull conditions and quite horrendous pervading damp.

It was unexpectedly cold today with unexpectedly dry air during the afternoon which made it much less unpleasant than the synoptics suggest. Any increase in temp and DP with the same synoptics will produce truly hellish conditions...

 

 

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Some hope of something better on GFS 12z from around the 9th, when a ridge appears from out of nowhere and stays put until the end of the run. Seems to be an outlier though according to other posts.

 

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

I’m not sure what weather enthusiast could get enthusiastic about that pattern. I realise some people like rain, especially after a dry period. But not after 10 months surely. Everything is just so damp. And boring.

I don't get why cyclonic SW-lies are persisting so deep into spring. What's happened to the normal blocking at this time of year, when some kind of N-ly or E-ly, or anticyclone, usually sets up?

 

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Womble Typical April weather for Tasmania or southern New Zealand, perhaps. Not here.

If very dull, very wet weather is normal for April, one of the driest months of the year, I hate to think what normal weather for the rest of the year is like!

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

 Summer8906 Maybe if we end up having a really troughy March and April, we might have an anticyclonic September and October for a change in compensation (I know it doesn't work like that).

A few runs have hinted at heights trying to nose in towards the UK with hotter air sneaking into southern Spain by week 2 in April but I won't hold my breath. It's as if we are stuck in autumnal Atlantic rut now, but not quite with the same autumnal clout that pushes things along. Yuck.

[TallPaul]

Apologies, off topic, but what the ****??? Currently snowing heavily in various parts of Devon! See attached, I'm just 25m above sea level, 500m away from the water. 

Further updates on the South/SWest forum... 

[Ydoj]

Yep. Huge flakes coming down in Braunton, north Devon. Beginning to settle on cars etc.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think the below would explain the sleet and snow reports for some of you in the South-West of the UK, even for lower levels.

Using examples at both 10pm and 11pm on the 18Z GFS, it has places such as Devon just on the Western flank of the little circular disturbance/Low drifting North from the main Low to the South-West of Ireland. It also means some of you guys down South-West end up being under somewhat colder 850 hPa temperatures between -1*C to -3*C. That, along with the precipitation being particularly heavy towards Western/South-Western parts of the UK (as well as the fact that the temperatures at the 500 hPa level are very cold with those blues and purples - essentially a very deep upper trough) is likely aiding in dragging down freezing air to low levels in some places, thus the surprise sleet and snow some of you are getting. Especially over higher ground. Though I don’t consider myself to be an expert, that’s probably the reason for it.

[Penrith Snow]

If you thought the weather couldn't get any worse then look at this mornings GFS, after a brief lull on Easter Monday the though out rest moves back over the UK as a new area of low pressure heads towards England and Wales, this sits around for days before another even more intense low arrives in FI.

Meantime pressure builds stronyly to the North so the jet stream has nowhere to go except Western Europe.

Meanwhile The Azores Ridge extends into Iberia so after some welcome rain the drought returns to Spain, which is something they don't need.

When I watched last night as rain turned to heavy snow across South West England and Wales on a South Westerly airflow in late March I thought this is it, its the End of Days  

Andy

[knocker]

A good example of evaporative cooling over Devon yesterday

[John88B]

The models showing no sign of an end to the unsettled regime that has gripped the country for what seems like months on end and as I type yet another band of heavy rain moves in from the south west.

Fortunately nature has a way of evening things out so one would hope that sometime soon the models start showing some promise of a prolonged spell of drier, warmer weather. This bad run has to end eventually. 

Cheers all.

[ANYWEATHER]

Even in the silly timeframe , Europe is very unsettled, 

[damianslaw]

 ANYWEATHER Can just about make out the UK amongst the blue..

Will give firmer thoughts on Easter 4 day period later, it has chopped and changed somewhat, will we see at least one dry day?

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

 damianslaw I hope so

[SunnyG]

 John88B Nature also allows major flooding, huricanes, tnunamis, etc so I wouldn't put too much faith in that if I were you.

[Fen Wolf]

 Penrith Snow yes it is “end of days” scenario lately ain’t it

Let’s all chip in and live in the canaries and re establish there together as a community